Invasion Day 444 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 13th May 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Masyutivka, Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka, Bakhmut, Stupochky, Bila Hora
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Fighting continues in the area of the base of 54th Mechanized Brigade.
- Ukrainian troops pushed the enemy away from the Chajkovskoho street. (source)
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka, Vodyane
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No activity reported.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
Looking for an interactive map? We got you covered. Visit our original Deployment map.
If you would like to use our maps in your project, video or any other media, please visit Invasion maps page for more information.
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
6 Kinzhals shot down??? Hahaha, TKO for Russia’s deep striking capabilities. The sky above Kiev is officially closed. Wow!
A stronghold of the 2nd Army Corps of separatists from the LPR was destroyed near Klishchiivka.
Result:
The liquidated commander of the 4th OMSbr
The liquidated chief of staff of the 4th OMSbr
Wounded deputy commander of the 4th OMSbr
An unknown amount of equipment and weapons was destroyed
Sanitary and irreversible losses are up to 20
Can this affect the development of events near Klishchiivka. Since there was a situation where mobilization rebelled and demanded from their commander to lead them forward to this area. But after some time, this case happened with a broken support point. What consequences can there be in this?
loosing commanding and staff officers is a serious blow for any unit cohesion. It will take a while before they will recover, that even if they will make a replacement immediately and the new one will be competent.
I am ready to call it: Ukraine is winning this war, as defined by liberating at least the territory ante 24.2.22. And that is because Ukraine is winning the war of atrittion. Mai will bring new record losses of Russia in EW, Radar and artillery losses. Ukraine is gaining air and therefor artillery superiority on a tactical level. It allready has superiority in tanks an will get it in mech.
Ukraine is also constantly gaining ground in the field of deep striking capabilities, defensivly as offensivly. Meanwhile russia is running a serious budget defizit and china stays on the sideline. Hell, even switzerland has decided to send weapons. Endless winter for Russia.
It’s a bit too soon to be sure of that, but since May 9th (and the ridiculous parade in Moscow), each day brings more good news for Ukraine.
But yeah, they are scoring a lot of points hunting radars and EW equipment (such as the two Mi-8 jamming helicopter they destroyed yesterday). We can be a bit more optimistic for the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Ukraine is on the course of winning the war, but it hasn’t won it yet. The biggest threat to a Ukrainian victory is apathy in the west – don’t underestimate the pro-Russian influence: Trump in the US, Le Pen in France, Die Linke/AfD in Germany, Erdogan in Turkey, Berlusconi in Italy, Milanovič in Croatia as well as the “pacifists”, wo believe it’s Ukraine’s fault there is no peace
For me the question was never the if, but the ‘would it be enough’. There are still new capabilities being added and the planes are pretty much the only big one left and they will come. The ‘would it be enough’ is just being answered on the battlefield. A Trump administration is the only real danger, but that will be to late for Russia.
Exactly
I would unknowingly argue that as of now it looks like a stalemate which – in theory – can go on for years. The only activity is in and around Bakhmut. Apparently neither side has the resources and/or political will to make any decisive military moves. Russian winter offensive didn’t happen, Unkrainian spring offensive is still expected and whether it’ll happen is anybody’s guess
Russian winter offensive happens and fail in a epic way.
Ukrain offensive just start. Wait and see .
Okay, okay, I’ll wait. But right now I am seeing – sorry to say – a stalemate
You see, that the frontline is not moving, but the losses of Russia are unsustainable. Russias kit is degrading consantly while Ukraine s is improving.
Herr Beckhaus, I am aware that you care a great deal about the Russian losses. If you could provide two additional things, I’d be – no jokes – forever indebted to you:
– methodology, how these figures are collected
– losses from the Ukrainian side (gathered following the same procedure as above)
If you can do it, that might be a serious argument in favour of Ukraine’s ultimate victory
You poor non believer!
If you want to believe that oryx is a lying western information operation, do it. If you go for the Russian everything is a lie narrative, why even waste time here? Hell, even that war is probably just a lie.
Oryx collects open source visual kit destruction data for both sides. That data shows that Ukraine is constantly losing at lot less kit than Russia in most categories. That data is also showing consistent quotas to the MoD of Ukraine Russian losses, of around 50%. So Ukrainian data is verified consistent with the oryx base line. Oryx is stating itself that it greatly underestimates losses.
Therefor Oryx is the estimation floor and MoD Ukraine the roof. More importantly you can see developments on the battlefield in the MoD Ukraine numbers. They are probably overestimation, but they are showing the trend correctly, while oryx data lags behind. MoD of Ukraine numbers show new records in may concerning artillery and special equipment and this a war of artillery.
Let me reiterate, how does MoD of Ukraine collect the data (is it exact body count, estimation based on fired ammunition, reports by commanders, intelligence data from Russian hospitals and morgues etc or is it what Hanna Maliar thinks is appropriate for today). I have no idea. Ukrainian command knows their losses, Russian – theirs and they don’t say much. The rest is educated (or not) guesses
We don’t know their method, but we can guess it’s based on field reports. It is probably a bit overestimated, but not so much (oryx report about half the number of Ukrainian MoD for most categories). Discount Ukrainian numbers by about 30% and you’ll have a quite good estimate of Russian losses.
For the next two year, no doubts about occidental support.
And in two years, russian army will not be able to attack again.
Very strange that Russians units are attacking at Stupochky, Bila Hora — these are the flanks where Ukrainian units are advancing. Something doesn’t add up here. (?)
Its a word play.. in “vicinity of”, “towards” etc…
Russians are trying to regain positions they just lost.So yeah, they are attacking where Ukrainians advanced the past few days.
“Bakhmut will fall by the next week”
Ah yes
Why not, but… the Russians will be surrounded in Bakhmut! SURPRISE! Regards.
yes, there is always some “next week” 😉
It’s an ancient Russian saying.