Invasion Day 428 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 27th April 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Serebryansky forest
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- The fighting continues in the north-western part of Bakhmut, and the enemy is slowly advancing. However, as we lack any proper footage and geolocation from this part, we’ll keep it conservative for now.
- Mortars of Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade targeted Wagner mercenaries south of the base of 54th Mechanized Brigade, showing their advance towards the west. (source)
- The enemy advanced further west and reached Bakhmut Industrial College and the road T0504. (source)
- High rise residential building overlooking road T0504 towards Ivanivske was blown up. We can probably assume this area was lost, and the building was blown up by retreating Ukrainian troops to limit Russian fire control over the nearby area. (source)
- Heavy fighting presist for the road through Khromove, both sides are attempting to gain full control over the road area surrounded by trenches north-west of the settlement. (source)
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Russian forces, despite numerous casualties, managed to advance closer towards Nevelske settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka, Sieverne, Pervomaiske
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No activity reported.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
Looking for an interactive map? We got you covered. Visit our original Deployment map.
If you would like to use our maps in your project, video or any other media, please visit Invasion maps page for more information.
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Where is the update for the past five days? This has been an important part of my bi-daily breakfast routine. 🙂
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/04/30/russia-ukraine-war-news-2/
20,000 RU soldiers KIA since December = 4.000/month.
Oryx worshippers are gonna have a stroke :))
I dunno, could you try trolling better (or elsewhere if you cannot raise your game).
Estimated 100k general loses including 20k KIA.
By your own admission RAF loses one strenghtened brigade per month still without archieving any of roughly stated objectives (like lineup front in Luhansk, destroying or forcing abandoment of Avdeevka, removing Bakchmut area of operation and Siversk…)
…and lets not start mentioning Marinka or Vuhledar.
Can you read? I am referring to KIA only.
Can you count? 4000 KIA X 5 months = 20.000 KIA
4k would be strenghtened brigade (give or take).
I mean… what was particularly troublesome in my statement?
I think we misunderstood each other. The spokesperson mentioned that 20,000 Russians were killed over a 5-month period. My point was to stress what it meant in terms of average monthly deaths: 4.000. – and that this is very far from the widespread claims about zillions of Russian deaths. That’s all.
Still 130 people per day isn’t small number. But definitely closer to reality from estimates of 450-500 people.
Indeed
‘they’ (including oryx) estimates *loses* not just deaths and methodology of that estimations were questioned by Ukrainians themselves from the beginning.
And assuming that it is a Intelligence works that are registered (one way or another) deaths. Without MIA and late loses.
For the context: 10 years in Afghanistan cost USSR ~15k KIA.
not clear for me if december is include or not.
And keep in mind that RU losses decrease in april. less offensives.
I think it says ‘since December’, so logically December is included.
not achieving anything is relative.
if we are talking about mainly the gains of acquired land then sure they didn’t achive much, but if we are talking about reducing Ukraines military capabilities, then they achived quite a lot, we are only looking at russia here, but what did ukraine lose? no one talks about that, even tho it’s more important.
for example, their offensives in every other area outside of bakhmut had to be postponed for an indefinte amount of time, whilst russia was able to entrench themselves heavily during this time. russia is not running low on time, they cleary have enough of it and prepared themselves for a long war now. ukraine on the other hand does not have the time or military capabilty to contine for a long war
they roughly stated general objectives (and some of them did not change for more than year, like destroying any actual Ukr force capable of resisting in the claimed territories). They failed.
How much they were actually able to effective disrupt or damage Ukr forces we will know in the coming months.
There is an illusion that the ;’long war’ will benefit RUssia ->>
->> it may benefit ‘Putin’ as collective as a measure of security of deteriorating regime. But that has the price which Russia cannot pay – but Putin may be pretty sure that he rather won’t personally.
So what’s the trolls point about oryx worshippers? Oryx never talks about human casualties.
100k casualties in 5 months would be quite an achievement by Russia. That would be 240k a year…
In April, Russia’s net territorial gain was 5 squared kilometers : https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1653297156457914368
In march, it was 1 squared kilometers.
That’s the impressive result of Russia’s winter offensive.
and you believe this?
That’s just facts. The frontline hasn’t moved much for the last two months – some ground gained here, some ground lost there, on average : no gain. Russian offensive is a failure.
I just hope Ukrainians will be successful in their own.
simple arithmetics is comprehensible usually around 3rd grade of elementary even for seriously troubled kids.
Were do you think Russia advance more?
The probability of Patrick being a russian troll just went up considerably, if it wasn´t at 10 out of 10 allready.
Da!
Thank you for this whiff of fresh propaganda. We needed it.
For those interested in more objective information: In March and April, the Russian advanced (indeed modestly) on the Bakhmut/Kreminna/Svatove/Avdiivka fronts by about 90 square kilometers. Source: deepstatemap updates (a famous russian troll factory).
Naturally, we will not talk about the cost of this advancement. After all, a million Russians are known to have been annihilated and it is not clear how they are moving forward at all
where is the square kilometer tool?
visualy, its far away to 90. To compare, Bakmut make 40 km2.
On avdivka, changes are insignifiant. In Kremina/Svatove, deepstatemap is very optimist for RU, probably just because they didnt change their map in april. And its not a lot of gain. In bakmut, its maximum 5 square kilometer.
They captured 0 square kilometres
They took over a bit of territory
—-> You’re here.
This territory is strategically unimportant
They paid too much for it
They have regular updates. I keep daily records. You can do the same. It’s easy and objective.
Share your “calculations,” please. I got 20 square kilometers at most: (45459.28+72.37+123.91+2072.05+17504.02)-(45471.79+70.98+119.93+2054.65+17495.71)=18.57
i found the fonction.
mars to mai : 103,9 km2 around 60 for bakmut
april to mai : +18.57 km2
Great but I don’t know where the function is. I was recording this manually.
FYI, Jerome’s map, DeepStateMap and @Pouletvolant3’s map are almost the same. You can add @defmon3, @NOELreports or @War_Mapper: difference between all those maps are only a few hundred meters here and there – smaller than the size of the “grey zone”.
So why are you calling one of them “propaganda” and another one “objective information” ?
IMO, DeepStateMap is a bit less reliable (they sometimes make mistakes and correct them a few days later), but it doesn’t matter. Even if your number were true, the conclusion is the same: the frontline doesn’t move. During Kharkiv’s counteroffensive, Ukraine regained 400km2 the first two days, and 20 000 km2 after a bit more than 2 months. 90 km2 in two months ? That’s nothing.
The frontline did not move much but the claim of a net gain of 6 sq. km in March-April was too ludicrous to remain unanswered. And FYI, the Russians advanced by approximately 408 sq km (on all fronts) since Jan. 1.
Poulet_volant’s claim is solid (he is very precise and careful when measuring the changes – maybe too precise) but as I said, it all depends on how you count the grey zone. @War_Mapper says that Ukrainian regained 25 km2 in April.
So you can count everything since January if you want, it doesn’t change the failure of the Russian army in its winter offensive.
Where did you see that the Russians launched a winter offensive? There were local operations only.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPhycuLAtaw
educate yourself.
From the start, the guy postulates there was a Russian offensive. He is trying to build a case like a lawyer but proves nothing.
No, he doesn’t “build a case” he explains things you don’t want to understand. Because if your claim is “there was no winter offensive, just Russian attacks on Kupyansk, Makiivka, Dibrova, Bilohorivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Adiivka, Marinka and Vuhledar”, you just shot yourself in the foot.
So educate yourself on the Russian offensive, instead of denying its existence.
I disagree and do not see any added value to your two messages. The only thing that transpires is arrogance and a peremptory tone (“educate yourself” repeated twice).
A trumpist who complains about arrogance. How ridiculous.
You asked a question: “where did the Russian offensive happened”. I gave you a video that answer this question (you should have watched it) and many other questions. I then answered your question again, and you “do not see any added value to your two messages”. You should buy some glasses. And educate yourself.
DeepState tends to be quite conservative in their estimations. Better than overenthusiams or complete nonsenses from Noel (not active anymore?) or War Monitor etc.
@Artur Micek usually have some roughly reliable info, though get it with the solid spoon of salt.
ehm, the term ‘net-gain’ is too complicated? I hope someone else is doing your taxes.
These are always inprecise estimations. What is more important – none of the roughly stated objectives of RAF were accomplished so far. That, still, including Bakchmut.
I took the ‘net-gain’ reference from Tristan. Thank you for offering your tax advice to the right person.
This very site shows them gaining more than 2 square km in Bakhmut alone. Unless you believe the majority of Bakhmut and surrounding fields is 2 sq kilometers.
There won’t be a summary today, too. I didn’t have enough time to caught up on all things to provide the summary in the quality I’d like to. The next one on May 3 will make it.
No worry, Jerome, you do a wonderful job and you can publish whenever you like. Take your time !
“The next one on April 3 will make it.” -> May 3 🙂
Hard to believe it’s already May. The time goes too fast.
thank you
You can find monthly losses as reported by MoD of Ukraine and Oryx here.
The share of American voters who believe the U.S. is doing too much to help Ukraine increased from 6% in March 2022 to 38% this month, according to WSJ surveys. The same period of time saw the share of those who believe the U.S. should do more for Ukraine fall from 46% to 20%. The share who believe the U.S. is doing the right amount has not changed, staying at 35%.
Yes . a clear answer to those who dream that US will abandon Ukrain.
This is my biggest concern of them all: that Russian propaganda will make the western public apathic regarding Ukraine, thus abandoning its military support. Russia is laughing at us
Crucial: ‘doing too much’ doesn’t mean ‘do nothing’. Also, the last few months have seen very little movement in the frontlines. Stalemate is not popular with anyone. If Ukraine’s counteroffensive is even relatively successful, voters in allied nations will show more positive signs of support to help Ukraine rearm for another.
If ukrain win, more people will say their governement do to many. But if they lose, same people will say their governement dont do enough.
I’m arguing the opposite would be true. If Ukraine performs even kind of well in the counteroffensive and takes back a relatively sizeable chuck of their land, people will support continued investments in Ukraine. If they fail, popular support (among average citizens) will falter. The recent downturn in support is because of stalemate. Western tech is only good if it is used well.
Wich slatemate?
The support look to get down because ukrain is winning. If russia was still in capacity to win , support will be different.
More ukrain will win and less people will consider their help important. But, its dont mean they will accept that their governement abandon ukrain.
And of course, wait to see impact of mass grave in marioupol and other occupied city .
The frontlines have barely moved in the last several months due to weather and stubborn UA resistance to RU’s offensive. Despite the lines shifting here and there by small amounts, huge amounts of ammunition and other resources are consumed. The apparent lack of progress drains popular support among average folks. If UA is successful in the near future in reclaiming territory, support will return.
Yeah but you must also take into account that Russia is investing a lot of money into propaganda, showcasing Ukraine and the west as a “warmongerer”. I had a talk with an anti-weapons deliveries guy and these people are completely delusional. So Russia is using freedom of speech in our countries to encourage any behaviour and sentiment that is disadvantageous to Ukraine
You know it’s funny, if you check the comments under Ukraine articles on Slovenia’s national broadcaster, all of them are pro-Russian and I even read a comment saying: “the bombing of Serbia was unjustified” which no Slovene in his right mind would say given that Serbia oppressed us (and many others). Ruski propaganda managed to make Serbia look like a victim, inspite of all they did in Yugoslavia
So the big lesson: Don’t underestimate propaganda. Even the biggest oppressor and a genocidal regime can be, using clever marketing, be made into a saint and a victim of the west. “Ukraine is clearly nazi and since the US did questionable things in the past and supports Ukraine => Ukraine must be evil.” This is really how many people in India, but even in the west (mostly anti-vaxxers) tick
One question if I may: are you by chance from Celje?
So what’s your point? In a country of about 340 million people, you’re never going to get them all to agree on anything. Depending on the exact wording of a poll, you can get any answer you want to get. Haven’t you figured that out yet? Besides, the current President has at least 2 more years in office and he has determined to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.
If you don’t like surveys, just ignore them.
I do, they tend to be meaningless.
Can we have the same independent survey from Russia, ah not, we can’t because they would only be one answer in the survey.
Your comment is stupid, off-topic and not even funny. You’re undoubtedly talented.
That’s the work of russian bots and professionnal liars who betrayed their country in favor of Russia (like Tuker Carlson, Donal Trump, etc). But Biden was also wrong to present its donations as important (in $ value) when he was simply sending useless M113 and other stuff too old/crappy to be used by the US Army. Europe and USA should do 10 times more for Ukraine.
Actually Tristan, those M113’s that were donated came from active National Guard units. The 113 serves the same purpose as a Russian built BMP, they are a battle taxi nothing more. Gets you to the fight and provides small arms protection. Over my years in the service I have ridden in both, I would rather be in a 113 all things considered.
M113 are APC from the 60ies. Not IFV like BMP and Bradley.
Sure, it’s better than nothing. And BMP-1 aren’t much better. But I don’t think US army would deploy M113 for infantery support (if they had to fight an army like the Russians).
We have deployed 113’s to war as recently as 2003, in the same configuration as what was donated. Any APC is only intended to protect from small arms and artillery AP rounds. Whether you’re in an APC or an IFV if your vehicle gets hit by an anti-tank round or a direct hit from an artillery round, bottom line you’re more than likely gone.
My apologies, I meant BTR’s.
they needed smth reliable, simple and adaptable, easy to master and maintain, and cheap in great numbers fast. M113 it was. You are forgeting ‘bang for a buck’ rule and it is not like they had to fightTransformers or some otherwordly RU wunderwaffe. Bradleys are better, sure, but also more complicated and much more expensive. So they got them later. It is not about ‘best’ but ‘good enough 4 a job’
M113 in ukrain are often use like fighting vehicule. Its always better than a hummer.
Many many $ going to the USA defence industry.
War is a contest of will, political will. If one side loses its will to fight/support the fight, it will lose.
And the public support in the USA is one of the more important frontlines of this fight of wills. I am confident that Europe will stay in the fight indefinitly and that should be enough as long as the US sells the weapons…
I agree that Europe will support Ukraine as long as the US does. When the US decides the time for peace negotiations has come, the Europeans will have no choice but to follow suit.
I doubt that. A biden administration wouldnt force europe and a trump or the like administration would still opt for selling weapons and wouldnt have the political influence to force anything. I think that scrnario is highly unlikly.
If elected, I very much expect that Trump will want to bring an end to the conflict. So 2025 is the year when this ends.
Listen patrick, you do not understand the situation in europe. Ukraine will be part of the eu and will be defended as such mo matter what happens in the usa. This conflict started 2014 and it will end when ukraine decides so while being strongly supported by the europe. 2025 or any other year may bring a truth. Trump will not decide it though, he will go for the money.
Truce! The probability of an end of the conflict is extremly low.
we’ll see.
The only men more stupid than Trump are his followers.
Trump is a criminal who should be in jail. Hopefully, with all the criminal charges against him, he will end up in jail.
Only jailing Trump will save the Democrats from defeat. Millions will not vote again for a senile president gearing up for a selfish re-election bid.
Biden may be old but Trump is a criminal conmqn jn cahoots with Putin.
Showing your true colours Patrick?
What I wrote is purely factual. If you don’t like it, get over it.
Dreams are not facts.
“Only jailing Trump will save the Democrats from defeat” is NOT FACTUAL. It’s just your opinion (which, at least on the topic of Ukraine, is often wrong).
By the way, Trump is also very old. Biden’s age may be a argument for a 45-years-old candidate (de Santis), not a 80-years-old candidate (Trump).
It’s not a question of age. Many old people are in great shape. Biden is not. His bid is selfish and he will lose lots of votes because of that. He should have let Kamala Harris run.
you mean that (by the token of your ‘argument’) Mr. Trump running from prosecution – and we are still in early stage and current court proceedings are quite minor and insignificant in proportion for the real ones – into elections is in some way ‘benevolent’?
Supporting someone like Trump is seriously falling too low.
and if it is not ‘about an age’ why *you* are raising such an argument?
It’s not about age, it’s about deterioration of cognitive functioning associated with old age.
emmm…. if the ‘cognitive deterioration’ are concerns in such case I’d seriously reconsider supporting (If I’d had one) someone, who either dramaticly deteriorated around 30 (and unlike Buch Jr has no excuse of an addiction problem) or wasn’t the brightest tool in the shack in the 1st place.
I read exactly the same before last election. And he was elected.
Nah – kamala is poor. Defo Putin boy, eh?
So you’re a trumpanzee as well, oh dear!
No. I have no gurus. I speak my mind. I find it funny when people are trying to put me in a box. I am as free as the wind.
How exactly do you imagine Trump will bring an end to the conflict in 2025?
There are ways. The starting point is the intention.
Same ways he built that wall?
Dozens of corpses in and around trenches. Freaky vision. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/43685
There won’t be a summary tonight guys, I’ll be offline for the rest of the day. Apologies for any inconvenience.
Thanks for your hard work. Enjoy the weekend.
Enjoy your weekend Jerome.
Sevastopol is on fire 🙂 Vatniks can’t quit smoking.
Pavlograd on fire. Your turn 🙂
counteroffensive in Monaco and in Kyiv night clubs
Crawl back to your sewer!
Ukraine is stepping up the artillery war. Russia is loosing a lot of jamming systems and a lot of artillery systems. If ukrainian drones can fly unjammed, Ukraines precission artillery will reign the battlefield. This way Ukraine may even things up concerning the artillery disadvantage and may even get surpirior with less shells and tubes.
And evenutally, Ukraine may have more tubes in the field than Russia. If the US leaks are right, Ukraine allready has more tanks fielded than Russia
Indeed and everyone is forgetting the captured and repaired russians tanks that are now in UKR side, around 400 tanks and more vehicles … I think they will be used in the first waves of the counter offensives as missiles and anti vehicles “baits” prior the 200 newest tanks
Yes, they almost won. Tommorow they march on Moscow. And the day after tomorrow Ukraine will reach Chukchi Sea and concqure the penguins using Russians tanks. Sometimes i think Ukrainians are Macedonians.
I love it. Just like last year before Ukrainian counteroffensive. Plenty of russian trolls were saying things like “where’s your counteroffensive” but as soon as it began all of them dispersed into caves and were silent for a couple of months.
Mac Bechaus must be a bot. I see him spamming like ten comments about how Russians are being reduced to Neanderthals every day. Either a bot or someone with no life at all
10? I am programmed to do 20, at least!
You are wrong. Nobody can say that Russians are reduced to Neanderthals.
Because Neanderthals were far more intelligent and human than Russian fascists are.
Crawl back to your swamp.
Hey Jerome, nice work as always!
Sorry to ask a relative “off question”, but would you have a clean version of your high detailed full map of Ukraine (without the russian marks of advance, gains, fires and other symbols) to share with us? I’ve a private project that I’m working on, and man, your map is perfect for it lol.
If you don’t mind to share, I would be eternally grateful to you!
It says thatbase map is by OpenStreetMaps contributors. Would OpenStreetMaps not work?
Please email me to [email protected]. Thanks!