The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 5th May 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Bilohorivka, Spirne

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Ukrainian General Staff reported, for the first time, a repelled Russian attack in the direction of Markove. It seems the enemy managed to advance towards the settlement.

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Markove, Hryhorivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske

Bakhmut City

the city of Bakhmut

  • Ukrainian 77th Airmobile Brigade shelled Wagner mercenaries in the north-western part of Bakhmut, showing their further advance towards Khromove. (source)
  • Tanks of 93rd Mechanized Brigade engaged the enemy in the vicinity of Bakhmut Industrial College. (source)
  • The leader of Wagner mercenaries announced withdrawal of his troops from Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition. Take it with grain of salt, we shall see in a few days. (source)

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Niu-York

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka, Novomykhailivka

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kalanchak Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

  • No activity reported.

Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

 


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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Gordon

Yesterday, Biletsky made a comment about the escape of the 72nd Russian brigade from positions near Bakhmut. Actually, there was an exposed area where the 6th and 8th companies were completely destroyed and ran away. The width of the site is 3 kilometers. The depth is 2.6 km, this area has been cleared of occupiers. The Prigozhyn orcs who ran to close the hole in the flank lost 500 men.

Patrick

The Ukrainians have advanced west of Sakko i Vantsetti and are now in a position to recapture the settlement.

dolgan

Yes . And this settlemement is nothing in low fields. not a good position.

So the objectiv is probably to retake the high in direction to Blahodatne. not easy to do.

Gordon
An interesting situation has developed with shells for PMK Wagner. The separatist Girkin writes that there are indeed problems with shells, but Wagner still has a significant amount of artillery ammunition. And he did not feel complete hunger. Actually, as they say, Suravikin became the head of the situation with the Wagners from the Ministry of Defense
Gordon

Actually, the shells that can be given to Prigozhin will most likely be taken away from the separatist corps of the L\DPR, which already receive a small amount of these ammunitions. The situation is really interesting if someone from the DPR criticizes the Russian General Staff as much as Prigozhin criticizes it. This person would have been taken to the basement a long time ago and tortured or kil

Tristan

Girkin is not a separatist. He is not even Ukrainian. He is a Russian FSB officer and a war criminal.

Kay

Oh nonsense… How do you think that? Girkin is an absolutely correct, peaceful, righteous person. Mother-in-law’s favorite…

*irony*

Gordon

Separatism is the policy and practice of secession, separation of a part of the territory of a state with the aim of creating a sovereign state. Girkin is not Ukrainian, and I know it very well. It is not necessary to be Ukrainian to start separating territories by military means. He is an emperor and completely obsessed with the “Russian world”.

Gordon

They started the concept of separatism in 2014 when they tried to split off part of the Donetsk region from Ukraine. And they succeeded, they created pro-Russian republics, that’s why I call him a separatist because he was the leader of these scumbags in the distant 2014.

Gordon

It included both Ukrainian collaborators and Russian volunteers. I know all this very well because it happened and is happening in my country, I have been following this crap for the 9th year.

Noelle

he did not. ‘Malorossia’ nonsense was quite well present in the nationalists/nazi Russian ‘scene’ at least since ’90.
Girkin vel Strelkov was (?) an active duty officer in GRU (RF Military Intelligence branch). This whole ordeal consisted of more than DLR/LPR (where because of support of the RUAF they suceeded for some extent) the same s*t was tried in Odessa or Kharkiv also. –>

Gordon

It was Strelkov who launched this mechanism in Donbas, so for me he is a separatist. Before that, there were pro-Russian people, but no one even thought of separating a piece of territory from Ukraine. I know very well that he is an FSB officer. And I perfectly understand what kind of person he is.

Noelle

(my previous topic has been locked for moderating)
you cannot be ‘separatist’ while you are not a citizen of the country which you want ‘liberate or whatever’. Girkin/Strelkov has never been a citizen of Ukraine.

There never was genuine and serious separatists movement in Ukraine (that existed on the fringes somewhere where numerous bizzare creatures are flying). —>

Noelle

there were and still are (though largely diminished at this point in general populous) semi-pro-russian sentiments mostly nostalgia driven (older ones) or money driven (numerous messy ‘bussiness-stuff’). But Girkin’s ‘great adventure’ started with local criminals, people employed by Ru-aligned politicians and random bums. These ‘separatists’ were almost done and only RU direct –>

Noelle

intervention saved them in fragments of Donbas and Luhansk oblasts’. ‘Kharkiv People’s Republic’ and ‘Odessa People’s Republic’ never even reached the stage of consolidated riots. Propaganda materials prepared for it still are circulated (like these stories about ‘crucifixtion’ etc.)

Max Beckhaus

MoD reports on artillery systems and special equipment (jamming systems and radars) destroyed are well on track for new monthly records. To state the obvious, something is brewing. Ukraine already has an advantage in fielded tanks and if this can be stabilized, will have the advantage in artillery tubes and drones on the frontline eventually. The attritional counteroffensive is on and looking good

COLIN

No ait cover though.

Triglav

I was right, Wagner is leaving Ukraine due to high losses, just like Kadyrov left after the first few months. Except there is a twist, Kadyrov is back and Prigožin is out.

I wish Ukraine all the best luck with the counteroffensive, these soulless men who send thousands to their deaths just to appear tough and impress capo mafioso at the Kremlin cannot, must not, trample on Ukrainian soil

Triglav

In a month or two everyone will forget about Wagner

INEXORABLE

The return of TikTok warriors! They will arrive, take videos and then retreat from the counter offensive….I hope UKR army will erase them definitely

Patrick

The situation has already changed. Wagner and the MOD have allegedly agreed to iron out differences using Surovikin as an intermediary trusted by both sides.

Max Beckhaus

Kinzhal downed by patriot system, wow, that is big news.

Vova

is it confirmed information?

Max Beckhaus

Confirmed by the Ukrainian air force

Food for though

I think the opposite. Ukrainian MoD declined that a Kinzhal was intercepted by Patriot missile.

Pikująca Szozda
Food for though

Yes, but yesterday Yurii Ihnat of the MoD denied it. So there can’t be both true. Patriot can’t shot down Huthi rockets is S.A. Not Kinzhal.

Tristan

Why can’t Patriot shoot down Kinzhal? Is there a reason? I mean, besides Russia lying about the characteristics of its “superweapon”. Maybe that missile is just crap.

Food for though

Because PAC2 has a fragmentation warhead but is a bit obsolete while the newer PAC3 has a hit to kill device but as far as I know they aren’t supersonic to make the kill. Does it sound good reason to you? In Yemen they have moderate success in downing simple rockets and basic drones. Do you really believe that they would down a supersonic missile even if it’s not the superweapon they say it is?

Max Beckhaus

A very fast object an easily be hit by a slower object. Ukraine is not jemen.

Food for though

In Yemen Partiot doesn’t perform very well. So if Ukraine uses the same weapon like S.A, then there will be the same outcome.

Tristan

30 years ago, patriots were intercepting Scud ballistic missiles.

As far as we know, Kinzhal are just air-launched ballistic missile (if you forget all the doubious russian claims, they are just modified iskander missiles), so Patriots should be able to intercept them.

Food for though

“Throughout the Gulf War there were continuing military and news reports of the Patriot’s success in intercepting and destroying Iraqi Scuds. The Army initially said the Patriot achieved an 80 percent success rate in Saudi Arabia and 50 percent in Israel. Those claims later were scaled back to 70 percent and 40 percent.” So not very accurate what you said. And it’s Scud B, a 1964 weapon!

Tristan

The fact that they did intercept ballistic missiles 30 years ago (even if it wasn’t 100% success rate) proves that they can do it. And have we any proof than Kinzhal is actually better than a 1964 weapon ?

All russia “super advanced weapons” (T-14, BMP-T, Su-57) have shown they were prototypes that did not perform well on the battelfield. Shall we be surprised if Kinzhal is the same ?

Food for though

Any proof that it was actually shot down or just rumours to help the morale before the counter offensive?

Kay

Is there evidence that it was a kinshal at all? Of course you can shoot them down before they detonate, because they lose a lot of speed in the last phase of flight and are therefore vulnerable to air defense. The 10 Mach propagated by Russia only applies during the main flight phase in the earth’s atmosphere. Defense just has to wait until the Kinshal is close to target…

Kay

… and then deploy a net of countermissiles in front of her.
I don’t know if it’s possible with Patriot. But IRIS-T would be able to do this because this system has a 360° radar system and theoretically never loses sight of the Kinshal from detection to impact

Kay

Why should a technologically underdeveloped country be able to build a missile system that is far superior to anything else. They can’t even build their T-14 Armata flawlessly.

Food for though

Are we talking about Russia that is the successor of USSR that was building ICBMs as opponent to the USA? USSR send a rocket in the space first and had the first space walk despite being underdeveloped compared to the USA. Also what new weapon doesn’t have flaws initially? Wasn’t the F35 being called flying bucket?

Kay

Back in the cold war and now before that war, Russia still traded extensively with the US and the rest of the West. Their rockets had many components that Russia imported. The Russians were usually faster when it came to installing these components. But meanwhile Russia no longer gets these important components. And that’s just the problem of the Russians…

Kay

… whose progress all these years has been based on exports. They have slept through their own technological development for decades.

That’s why Putin is now sucking up to the Chinese so much. Because he needs the exports from China.

Food for though

Your question was how a technologically underdeveloped country can make something advanced and I brought the example of USSR. Your replied, they relied on imports from advanced countries. None gives advancedtechnology but anyway. I don’t see why it’s relevant since when they developed Kinzhal they could do import of parts. It is an assumption that they have slept those decades. Maybe they haven’t.

Tristan

The point is: the Ukrainian claim is plausible. Is it actually true?

They provided photo of something that looks like a destroyed Kinzhal, but it could be an Iskandar. So, there is some evidence, but it isn’t compelling evidence.

Noelle

possibly. Patriot systems have long history of modernisations (and not only the missless, I mean: the whole systems). And RU throws supersonics on Ukr for a while, enough time to adapt. You do not need to ‘chase’ the missle, you need to put the interceptor in the place where missle will be at exact moment. While Kinzals (according to the decription) are fully capable of menouvering –>

Noelle

they do not seems to be programmed to do so as for now. So they behave just like very fast dumb missle. If Ukr starts to intercepts them (and they will) Ru will adapt and Ukr will have to.

AA systems at such scale are not solitary installations they communicate with numerous systems (radars, forward E-recon etc.). With ssonics reaction time is the challenge.

Food for though

And something more. Let’s say that the Patriot can down a Kinzhal and there is no need of THAAD that was made for that reason. If they can down 1 in every 10-15 missiles (don’t forget that Patriot radar has a field of view limited to about 120 degrees and that is why they upgrade it to LTAMDS.) does this make it reliable? Not, unless it can down at least 60-70%.

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