August 1, 2023

Invasion Day 524 – Summary

The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 1st August 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time). Sloboda Front includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of: Siverskyi Donets overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk…

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The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 1st August 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Berestove, Novoselivske

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

  • Artillery of Ukrainian Donbas Battalion shelled Russian positions in Serebryansky forest, showing that the enemy managed to capture more grounds in the area. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Soldiers of Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade advanced towards Kurdyumivka and almost reached the northern outskirts. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Avdiivka

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka, Pobieda, Staromayorske

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kherson Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Mentioned Units |

No unit mentioned.

Deployment Map

Our unique map showing units, operational sectors and defense lines

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Patrick

The Russians have taken control of Novoselivske (source: Russian MOD)

Max Beckhaus

So they didn’t.

JJ Gonzo

One street is not the entire settlement 😉 At least you are russian MoD 😉

Max Beckhaus

It seems U has hit the first oil tanker with a drone. Well, well, well, that is probably a war crime, but that can hurt Russia. If U can disrupt the oil tankers through the black sea by raising insurance rates, that would be something. Making it impossible, which they probably could, would be stopped by the west I am sure. Man, this is getting hard ball in the black sea. I guess the grain… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

Will be up and running soon.

Djdjbd

As an oil transport, tankers were (in prior wars) and still are legitimate targets. The military significance of oil is self evident. And so long as the ICC isn’t run exclusively by Greenpeace members, I can’t imagine Ukraine being charged for environmental damage either.

Max Beckhaus

Well, well, that makes it even better. I would bet a lot of money on free trade in the black sea pretty soon, if U even wants that. If U can stop oil export via the black sea, that could actually end the war.

Tristan

The tanker is Russian, and its cargo (oil) is a strategic ressource.

So it is avalid military target, not a war crime.

JJ Gonzo

Russians are commiting war crimes every single day. Oil tanker is a legitimate target and we count for more such hits.

Kay

Ukraine have been attacking Crimea for over a year. Such attacks will continue as long as UKR has not taken the south. The tourists get to see fireworks and the Russians lose their material and ammunition. Eventually they lose their bridge. Is it worth posting a newspaper article about? It only gets interesting when URK are close, everything else is just skirmishes

JohnnyBeerGr8

Man, youre harsh. Bridge is golden prize and anything happening with it is worth the article – and was suggested the bridge is being verified if not hit too. Ok, this time it was tanker, possibly not worth it, but like i said, after Novorosijsk, that we second in a row. Its a discussion forum and between updates, we discuss various topics…

Last edited 10 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
Max Beckhaus

Just a tanker? I think I have to go into this oil thing and Russia all over again. Kerch would be pretty damn nice, stopping oil export via the black sea could actually end the war with a real peace.

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
JohnnyBeerGr8

I dont know at the moment Max, some sources said carrying chemicals, not oil. Plus RU grey tanker fleet was supposedly operate in Pacific supplying China and India, not Black Sea. We must wait and see what media will dig up.

Max Beckhaus

Well, we are still far from stoping oil exports via the black sea, but if it would be done, it would be devastating. As stated below, most of Russia’s oil has to leave it via it’s western ports. It is not like Russia can pipe Caucasian oil to the Pacific. The complete oil export to India, Turkey goes via the black sea and some to china as well. If they have to use the northern… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

That would be an enormous detour, increasing costs a lot. The black sea is a major budget lifeline.

Max Beckhaus

It is getting hot in the black sea. I am getting a feeling that Russia is getting beaten badly there.

Pikująca Szozda

The Russian Navy is getting their asses handed to them by a country that barely has a navy. My take-away from this: an amphibious assault on Crimea is still unlikely, but it can’t be ruled out. At the very least, this will make Russia divert some resources to coastal defense.

Patrick

The c-offensive celebrated its two months today. The outlook is as a follow: 10 settlements captured (9 in June and 1 in July). That’s as much as we know for sure. The rest – attrition rate, losses, reserves – is a matter of debate.

Max Beckhaus

Rivnopil was in June? Not that it matters really… Another 5 in august would be my guestimate, but may be things speed up more end of August. I think it will be September before Ukraine tries something big, if they do at all.

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Patrick

Rivnopil was on June 26. I won’t do guestimates. I was sure Klishiivka would fall by end of July (because the heights and fortifications were captured by UKR around 20 July) and was wrong. Likewise Staromaiorske’s capture should have triggered Urozhaine’s fall. It’s been 8 days and RU still holds it. On the other hand, RU defenses could well collapse somewhere. Toss a coin.

JohnnyBeerGr8

there had been rain in Klishichivka area allegedly slowing opperations. But without knowing whats going on both R or U side, seem R wont give up and try recapture regardless disadvantageous position theyre in and for U, they maybe need some operational break after 2 continuous months in attack (maybe rotation?). -as an contribution factors

Last edited 10 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
JohnnyBeerGr8

Id be interesting after Jerome gets some geolocated info about Sloboda front, if situation got stabilized and beachhead is now contained near Nadia area and near Lyman Pershyi at Kupyansk. Or maybe wait after MOD will announce something they can share and stay patient for while longer.

JohnnyBeerGr8

re attrition rate: whole war probably does not generate enough R bodies. 25k/month losses (top months, avg is lower) is supposedly replaced by 20k of hires, volunteers and conscripts. I tend to doubt they already made 241k out of announced 400k, but 140-160k seem plausible. Some injured can even return, can happen they can slowly be building some additional reserve units, frontline is “steady”

JohnnyBeerGr8

not counting summer/winter conscript cycles, that alone should generate 110-140k each. Still being rumored that after 6 months being conscript, R forces them to sign contract -> ticket to UKR. But you probably would know about it more than me, i only read news and i tend to keep it in “unverified” shuffle until its verified.

Max Beckhaus

The whole Bodycount business is so deep in the grey zone, that I really gave up on that. Estonian intelligence things that Russia can compensate for losses with it’s current mobilization scheme. Currently I work with the hypothesis that Russia can throw as many people into the fight as they can somehow support logistically with the current budget. There may be some political restraint, but

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

I would be surprised if Putin does the same mistake concerning this twice. Russia may adapt here also, increasing the numbers eventually and giving the cannon fodder beter training. As long as the gear logistics keeps trending into Ukraines way while their average soldier stays better trained and survives longer, I don’t see how that will help Russia. The more soldiers you field, the more get

Max Beckhaus

Killed. And that has a Rubel price tag and a political price tag and an economical price tag, the workforce is already depleted. Russia needs some breakthrough, I would argue wonder, concerning the gear degeneration. Body’s may plug holes but they won’t solve the problem.

JohnnyBeerGr8

with continuing speculation, bodies buy time. I dont think theyre concerned about paying them if they pretend theyre missing. For obvious reasons they cant advance on grander scale, so either to wear down U or cash the chips and leave cassino with 4 regions no one is yet willing to agree on seem short term goal. R is crying for negotiation, on their terms, sadly. 2nd largerst army, funny.

JohnnyBeerGr8

and yet, logistic is playing a role, but probably its more food rations, than anything else. Cause they degraded with amount of vehicle equip, ammunition stock and they withdrew from substantial area and shortened routes, that should create less logistic demand. Ofc defensively speaking, I dont believe in logistic miracles during attack after 524 days they shown already.

JohnnyBeerGr8

have forgotten to account increased logistic demand due to rear attacks by himars and storm shadow, that you have more smaller amunition depots and therefore more routes to serve. Sry

Patrick

RU authorities are avoiding at all costs to conduct a new mobilization. Contract soldiers and volunteers may enable them to replenish their ranks but not more than that. Total force will probably remain roughly 300,000 for months to come. Which begs the question of their mid- to long term objectives, which would seem to exclude large-scale offensive operations.

Kay

You only have to look at the defensive barriers of the Russians. Their aim is not to leave the conquered areas. This is the lowest common denominator of harming Ukraine. After the conquest of further areas has failed, at least the occupied regions must be held. And 300,000 soldiers are enough for that.

JohnnyBeerGr8

agree, i believe youre right, although given winter offensive and now counterattacks, i dont believe R will give up on initiative or attacking anytime soon, which should help U to pick next offensive direction after they replenish. On the otherside, RU will dug in on entire front as in Zapor.region. I can only hope that longer RU soldier should stay in trenches more cracks will apear at home.

Patrick

I also wonder about the situation on the UKR side. The enthusiasts/volunteers have already enrolled and are dying on the front. For all the talk about patriotism the share of those being reluctantly mobilized is likely growing by the day. The corruption schemes that we occasionally read about and videos of brutal arrests of people unwilling to fight are just the tip of the iceberg.

Max Beckhaus

I don’t know if it is the tip of the iceberg, I am to far away, but I am pretty sure that Ukraine won’t run into political problems because of mobilization sooner than Russia. The support for ‘on to victory ‘ is still overwhelming. I think zelenski and co will be ready for peace sooner than the people of Ukraine. There is practically no historical precedent for people fighting for their freedom

Max Beckhaus

And their country wile being supported like they are, giving up before the aggressor. Ukraine will have an advantage here for ever.

JohnnyBeerGr8

from factual point of view for sure, but there will be time to review after war. Similar happened in WW1 for involved parties or in US Vietnam. I still think (eg. increased equip received from west, money maintaining the U economy/state alive), that U gets stronger to endure while on defense. Big question is if it will be enough to kick R out in offense. Could be stalemate or could erode in time.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Novorossijsk, RU claim no issues, footage circulating online showed a ship resembling the “Olenegorsky Gornyak” landing warship listing to one side and being towed back to port in the aftermath of the attack.

Last edited 10 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
Triglav

It’s almost as if… the Kremlin would lie to us

JohnnyBeerGr8

its been said for very long time that if there wouldn´t be people dying in the process, this vranyo mentality would be top of the absurd humor and better than some of the Beckett´s play (waiting for Godot).

JohnnyBeerGr8

“We know that they are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, we also know that they know we know they are lying too, they of course know that we certainly know they know we know they are lying too as well, but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.” Aleks.… Read more »

Patrick

Several Russian military bloggers have lashed out at the MOD for ridiculing itself by refusing to admit what everybody saw. Nihil novi sub sole.

Max Beckhaus

Well, they know that they lie. Some even seem to know that this just may be the core of the problem. But most Russians probably think, that this is a lie aswell… The biggest lie of it all is probably, that they believe somebody somewhere in the Kremlin still knows the truth. I think they don’t and keep failing in their own net of lies, constantly fueling corruption and mismanagement.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Teplinskij congratulated on VDV day “leaking” that 5000 VDV injured returned back to front, and 3500 injured that refused to leave frontline (which if true and if are not the same people, are up to 8,5k official admitted injured). Independent media counted nearly 2k graves. So if they had between 45-60 (from 2015 and later), thats significant losses we know of. Even if replaced, quality degrades.

JohnnyBeerGr8

also, it did not say how many injured VDV refused to return neither how many died or how many injured got injured on multiple occasion.Due to the unknown RUS replacements its hard to count combat loss percentage

Max Beckhaus

Zalushni said this year: Every big war gets started by professionals and ended by ex civilians. The Russian professional infantry of the vdv and marines does not exist as elite anymore. The same holds true for Ukraine. What I find interesting is, that it seems that telpinsky is still there, as in not purged, and that he still undermines MoD Russia’s media policy with admitting those casualties.

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
JohnnyBeerGr8

exactly, as if it was intentional message. I still count him as Surovikhin/Wagner wing, so cannot assume he did he wishes to end the war, rather undermining Kreml. Still, he was reinstated this year after relieving of duty in summer 2022. Must have good connections to earn trust for coming back.

Last edited 10 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
Max Beckhaus

As far as I know he was already reinstated as commander probably when surovikin took over and was responsible for the defense of west cherson, where many vdv units where. So he was also responsible for the retreat, which Oberst Reisner, the YouTube famous Austrian, called so incredible, that he was sure that it was a negotiated retreat. T. then had another speech I think for Christmas, that made

Max Beckhaus

him disappear and repeat after the failed offensive I think. So surovikin stands for the best strategic decessions Russia did till now, the cherson retreat and Surovikin line and T is the one that exercised it. So those two stand for real military reasonable business. Let’s hope T. will get demoted again. Last we know he was responsible for the south before the mutiny…

Max Beckhaus

I would conclude that these developments are the best part of the mutiny for Ukraine other than that Wagner is gone for now. Btw, very interesting that zalushni keeps saying that he only reads everything of Gerasimov and that he is a sly and dangerous opponent. Sometimes I think that’s a strategy to keep him where he is… But probably Shoigu is the weak link and zalushni tells the truth?

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
JohnnyBeerGr8

So far Gerasimov had been highly appreciated as theoretic and innovator in terms of BTG and hybrid warfare and had quite a credit. If his problem is Russian system not able to follow his ideas or he became product of the corrupt system too, i cant tell. BTG definitely failed last year and R returned back to division system. Teplinskij is highly credited for being good commander and one of best

JohnnyBeerGr8

commanders R could potenitaly have for defense, delaying and deception tactics. Somewhat relegated commander of 58thCA had credit too, gone. Surovikhin gone. I cannot wish more than R will get rid off its capable commanders, gives breathing space for UAF. For me as an outsider, seem that in R corporate, there are fractions that counterweight each other and loyalty is valued more than capability.

Max Beckhaus

Well yes, BTGs failed and the hybrid warfare feels like it turned on Gerasimov. The Russians seem to actually believe what they keep trolling at everybody. May be part of the answer how they made themself believe that this would be done in 3 days. I just fail to see what makes Gerasimov a successful commander in chief. The loyalty over competence problem

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

Combines with vranyo to the absurdity of those being sidelined that dare to face and talk reality. And that cake is topped by corruption, which fits nicely, since everybody lies to everybody, you might aswell get some money with lies… Vranyo is probably the core of that epic failure Russia produces.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Yes, it makes you wonder how mafia and terrorist state can openly threaten the world with nukes in state owned TV. It almost makes you wish they just to launch them to get over it with such bs.

JohnnyBeerGr8

in terms of hybrid warfare, its hard to count all rabits that still run on the field. Definitely there were politicians paid by R (G. Schroeder is lovely example, AFD), we dont know them all. There is definitely shift in Africa of perceiving bad West and grateful to former Soviet Union during decolonization,civil war in Syria, Lybia. “border states” – RO, BG, SVK, CZE, SRB and others with unrest.

JohnnyBeerGr8

im not paranoid to see russians everywhere, but just seeing protesters sentiment protesters is anti-system or pro-russian naratives, i simply dont know how far and deep its been running for years.

Kay

In Africa there is no change in thinking. The West is more popular and respected among the African people than Russia. Why else do the refugees all want to go to Europe and not to Russia if they supposedly think Russia is so great. The fact is that Russia can always play strong and powerful in front of African governments or rebels because Africans are weak anyway.

Kay

In the end, the African governments are only concerned with strengthening the absurdly weak armies with Russian soldiers so that the usually better rebels cannot take power. And vice versa it is the same, insurgents strengthen their rebel army with Russians so that they can, for example, overthrow governments. And Russia is allowed to exploit the country for it.

JohnnyBeerGr8

in my opinion you underestimate the scale Wagnerites operate in Africa. You also underestimate that at least third of african states are run by military, autocracy and they lean to their buddies and last not least, for corrupt regime its simply matter of offer they get, no matter if from west, RU or China. So refugees vote by legs, regimes by advantages they can get for themselves.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Look at French involvement in Africa for last 15 years and tell me you dont see the trend of losing influence there. On UK side doesnt get more better if we take SAR as member Brics or debate if they should apprehend Putin, should he arrive and Ramaposa being in Moscow in last week. Thank god, that Egypt is acting as normal country for once – cooperating with ISR, Isl.brotherhood under control.

Kay

Russians are the last to back into a country for peace. On the contrary, wherever Russia is, it has never been better and more peaceful, but has only gotten worse and worse. Without sound economy and diplomatic promises, Russia has nothing to offer but military. That is an absolute indictment for such a large country.

Question

Hello!

Might be an „exaggerated“ question, but are mines like the „super weapon“ in standard combat these days?

UKR, when I look e.g to Vuhledar or RUS to the south fronts, it‘s always defined as the main problem (beside bad coordination) and these „mine clearing vehicles“ seem to be easy to attack by drones, so, well the cluster munition now as addition, but is their no easier way to handle

Question

them?

Well to be a bit more precise „super DEFENSIVE“ weapon.

So like the drones on the other hand are more the cheaper offensive super weapon.

To summarize, for me it feels like, mines exist for so long (compared to the last war’s) and still after all the developing their seems to be no good way to handle them, or are the ones, but not used in this war?

Question

*are their ones (sorry)

Question

And 2. question:

I only hear from the „mine clearing“ vehicles from the ukr/western equipped army, how do Russians clear them (beside the daily drive-in?)

Djdjbd

Both sides clear mines more or less the same way: blow them up with explosives or purposely set them off using specialized vehicles that resemble armored farming equipment. It’s slow and dangerous work. Ukraine also uses US RAAM shells to scatter anti tank mines in front of and behind advancing Russian armor even after Russia clears a path. Brutal stuff. Areas will remain dangerous for decades.

Djdjbd

To add: The mines in the RAAM shells can be set to self destruct after a time. I’m not sure the failure rate on the individual mines though. Even in peace time, de-mining is extremely difficult and dangerous. Southeast Asia and North Africa are examples of regions with millions of unaccounted for mines. Mines are effective but their low cost leads to their reckless use.

Max Beckhaus

The the big problem concerning the mines is the combination with new battle awareness of drones, which makes them the new intelligence super weapon for offensive and defensive, plus lots of artillery that exploits that awareness. So you get seen and targets more easily while clearing minefields or getting stuck in them. NATO would destroy and surprises artillery before clearing minefields with

Max Beckhaus

Air superiority and precision munitions. And lastly, it is the incredible mass of mines used. Russia just has tons and tons of it, as of every military kit.

Djdjbd

Indeed, unfortunately Russia’s bite and mine to oblivion strategy is very effective when Ukraine has insufficient means to protect their mine clearing equipment. Russia has mined certain sectors in a way that suggests even they don’t want anything to do with the territory afterwards.

Question

Hello! Thanks for your answers guys!

Two questions to the Cherson Front:

1) After the past event with the dam is the map still correct with showing the river from Nova to Cherson or like, are the changes so small that it wouldn‘t make a different on the map?

2) Any Information about the last left edge of the southern front, like the opposite side of Stanislav? Are there mines over mines?

Question

To 2) So like fighting from the left side in direction of Chulalivka, but than the UKR is missing boats or their might be no landing because of the water mines?

Max Beckhaus

No, the maps are not correct, where the lake was you have a river and a wide area with no vegetation and some lakes and smaller canals. Basically an open killing field for military purposes. Very possible that Russia mines some of that. They can remote mine as well. First I thought that opens up opportunities for Ukraine, but I was wrong, I guess.

Kay

This is neutral territory… Just because it’s red on the map doesn’t mean the Russians are there. Access to this area is occupied by Russians, so everything behind it is Russians too. If there is only one access to a 1000km² area (the sea is no access) and I protect the access, then this area also belongs to me in the war. Even though I may never set foot there.

Kay

So there is nothing that can conquer Ukraine. They could indeed cross over, but then they stand on fallow land and can’t buy anything with it as long as this main entrance is held by the enemy.
The Russians will surely be in Herojske. Anyone who is there already has the western side safely in their hands. Everything that comes to Herojske is a nature reserve.

Triglav

This is the second time in the week that a poccky factory is on fire – this is the right strategy! Ukrainian drones need to attack the Russian industry, especially the defence industry

Max Beckhaus

I hear China wants to attend the Ukrainian peace formula summit in Saudi Arabia. That sounds very interesting indeed. It will also be interesting how the Erdogan Putin Meeting will go concerning the grain deal. Erdogan can ‘convince’ Putin pretty easily to come back to it, if he wants. Basically the whole Ural Oils go thru the Bosporus now…

Kay

There is no oil pipeline from Russia to Turkey… You may be talking about gas, but gas is not oil.

Max Beckhaus

Oil is generally transported by tankers, not pipelines. Urals oils leave Russia through the black sea in direction India, Turkey, etc. There is also a gas pipeline from Russia to Turkey via which Europe still buys Russian gas.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Just to be clear, both Turkstream (and its planned SouthStream) and from Azerbaijan are gas pipelines, but believe Max said tankers for oil transport and in this case hes right. Still europe is buying russian oil, from India and other re-sellers. The point of it was not to cut off from RU oil completely, but damage the pricing and direct export to EU.

Kay

Basically it doesn’t matter where we get our raw materials from and if it’s more than 3 corners from Russia. The fact is that the export to Europe has not been damaged in any way. On the contrary, new avenues have been opened up for other export countries, which are now benefiting from it. Thank god Russia doesn’t have the biggest reserves as you might think.

Kay

So you put it back together in the way that suits you best. However, most of the oil is still distributed via pipelines. The many tankers only compensate for where there are no pipelines. And besides, a ship is far too slow to transport more oil overall than pipes. Upstairs they’re talking about oil and now all of a sudden they’re talking about gas… *lol*

Max Beckhaus

I was and am talking about oil and you obviously have no idea about the oil business. Anyways, the point is that Russia is selling most of its Urals Oils, those are the western Russian Brends, via the black see right now.

Max Beckhaus

And to be prices, Europe buys refined oil products in India, not the Russian crude.

Kay

First it was oil, then gas and now oil again… Arguing with you is just a waste of time because you keep presenting your half-knowledge as the only logical consequence. But completely ignoring the opinions of others. I can talk to a wall there.

Max Beckhaus

You brought in the gas, my friend, I just reacted to it. If you want to believe that oil is sold via pipelines and not tankers, do it.

Kay

Only in your world oil is not transported in pipelines. For all others there is e.g. the Druzhba, Trans-Alaska, Keystone, EACOP, Omsk-Irkutsk or Baltic Pipeline.

Max Beckhaus

I never said it’s not sold via pipelines, buddy, you were the one saying it’s not sold via tankers. I said and do say that Russia sells most of its Urals via tankers and the black sea. Don’t believe it if you like to do so.

Max Beckhaus

I’ll try it one more time. The cheapest way to transport oil is by ship. That is why all big oil exporters generally export their oil by oil tankers. Obviously you do use pipelines, trains and trucks on land.
The same holds true for Russia and since Europe is out of the mix most oil tankers now leave Russia from it’s black sea ports.
Cheers.

Kay

In your last 6 posts you have always written the opposite of what you actually mean. You really have a talent for this…

Max Beckhaus

India is also in, I kind of like that.

Question

Hello!

Can someone tell me how much strength our NATO really has? I mean, we are always defined as super strong (of course with the more experienced technologies), but when I look in my home country (or several neighbors) each one has problems finding persons who want to be a soldier, and so we seem to have problems in the future compared to the ones where it duty to get 1y of experience or so

Question

By the way, sorry if my questions are a bit out of the direct context (like not directly related to the actual topic) but I like all the persons which already helped me, liked the way here and as long as Jerome don‘t say „Please only Ukraine related stuff“, I hope, I can ask them.

Max Beckhaus

Yes, most of NATO is made up from post heroic societies, meaning none of us is dumb enough to want to go and die for some stupid bullshit. In Germany people start understanding that we still better be ready if some other dumbasses are ready to die for stupid bullshit. So I would guess, if the shit starts cooking, there will be some ready, and some more ready to learn.

Max Beckhaus

And I do believe that NATO is untouchable, right now, but that may change in the future. We better keep our eyes open.

Kay

Don’t listen to his opinion, he’s just trying to troll you…

dolgan

dont worry about that.

Look at ukrain. before russian attack, people try to avoid military service by all the way possible. And in one day, it change because people of the need.

It was the same in russia. They try to do a 300K professionnal land army. they failed because nobody want to join.

dolgan

It change because of the perception of the need .

Patrick

According to Medvedev who was quoting the MOD, 231,000 people have signed contracts with the Russian army since January 1. It can’t all be fake.

Pikująca Szozda

Of course it can. In fact, we should assume that number is fake. Lying is the default setting of Russian government officials. If one of them accidentally tells the truth, it’s a major scandal. It’s been that way since Catherine The Great, maybe even longer.

dolgan

its possible.

but i talk to russian plan a few years ago.

Noelle

it is alliance. The strenght of an alliance is more than just a sum of pieces. It is ability to leverage the scale, specialisation and divided (and effectively lowered) cost. E.g. PL/LIT/LAT/ECT does not need to invest absurd amount of money in the fleet because UK/FR/IT (not mentioning US) has it. CK does not need to invest in armored divisions because others does etc.

Question

Hello!

What are your opinions on the occupied power plant situation? Could it really be that some day their will be some horrific event like it happened with the dam?

I only remember an article where it says that such an action would hurt (because of the near) Belarus as well, but it seems like, as long as P is the boss, everything can happen? (Beside the points where China said „No!“)

Taymyr 74

If Russia has to leave Energodar, then yes – undoubtedly, the nuclear power plant will be blown up or at least damaged. But, not before!

dolgan

dont worry about that. The plant is stop . Russian will probably sabotate the plant and steal uranium and all they could.

But no nuclear risk. The worst possible is local pollution or massiv pollution of the delta.

if they try to do something stupid and stronger, it take time , they cant hide it and it will just be another fukushima (no death). But in this case, nato will stop them before.

Last edited 10 months ago by dolgan
dolgan

public opinion understand nothing about nuclear risk. No european politic will accept to let russian do a fukushima in europe.

Its also a china red line.

Dominik

… on the other hand, the western community has the difficulty be stable in the front against the russian aggression. I think the main bases is the fear loosing the buffer “Ukraine” that safes the alliance. And in USA there are elections one year ahead…

Triglav

“Buffer state”? What are you talking about? Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland and Latvia all border Russia and/or Belarus and they are anything but buffer states. The only country wanting to prop up a buffer state is Russia, but it’s just an imperialistic excuse to (try to) control Ukraine

Dominik

Hello!
in my opinion are both sides waiting for a political break or interception on the other side.
In fact, on Russian side it could be the death or strong illness of putin (his willness and pyramidal system bases on his personal connections and methods of controls that might be difficult to copy to an other person, as brutal this other person may be).

Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

Man, it really didn’t take long until Poland is showing its classical pis face again.

Noelle

it’s an election year, expect quite ridiculous stuff goin’.

NXP

Could you elaborate?

Max Beckhaus

They are complaining how ungrateful Ukraine is, even though Ukrainians say thank you everytime they see a microphone, while their people are dying for the security of all Europeans and surely Poland. All because those ungrateful Ukrainians actually want to sell there harvest to the EU. This nationalistic egoism policies are classical pis, if you ask me.

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Marcin

You have no idea what are you talking about. If PiS loses incoming elections there will be no Ukr in future. Tusk is is betrayer and if he win you can be sure there will be 3rd WW. As for “nationalistic egoism policies” i’m sure you are trying to accuse Us Poles about something you have foggy idea.

Last edited 10 months ago by Marcin
Max Beckhaus

With all due respect, and I have a lot, since Poland is the number one helper in relative terms, but a third world war will not break out because of an election in Poland nore will Ukraine be lost, and surely not because of Tusk. And still in my world no European has the right to accuse Ukraine of ungratefulness and surely not openly via some interview. They are dying.

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Marcin

If you don’t have full view of the picture you can’t say what will be next. I’m telling you if Tusk win there will be no help for Ukraine in numbers like now and you can be sure he will be doing everything with his power to get closer with Putin again when he was prime minister in 2008-2014. His principals are in Berlin.His political party was founded thanks to money from Germany.

Triglav

Yeah I don’t buy this, it sounds like PiS election propaganda

Marcin

You don’t have to buy anything this is simply fact.

Marcin

I don’t wanna say whole story but there is so much to tell that i didn’t even scratch surface. You have to live here in Poland to understand slithest nuanses his politic moves.

Last edited 10 months ago by Marcin
Marcin

Ukrainian civilans with OUN/UPA during WW2 1943 murdered bestially 200k polish citizens (kids, pregnant womens, elders) with pithforks, hatchets , they skinning them alive despite this we took under our roofs ukrainian and we are helping them like no other coutry in Europe. But Ukr have problems with saying this loud.I undrestand there is war on thier land we know this.

JohnnyBeerGr8

where does it start and where does it end? They could say Poles killed 100k UA during the very same period you´re complaining about. Germans killed 6M Poles, Russian well over several hundred thousands,not counting czar era, just 1919-later. European history is blody and also complicated. It does not justify victims, its just you can brag about it forever and your angrer will never end.

JohnnyBeerGr8

and it goes well from 1867 from polish autonomy in Galicia, through turmoils WW1, through 1924 Grabski bill and then both German and Soviets using both nations against each other or directly pushing both over the limit. Again, my point is not to blame Polish nation. Whole 19th century was rise of various nationalistic tendencies leading to WW1. OUN/UPA is bad example how far nationalism gets.

Marcin

Killed in defend and murdered there are two different things.

JohnnyBeerGr8

so you said, I wont defend UPA/OUN, these things should never taken place. I tried to tell you, that what you complain about is result, but you dont speak about reasons or roots of it. I tried to question, that both nationalities had problems to live next to each other for decades and it blasted during era when there was no law, neither from G or R oppressors minded what happens to any of them.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Soviets were backing up Ukrainians against Poles and once UPA/OUN wanted independence without Soviets, then they bathed them in blood. Ukraine suffered holodomor/hunger caused by Soviet in 30s. Like i said, you can find “revenge” synopsis here and there. History is quite long, so where it does start and where it does ends?

Marcin

That’s why I don’t want to start over, because it’s buried deep. We have a history of uprisings and bloodshed from 1648-1654 till 1989. We are nation who never tryied to erasefrom face of the earth or enslave others. But we woun’t let anyone take shiet in our face and saying this is ok. Thats all. And one more thing i know that some of Ukr politicians are not transparent same as tusk and his… Read more »

Marcin

And World War II startet when Germany and the USSR invaded Poland on September 1, 1939.
If you forgot this fact.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I like factual accuracy, USSR invaded Poland on 17th SEP 1939. Not on 1st- doesnt change the fact it was result of Ribb-Mol pact. And yes, Russians dont like to hear it, cuz they brag how big war started in 41 with Patriotic war, but they essentially started it on side of Germans. Russia can always claim it was pact agains capitalists hoping to divert GER to West. Dance of two devils.

JohnnyBeerGr8

they also like to ignore joint parade in Brest-Litevsk on 22nd of SEP 1939 – marching and smiling how they beaten old enemy, that in their eyes should got its independence and took revision of ww1 and Versailles treaty. Well, such is life. Today Russia is happy if their logistic wont colapse 150km from borders, fail at Kharkov and dream about Portuguese shore in a week.

NXP

Buahaha… depending on the circumstances, Tusk is either a Russian or a German agent/spy. It is so poorly constructed propaganda that it’s hard to believe there are people who believe in this dumb s**t.

Marcin

Jerome I’ve been following your site for a long time and just reading what others say. But when someone speaks badly of my country and is wrong, I cannot stand by and watch. I would be a good member of my society and do nothing? Will you also stand idly by if this concerned your country ?

Marcin

Did i said spy ? No he is simply betrayer. Propaganda is working on you apparently if you belive Tusk. And you ppl’s are not living in Poland but you are telling me who tusk is ? Have you Lived when he was prime minister and seling everything which my country had to anynone who just put money on table ? No. So i know better who this tusk and his party po are capable… Read more »

Last edited 10 months ago by Marcin
NXP

You know nothing and you’re simply spreading lies and dumb propaganda.

COLIN

How many million Ukraniqn refugees hàve sought sanctuary in Poland.

Noelle

from where you got that silly idea? The PiS is actually (with winning points for ‘Confederacy’ and other even more reactionary parties) quite putinesque, just – fortunatelly for Poland – absurdly incompetent.

Noelle

As I wrote before (posts in moderation queve, apparently I am on Jerome’s temporary bad-kid list) – it’s an election year. They do anything possible, to stay in power. And while there is no political party with either bad history or quite present stupidity in Poland (well, hello UK?), almost anything with exception of complete reactionary retards and Putin’s lovers would be better for PL and Ukr.

COLIN

Not as simple as that. All EU nations protect their farmers to some extent.

Max Beckhaus

It is one thing to protect your farmers or national interests, it is a completely other thing to accuse Ukraine of ungratefulness because they try to help their farmers while their Soldiers are dying while defending our European security structure. I also doubt that Tusk would support Ukraine less and I would be happy if he gets elected. Anyways, cheers!

Max Beckhaus

Their Soldiers and civilians I should have said.

Marcin

Then You and I have nothing in common. You are on the other side of the barrcade and not on this good one for sure.

Max Beckhaus

Well, we are probably both human, i suppose we both support Ukraine and we borh live in the EU. Other than that i also believe in the rule of law and dislike autotharian tendencys and i like politicains that try to make friends with their neighbours instead of using any ugly past to fuel hatered instead. So yes, i guess there some uncommon things. Neither Ukraine nore germany are your enemies.

Max Beckhaus

Quite the oposite, we could be good friends, if you could put the past aside. Neither me, nore my parents did anything bad to any polish nore will my children. To call the ukrainians ungrateful because they try to protect their interests in the middle of a national catastrophe while they pay with lifes for our security is just cheap.

Noelle

^^^ yep.

Kay

Stop arguing with that troll, you’re just feeding him fodder. He does not accept the opinions of others, arranges everything as it suits him best and constantly tries to teach other people. Discussing with him is hopeless, because he always thinks he’s right and when there’s proven false statements, he denies it anyway.

dolgan

May be, you are a little bit extremist in your political opinion?

Noelle

you are so gently, indeed.

NXP

Marcin is uneducated naive receiver dumb propaganda. That’s all.

Question

Hello!

Might be a silly question, because they can be seen for so long, but they blue/red arrows on the maps, are these trenches of UKR/RUS?

And 1) why are nothing of these on the Cherson Front (RUS)
2) No UKR ones on the Sloboda front or is it because the should be hidden?

Thank you!

Spiderlag

The blue and red arrows are representing attacks of the UKR and RUS. When you see in the description: “RUS attacked X city but failed”, you usually will see a red arrow indicating the location.

1) Kherson has none because there isn’t any attacks by both sides recently (at least as far as we know);
2) Slodoba is the same thing, except that there isn’t attacks by UKR there, only RUS ones

Question

Thank you!

But well, was my fault, I used the wrong english term, my questions directs to the long lines of triangles which can be find on nearly every map.

Kay

The red triangles are RUS defense lines. It’s not all trenches, in built-up areas you can also use houses, roads or bunkers as defense lines. But most of them are probably ditches. I can’t tell you why there aren’t any pictures on the Cherson front. But I assume that there are also strong RUS lines there. There are more UKR than shown on the maps. But they won’t be published, to protect soldiers

dolgan

in kherson region, its more small stronghold at strategic point. not really ligns.

And there are a ‘coast’ defensive lign.

Question

Thanks Kay!

Question

Thank you Jerome!

As I‘m one of the persons who use an old smartphone (if you remember the ones who had first problems when you introduced your new map format) the link shows the same former behavior, leads to a neverending „loading“ screen.

dolgan

UKR defensiv position are not publish by occidental osint for evident reason. and russian osint doesnt have easy access to satellite image.

But in this area, UKR build a defensiv lign this winter because they expect a massiv russian offensiv who never happens. its on kupiansk side of the river.

And russian also have small defensiv lign in the north east of kupiansk.

dolgan

And both camp have solid “fighting” trench everywhere in this sector who is one of the more activ since one year. The frontline doesnt move a lot , but attack and counterattacks never stop.

Question

Thank You!

Kay

Here again some will surely say that the UKR is doing well just because the RU lost more material.Realistically, unfortunately, there are too many RUS in the country and the confiscated area is simply too large to be able to conquer it completely. Even if the RUS seem like that, they arent stupid either.
If things continue like this, the UKR will not be finished with the reconquest in three year

Kay

If one village was taken, the RUS took another somewhere on the front. It’s been like this for weeks now.
It’s like in an American diner when the coffee cup is almost empty. It is always refilled.

dolgan

not really. since bakmut, only russian progress is near kremina. nothing important . And they already start to loose this gains.

JohnnyBeerGr8

if you tell me UKR will free all (including Donbas, Crimea) their territory in 3 years, then i take it all, twice. Russia seem wont run out of people anytime soon, plus its soviet surpluses in barrels, ammo, tanks. So either soldiers start revolt or change of regime otherwise bloody reconquista, but they have no other choice, otherwise Rashist stay forever…

tom

this is very simple. war will not end until putler lives. once he will die, doesnt matter the way, everything will collapse at rus.

Ppp

Then there is the ECONOMY. Ukraine may not actually recapture ground on the front, but when the Russian economy falls apart, they will have to surrender. Like the Germans in the First World War – their troops were in enemy territory, but they lost.
Regards.

JohnnyBeerGr8

im not that optimistic RU will fall apart, there is multiple examples with North Korea, Iran or good old Soviet Union. Ofc it will have significant implification, but even in “closed” economy with internal market (which isnt and RU can trade with Asia on some scale degree), they will still be able to run for very long time. What will have direct implication is the amount and quality of mil.goods

Max Beckhaus

I would be cautious to judge the counteroffensive before it is over. Concerning the outlook, a lot is still decided in Washington, but right now I doesn’t look like they want Ukraine to win, at least not anytime soon. Concerning Russia most numbers point to 2024 for a more or less end of soviet reserves and diminishing budget buffers. Economically I would estimate that Russia will go from

Max Beckhaus

Bleeding to seriously wounded with the start of 2025 at current pace of the war. At that point it will also be surely down to military production capabilities of Russia. Since Russia is also adapting it is hard to say where the low point in Russian military equipment will be, I would guess next year. Historically wars like this tend to stay stuck for a while, once they are stuck. If Ukraine

Max Beckhaus

Can’t move the Frontline considerably this year, it probably won’t be able to do it next year either. It think Ukraine will be in even better shape in 24, but Russia is also adapting and it can dig in another winter further and take an even more defensive stand. I still think Ukraine has a very decent chance of liberating the south till autumn 24, because I think Biden, Sullivan want them to.

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

Other than that I would not bet on Russia falling apart, but it may happen. I am with Tom, that cards could change, once Putin is dead or in retirement. At current western support and Chinese involvement, which means that Ukraine will start swimming in munitions from 25 on, I would guess that Russia will be desperate to find a way out of this in 3 years, it really should be all ready, but it… Read more »

JohnnyBeerGr8

yes Max, i agree, i only wanted to point out that counting on Russia going broke is not something realistic, cause R wont starve, wont run out of steel, oil and other strategic material. So basically back to will contest, if R people/soldiers would like to keep going (they didnt after 10y in AFG), or Putin or his successor would stick with this imperialistic dream to carry on.

Kay

Almost all modern wars have been ended by negotiation or surrender. Surrender requires negotiation… No one’s goal is to drive the Russians out of the country by defeating them. Not even Selensky says so. His goal is to liberate the occupied territories, but not through victory or defeat.

JohnnyBeerGr8

the way i understand your point is that you contradict yourself. Driving them completely out is an U victory. Having R to keep land is victory for UKR staying as is (not R puppet), but still loss, cause they lost more territory since 2022. And R wants to still keep it, so they want defeat U in all areas (target currently more away than was in 2022).

Kay

The bottom line is that everyone’s goal (except for Russia at the moment) is to let the Russians voluntarily leave the country. The occupied areas will then also be liberated again, just as Selensky thinks.
By demonstrating strength, one gets to the point where the weaker one wants to negotiate. So the plan of Ukraine (and the West) is to bring Russia into a state of negotiation readiness

Kay

On the one hand by internal conflicts, a weak economy and political skirmishes and on the other hand by military superiority. In both areas, Russia is not yet in the status of readiness. But at some point it has to happen to prevent Russia from collapsing. Russia only has one means of pressure, and that is the military.

Kay

Ultimately, even Putin knows that there will come a point, but the longer that point can be delayed, the more scorched earth it can leave behind in satisfaction.

Russia is a cockroach that you have to step on many times before it finally dies.

Max Beckhaus

I am not so sure about what Putin knows or believes. I would also put my money on Russia having to be forced out of Ukraine. I do not see how that can be achieved other than militarily and that seems a stretch at current parameters. I simply don’t see how the decision makers in the Kremlin could be forced into negotiating a retreat. Tell me, for what? For the better of Russia? Surely not,

Max Beckhaus

they give a s about it. As long as the world needs and buys Russian commodities, there is no economical way to stop it. You have to beat Russia militarily out of Ukraine until it has to retreat or you have to live with it keeping what it has at some moment or something changes dramatically in the Kremlin.

Kay

Cut the raw materials argument. Europe will be independent of RUS and other countries will get raw materials at bargain prices. Besides, RUS has to keep its raw material industry running, which requires high investments. In order to transport the gas to countries outside the EU, pipelines have to be built, which will take a few more years.

Kay

The export of raw materials includes infrastructure, almost all routes go to Europe and they are currently almost idle. Since the sanctions, commodity sales have collapsed by over 70%. RUS believes the world depends on them, but that’s not the case, which many are slowly realizing.
The greatest means of exerting pressure is what takes the longest time to take effect, sanctions

Kay

At some point RUS will negotiate for the withdrawal of these and then they will have to offer something. Blackmail with the grain deal didn’t work, so it will boil down to negotiating it. It is not for nothing that Putin has been demanding the lifting of sanctions for many months, through blackmail. It’s starting to kick in and coming in like a slow tornado…

Max Beckhaus

Well Kay, your argument is valid concerning gas, but that’s it. The amount of oil exported by Russia hardly dropped a barrel and it won’t either because the world needs or better buys it, and nobody will or wants to stop it. It is sold at discounts and you may be right that Russian oil production will decline with time. That will hurt Russian budget and state finances, but it won’t force Russia

Max Beckhaus

To do anything. It’s still enough to wage war at some level and to keep the elites rich and who cares about the mass of Russians… It will help to lower the possible war effort, but it won’t force them into anything.

Zhorik Vartanov

Yes of course, the Russian economy is in tatters. Some weakhearted dissidents and Russian propagandists keep saying that Russian GDP PPP is in fact increasing, while Ukrainian is nosediving, but it’s obviously 1. impossible and 2. irrelevant.

Zhorik Vartanov

I totally agree. I mean it might end even earlier, but wars always end after a leader’s demise. For example, even The Hundreds Years War ended after Philip VI died. Well, it kind of continued for another 100 years or so, but it ended eventually

tom

I really doubt that it will end earlier. russians are fighting because of propaganda which is driven by regime which is driven by putler. secondly for everyone excepted Ukraine war is beneficial: -USA is weaking china by weaking rus -putler can consolidate power and rull out any democratic movement etc.

Zhorik Vartanov

Oh sure, the only reason why Russians fight. Putin is a Dark Lord who is holding the Russians together by emanations of some dark magic and when he is gone Russians will simply disperse in vast Eurasian steppes. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if there a group of courageous misfits hiking through Siberian forests on a mission to drop a piece of jewelry in one of Kamchatka volcanoes.

dolgan

And what did you expect? a pacific election? or one of the oligark take the power and all the country follow him without problem?

Zhorik Vartanov

I see a political turmoil, sure (cannot elaborate on that, not smart enough, sorry). But I have a feeling, right now Russians do not fight for Putin. They just like German tanks in their sights (and yes, sending Leopards was the best political gift to Putin, ironically, the best chance of Russia collapsing would be a quick win in Ukraine). Similar sentiment applies for Ukrainians and Zelensky

tom