Invasion Day 354 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 12th February 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Russian artillery targeted Ukrainian positions in Hryanykivka, signaling renewed Russian activity in this area. (source)
- The enemy likely gained full control over Tavilzhanka and Dvorichne settlements, based on the video above.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Russian troops managed to advance west towards Torske settlement. (source)
- Russian forces pushed Ukrainians away from the southern area of Ploshchanka. (source)
- The situation in the area of Chervonopopivka is currently covered by the fog of war. It’s possible that Ukrainian troops retreated from the vicinity, as the Ukrainian General Staff no longer reports repelled attacks in the area.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Torske, Kreminna, Serebryanske forest, Shypylivka, Bilohorivka, Fedorivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Wagner mercenaries, as we reported yesterday, captured Krasna Hora and today provided additional proof. (source)
- Given the capture of Krasna Hora, it’s likely that Paraskoviivka settlement is contested now.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Paraskoviivka, Krasna Hora, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Fighting continues on the outskirts of Bakhmut.
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- It’s very likely that the few remaining houses in the area of Vodyane are either abandoned, or under Russian control. The settlement is now marked as occupied.
- Based on a recent satellite imagery, Russian troops control the treeline north of Opytne.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Pervomaiske
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Hunters of Ukrainian 68th Jager Brigade repelled a Russian attack in the direction of Vuhledar. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Pobieda, Vuhledar
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
What happened to the Russian push towards Bohoyavlenka north-west of Vuhledar?
It fizzled out. Nothing came of it.
Jerome, I would suggest marking Zolotarivka as RU-held. Unlike Bilohorivka to the north, it’s not mentioned at all in Ukrainian reports and the Russians don’t attack it.
Good point
Yes . Under ru control since lots of month.
The most depressive update yet, but it is what it is. Does anyone here know how fortified Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are? From what I’ve read, not so much. That’s worrying since then it’s straight toward Dnipro and I really don’t want to think of what comes next.
Some tactical successes for Russia and you are talking about Dnipro? At the current speed that would be somewhere next year. We have no reason to believe that those grinding tactical successes will ever be translated to operational successes. Russia hasn´t shown that ability at all in this war. There is absolutly no reason to be pessimistic yet. We have seen exactly this befor.
And until now it has always ended with Ukraine taking back a lot more land with its next counter offensive. I am not saying this can´t change, but until now i haven´t seen anything we didn´t see befor. Mud is coming back soon, that will end any major operational hopes anyways. And Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are major citys and fortresses. Taking those without Izjum is a hugh stretch.
This is true. Territorial gains since 1 January have been insignificant (230-240 km2) and even more telling is that the Ukrainians have never been caught by surprise or made to retreat in panic.
Seriously?
Kramatorsk and sloviansk are big heavy fortified Fortress. Bakmut is “just” a small Fortress.
Its not a secret. All serious pro ru osint talk with Terror about sloviansk/kramatorsk Fortress.
Taking Bakhmut is a prerequisite to taking Dnipro – in the same way that learning to ride a bicycle is a prerequisite to winning the Tour de France.
Russia has been trying to ride that Bakhmut bike for several months, and still keeps falling down. Its outlook as a pro cyclist is not great.
in what kind of Universe Bakhmut is a ‘prerequisite’ to taking Dnipro? Have you ever seen Ukraine’s map? I’d argue that actually taking Dnipro was (for RU) absolute paramount to keep Kherson and have any resemblance of a chance to get to Odessa.Hiwever, since they fortunatelly fc*k this up so badly – thanks to sacrifice of guys keeping them around and in Mariupol –>
–> the defenders of Mariupol literally bought the time for Ukr with their very own blood when she needed that so badly – there is no chance to any other significant ‘breakthrough’ of such scale. Until you fantasise a million seriosly doped mobics in zerg rush mode on the 30km front. That would probably ‘work’.
Hi Noelle. How do you interpret the Russians´ obsession with this non strategic cities like Mariupol (after it was already surrounded and the fighters in Azovstal posed no threat) and now Bakhmut. Is it because the RU strategy is driven by political decisions or-and by the ineptitude of the military? Is Ukraine actively contributing to create those symbolic ´obsessions´? (probably forum stuff 🙂
If I may, the Russians are not “obsessed” with any particular town in the Donbass. They want to take the whole region. Period. The narrative about “non strategic” cities is used in the West (and Ukraine) to downplay Russian gains.
one does not contradict with another.
define ‘strategic’. Politics are as much important as bullets. Often even more – there would be no real support for Ukraine without the political will. As any army and any country Ru craves symbols, especially if there is not much else to show. Wasting time and resources on Mariupol was a military deadly error. From politics perspective – destroying —>
Well, those ‘symbols’ or ‘turned into symbols’ are costing the RU the war. In my opinion they function more as a baits, that they RU endlessly bite. All that Ukr talk about the ‘fortress” of Bakhmut, Bakhmt holds, Bakhmut will never fall, etc. is part of the Ukr’s symbolic construction of Bakhmut as a bait for the RU. To certain extent Kherson played a similar role, for a while.
sry, continuation was eaten somehow.
This is a war, not a game. Ability to mobilise (and at the same time keeping demobilised in RU’s case) general populus is crucial. ‘Alamo’ had no military significance, too. And yet. Symbolic part of any effort of such scale as war cannot be overstated and for that part Zelensky or Arestovoch (which is kinda shady figure) are worth as much as whole armies.
Yeah, I’ve seen the map. The Russians are pushing east, and Dnipro is east of Bakhmut. All I meant is that if they’re having so much trouble taking Bakhmut, there’s no way they’ll be able to reach Dnipro.
just check how much kms are from Kramatorsk (and on what kind of terrain) and how much from Tokmak to Zaporizia and the to the Dnipro.
‘taking the Dnipro’ was (and is) as much a ‘wet dream’ as ‘taking the Odessa’. Drawing arrows on the map is easy.
MMMh so loosing useless villages, without any tactical and logisitical values is a depressive update ? UKR soldiers should defend big cities and strategical points, there is no value to stay on useless ground….Let the russians grind fields and small villages to extend their supplies lines and then hit them when they are too widely spread …. Same as last year ame period I will say….
If there is truth to the rumors that the Ukrainian Army is starting to bar volunteers from going in to provide humanitarian assistance within Bakhmut, I suspect that means the withdrawal is either starting or will be starting very soon.
yep, seems to be. Assuming that the flanks holds (especially North which appears to be more vulnerable atm) I’d say that in two weeks at most Bakhmut will be vacated completely.
Until ‘something’ happen.
There might be some denial area actions sold as ‘counterattacks’ or such to spoil an anniversary for Putin, though.
If Bakhmut falls what would realistically change? Would the Russians gain any real advantage from it or will the battle just move a couple kilometers north-west to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk?
Bakhmut has been fortified for eight years, don’t pretend this isn’t a loss for Ukraine. Kramatorsk and Sloviansk will be easily marched to, and if those falls then it’s straight to Dnipro. I don’t particularly appreciate how we who are pro-Ukraine tries to downplay the situation. It’s not looking good atm
Bakhmut has not been fortified for eight years, at least no more than many other towns in Donbas because it was far away from the line of contact. Bakhmut has become the frontal town only after Popasna breakout last year.
Russia hasn´t marched anywhere easily in this war yet, what makes you believe that changed all of the sudden?
If/when Bakhmut falls, Siversk and Avdiivka are next target.
But it no make sense becose no one knows what’s global goals, this goals are top secret.
Between Bakhmut and Slovyansk about 30 km flat field and UA should have already fortified Slovyansk and Kromatorsk
I hope Putin will say “Donbass people are safe, we can negotiate” or other similar nonsense. Because Russia is running out of money
no it was not. Bakhmut pretty randomly became ‘fortress’ just because it was a place where the RU offensive capabilities after Severodoneck were exhaused.
And it took them more than 4 months to actively endanger the town.
Dnipro.. oh boy. As an expert please tell me what is a width of your divisions ? ;p
Retreat probably start 2 weeks ago.
Some source say only 10k defender still are in bakmut.
Wait and see.
Thanks so much for your work Jerome!