Invasion Day 350 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 8th February 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novoselivske
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Chervonopopivka, Kreminna, Dirbrova, Shypylivka, Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne, Vyimka, Vesele, Fedorivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian 30th Mechanized Brigade arrived to the area to stop the Russian break through north of Bakhmut.
- Based on geolocated footage, the enemy advanced west of Blahodatne and captured the large fortified positions nearby. (source)
- Video released by 30th Mechanized Brigade showed the brigade’s tanks engaging Russian troops near M-03 highway. (source)
- Ukrainian General Staff reported repelled Russian attacks in the area of Zaliznyanske, Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka settlements, confirming the geolocations of the videos mentioned above.
- Video released by Ukrainian Adam Group shows that Wagner mercenaries advanced closer to Ivanivske. (source)
- Ukrainian General Staff reported a repulsed attack near Chasiv Yar, hinting that Wagner mercenaries also managed to push closer to the mentioned town.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Krasna Hora, Paraskoviivka, Zaliznyanske, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Dubovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Wagner mercenaries entered the northern outskirts of Bakhmut and were met with heavy resistance by Ukrainian National Guard. The fighting continues. (source)
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Kamyanka, Avdiivka, Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian troops attempted to advance towards Vuhledar, but entered a minefield and were forced to retreat by Ukrainian artillery. (source)
- Ukrainian General Staff reported a repelled Russian attack in the direction of Bohoyavlenka. The enemy likely attempted to bypass Vuhledar from Pavlivka or Shevchenko settlements.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Bohoyavlenka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Marginal Russian advance north of Kupiansk. Deepstatemap is confident Dvorichne and eastern part of Hryanikivka have been taken (i.e. changed from “unknown status”)
No more news about Ramzan activity. Does his squadron exist yet?
His squadron is probably a bunch of teens shitposting Russian propaganda on Reddit
So the russian offensive is on. The current cold snap is forcasted to last no longer than 10 days. Will be interesting to see if it can produce opertional successes or just more of the typical slow grind aka self impalement. The first impression feels like russia is doing the later, again. Hard to see how lyman will fall till end of february… and then its mud again.
Bakhmut may be taken by Russia within 10 days (in fact, at this point I kind of expect it), which is a success for them, but I don’t think there will be any other major shifts in the frontline in that time. I think the Russians would be fortunate to even reach and start fighting at Lyman by the end of February, much less re-take it. The Ukrainians will be under a lot of pressure,… Read more »
If the Russian offensive has started, which I doubt, it’s already a failure as nobody has noticed it.
@Dwarf: Bakhmut is really a story in itself, since that typical super slow grind goes on for ever now.
@Patrick: Well, it did start in the sense of a lot of attacks along the front line, supported by pictures, oryx numbers and well established ukrainian MoD numbers which have shown to be consistent with the Oryx numbers concerning gear. So i noticed it, and some others seem to too.
I doubt this is a full blown offensive, too little casualties for the alleged 500k men army, my guess is that they’re sounding the frontline to find or create weak spots in the Ukrainian defences and then exploit them to advance, that would indeed be textbook Russian doctrine.
No, this is not Russian textbook. The Russian doctrine has failed because it is outdated and there is too much corruption. Russia is already adapting its doctrine to the modern times, reforming its army. But it will take many years. The Russian military knows that their doctrine is completely inferior to the NATO doctrine. And their armed forces have missed the technological and strategic progress
It started, but at this stage of this war, ruSSians are not capable to do nothing more.
Last year they have thrown on Ukraine 75% of their military units (240 000 troops) supported by Omon, Rossgvardia, mercenaries, BARS volunteer units, D/LNR milicias and haven’t achieved any of their strategic goals. So how they could achieve something meaningfull now?
It depends what you consider meaningful.
les russes lançent des vagues comme pendant la seconde guerre mondiale ils ne savent rien faire d autre
This site is like:
Day 24, Russian forces were defeated in X.
Day 27, Russian military were unsuccessful in Y.
Day 33, Russian forces tried to advance but were repelled in Z.
Day 36, Russian army were repelled and failed in W.
Day 50 (2 weeks after the event) Russian forces took X, Y Z and W yesterday but it’s insignificant.
That is how Russian offensive looks like 😉
Every day they are assaulting Avdiivka, Maryinka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut and every day they are repelled with heavy casualties.
Tbf if Russia had a site like this it would look exactly the same, but just with Ukrainian forces repelled there and here.
Jerome knows how to read the Ukrainian reports, since they like to be very vague with what they mean and have to be deciphered sometimes to get the truth. Most people just assume the absolute best when they read Ukrainian reports, but it’s most often not the reality.
The reality is that after 1 year of fight, the russian has taken aprox. 46.000 square km. The surface of the 3 North estern region of Italy: Friuli, Veneto and Trentino. Not a lot for the army some decade ago, should have reach the Rein River in 3 weeks, and the French atlantic coast in 6 weeks.Now after 6 month they may take Bakhmut, a 70.000 peoplev city, before the war start. Congratulations
The Ukrainian army is a much more formidable Force then the French, Polish, or British during WW2. Everyone seems to carry this misconception that the German offensives at the beginning were “genius” and the Germans had this new strategy called “blitzkrieg”. They were the most competent army in the world at the time and they just used the same strategy the Prussians have always used just with
engines. The only difference between world war 1 and 2 is the allies were prepared for the first and caught in a pathetic state for the second.
Sorry I know you weren’t talking about the Germans in WW2, I just feel that’s where everybody got there notion of how the soviets would perform and what they would do if the cold war got hot.
Hm, hm, hm, in the well established power ranking of the “world military report”, i do not remember the exact name, Ukraine wasn´t in the top 20 befor the war and Russia was second. I think Ukraine mad the top 20 in the newest.
I’m talking about experience and quality. France had Better and more tanks and artillery then germany at the start of world war 2 but they neither had the doctrine and tactics nor the will to fight against the Germans again. The point being as I’m sure you’ve all noticed the Ukrainians are fighters and there very good at what they do, at least there elite units. Perfect example is Vuldehar
its not defended by some random Mechanized brigade its Black Zaporozhia the 72nd I’ve been watching them, and a to a lesser extent the 92nd and 93rd, ever since april or may quickly moved to where ever shits getting hot Kharkiv Lyshashank pretty sure they even helped defend Kyiv.
It is not difficult to defend oneself against alcoholics, unmotivated, starving, force-mobilized and hypothermic soldiers… Here you can clearly see that it is not the number of weapons that is decisive, but still the human factor.
Yeah, and Day 74: Russian forces retreated X, Y, Z, W due lack o supplies.
if ukraine can not start an offensive in next 10 days – somewhere, but best in south to mariupol or melitopol – its over, then now is the culminating point in this war.
you know, you already have had your ‘3 days to Kyiv’ event comerade.
Thank you for your suggestions how to fight general armchair commander neorst ! With your help Ukraine army will be unstoppable !
Ahaha armchair specialists are the best, wait for spring, let the russians gain some ground to extend their supply lines like they did last year same period and repulse them afterwards… UKR generals are just temporizing for the right moment, enough NATO supplies and all the western tanks together.. then hit hard and fast like they did for Izium / Lyman region liberation
dreamer, more stuff and faster delivery – since months we hear this – next days zelenski will ask for troops.
now this, from a chinese fortune cookie – if you dont act on the battlefield, the other side dictates your fate. I stated this above, because there were rumours from zelenski &co., they like to start an offensive – so now is time….
Stupid russian bot.
Ukrainian President Zelensky says Ukrainian forces cannot leave Bakhmut because “we have to hold on until we get weapons”: Local News Outlet Photo via Channel 24.
Probably just posturing while they are leaving the city. The only way they could keep Bakhmut now is by counterattacking russian troops north and south of Bakhmut, but it’s probably not worth it.
At this point I would just be worried about making sure the fall of Bahkmut doesn’t turn into a larger breakthough. They did the same thing with Seivrodonetsk in the summer; staying too long in a mostly encircled city for political reasons. If I where in command of Ukrainian forces I would pull out while I still can without a mess.
there was no ‘great breakthrough’ (otherwise RU would be already in Dnipro, because ‘the Great Breakthrougs’ looks exactly that) after fall of the Severodonetsk (or rather douthern flank, aglomeration was evacuated not ‘taken’.
I suppose they are leaving slowly.
Long Live Russia ! Long Live Putin !
I am sure, Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Zaporizhia, Dnipro, Khrakiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa will fall this year !
Hope Russia will invade Poland and Germany too…
Sino-Russian Alliance will make US fall soon…
If you feel better after this mantra, repeat it three or four times a day or don’t limit yourself at all…
Go read a book.
Why not Warsaw, Berlin, Paris Madrid and Lisbona, from there you can organize landings on the East cost of the USA?
Taking the Moon is paramount. For the Galactic Russian Empire. Long Live for the Darth Putin!
According to general staff of Ukraine. Could it be mentioned when it is an evidence ? Or be counterbalanced by the Russian narrative ?
I am not say to be counter balanced with baseless narrative, but ISW itself is founded by former US army and many seniors from western countries not by Russia
I am not say to be counter balanced with baseless narrative, but ISW itself is founded by former US army and many seniors from western countries, it’s not founded by Russia
Why ? Russian narrative is usually just lies. If you want to eat russian shit, you’ll find many propagandists who will feed you.
Ukrainian reports have been proven quite reliable. They sometimes lies by omission (they don’t say which assaults have not been repelled) or are imprecise, but when they say an attack had been repelled, it is true.
So far, Jerome’s methodology has been very good.
you cannot say that, Russia is not a lie. Simply the category of truth does not exists there. It’s another, strange world (kinda). At least viewed by the ‘Russian Soul’ binoculars.
Yes, vranyo https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DFz59GWeTIik&ved=2ahUKEwjXpKWZ-4f9AhUDUKQEHaBuCpkQjjh6BAgHEAE&usg=AOvVaw0W-_IJI1zjlFOEQsckplmH
If ISW map is true, then Bakhmut is almost encircled, Russia will only needs about 4 kilometers advanced toward Chasiv Yar, then all of Bakhmut main supply and railway was fallen
Why this map is difference from ISW ?, by this map Russia was captured entire Krasna Hora and Paraskovika, only few meters from Yahidne railway junction, and Yahidne itself, southern outskirt of Bakhmut, almost reach Torske toward Lyman, captured Synkivka toward Kupiansk, and almost reach T0504 main road…
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
I’ve seen many maps of this conflict and Jerome’s maps rank #1 imho. He doesn’t rush things, he takes into account all verified evidence (geolocalized footage, etc) and he updates regularly
I like ISW analysis but their map is mediocre at best.
Other good maps:
pouletvolant
defmon3
jominiW (very irregular updates, useful for strategic perspectives)
You misunderstand ISW maps. The yellow areas in ISW maps are areas claimed to be taken by the russians, which means that the russians claim they control the area without any visual proof of these advances. Militaryland maps only show confirmed claims and usually corroborates with ISW confirmed control areas.
I’ve found that the truth lies somewhere between the red and the orange on ISW. The deepstate map is good.
“Claimed by Russia” … didn’t they claim destroying Abrams (not build yet), Bradley’s (not arrived yet) and the whole UA air force 3 times ?
I would be extra careful with these claims
Do not demand the truth from the Russian!:))