The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 30th December 2022 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
The last summary of this year is here. Thank you all for staying with us and the site for so long, and see you next year!
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Ukrainian General Staff reported shelling of Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Vilshana settlement, hinting at a presence of Ukrainian defenders nearby.
- Ukrainian Special Detachment Kraken released a video of liberation of Novoselivske settlement. However, the footage is not recent and fits roughly to October, when we first reported an attack on Novoselivske in Summary 248. Novoselivske remains marked as contested. (source)
- The defenders repelled Russian attacks towards Stelmakhivka, Andriivka and Makiivka.
- Russian forces launched a counter-attack in the area of Ploschanka and managed to push out Ukrainian forces a bit away from the settlement.
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in the area of Chervonopopivka.
- Sporadic clashes are reported north of Dibrova.
- Ukrainian media reported a death of Ukrainian guardsman in the vicinity of Kuzmyne settlement (near Dibrova), indicating Ukrainian forces have advanced towards the settlement.
- Russian troops assault Ukrainian positions in the area of Bilohorivka (Luhansk O.) and Bilohorivka (Donetsk O.). They didn’t succeed.
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Russian forces secured the close vicinity of Yakovlivka. Ukrainian forces retreated to more favorable positions.
- Fighting continue in Soledar and Bakhmutske.
- Russian forces also managed to advance closer to Klishchiivka from the eastern direction.
- Ukrainian General Staff reported that enemy forces attempted to break through Ukrainian lines towards Ivanivske. The situation in this area is not looking good.
- Ukrainian Terra reconnaissance unit released a footage of Ukrainian counter-attack towards Kurdyumivka. The video shows Ukrainian troops entering the settlement from the north-west side. The footage isn’t dated, but it seems to be recent. (source)
the city of Bakhmut
- The enemy managed to advance by a few meters in the direction of Pidhorodne.
- Fighting continues in the industry area of Bakhmut.
- Russian sources claim that the Russian troops advanced into a forest north of the industry area.
However, as there is no visual proof, it remains a rumor.EDIT (Dec 31): A released footage of Ukrainian mortar fire on Russian positions in the forest area confirms Russian presence there. (source)
- Russian forces managed to capture more than a half of Opytne south of Bakhmut based on released footage. (source)
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Russian troops attempted to break through Ukrainian lines at Vesele, Kamyanka and near Avdiivka. Neither attack was successful.
- All available information indicate that the enemy managed to capture the south-eastern part of Vodyane.
- Ukrainian defenders repelled an enemy attack towards Krasnohorivka.
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Heavy fighting for every inch of Marinka continues.
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
German gas tanks are actually filling up right now and stay at 90% and oil imports stopped. Russias energy blackmail failed. Russias state finances will turn very ugly this year. Urals oil index is below 60 all december and gas to europe is gone. Taxes will have to rise and expenditure on anything but war will decrease.
The only problem are India and China – they are willing to buy Russian fossil exports. Ukrainians should focus on hitting Russian pipelines and ports that supply the two countries
China and India will demand cheap oil and gas.
For a map update: whole 63rd brigade is in Bakhmut
Russian MOD claims to have captured Dorozhnianka (7 km south of Huliaipole). Visual or other confirmation awaited.
it is also said that this town was basically undefended and that they just walked in there, which is possible, since the town was in the nomansland
I did not see that. MOD claimed approx. 50 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed, which contradicts the notion that the town was “basically undefended”. However, it may very well be pure propaganda as both sides love boasting about having killed zillions of enemies.
yeah, both sides claim the wildest death tolls, that’s why I never fully believe them. the casualties of this war are high, but not as high as both sides claim it to be, because otherwise this would be a war similar to some of the deadliest battles in ww2 and that’s not very plausible IMO even if the war is already almost one year old.
Look at cassualties in the Iran / Iraq war.
Indications RU attacks in Donetsk region are of reduced power the last 2 weeks, indicating Russian forces being close to exhaustion for now at least.
Given Putin’s recent words I expect Russia shall draft more troops to send into the area.
And seek to revive the attacks in say February – as drafting requires some time.
Seems indicated RU casualties truly been massive resulting in exhaustion.
300.000 fools already exhausted . new mobilization in sight , scrapping the bottom of the barrel . convicts are almost ended , next step they will force mentally ill to join the wagner group , which is completely appropriate I’d say .
russian attacks in donetsk haven’t really decreased, they are still actively pushing there. most of these attacks are meant to form the battlefield to their advantage and if it’s done then they’ll basically wait, they are waiting for the opportune moment. plus ukrianian couterattacks slow them down, but they are still pushing day by day.
also anoher draft is unlikely for now, since they still have ~250k troops in training, only about 50k are on the frontline of the 300k mobilised, then of the 250k in training ~50k are in the operational zone
but you’re right with the assumption that russia could make another big offensive in the coming months
there are no indications of high russian casualties, at least not as high as ukr claims
There are many indications that russian are suffering high casualties. Today, a russian base was completely destroyed by a HIMAR strike in Makiivka, there were hundreds od dead Russians (possibly 600) and many injured.
Everything hinges on Kreminna. If UKR takes it – and it is quite likely in view of recent advances – a lot of RU-controlled towns across thousands of square kilometers will fall in a domino-like effect. It could be a repeat of the Balakleya/Izyum scenario.
What advances ? A few hundreds meters in a forest 2 weeks ago. Very very far from taking the city, which is highly defended. And no surprise effect.
The only good surprise could come from Zaporijia oblast, but we wait for it since end of september.
To an informed observer, there was no surprise effect for Balakleya either, yet it was taken, with well-known consequences. And I don’t get the impression that the Kreminna area is effectively defended.
wrong. Balakliia, was an surprise for the russian army, since the command didn’t think that an attack from there would come, even tho pro-russian sources warned about the attack, but the command didn’t believe them. it was an surprise kreminna is not. kreminna is probably even better defended then lyman was.
the russian army learns from their mistakes and this Balakliia blunder was definitely one
This is what I meant. Russian bloggers (Podolyaka, Onufrienko, Rybar) repeatedly warned that the Balakliia offensive was coming and millions of followers were aware. The Russian military command simply ignored the signals. I would not call it a blunder but a huge intelligence fiasco (another one).
As for Kreminna, I maintain this is Russia’s weak spot. It is the only area where currently Ukraine has the strategic initiative.
We will see if anyone can mount anything on a strategic level soon, when conditions go sub zero. The last side to do that was ukraine and therefor the strategic initiative stands with ukraine, just like it did with russia after lysichanks.
You said the Russians tried to breakthrough around Ivanivske, but that town is well behind Ukrainian lines. Did you mean Ivanhrad?
Ivanivske is quite possible, it is not much away from fighting near Klischiivka.
Ivanivske SW of Bakhmut, near Klishchiivka.
Sounds like bad news for Bakhmuts defence.
I thought that the Azov were stationed there. I do not see them any more in this updated map.
It still is, 3rd Assault Brigade near Kurdyumivka.
Oh yeah, I missed the towards.