The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 30th August 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Due to low intensity of fighting and only minor changes on the ground, I’ve decided to reduce the number of summaries. Starting August 9, there’ll be two summaries per week, released on Wednesday and Sunday.
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novojehorivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- The enemy made minor gains in Serebryansky forest. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bilohorivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Kurdyumivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Ukrainian forces regained previously lost positions north of Krasnohorivka. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Ukrainian troops pushed south of Rivnopil, and advanced beyond a nearby waterbody towards Pryiutne. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Staromayorske
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Ukrainian forces have breached the enemy first line of defense near Verbove and reached the outskirts of the settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Mala Tokmachka
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- Ukrainian soldiers raised the flag in Dacha area north of Oleshky. However, the presence of Ukrainian forces in this area have been known for quite a while. There is no change on the map.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
So, this is it. It is September and we will likely get answers concerning the counteroffensive this month. It is pretty much getting thru the defensive lines this month, or try again next year. Ukraine may be able to extend this into October, but probably only if Russia is already crumbling.
Russian losses as reported by MoD Ukraine, August update.
Russias worst month in 2023.
September just may bring movement on the frontline…
Jerome seems to have “closed” the “War in Ukraine”, if so, these updates may be my last here, exactly one year after starting them.
Russian losses as reported by Oryx, August update.
and the Ukrainian.
kudos Max
so what? they have unlimited resources of men and equipment from china
yes yes, and nukes and wunderwaffen and brics and golden rubles and power world has never seen.
I dont get your irony? :
So bottom line, talking about loses does not really get closer to war being over.
War can be over today, if Putin says hello boys, lets go home. Given recent modern battlefield firepower and R ability to field around 400k people/year (pay, feed, equip, logistic), thay can sacrifice 3 million people, but in time, not at once, they cannot overflow UAF. China so far is providing double use goods, not full mil support, still low enough to keep going, but not replace losses.
Agree here – war can be over today and only if putler would pull out troops. I will tell even more – it wont be over until putler lives, he will never end this war, he cant and wants. Once he will die (I bet it will be heart attack or stroke) everything will collapse.
well, i dont own crystal ball, but current regime does everything they can to piss off their soldiers, so personally cant rule out 1917 to repeat it itself, that would flush him out before he dies of natural causes.
Since history does not offer clear path, can happen, his successor will tighten screws and try steam more due to nationalist bs (hawk wing/siloviki) before some sort of collapse (morale, economic, military – dont know), and maybe then there will be Weimar republic willing to negotiate (swans).
or better say Lenin doctrine to preserve own state, give up consessions.
Due to the deteriorating economic situation and instability, Putin can end the war while still in power. When both sides are willing to negotiate. To do this, however, Ukraine must give up part of its territory to Russia, either Crimea or Donbass. Possibly Putin could be talked about, but in return for the lifting of the economic sanctions.
There is no need for Ukraine to conceed any territory to Russia. Russia shall negotiate its withdrawal (in return of lifting of sanctions), nothing more.
Forget it Kay. Russia will not give up a single centimeter of Ukraine while Putin is in power and likely even those coming after him won’t. Even the diaspora Russians in Berlin want Russia to win. The sanctions hurt, but they won’t make Russia give in. And anyways, it would be a mistake for Ukraine to give up land. That is just an invitation for more. Russia has to be beaten out of Ukraine.
sad but true
This
Finland gave up land after the Winter War. And the Russians left them alone after that.
Giving up land is a bad idea, but they may get to the point where it’s the best of several bad options (I don’t think they’re at that point yet).
Well yes, there are scenarios where Ukraine will be forced and or ready to give up some land. I doubt that Finnland is a valid example. Russia is basically fighting for the existence of its Empire. I doubt that anybody in Russia ever thought that Finnland is a necessary part for that, but Ukraine… Let me rephrase the above:
I think it would be a mistake for Ukraine and the West to accept the current Frontline. If Ukraine gets full NATO and EU membership guaranteed, that would change for Ukraine, but not for the West. This Russia needs to be stopped cold, like Germany back in the days. If we don’t solve this problem now, it will hunt us all.
Ukraine lacks the resources to kick Russia out of the country. There are just too many Russians in the country and the front line is too big.
The UAF could still recapture Crimea and the south. But there is too much scorched earth in eastern Ukraine (Donbass) and the question is whether Ukraine needs Donbass the way it is now.
Does Ukraine really want to reintegrate separatist areas for peace? Then there will never be peace
While Donbas is important, Crimea is golden grail both for Putin and UA, personally dont think UA can get Crimea in exchange of Donbas. Still any legalization of concession would invite Russia for later, cause we seen already what Putin´s word mean since 2002. Its a sheet of paper good for wiping your …
Yes Kay, there will never be peace with this Russia. There may be no fighting, but this Russia will always want to destroy Ukraine and bring it back into the Empire. If Ukraine wants a stable peace it needs to beat Russia so badly that it is done with this shit or it needs deterrence a la full NATO membership. And that would mean that NATO needs Ukraine to beat Russia so badly that it… Read more »
This shit. Bottom line, if we want a stable peace, Russia needs to be beat badly so it is done with this shit. I would guesstimate that this entails a very long war where Russia is at least beaten back to something like the 24.2.22 line.
But externally … very unlikely. NATO does not even want Russia to be completely beaten by the UKR.
Selensky triggered last week that he would rather negotiate now than in a few months and that Ukr is even willing to approach Rus in the territorial dispute. The main thing is that the war is over.
The first post is waiting for activation. Then the second also makes sense
I believe that Russia can only be beaten out from the inside. So popular uprising, revolution, civil war, military coup whatever. Russia is a very unstable state, with a high potential for conflict. I hope it will be added sooner or later. Everything is just a matter of time …
Russia must be destabilized so that the war ends without the UKR.
There is no separatist area. The seperatists scored only 2% in the last free elections (2012). It was a FSB/GRU operation, with russian officers pretending to be ukrainian separatists.
The LNR and DNR sympathizers can no longer be expelled. And so the Donbass remains unstable even at the end of the war.
That won’t be a problem. After WW2, the collaborateurs were judged, imprisonned, or killed. And then, there was peace.
Well no… The “collaborators” occupied Germany for over 40 years. My wish for the UKR is that at some point it will get all its territories back and that RUS will no longer pose a threat. But I fear that it will take a long time. As long as the current RU elite and politicians are still alive and in power, RU will always be a threat to UKR.
The whole old RU generation has to go and a new one that is more cosmopolitan and liberal. Or a domestic political revolution and revolt… One can only destroy Putin from within.
Maybe there will soon be a Wagner mutiny in Moscow…
i think youre wrong here and mix two things or three. For centuries they consider UA their territory (or any other they want), so its not about generation, one or multiple -its their Golden Horde heritage. For at least century (since 1917) theyre killing or expelling any liberal inteligence in country, even Navalskyj is same imperialistic pig like others, so thats about leaders or people,
and last its people, famous muziki, with deep sad R soul you keep reading since Puskin, Dostojevskij and others that suffer both mentally and physically combined with apathy and resignation, also for centuries. Most of them were born to obey and not led to be individualistic and responsible for their own choices. They “tried” democracy in 90s and ever since, they got sentiment for USSR.
and since no one can occupy R due to nukes, there is no Ger or Japan after the WW2, rather WW1, R licking its wounds and making plans to come after everyone else later, no matter the leader (i still take Gorby as bright exception in their history, cant rule it out new one like this, still, he got overthrown and core of the nation is same for centuries), plus their famous vranyo mentality.
I mean anything is possible, but probably unlikely. There might be 10 to 20M of “peaceful” or “liberal” russians, not everyone is same, but there is no strong opposition, even outside and even them are partially imperialist, leaving little hope to healthy collaboration, rather believing in Iron curtain 2 at least on western borders. Even russian diaspora living in west is indoctrinated.
if UA liberates Donbas, they will have enormous task how to behave. Pro UA left vastly, R imported its people to colonize. They wont be able to send 2 or 3M people in prison. They either try to live together with all bad that happened between them, distrust or they can move them behind borders like after ww2.Tough choices either way.
Also one of the examples of the mentality is, that R soldiers complain to big vozd czar about salaries, equip, corruption, their superiors acting badly, but nothing about “unjust” war, killing innocent civilians and send them home and thats people with first hand experience, not people at home watching tv state propaganda. Rather having big country others fear than bread, butter and prosperity.
Institut Action-Résilience published a detailed analysis of the Russian tanks still in storage. The study was translated into english on 31-08-2023 and is available (download) here:
https://institutactionresilience.fr/publications.php
Maybe the best analysis so far about Russian industrial capacities to restore, modernize and/or produce new tanks. Definitively worth reading.
did i understand right article speaks solely about reserve and maintenance bases, therefore does not include combat/combat ready units equipped with tanks?
Yes, it speaks mostly about reserve and maintenance bases, but part 5 also talks about current losses and the number of tanks available in Ukraine in 2024 and 2025.
i havent finished yet, page 32, but if whole industry capacity is 400 tanks a year (incl renovated), thatd be cool. Not in attrition wise (that too), but in terms on recovery and licking wound wise after war.
Estimates of Russian and Ukrainian losses, end of august 2023: https://militaryland.net/forum/russian-invasion-2022/data-analysis/#post-491
NB: for some reason, the forum “War in Ukraine” is not visible from the forum homepage.
Seems to be intended?
Russia has near constant significant losses around Bahmut, Verhnokamjanka and south of Vuhledar
Jerome, I’m on Discord, but the discord link didn’t work. Is there other way I can find your channel there?
This is the official link: https://discord.com/invite/wggKXxk6aH
3) The first video in Avdiika region is again so sad to see and I ask me: „What could have been done, to prevent this attack?“ or „What was the error?“ You know, of course beside the fact that the RUS never should have come, but in this special situation in the video. Is it about that there was no Gepard in near? I mean, even if you run, the drone can switch path so… Read more »
how could these affected soldiers could have been survive beside the general fact that the Western could have send more of these Gepards or what else would be able to destroy such a drone.
There’s an absolute metric f-ton of drones being used in this war. They’re hard to detect and often not seen until too late. There’s currently no way to secure all Ukrainian territory from potential small drone attack. The same is true for Russia as well. Both sides launch many thousands of these drones per month at each other. Limited range and high cost limit anti-drone capabilities.
Basically the same dilemma as land mines. It’s cheap to deploy, it’s expensive to counter. That’s what makes it effective. Sad as the result may be.
It wasn’t a drone attack, it was an artillery attack. In this case, the drones are responsible for target acquisition. If the drones were destroyed, there would still have been artillery attacks. Just not so accurate. These types of drones can be taken down with handguns, provided you spot them in time.
you need to spot them (not always easy) and hit them (not so trivial also, which any person who actually shoot something in their life knows).
It happens and it will happen again. No one should have ridiculous impression born from some of the Western Media that Ukr. soldiers are really NATO mutants riding on unstoppable mosquitos. Or that the RU ones are morons. Morons die quickly in the field.
2) Due to the will of UKR to join EU they have to fight against the „old“ corruption system.
In the last months the president dismissed a lot of important governors due to the topic.
My questions is now: Beside the EU case, how much could this actions also be bad for UKR in terms of power?
Like all this long-lasting persons have of course their own voters/support and with dismissing
the people might it be, that then in other branches there is a loss for UKR?
Like, there a the corrupt person, but the corruption is not in connection with Russia, more with UKR internal topics and still, he has brought the UKR much in having connections to good people.
If these connections get lost or some UKR people loved her governor and then try to flee out of the country instead of
fighting because the president threatened their „boss“ not well, how can that influence the hole situation in a bad way?
(Sorry again for bad english)
Judging from the handful of Ukrainians I know or watch online when discussing rooting out the corruption, there’s no love lost when these people lose their influence and/or government posts.
Unrelated to the summary. If you wish to discuss topics like this, please join our Discord.
Hello!
I‘m again with three questions:
1) What are your expectations for the incoming winter?
Like will RUS start again that many rocket attacks even that the UKR is now protected better?
Besides that I don‘t remember much from the last winter season due the weather.
So what are your thoughts on it?
Russia will undoubtedly try this every winter as long as this war continues.
If Russia mobilizes again, it may also try to make a winter offensiv again, and yes, winter missile campaign.
i was always wondering if 300-400k/year is a limit that R can afford to equip, train and feed, i know there are two conscript rounds a year, and after 6 months they can sign contract with army and move to UA as well, but not all of them will go, does it make it upper limit 600k? if natality/migration is around 1.6-1.8M, divided by 2 (women), if war will go long term, affecting entire generation.
and we know for sure they had problem to staff 3rd army corpse with 90k last year and surely have initative 400k this year, again having problems to reach target, though no real data available if its 120k or more, or less.
I also doubt they can sustainably equip, train, feed, and pay (salary and service related benefits) that number of people at once. There’s virtually no way they’ll achieve the million man army except on paper. Plus the lack of experience and decimated officer corps means many will just quickly become casualties. Putin is as much guilty of a Russian minorities genocide as he is a Ukrainian one.
Btw, I wouldn’t call a Ukrainian surprise attack completely unlikely. If Russia stays defensively and or does not mobilize more, Ukraine may want to keep the attrition gradient up.
Would be a great time for the US to finally commit to delivering ATACMS to keep up the pressure on Russian supply lines as well. Disrupt Russia’s ability to respond to and sustain defensive actions.
yes, youre right, seem like snowball growing and growing. Also less men at home working, Industry military wise, but lacking “normal” goods. I mean they can become North Korea if they wish to so much, but dont think the privileged would like to enjoy their money inside russia. Plus i dont think they want to pay all of their soldiers, so many stories about cremated or missing, or stolen money.
Gaining momentum near Robotyne?