The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 17th January 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Svatove direction
- A recent footage shows Ukrainian troops at the eastern edge of Novoselivske. The settlement is ruined, but it seems Ukrainians control of what’s left.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions near Bilohorivka (Luhansk O.), Verkhnokamyanske, Spirne and Bilohorivka (Donetsk O.). Neither attack was successful.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Wagner mercenaries entered Sil and captured the train station. The urban area is now under Russian control.
- The enemy attempted to use the newly gained positions at Sil to advance towards Krasnopolivka. The attempt wasn’t successful.
- Russian troops reportedly entered the outskirts of Klishchiivka, but given Ukrainian fortified positions on the high ground nearby, it’s not a big deal if true.
- Ukrainian defenders repelled Russian attacks in the area of Mayorsk and Pivnichne.
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- Fighting continues on the north-easter, eastern and south-eastern outskirts.
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- The enemy, again, tried to break through Ukrainian lines in the vicinity of Krasnohorivka and Kamyanka. As usual, Russian forces failed to do so here.
- Russian troops assaulted Ukrainian positions near Vodyane, but the attack was repelled.
- A Russian recon element probed Ukrainian positions near Nevelske, but the soldiers of 59th Motorized Brigade repulsed the attempt.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- A complicated situation is reported from Marinka, where the enemy continues to advance by a few meters every day.
- Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks towards Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Prechystivka and Velyka Novosilka. Russian army seems to be looking for a weak spot in this area for potential upcoming offensive operation.
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
Hi Jerome, thanks for the great work.
I wanted to ask if you know anything about the situation in Zaporozhye, where the Russian offensive allegedly began.
Some commanders of the Wagner group posted a video on telegram two days ago saying that they do not feel they have taken Soledar because they are under constant shelling, they have no place to cover and that Prigozhin and the Russian MOD had a fight and they are not getting any artillery support. They continue saying that are being slaughtered and they their situation in Soledar is f***** up.
The official telegram of the former President of Russia Medvedev.
Tomorrow, at NATO’s Ramstein base, the great military leaders will discuss new tactics and strategies, as well as the supply of new heavy weapons and strike systems to Ukraine. And this was right after the forum in Davos, where underdeveloped political party-goers repeated like a mantra: “To achieve peace, Russia must lose.”
And it never occurs to any of the poor to draw the following elementary conclusion from this: the loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war. The nuclear powers did not lose major conflicts on which their fate depends.
But this should be obvious to anyone. Even to a Western politician who has retained at least some trace of intelligence.
The problem is that Russia is waging a war of conquest under the protection of nuclear weapons. You should know that if you dare to attack NATO even with a single nuclear weapon, Russia will be obliterated by NATO’s nuclear arsenal and then all the Z-ers and their children will go to hell, where they belong. It never occurs to Russians, that you’ve been warned before invading Ukraine
Do you think there will be winners in a nuclear war??? Watch the film Threads, 1984
No but I know there will be dead Russians. What a shame to end the world and kill yourself just because you wanted to annex lands that weren’t even yours
It’s funny how when Russian TV is talking about “sinking” the UK and western Europe with nukes, everything is okay. But when the west dares to say there will be retaliation, we’re suddenly hypocrites and don’t care about the world.
Russia doesn’t care about the world, it never should have occupied Ukrainian lands. If there is nuclear war, it is your fault. Ukrainian borders of 1991 are final.
Nobody wins a nuclear war. Therefore, Russia should realize that attacking its neighbors and threatening nuclear weapons when the attacked country is defending itself and receiving support from the whole world is nonsense.
Russia is not fighting for its existence, but Ukraine is. If Ukraine were to lose, it could disappear as a state, and we don’t want to admit that.
Those who fight with hate always loose. Make effort to relieve yourself from the hate that has taken root in your heart.
Hope that children will die in nuclear blast and go to hell, will send you there before them.
That is what evil looks like. But I believe there is good in every person, and I hope you find it within you.
Evil is what Putin is. There is nothing good in him.
The fate of Russia does not depend on the war in Ukraine. Russia can withdraw their troops at any moment to end this war. Nobody will invade Russia or anything, even if the Russian army is defeated.
This is a war of aggression, decided by Putin, continued by Putin, who is responsible of every death, of every destruction. You want to save Russian lives? Overthrow Putin and withdraw from Ukraine
unfortunatelly it does in a way. Since Putin (“The Russia itself”) nailed himself to the conflict, until he and his possy will go, the war in one way or another will continue.
But the important thing is that Russia does not depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia were to lose, Ukraine would simply remain independent, but Russia as such would remain within its borders and with its leadership.
it is ‘bearscaring’. Give your own pound of flesh to ‘tame a bear’ if you see that so necessary. Powers, including nuclear ones were defeated in war. Russia collapsed 4 times in the last century (and this is far more realistic than many thinks but far less probable than many woukd want) it can make us that pleasure again (and ‘Power collapsing’ is related also for the US –>
–> so we should not be overconfident).
Grow up and accept that ‘avoiding’ in such a way possibility of the nuclear exchange today is equal to certainty that it *will* happen tomorrow.
Stop preaching!
According to Deepstatemap’s territorial control estimate, the RU army has gained 40 km2 in 10 days (1855 km2 – 1895 km2) on the Bakhmut-Soledar-Klishchiivka front. Along
the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna front, territory assessed as being under RU
control increased from 17 386 km2 to 17 407 km2 (+21 km2). No changes on the other fronts.
I made an analysis on my channel using deepstatemap and in the first 14 days of january russia captured 115,34km2 of land, already subtracting ukrainian gains.
the irony is that they still control now less of Donbass than they have before (in the Summer).
yep, since they lost lyman and izium
True, their advance continues to be slow and painful. There is no domino effect as such. If they continue progressing (and it’s a big “if”), I don’t think they will take Bakhmut before February and Siversk before March.
Some fun hypotheses:
Ukraine slowed down the counteroffensive to lure russia back into attacking mode to draw easier casualties while waiting for the spring end of mud season in the more relevant south and to draw more western support in fear of a prolonged war or a loss to russia. Mpre support, more time to train and enough russian casualties.
Fun hypotheses, but ever thought that any land that has been taken by force will need to be retaken by force? If Russia losses a lot of troops during this offensive, then so will Ukraine.
If russia gets defensive after they took bakhmut and other towns, Ukraine would need to take them back, whilst russia then has time to fix their issues, get their support, train and stack up ukr casualties.
It goes both ways for both sides. And if Ukraine wants that land back, then they would need to go on the offensive themselves. It’s a back and forth till one side has no steam or flesh left and Russia got a lot of flesh and staring to get some steam too, whilst Ukraines steam is starting to end only being kept artificially alive through western support, but they also got flesh, so that’s that… Read more »
The last notable gains were in november by Ukraine. Ever since we are in a stalemate. Some 100 km’2 do not make much difference. If you want to lure russia, you need to give it something for its attacks.
Very bloody battles being currently fought west of Klishiivka. Strategically very important for future of Bakhmut.
Is there an official and/or meme name for the fat mushroom shaped complex of trenches southwest of Klishchiivka that are being fought over right now?
I don’t know of any. Reports often mention “fortifications” west of Klishchiivka.
Very well, Fort Shroom it is!
Wagner allegedly took Klishchiivka today. It’s important to check if it’s the town or the fortifications west of it – or both or none…
Deepstatemap has shown the area of Fort Shroom to be Russian held since Jan 13, but no other sources that I can find up to this point have shown those trenches to have fallen. I think Fort Shroom is the line of contact in that area at the moment.
I don’t think the village itself is very significant because given its geography it is virtually indefensible
Klischiivka in itself is not important, but the fortifications (this fort shroom, or whatever it’s called) are. If taken, Wagner can fast-forward to Ivanivska, creating a risk of encirclement of Bakhmut from the west.
Ok we have a statement from Prigozhin claiming the “settlement” of Klishchiivka had been captured but that battles are raging “nearby”. My understanding from this is that the fort has not been taken.
if it would be true it would already happen.
Don’t worry Russians, we aren’t going to make the upcoming offensive easy for you. With the high-quality weapons we supply, a lot of you aren’t going to make it home. That’s the price for fascist imperialism
Or you know, you could leave Ukrainian territory and you’d finally have peace. Until Russia doesn’t realize the reality that it has stolen territory, there will never be peace, because nobody will just accept that, a lot more people will have to die for nothing
Agreed! But I see it as the Kremlin’s push to re-constitute their Communist empire.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied_intervention_in_the_Russian_Civil_War
The countries of Europe have been invading the territory of the former Russian empire for hundreds of years. Since 1918.
A pity that they did not destroy Stalin back then, it would have avoided millions of deaths/deportations. 1939 USSR’s invasion of Poland (allied with Hitler), USRR invasion of Finland, over 100,000 people deported to Russia from the Baltic countries in 1941, the great famine of 1930-33 and the gulags. Putin has also a brutal resume…
(1)The state formation existing around Moscow is an absolutely incorrigible conqueror and in each of its next incarnations it tries to increase its territory at the expense of its neighbours.
The Grand Duchy of Moscow (1328-1547) successively swallowed up the Vladimir, Yaroslavl, Nizhny Novgorod, Tver, Velkoperm, Ryazan and Rostov principalities and the Novgorod and Pskov republics
(2)The Moscow Tsardom (1547-1721) added territory from the Urals to the Pacific Ocean in the east and to the Caspian Sea in the south
The Russian Empire (1721-1917) added Alaska, Kamchatka, Chukotka, the Amur basin, the territories of the ‘stans in the south, the territory between the Caspian and Black Seas, Finland, the Baltic, and part of Ukraine.
(3)After the collapse of the Russian Empire, the Bolsheviks annexed Kazakhstan to the RSFSR during the Civil War (1919) and, under the pretext of the creation of the Soviet Union, Ukraine (1922), Belarus (1922), Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia (together 1922)
(4)As the Soviet Union it occupied and annexed Turkmenistan (1924), Moldova (part of 1924, the rest as Bessarabia 1940), Uzbekistan (1925), Tajikistan (1929), Estonia (1940), Latvia (1940), Lithuania (1940), part of Poland (1945)
(5)And now, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has not let up and is invading its neighbours again and threatening the whole world. Gypsies are not such bad neighbours either.
And so What? How many wars we fought against each other? All european country, more or less, invade their neighbor the last centuries. The only difference with the Russian Is that we understood Is better tò quit, Russian are still keep going.
War is like a fire.
If you throw firewood, the fire will not go out, but will flare up even more. Think about it
The Kremlin is capialist not communist.
Just visualize ‘Capitalist empire’. Using such a designation might actually make some people think and this is sub-optimal. ‘Putin wants to recreate Communist Empire’ is just better, trust me
“Communist empire” is an oxymoron. I think “empire” itself is apt enough.
https://www.quora.com/What-Country-has-been-involved-in-the-most-wars-in-the-last-300-Years
France
United Kingdom
USA
Again : how does this justify Putin’s genocidal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 ?
When was the UN decision that this was a genocidal invasion? Or is it your fantasy?
You don’t need a UN decision to recognize a genocide.
Deportation of children, rape at a large scale, the destruction of Ukrainian culture, all that proves the genocidal goals of the Russians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism
Don’t digress, this is about a specific Russian invasion of a specific Ukraine.
And who was the first to invade the internal affairs of Ukraine? The overthrow of the legitimate president of Ukraine, Yanukovych. Who started it all?
What exactly does Yanukovych have to do with this? Ruzzia has always claimed he was an independent head of state, so how and why would overthrowing him be Ruzzia’s business and in what crazy way would that allow Ruzzia to invade Ukraine?
The “legitimate president of Uraine” was a corrupted pawn of Moscow, and he may have rigged the election.
But anyway, the revolution of 2014 does not justify the russian invasion. Russia is 100% guilty, they are backstabing traitors who did not respect the international laws nor their own promises (Budapest memorandum).
Re writing history now?
you are asking quira, you get the answers you deserve.
Take a jump!