@ren My pleasure!
Btw, i am very sure by now that Ukraine includes mortars in its "artillery systems" numbers. I also did a new Oryx/Ukraine reports analysis with the estimates of "real" losses by Oryx. They think they underestimate frontline gear losses by 20% and a lot more, up to 100%, concerning gear from the back line, like artillery. If you cross check that with the Ukrainian reports you come to a 60% of Ukraine report numbers are the real losses rule of thumb.
Greetings!
Ukraine counteroffensive special:
I added up Russian and Ukrainian Oryx losses in June and July (06+07 columns) and included the relative numbers for June+July and the total war.
| Russia | Ukraine | Ukr/Ru | Ukr/Ru | |
| 06+07 | 06+07 | 06+07 | war | |
| Tanks | 185 | 86 | 46% | 27% |
| Armoured Fighting Vehicles | 71 | 27 | 38% | 33% |
| Infantry Fighting Vehicles | 223 | 128 | 57% | 26% |
| Armoured Personnel Carriers | 28 | 45 | 161% | 93% |
| Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles | 3 | 76 | 2533% | 291% |
| Infantry Mobility Vehicles | 9 | 27 | 300% | 174% |
| Command Posts And Communications Stations | 2 | 3 | 150% | 7% |
| Engineering Vehicles And Equipment | 19 | 16 | 84% | 22% |
| Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems | 3 | 0 | 0% | 51% |
| Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment | 3 | 0 | 0% | 22% |
| Towed Artillery | 41 | 18 | 44% | 53% |
| Self-Propelled Artillery | 68 | 25 | 37% | 40% |
| Multiple Rocket Launchers | 49 | 5 | 10% | 20% |
| Anti-Aircraft Guns | 0 | 0 | NA | 24% |
| Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns | 0 | 1 | NA | 25% |
| Surface-To-Air Missile Systems | 25 | 4 | 16% | 85% |
| Radars and Communications Equipment | 8 | 9 | 113% | 175% |
| Jammers and Deception Systems | 9 | 2 | 22% | 8% |
| Aircraft | 2 | 2 | 100% | 82% |
| Helicopters | 10 | 1 | 10% | 31% |
| Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles | 3 | 6 | 200% | 208% |
| Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles | 32 | 25 | 78% | 50% |
| Naval Ships | 0 | 0 | NA | 217% |
| Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps | 204 | 88 | 43% | 26% |
| Sum | 997 | 594 | 60% | 35% |
Interesting and very good that Ukraine is losing less artillery compared to Russia than on average during the whole war.
Oryx underestimates losses esp. in the rear, but they state "up to 100%". Let us not become over optimistic, much depends on limited quantities of precision munitions.
Possibly only automatic mortars and 120 mm and over. Oryx offered figures for those at the early phase of reinvasion. Now there only automatic of 82mm plus and 240 mm.
@ren The 60% MoD to "real losses estimates by Oryx" rule holds true for the 20% frontline gear estimate by Oryx and would represent at a 70% increase of Oryx numbers to "real" for AA (61%), MRLS(66%) and vehicles and fuel tanks (63%). So it is quite conservativly of from 100% and actually in the lower half of Oryxes quote "50% and up to 100% for rear gear", if i remember that correctly.
If you are interested, here is the interview with Jakub Janowski from Oryx.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33T813NGOgM
The big caviat is, that Oryx gets a lot more data from the Ukrainian side, which should indicate a bias towards Ukraine in general. The 60% rule concerning Russian losses seems decently conservative though, to use it as a rule of thumb. Since Oryx was pretty confident concerning frontline gear, i would guess that it is pretty true. I got a flat 60% for armored personal vehicles and 62% for tanks. So the 60% is actually the minimum of 5 relations all being in the sixty percent area.
greetings!
Glad to understand your estimates remain conservative.
Another interesting conservative point Jakub made is that the bulk of captured equipment is stripped for parts. If I understood him well, he said only 1 in 23 are directly used for frontline duty.
regards,
Ren
@max-beckhaus In August very high attrition on both sides in categories of tanks, IFV, artillery categories, SAM, drones, and electronic equipment (Oryx figures). Hopefully the ratios at the end of the month will be encouraging for Ukraine even during offensive.
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | 01.09.23 | average | ||
| Tanks | 56 | 119 | 124 | 5 | 92 | 79 | 106 | 86 | 2274 | 126 | Tanks |
| Armoured Fighting Vehicles | 16 | 27 | 27 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 38 | 22 | 958 | 53 | Armoured Fighting Vehicles |
| Infantry Fighting Vehicles | 102 | 144 | 128 | 33 | 76 | 90 | 133 | 119 | 2714 | 151 | Infantry Fighting Vehicles |
| Armoured Personnel Carriers | 12 | 4 | 11 | -4 | 3 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 347 | 19 | Armoured Personnel Carriers |
| Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles | 44 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 47 | 3 | Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles |
| Infantry Mobility Vehicles | -1 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 204 | 11 | Infantry Mobility Vehicles |
| Command Posts And Communications Stations | 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 248 | 14 | Command Posts And Communications Stations |
| Engineering Vehicles And Equipment | 6 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 340 | 19 | Engineering Vehicles And Equipment |
| Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 2 | Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems |
| Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment | 1 | -1 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 6 | Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment |
| Towed Artillery | 10 | 16 | 15 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 18 | 25 | 291 | 16 | Towed Artillery |
| Self-Propelled Artillery | 23 | 22 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 26 | 42 | 36 | 509 | 28 | Self-Propelled Artillery |
| Multiple Rocket Launchers | 3 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 33 | 6 | 257 | 14 | Multiple Rocket Launchers |
| Anti-Aircraft Guns | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | Anti-Aircraft Guns |
| Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1 | Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns |
| Surface-To-Air Missile Systems | 5 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 12 | 151 | 8 | Surface-To-Air Missile Systems |
| Radars and Communications Equipment | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 3 | Radars and Communications Equipment |
| Jammers And Deception Systems | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 52 | 3 | Jammers And Deception Systems |
| Aircraft | 1 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 88 | 5 | Aircraft |
| Helicopters | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 104 | 6 | Helicopters |
| Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 1 | Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles |
| Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles | 11 | 23 | 13 | 7 | 27 | 8 | 24 | 14 | 280 | 16 | Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles |
| Naval Ships | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | Naval Ships |
| Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps | 72 | 66 | 78 | 58 | 84 | 95 | 109 | 61 | 2796 | 155 | Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps |
Notes:
- Oryx only includes visually confirmed losses. Numbers also do lag behing. E.g. the monthly numbers are those of pictures/videos making it to Oryx in that month, not those actually happening in the month.
- Oryx states that its numbers underestimate real losses. They think frontline kit (Tanks, IFV, APC, etc.) real losses may be 20% higher. Gear from the rear (Artillery, AA) something like 100% higher.
- The comparability of monthly losses is low, since Oryx reviews its statistics for double counting, e.g. resulting in negativ monthly numbers amd new pictures coming in from other months. It still should be enough to show trends.
| Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine | Ukraine | ||
| February | March | April | May | June | July | August | 01.09.23 | monthly | ||
| Tanks | 17 | 15 | 5 | 19 | 48 | 38 | 36 | 631 | 35 | Tanks |
| Armoured Fighting Vehicles | 5 | 7 | -8 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 317 | 18 | Armoured Fighting Vehicles |
| Infantry Fighting Vehicles | 24 | 26 | 4 | 19 | 54 | 74 | 57 | 728 | 40 | Infantry Fighting Vehicles |
| Armoured Personnel Carriers | 3 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 17 | 28 | 17 | 330 | 18 | Armoured Personnel Carriers |
| Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles | 2 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 48 | 28 | 19 | 153 | 9 | Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) Vehicles |
| Infantry Mobility Vehicles | 27 | -4 | 0 | 32 | 12 | 15 | 21 | 365 | 20 | Infantry Mobility Vehicles |
| Command Posts And Communications Stations | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 1 | Command Posts And Communications Stations |
| Engineering Vehicles And Equipment | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 79 | 4 | Engineering Vehicles And Equipment |
| Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | Self-Propelled Anti-Tank Missile Systems |
| Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | Artillery Support Vehicles And Equipment |
| Towed Artillery | 8 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 157 | 9 | Towed Artillery |
| Self-Propelled Artillery | 9 | 14 | 8 | 23 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 211 | 12 | Self-Propelled Artillery |
| Multiple Rocket Launchers | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 50 | 3 | Multiple Rocket Launchers |
| Anti-Aircraft Guns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | Anti-Aircraft Guns |
| Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | Self-Propelled Anti-Aircraft Guns |
| Surface-To-Air Missile Systems | -1 | 2 | 4 | 21 | -1 | 5 | 10 | 128 | 7 | Surface-To-Air Missile Systems |
| Radars and Communications Equipment | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 4 | Radars and Communications Equipment |
| Jammers And Deception Systems | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | Jammers And Deception Systems |
| Aircraft | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 71 | 4 | Aircraft |
| Helicopters | 2 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 2 | Helicopters |
| Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 1 | Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles |
| Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles | 14 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 152 | 8 | Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles |
| Naval Ships | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | Naval Ships |
| Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps | 14 | 24 | 12 | 54 | 52 | 36 | 28 | 727 | 40 | Trucks, Vehicles and Jeeps |
Notes:
- Oryx only includes visually confirmed losses. Numbers also do lag behing. E.g. the monthly numbers are those of pictures/videos making it to Oryx in that month, not those actually happening in the month.
- Oryx states that its numbers underestimate real losses. They think frontline kit (Tanks, IFV, APC, etc.) real losses may be 20% higher. Gear from the rear (Artillery, AA) is supposed to be something like 100% higher.
- The comparability of monthly losses is low, since Oryx reviews its statistics for double counting, e.g. resulting in negativ monthly numbers, and new pictures coming in from other months. It still should be enough to show trends.