Invasion Day 353 – Bakhmut Front
The summary of the 353rd day on Bakhmut Front, as of 22:00 – 11th February 2023 (Kyiv time).
Due to the Russian advance in the area of Bakhmut, we’re releasing an extra summary solely focused on the Bakhmut Front. The classic summaries remain bi-daily.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- The enemy reached the center of Krasna Hora. It’s safe to assume now that Ukrainian troops retreated west to Paraskoviivka. (source)
- Wagner mercenaries reached the fortified positions located on the M-03 highway. (source)
- A road bridge near Ivanivske, located on the road connecting Kostyantynivka and Bakhmut, was blown up. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Russian forces advanced by a few houses on the north-eastern outskirts. (source)
Looking for an interactive map? We got you covered. Visit our original Deployment map.
If you would like to use our maps in your project, video or any other media, please visit Invasion maps page for more information.
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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They did it to themselves.
If they hadn’t invaded none of this would have happened.
Hello, congratulations for your work. Personally I got the idea that total defeat of the opponent is not achievable in a short time (several years?).
I would like to ask two questions:
1 – What are the chances of a compromise agreement being signed?
By compromise I mean an agreement that sees Ukraine independent but without part of its territories.
1/2
2/2
2 – What must happen in order to start negotiating?
3 – If at the end of the summer, the situation were similar to the current one, could we start negotiating?
Handing over any territory to Russia would not be a compromise but a complete road to hell. The only compromise that exists is that the Russians will withdraw from Ukraine, recognise it as independent, start paying reparations and we will slowly start getting rid of the sanctions and bring them into the civilised world. Why would it be wrong to let Russia have the territories ?
We would send a signal to other states with claims to foreign territories that they can take what they want by force and the only thing that will happen to them is that the west will be angry with them for a while but they will still get what they want.
I agree that the easy cession of territory is something that no European nation will concede (especially for those who remember Hitler in the period before the Second World War). But for Crimea the general feeling is different, at least for the countries that fought a war there in the 19th century.
Russians will resort to nukes before they leave Crimea, and the annexation of Crimea would still be a precedent for other conflicts of irredentism.
‘Russians will resort to nukes before they leave Crimea’ that’s what the putinists wants you to belive. While Mr. P. is definitelly much more inclined to push the red button than any Western leader it is still not ‘just push the button’.
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2) russian have to offer something. Dombass or crimea.
3) no. Ukrain in strong position will not accept capitulation. And putin will only accept to negociate in desesparate situation.
Is Ukraine really in a strong position? Their most valuable land is under occupation and they are projected to lose one third of their GDP in 2023, meanwhile Russia is projected to suffer a relatively small recession (a 4% drop).
Both are in a shitty position but Ukraine is in a slightly shittier position all things considered,
Hum… Their most valuable lands are Kyïv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Lviv and Odessa Oblast… making 60% of their GDP. So they didn’t lost their most valuable land.
But yeah hard not to have your economy suffer when the fight is on your ground. Russia has no one attacking them so it’s quite easy to not suffer as much 🙂
He means valuable in raw resources, where the east of Ukraine excels in comparison to other parts of the country. Without these parts the rest of the country does not have much to offer tbh.
maybe ‘easier to get’ would be more correct. This is generally a typical Western rabbithole. For Putin this might be a potential bonus – bear in mind that resources does not just jump out of the ground all this would require substantial investments, starting with rebuilding a runied country, for which Ru has no money and no tech anymore – bonus, yes. Not ‘the point’.
At the end of next summer it will be nearly two years of war. If the situation does not change significantly between now and the summer, it means that neither of the two can be said to be in a position of strength.
And then a situation similar to Korea (there are tens of thousands of US soldiers in the South) can be convenient for both.
If at the end of summer, Ukrain have lose his superiority, its mean a very Big change of the situation.
Criticism is going to rain on me for saying this but I am pretty sure that victory, compromise or defeat will depend on how far the United States are ready to go. It’s as simple as that.
in general – yes, especially in an active conflict phase. Have in mind that while political cost of the war for U.S. is tricky the actual ‘cost in hard $’ of the war is in reality pure profit for the U.S. of A.
I mean, even if the USA was losing 200Bln USD a year in military aid to Ukraine that’s not really going to affect them that much, they are stupidly rich.
200Bln is only 1/4 of their annual Defense Budget lol so a bargain for them hahah
The USA is spending about 5% of its military budget in Ukraine and it is being used against the USA’s main enemy.
Seems like good value.
the point is that, thanks to Mr. P. USA (as a state, not military complex alone) actually ‘makes a buck’ on this whole affair. Just for example: instead of maintaining and recycling a ton of old stuff which wasn’t meant to be used anyway (from M113 up to Bradley – yes, these Bradleys are from decomissioned reserve) thsi goes into Ukraine for a penny where is used and does not require —>
—> that much of US input.
Next time when some ;expert’ in CNN starts crying about ‘US is loosing its reserves’ have that in mind.
In the short term you are right, in the long term it could also depend on a situation of tiredness
I am not quite sure of that. I can see how europe takes more or less over after 2024 elections in usa and Ukraine still wins. Right now the usa is important, but no more than europe.
And in this compromise, what is the part of russian side?
‘compromise’ in Russian means: I get anything what I want and then some and you get the honour of kissing my ass for a while.
A compromise could be Ukraine’s entry into the EU and the presence of a guarantee military corps like the one in the Baltic states (military is not decisive, there are 5,000 men, but to defeat it Russia would have to kill soldiers of almost each NATO state and at that point …)
You didnt answer .
I Ask what will be Russian part in a compromise . Not what UE /otan Can Do After the War. Russia is not concern about that.
even if the war ended with the current borders, Russia would have missed many initial objectives.
the bulk of Ukraine would be definitively out of her orbit and NATO extended to the Finnish borders. Strategically for Russia it is a big compromise (defeat), at least compared to its initial claims
A partial defeat ( or partial Victory) of course. But not a compromise.
Look it is possible to negotiate that Ukraine can’t become a part of the EU or NATO and such things. But the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not negotiable. As long as Russia insists that Ukr territories are Russia, there can’t be peace. Negotiations were cancelled last Autumn exactly because of the annexation. Any such deal would be equivalent to the Sudentenland debacle
I’d say that this ship is gone (‘Ukr not in NATO’ etc.). Until you assume that RU just collapse into warrying statelets in the near future which is kinda cheerished fantasy of the CEEurope.
That said, the ‘in NATO’ not necessarily must have take the form of ‘in the NATO’. Alliance itself will inevitably change because of this war, it already is changing allbeit slowly.
Ukraine would and should never sign a peace treaty which VETOs it from joining NATO, if Russia invades a second time they will be in an even worse position then, and Russia already did shit on the Budapest Memorandum
Without a real compromise or a total victory, I too think that Ukraine’s entry into NATO will be almost impossible. To join NATO you don’t have to have a part of the territory occupied or a truce/war going on.
A little while ago I wrote these two messages which can supplement the answer, but which I cannot attach due to the limited space.
Close to zero with right now. No side is satisfied and no side is strong/weak enough to favour negotiations.
Serious trust issue, Russia doesn’t recognize Ukraine as a soverign country, they lie & change their goals.
It’s like negotating with a burglar accepting one room to be looted for now then let him come back later with more powerul break-in-tools to plunder rest of the house.
We fear he’s right… when might the two belligerents feel tired enough to start negotiating?
Thanks everyone for the replies. Surely Putin’s biggest mistake was the attack on Ukraine. The problem is that war has become existential for both states, so it is very unlikely that one of the two contentions will stop fighting even with the change of president. For this I was wondering, what could be the compromise acceptable to both, but which could shorten the war
it is not ‘existential for both states’. It is existential for Ukraine (and Poland, Baltics etc.) but not for Russia. It is existential for Putin’s regime, that’s not necessarily the same (until you are in the camp: ‘Russia without the Putin will die’ which is obvious nonsense).
If it is existential for the balts, poland, etc. than you could argue that it is existential for russia as an empire as well. Estland is not lost if Ukraine is, nore russia if Ukraine wins. But both scenarios endanger the current state of these states.
there is a many ways of being an empire (and military one is pretty stupid and not very effective – the MCDOnalds and Disney have made more for establishing the ‘(almost)Pax America’ than all the US interventions combined, and a lot of them were actualy detrimental). And there is a question ‘does Russia have to be an >empire< to be Russia’.
For Poland, Baltics etc. the calculus is —>
very different. Any ‘Russian Empire’ existing (as it is stupidly pictured by Russian imperialists) is a mortal danger which calls for annihilation (yeah, that sentiment is growing in the CEE don’t be surprised if you hear some really hawkish speeches).
We have been there, got shit on the heads. Bear in mind that Balitics and Eastern Poland is considered a ‘lost parts’ of ‘Ru Empire’.
I am very aware of that. Being part of NATO is quite a deterrent though. If Russia loses this war, it just may fall apart or change considerably.
Also – music, film and TV have a big influence
Confirmation regarding Krasna Hora:
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1624690180069244930
I think it would be necessary to clarify the attitude of Chinese normal people toward this war. At the beginning of the war, there were many supporting Ukraine and many supporting Russia, they were fooled by propaganda, deceived by Putin, and crying for Russian emperor’s SIEG. But after Russian army was humiliatingly defeated in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lyman, Kherson, everything changed.
Russia, its army, and Putin became laughingstock and memes on the Chinese internet. We made many nicknames for them. Putin– “softhearted emperor (showing goodwill by retreating)”; “Puyi (which was the name of China’s last emperor)”; ” Tsar of hyaluronic acid”; Russia—“菜鹅（noob Russia/goose)”; Schoigu–“God of War”; and the most famous one for Russia’s dutiful sons in China–黄鹅（yellow Russians)
Don’t fart, China has always been neutral in this war, although it is trying to help Russia economically. In the private sector, there are a large number of messages and statements in support of Zelinski and NATO sent by a very small number of people on the Chinese network platform, most of which are online garbage that has received money to distort the truth.
In real life, we can’t see such a person. Almost everyone stands against NATO. This is not to cause a world war or support aggression, but to resent hegemonism and strive for real peaceful coexistence.
Haha, god, I cannot help laughing, truth? What kind of truth? Everyone in real life is against NATO? Do you know who said, “China is ready to deepen its cooperation with NATO?” Wang Yi! You yellow geese always ignore truth and only select the one that you want to believe, just like Putin himself. Perhaps you even believe that Putin dares to fight against NATO?
Now you can see how a classic yellow goose poisoned by propaganda yells: they can see no different opinion, believing that everyone who does not support Russia has received foreign money to distort truth—what kind of truth? Russia’s glorious victory in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lyman, and Kerson? Russia’s conquest of 1h22min? Putin’s brave fight against NATO (actually he fears NATO so much)?
Sounds good for our forums next time. Thanks
巴赫姆特的乌贼再不跑真的就玩完喽
你的俄爹正在弗格列达尔嘴啃泥呢
English only please.
will there be a regular summary for 354 days?
354 (today) yes
Why there was no bi-daily summary for 352 days?