Russian monthly losses as reportet by MoD of Ukraine

Posted by: @max-beckhaus

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Oh, and can anybody explain the new maximum of 30 "special equipment" in February, followed by 66!?! in March?

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/04/17/destruction-of-electronic-warfare-equipment-as-a-prelude-to-a-counteroffensive/

Looks like the answer is radars and electronic warfare systems (Jammers etc.).

- Personnel losses down to autumn level

- New low in tanks lost (previous december 22)

- Considerable losses in artillery and decent in vehicles

- New lows in aircraft, helicopters and cruise missiles

- Comparably hugh losses in special equipment again (March and April double the next highest month of february 23). Ukraine is supposed to hunt radar and jamming systems successfully.

It seems that Russia is running out of tanks and cruise missiles to throw at Ukraine in big numbers. Russias winter offensive has pretty much culminated without much to show off for. Ukraine seems to set conditions for its counteroffensive with the destruction of artillery and special equipment.

*starting with March `22

A very "extrem" month:

- very low losses in tanks, APVs like in April again. That level should be sustainable for Russia.

- HUGH losses in artillery "systems" (553, previous record 333 in Oct.) while MRLS are average. Oryx also shows rising but about average losses in big artillery systems. My best guess is, that Ukraine destroys mortar system very successfully.

- 2nd highest month in AA

- HUGH amounts of operational/strategical UAVs destroyed (655, previous record 406 in October), a lot of shaheds.

- 2nd highest month in cruise missiles shot down

- HUGH amounts of special equipment destroyed (99, previous record 66 in March `23). Oryx points to jammers, radars.

Ukraine is shaping the battlefield while Russia is trying to disrupt with missiles and UAVs.

Something is brewing most definitly, and i would call it the counteroffensive.

I like these systematic summaries. I will have a closer look at Oryx categories artillery, MLRS, AA and your special equipment.

The rain up to now and the resulting wet ground deserve attention to predict a real offensive.

2022:

2023:

* Ground Equipment including: Tanks, APV, Artillery, MRLS, AA and Vehicles.

* monthly: Average monthly losses excluding February *22

Note: I included a new metric "Ground Equipment" for easy comparability of months.

June 2023:

- Solid numbers across the board

- New records in Artillery, AA and Special Equipment

- A lot of Helicopters, UAVs and Cruise Missiles

- Most ground equipment since the early months of the war (March to May `22) and slightly more than September `22

Interpretation:

The ukrainian counter offensive is a lot more successfull than the gained ground shows. It is on pair with the most successfull counter offensive month of September `22 concerning destroyed gear with the emphasis changing from tanks and APVs to artillery, anti aircraft and special equipment systems.

I think we see a Kherson type development which lead to liberation in november after ugly losses in September and October `22. It is anyonce guess when and if Russia will decide/have to shorten the frontline.

2023:

* Ground Equipment including: Tanks, APV, Artillery, MRLS, AA and Vehicles.

* monthly: Average monthly losses excluding February *22

July 2023:

- Basicly June 2.0

- New records in MRLS, AA and Special Equipment

- New lows in planes/helicopters

- The current cruise missile campaign slows down. The average in `23 is 89 per month.

* Ground Equipment including: Tanks, APV, Artillery, MRLS, AA and Vehicles.

* Average monthly losses excluding February *22

- New record (18 months) in artillery systems

- second highest loss in vehicles

- highest tanks/APV loss in 2023

- third highest month in ground equipment destroyed

Note: The data suggests that MoD Ukraine may have changed its definition of `artillery systems` at the start of 2023 adding smaller mortar systems or the artillery system losses in 2022 were very low.