Invasion Day 378 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 8th March 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Hryanykivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Nevske, Bilohorivka, Spirne, Vyimka, Fedorivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian General Staff reported a repelled Russian attack in the vicinity of Klishchiivka, potentially indicating a sucessfull Ukrainian counter-attack towards the settlement.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Berkhivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian troops shelled Russian positions north-east of Khromove, hinting at a Russian advance in the area. (source)
- Ukrainian Army established a temporary bridge at Khromove, making the road passable again. (source)
- Wagner mercenaries advanced by a few meters on the southern outskirts of Bakhmut. (source)
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Oleksandropil, Novokalynove, Krasnohorivka, Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Sieverne, Vodyane
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Novomykhailivka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Russian social media are brewing with rumors about a large Ukrainian counter-offensive under preparation to unblock Bakhmut. Up to 20 brigades are reportedly gathering along a front stretching from the north of Soledar to Toretsk. The offensive should start next week.
Yes. Some good inform ukr also talk about it .
It sure that its its always a dangerous moment for both camp.
But i think its more to fix russian. And just be ready to exploit an opportunity.
Or it could be a diversion like for Kherson …. Saying that Bakhmout will be the main target for the counter offensive, Russians gather all troops there and Ukr counter attack in another direction ?
I doubt it. It’s not quite the right time to do a counteroffensive, and not the right place neither.
Well, we’ll see.
I’m worried about Vuhledar, the Russians are amassing even more equipment in the area according to ISW
New target for caesar and himars.
If it’s the same local commander and it’s going to be another frontal attack, the Ukrainians have nothing to worry about.
Rather the same commander. He was even awarded recently by Putin for his “successes”.
Rustam Muradov
First time a western media is showing this
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-war-recruitment/32310040.html
Its conscription. What did you expect?
That’s not an excuse
So what, drama with goons in the middle of the day. Conscription never is voluntary, in western countries is if you’d refuse they’d come home in the middle of the night and drag you to jail instead.
all this brave ucrainian volunteers …
Jerome, I would suggest changing Nadiya’s status in the map from unknown (grey) to Ukrainian control (blue). The Russians are on the other side of the Zherebets river and this part of the front has been pretty much frozen for months. For your consideration.
25 days of no power cuts ended by 6 Kinzahls. I can smell desperation. Won´t be long until the grid is up again. Kiev fail, Kharkiv fail, Kherson fail, energy blackmail fail, energy infrastructure destruction fail. All Russia is really good at, is killing people that speak Russian and destroying their homes.
What is the price tag for 6 Kinzahls ? Maybe higher than the price tag for the whole power grid :p Just kidding, but I agree: it’s desperation. Their campaign aiming at destroying the power grid failed.
And when Russians fail, they bomb civilians, because apparently, that’s their definition of “being a real man”.
And its for “brianks”. Classic shelling.They just show they cant react.
no, not desperation – more like a weapons test.
did they even hit their targets accurately as advertised? not intercepted? if not – then it’s a disgrace to their missile technology.
You don’t test 6 missiles at the same time.
Before today, Russia tried Kinzahls 3 times during the first two months iirc. 1 missile at a time. First two times, they hits unimportant targets. Third one failed and “exploded/landed” in Russia.
To state the obvious, since it seems necessary concerning Bakhmut:
1) This is a war of attrition, where Russia had a hugh advantage in everything at the start of this war. Ukraine obviously has to suffer to overcome this advantage, and it did, does and will.
2) There is no better place to attride your opponent, than in citys. With the defender advantage going from 1 for 3 to up to 1 to 10.
3) The ukrainian military/political leadership is leading a highly success campaign, to believe their decession making is bad, is frankly dumb. This obviously does not meen that there are no mistakes.
4) The ukrainian military showed, that it is highly capable of very tight retreats.
My tip:
Trust the ukrainian leadership, they earned it absolutly.
Personnaly i would hold any bet, that Zelensky as politician and Zaluzhnyi as a general will go down in history as some of the greatest of europe in their age. While Putin will go down as the Russian leader, that lost vast parts, if not all of Ukraine for the Russian empire for good. He just may spell the end of it with this, and of course, meanwhile killing a lot of Russian speakers, as… Read more »
Ukraine poured some of its best brigades in to defend Bakhmut in recent months. Even a lopsided casualty ratio in the Ukrainian favor ultimately works to Russia’s advantage given its larger population and the fact that Wagner is trading prisoners for the lives of Ukrainian troops.
I agree with Patrick (maybe for the first time); in Bakhmut, even if Russian have more casualties than Ukrainians, they are damaging some of the best Ukrainian units.
However, those units are only dammaged, not destroyed; once again, Ukrainian are succesfully retreating from a difficult situation, and those dammaged units can be re-complete and be ready for the spring/summer offensive.
Larger population but smaller mobilisation.
And no, not just prisoners (or Wagner) are dying in bakmut. Fairy tales of Propaganda.
Indeed, if Russia does not mobilize in the coming months, they will again have a shortage of manpower and could end up in a deja vu situation. I also agree it is not just Wagner prisoners dying but they are the storm troops meaning they take the highest casualties.
I have to disagree with both.
1) Manpower: This is a question of will, not population. It will take many years befor this becomes a question.
2) Atrittion gradient: Even if Ukraine has all its best troops in bakhmut, Russia will still have to trippel that combat power at least, attriding itself accordingly by that.
3) Right now the goal is to burn thru Russias stocks, not its manpower.
Many people miscalculate the maximum number of mobilized forces after partial mobilization. Russia has 120 million inhabitants, 30 million of whom are men of military age, but these 30 million cannot be conscripted without declaring a state of war. If they were, the economy, critical infrastructure and basic social services in Russia would collapse. Because all these men make sure
that it does not collapse.
This is a workforce that cannot simply be sent to war. Every single worker provides economic and state services.
That is why Prigozhin and now Shoigu have to recruit men in the prisons, because they are the only ones who do not provide the state with manpower. Russia also had too few unemployed people who could have been recruited.
Prisoners have been the last emergency
solution…
Because actually prisoners are of no use for the war and are not better forces, on the contrary. These people are drug addicts, sick, disobedient, self-willed, unpredictable, stupid to learn, do not listen to their superiors and could escape at any moment. So, this clearly shows that Russia does not have any ill-advised men for the war.
In Ukraine it is different…. There is martial law, there is almost no infrastructure and economy, which has to be kept running… Thus, Selensky can get good, capable men out of a much larger pot and has a clear advantage.
Russia has way more than 120 million inhabitants. But you’re right in saying that a Russian priority has been to keep the economy afloat and that mobilizing millions of men would put the country on its knees. I do believe however that they could – and should if they don’t want to be defeated – mobilize at least a million in successive waves.
This brings us to a related question. What is Ukraine’s current population? And what is its maximum mobilization potential?
Russia and Ukraine can mobilize millions of men/women. But they don’t have enough equipment for them, and cannot quickly produce modern equipment.That’s the bottleneck, and that’s why western countries shall stop restraining themselves. Ukraine needs thousands of tanks/armor vehicule / artillery /etc. Western countries have that stuff, but are reluctant to lend it to Ukraine 🙁
The ratio of population is 3.3:1, effectively with regard to mobilization it will be closer to 2.5:1 owing to a plethora of reasons https://twitter.com/_Jack_Daw/status/1624766131809447937
Thus, a loss rate >1:3 clearly is in favor of UA. We got many indications, that the ratio is far beyond, at least localised.
You should choose another user name.
And other sources of information.
Pro-Russian reporter says Wagner forces entered Dubovo-Vasylivka in Donetsk Oblast: Blog via Public Telegram Board.
Rashists progressed towards that settlement, but not entered yet.
It was taken two hours ago, but fighting continuing on the outskirts.
There is this video
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/40183
Yes, now we have it 100% confirmed.
*Klishchiivka, potentially indicating a sucessfull Ukrainian counter-attack towards the settlement.*
In fact, it seem that ukrain never Lost the control of a fortified position. Where exactly and how, its another question.
Most probably Vesele (north of Avdiivka) is in rashist’ hands.
The Russians said they took Vesele: https://t.me/RVvoenkor/40102
Deepstatemap announced it this morning.