The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 12th March 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

  • Ukrainian General Staff reported a repelled Russian attack towards Dvorichna. That wouldn’t be possible if the enemy didn’t, at least partially, control Hryanykivka. The settlement is likely contested now.

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Hryanykivka, Masyutivka, Dvorichna

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

  • Russian forces gained more ground in the area of Terny settlement. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Nevske, Dibrova, Kreminna, Bilohorivka, Spirne, Fedorivka

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • The enemy advanced beyond Dubovo-Vasylivka closer to Orikhovo-Vasylivka. (source)
  • Ukrainian General Staff reported a repelled Russian attack towards Minkivka. The enemy likely advanced along M-03 highway towards the settlement.

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Zaliznianske, Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Paraskoviivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske

Bakhmut City

the city of Bakhmut

  • Fighting continues in the northern part of Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries reportedly reached the edge of Tsvetmet Zavod.
  • The enemy advanced by a few houses in the southern Bakhmut. (source)

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

  • According to unconfirmed news, the enemy captured Vesele and Krasnohorivka. There is no visual proof to support such claims.
  • Ukrainian General Staff reported a repelled attack in the direction of Tonenke (behind Sieverne), indicating the enemy gained some ground and attempted to bypass Sieverne through the fields.

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Sieverne, Tonenke, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kalanchak Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

  • No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.

Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

 


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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.

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dolgan

Just local counter offensive. 2 or 3 Time per week since one month.

Russian source are afraid to a counterattack on monday or tuesday.

Wait and see. WE dont have info to know Real plan an capacity of both camp

Randy

Wagner contracts for specific objectives. They appear to have completed their contract to clear Bakhmut to the river. Their mercenaries are probably sitting on a warm beach somewhere blowing much of their bonuses. The same day that they completed that action, The People’s Militia of the Lugansk People’s Republic were reported to start attacks on the city just east of the river from North and South

Randy

Uh, just West of the river. Sorry.

INEXORABLE

Any news about the AZOM industrial complex, highly fortified position to hold for UKR troops ?
Will that be the next Azovstal scenario ? I hope not….

John

No…

First, the Ukrainians have learned from their mistakes and…

Secondly, the structural conditions are different. Azov Steel in Mariupol was a bunker city underground with several levels. And it was prepared to house over 1,000 people for a month.

In Bakhmut you don’t have that and the Russian army is weaker than it was then.

RutilantBossi

How is the Russian army weaker now when they have more than double the troops they had then? Seriously what makes you say they are weaker? In relative terms (relative to Ukraine then and now), maybe, but in absolute terms the Russian army likely got stronger.

John

Because now it is mainly mobilized forces that have little experience.
You can see the progress, at that time the Russian army advanced much
faster and had much more artillery at its disposal.

Patrick

I don’t see a difference between RU mobilized forces and UKR mobilized forces. Both are often little more than cannon fodder sent to the front with little to no training and with no purpose other than to patch holes.

Tristan

Ukraine train their mobilized soldiers. There are a few people who goes to Territorial Defense brigades with little training, but the ones who are mobilized in regular brigades are usually well trained (sometimes trained in western countries).

Russian, on the other hand … well, if they hadn’t sent their instructors to the frontline, they could train their mobilized zombies.

Last edited 1 year ago by Tristan
RutilantBossi

They did train their mobiks in Belarus afaik

Patrick

Some UKR soldiers get no training at all. Snatched in the street and sent to the front. If the reality is unpleasant, it’s not a reason to deny it.

Tristan

Yes, some. They are sent to territorial defense brigade without training, as I said.

On the other hand, it not just “some” Russian mobiks who got no training, but most of them. No surprise, since Russian sent their instructors to the frontline in June/July 2022 because they were lacking men.

Patrick

You wrote: “Russian sent their instructors to the frontline in June/July 2022 because they were lacking men.
So those 300,000 that were mobilized in October got no training because no more instructors in Russia? That’s rather funny.

Noelle

some got training some not but additional factor is lack of proper deployment. The recurrent stories of artillerymen (mobiks trained pretty well, considering limited time and resources as such) put into assault regiments is telling. Even best qualified loader or gun commander if deployed as grunt will be at best: quite poor one and usually detrimental.

Patrick

Yes, I’ve read such stories too.

Tristan

I’m sure the mobiks don’t find this “rather funny”.

Patrick

It’s your unsubstantiated claim that there are no instructors left in Russia that is funny.

Tristan

I said Russia sent its instructors to the frontline when they lack manpower. It was in the ISW reports around June/July 2022 iirc.

I assume they bring at least some of those instructors back to Russia when they mobilized, but probably many of those instructors had already been killed/wounded in action.

ConcernedFllwr
Tristan

Thank you for the link !

Yes, that was those ISW reports I was refering to.

Noelle

ot is not the solely ‘instructors’ ‘ problem. The whole, already deeply reduced in the 1st decade of XXI cnt. structure of training and reconstituting military units is if not destroyed then seriously weakened. R conscripts and active reserve trained in an actual units of deployment. Exactly these units which fought from the day 1. Guess what happened with all of this.

Roberto C.

The russian were in progress to change their army toward a full professional force. This normally cause a decrease in size. Including the training capability of large number of mobilized personell. Common in most of the EU professional army. Only a few country has large mobilization organization. Those that keep a reseve force active and periodically trained, Like Finland, Swiss, USA and few other

INEXORABLE

there are no 300 000 mobilized, at least 150 000 but no more, just propaganda and in this 150 000 already 40 000 were KIA in the first month after mobilization

Patrick

“there are no 300 000 mobilized, at least 150 000 but no more, just propaganda”

What’s your source for claiming this? I am curious

John

The question should be how they come up with your claims. Your statements are nothing more than Russian propaganda…

Patrick

If this message is addressed to me, I don’t understand what you are talking about.

INEXORABLE

If it was really the case, 300 000 poor guys even unarmed would have overrun Ukrainian defenses in every directions ….. these is still not the case !!!

Patrick

What an argument… No comment…

AlexDi

oh… 300k mobilized with rusty AK-74 run on machine gun, mine field and artillery leading fire from the closed position? You stuck on WW1?

Tristan

They got weaker: they fire 4-5 times less artillery shells (compared to last spring), they lack tanks and more importantly, they lack qualified men.

But it’s true they have more infantry. Even if poorly-trained, their numbers matter.

RutilantBossi

So far they lost 1.831 tanks according to Oryx (over half of them T-72 tanks) out of over 10.000 tanks (T-72 or better) of which about 3.000 were in service before the war, unless they forged their numbers they should be good to go for another couple of years tank wise.

Tristan

Out of the 7k tanks in reserve, only 1/3 were properly stored and reusable. 1.8k losses recorded by Oryx means that they actually lost about 2.3k, maybe more. So they lost half of their available tanks in 1 year, they might be short on tanks since the army size grew.

Food for though

I am really amazed with the ease that you throw numbers. No 1.8k losses doesn’t mean that actually have lost 2.3k. It might be 1.9k. And where is your source for the fact that out of 7k tanks only 1/3 was properly stored? Did you check the depots personally? Or is it because the vatniks will have just left them to rust?

Tristan

Military experts thinks that you have to multiply oryx numbers by 1.5 or 2 to have the real numbers. Even if you only multiply it by 1.25, it gives you about 2.3k, so that’s a conservative estimate.

Concerning the reserve, there was someone who visually count (thanks to satellite images) the number of russian tanks actually stored in good contidion, it was about 1/3.

Food for though

You realise that the “someone who saw some satellite images” to estimate the good condition of the tanks isn’t realistic. That’s a made up claim.
Regarding the “military experts” that think that you have to multiply it with 1.5. Why? The coverage of the war is really good and we have picture for almost everything, especially from the moment that Ukrainians will post on social media every success.

Tristan

I’m tired of this endless discussion.

I saw a video of someone showing HD satellite image of russian tank deposits, explaining ow he counted the tanks, his methodology was sound and that was quite convincing. I didn’t bookmark the video (it was on youtube), sorry.

Anyways, 1/3 of the tanks in good condition is actually surprisingly high, given they spent decades outdoor in Siberia.

Tristan

And no, Ukrainians don’t post on social media every success, that’s just silly.

Follow oryx contributors on twitter, e.g. @naalsio26, they regularly provide photos of old losses, previously undoccumented. So it’s safe to assume there are many Russian losses that are undoccumented, or that will only be documented in several months.

Food for though

Yes, they add a few more undocumented losses. A few more. Not a few hundreds. If you documents average 20 more tanks per month for the past 6 months this will increase the 1.8k to just 1.9k. Not to 2.3k.

Food for though

During Cold War the US had under satellite surveillance 24/7 the USSR to be able to estimate what was working, what was transferred out of the area etc. If you think that looking at some photos you can easily estimate what is working and what is not it makes sense to me why you believe that Russia has 150k dead in a year. You believe this “methodology” while UK MoD talk about 60k.

Tristan

You still can’t even understand what I wrote, and you criticize a video you haven’t see. I give up, you are just a waste of time.

And yes, oryx added hundreds of old losses. Their updates are sometimes 50%, or even more, old losses. For example, in september, they added one day about 200 Russian old losses, and 100 Ukrainian ones. You don’t know what you are talking about.

Rudolph Jensen

If all that mattered was raw numbers, then the highest population country would win by just giving everyone a spear or basic firearm.

Strength of a military is a lot more than raw cannon fodder infantry numbers.

Russia’s core contract soldier base has been gutted (volunteers with on average years of experience), more than half of Russia’s modern/modernized tanks have been lost, etc.

RutilantBossi

Russians have still plenty of equipment, i don’t understand why people think they’re running out of it.

Tristan

They still have some reserve, but it’s old stuff, and they are losing so much every day. They might be already short on tanks. Hence the “human waves” tactics in some places.

COLIN

They have to try and keep equipment incase NATO really get involved.

dolgan

BEcause btr 50 are now on Frontline. Not a sign they have plenty of equipment

INEXORABLE

They are weaker and weaker, no more specialized troops, annihilated since months, only Wagner has experiences in urban warfare, mobilized troops do even have decent weapons and are only used as canon fodder seeing what happens around Vuhledar can explain you their lack of experiences and seeing the 1000 deads in one day in Bakhmut on the RU side.. forget chechens they loose to many troops

Patrick

The news is that Wagner took Azovmash – north of AZOM.
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1635575811490152449

Patrick

Sorry I meant Vostokmash factory in northern part of metal processing plant in Bakhmut

John

It’s not so surprising now… If the Ukrainians retreat, then the Russians take the city, so what. Doesn’t change the course of the war for the time being… And in the end it was only a question of time until the Russians have Bakhmut completely in their hands.

Ukrainian retreat is the best thing they could do. Especially since there are no more possibilities for defense in the city.

John

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1634541514356391936

Somehow I find this guy quite funny… What he’s been churning out in
the last few months is better than any comedy. He probably eats a clown
for breakfast every day…

dolgan

Hé eat clown for breakfast before to go at work killing innocent…

MeNeutral

prigozhin likes to troll the ukrainians as it seems.

kris

I hate the Russkies, but wow…they keep attacking, and attacking, and attacking, and attacking…and gaining ground slowly, methodically; despite low 152/122mm artillery shells and Russian infantry having no training.

Ukraine is doing all it can. But is it enough?

INEXORABLE

yes indeed but wasting eneregy and lives for minor advances and extension of supplies lines does not worth it…remember last April 2022 when they did the same to Kiev suburbs and then were annihilated by UKR…. it will be the same story in the coming weeks…. Always remember Lyman / Izium / Kherson fast and well prepared counter offensives !!!!!

MeNeutral

Izium was fast and a great victory. the other two tho.. far from it

kherson was a pyrrhic victory for ukraine that took months of grinding and very heavy losses just so russia could retreat and basically not lose anything except the dreams of odessa

Lyman is a similar story where ukraine lost sooo much against an force that was way smaller and weaker.

Tristan

Russia lost Kherson, the only regional capital they got (and 2nd largest city they captured) 2 weeks after declaring it “Russia forever”. It was a HUGE political defeat. And concerning losses, Russian lost a lot of equipment (and probaly men too) even if it was not a complete disaster like Izium.

Concerning Lyman, it was a clean victory for Ukraine and a disaster for Russia when they retreated.

MeNeutral

A clean victory would’ve led to kreminna being taken, but they were bogged down in Lyman, so that Russia could „easily“ reinforce the front.

Kherson was political defeat for sure, but the losses Russia had to suffer and what Ukraine suffered aren’t even comparable.
In Kherson Russia was at least smart enough to retreat just in time, something where Ukraine is failing to do so in bakhmut.

MeNeutral

Lyman was a victory for sure, but a clean one definitely not.

Tristan

It’s hard to understand why you deny the clean victory at Lyman just because they didn’t push to Kremina. Lyman was one battle. Kremina is another one.

And on what ground can you claim that Ukraine lost way more than Russia during the Kherson counteroffensive ? The reliable evidence we have (oryx) show that Russia lost more than Ukraine, at least for the heavy equipment.

dolgan

In kherson, russian had to sent reinforcement 4 or 5 Time. And finaly retreat under ukr shellings.

Ukrain liberate the city without heavy fighting and without lots of destruction. Its a great strategical Victory

COLIN

Yeah – but the ruzzian army escaped to fight in the east and Kherson is now bombarded daily.

COLIN

Ukraine got held up at Kremina. Brutal fighting there as well.

xTheFedorov

Compare Russian casualties to German in WW2, nothing has changed. A soldier’s life has very little value to them as long as their goals are met. They will just conscript more peasants from remote villages and prisoners to make up the numbers. As long as there are men to recruit, they will keep pushing unfortunately.

RutilantBossi

Germans were as ruthless as the Soviets, if not more, with Hitler more than once demanding suicide operations to the wehrmacht, such as not retreating from Stalingrad when they had the chance.

If your statement of Soviets giving zero fucks about soldiers lives being the main reason behind their casualties was true then Germany as well should’ve suffered massive casualties. 1/2

RutilantBossi

The real reason behind the USSR’s incredible amounts of casualties was the incompetence of both the Soviet intelligence services (a plane carrying plans for Fall Blau fell behind Soviet lines, Soviets thought it was deception and were caught with their pants down during the German offensive, for example) and the Soviet high command, which lost tons of experienced personnel during the purges. 2/2

Last edited 1 year ago by RutilantBossi
JJ Gonzo

Thanks for updates and marking Hryanykivka as contested. Situation of Bakhmut and Avdiivka is getting critical each and every day. I just hope Bakhmut will not turn from fortress into a trap and mass grave for its defenders.

Tristan

Thanks for the update, Jerome.

Days after days, it’s quite depressing to see that orcs are slowly progressing, despite their heavy losses. And western countries are still not providing enough equipment to end this war quickly. Good luck to Ukrainians, they are the real heroes.

transatlantic

Might offend you but I have to say, you generation of people in western countries, especially in europe, just know one thing: how to touch yourselves. Refugee crisis was a proof and this war is another. europe will go down the drain with russia after this war. Putin go underwater and Europe be half drowned. Hypocrites and evil both deserve no good outcomes.

dolgan

Lol kikoo teenager. Who is touching himself ?

Stop playing with your joystick, and let adult talking to serious things.

transatlantic

Dolgan, think about it, it there any “serious things” left in your society. And “adults” like BoJo, Liz, Annalena and Green Party? I’m just talking about the most serious matter.

dolgan

You have Trump. You win the competition in this domain.

I dont feel it serious.

Zhorik Vartanov

Responsible leadership and critical thinking are outdated concepts. Enemies of democracy have no chance of predicting what annalena360 is going to say or do because she doesn’t know it herself, it’s a strategy

COLIN

Wanking is illegal in Ruzzia!
But no one obeys it.

zheng

Please increase aid to Ukraine,love from China.hahahahahaha

Tristan

You’re welcome.

Here, we prefer to pay the price for freedom. Enjoy your corrupted dictatorship, China

Love from Europe

transatlantic

Not funny zheng, and I believe you’re a troll pretending to be a Chinese.

INEXORABLE

yes indeed but wasting energy and lives for minor advances and extension of supplies lines does not worth it…remember last April 2022 when they did the same to Kiev suburbs and then were annihilated by UKR…. it will be the same story in the coming weeks…. Always remember Lyman / Izium / Kherson fast and well prepared counter offensives !!!! As Sun Tzu said : you need to feint weakness …

Tristan

I know. And I don’t doubt that Ukraine will eventually win.

But so many good men and women die everyday, that’s so sad.

INEXORABLE

It is sad, it is a pity, all of this mess due to only one man in psychotic delirium but this is war and humans are just ressources at the end, numbersin statistics and years after just memories… millions of innocent ukrainian lifes destroyed, dreams and future annihilated only because of Putin mental health issues

John

In Putin’s inner circle there are too many fascist nationalists who talk
him into a lot of things and advise him wrongly. He is only the
executive part, but the thinkers and masterminds are others.

Max Beckhaus

Do not get yourself carried away, Tristan. Militarily there are no good reasons to believe, that this is different from Kiev or Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk. Press for more help from your home, and stay courages. Look at how the Ukrainians take this. You are being pathetic instead of fighting on.This is war on every frontline. Being gloomy here in the information sphere does not help.

Last edited 1 year ago by Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

Russia is impaling itself on Bakhmut and with this offensive in general. Ukraine will use this to its success, as usual.

RutilantBossi

Yeah i’m not “fighting” on a front, i’m just a guy commenting on a forum, if my opinions are gloomy i’m not self-censoring myself to “win the information war”.
I still do think Russian advances are nothing to worry about and i’m totally on your same line of thought here, but i’m not going to self-propaganda(ing) myself.

Max Beckhaus

Actually, I see this as my war as well, even though I am German. I think everybody in the west, who thinks this is not our war, does a bad mistake. Russia wants to fundamentally destroy our way of live and will do anything to destroy the west. It has done a hell of a Job, and we must stop Russia. This here is just another frontline for Russia, and we should be aware and… Read more »

RutilantBossi

What Russia has done has already changed our world beyond repair, whatever the outcome in Ukraine nothing will change, the future is dark for us with or without Ukraine.

But at least we can shove our middle finger down Russia’s ass by letting Ukraine win, that’s the only positive thing i see in supporting Ukraine.

Last edited 1 year ago by RutilantBossi
Max Beckhaus

Hm, I would argue that this war was actually a wake up call for the west. The Ukrainians show us what it really is about. It is giving us back a sense of purpose and realism where human kind stands. I see hope for the democratic peace project in this. But yes, this century will stay ugly. This is just the start of the shit happening, once climate change hits with full force, this may… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

Good times, especially for the global south.

Noelle

I hope that was an irony. Otherwise it’s delusional.
Would you elaborate how ‘good’ might be the times for the ‘global South’ – regions deeply dependend (that include future wanna-be-global-power India) on the Western lifeline in basically everything, while said West gets into trouble?
I mean mass famine, war, even worse than now uncertainty, add climate mess… ‘good times’, indeed.

RutilantBossi

I think he meant that our times (right now) will be remembered as the good times once Global Warming hits in full force the global south.

Max Beckhaus

Yes.

Tristan

i doubt, that you feel sad about that killed ppl, everyday you spread here hate and bloodthirst. why shall a psychopatic person like you feel empathic about others?

Tristan

honestly, i like to see you and the other new worldordergroupies depressed

Andrew

Paraskoviivka is a bit behind the advancing Wagner front.

Another reported UKR defeat of a RU attack came near Klishchiivka, earlier this week.

Could be that a significant counterattack is underway in and around Bakhmut. Be neat to see those Wagner spearheads get cut off…

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