Invasion Day 320 – Summary

The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 9th January 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Svatove direction

  • The enemy probed a Ukrainian defense in the vicinity of Stelmakhivka and Makiivka and retreated to its original positions.

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

  • Russian forces attempted to push Ukrainians out of the vicinity of Chervonopopivka, but didn’t succeed.
  • Given a recently released footage, it seems Ukrainian troops entered Dibrova and the settlement is contested at minimum.
  • Ukrainian defenders repelled Russian attacks on Bilohorivka (Luhansk O.) and Rozdolivka.

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Heavy fighting continues in Soledar.
  • Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov said the enemy managed to advance and gained fire control over the main supply line to Soledar.
  • Soledar is defended by 46th Airmobile Brigade, and elements of Ukrainian Border Guards, SSO and 17th Tank Brigade.
  • The enemy attempted to advance in the area of Krasna Hora, and advanced by a few meters. The direct attack on the settlement was however repelled.
  • Russian forces tried to gain full control over Pidhorodne, but so far we lack any evidence if they were successful or not.
  • Russian troops assault Ukrainian positions near Klishchiivka, but are unable to advance due to favorable Ukrainian positions in the vicinity.
  • The enemy conducted a recon by force in the direction of Zalizne and retreated upon contact.

Bakhmut City

the city of Bakhmut

  • Russian forces advanced in the forest north of the industry area and reached a complex of buildings there.
  • Given the Russian advance in the forest, the nearby radio tower is likely under their control as well.

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

  • Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the area of Vodyane and Pervomaiske.

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

  • Russian forces attempted to advance towards Krasnohorivka, but were denied and retreated.
  • Fighting persist in Marinka, without much change on the ground.
  • The enemy tried to break through towards Pobieda, but was again repelled.
  • Russian attack towards Novomykhailivka was also repulsed.

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.

Kalanchak Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

  • No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.

Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

 


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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.

 
 
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Patrick

Dorozhnianka (south of Huliaipolie) changed from UKR-controlled to “unknown status” https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/47.5504/36.3847

About 10 days ago, RU sources claimed control of the settlement.

LouisChen

Good map to find out the situation of the war!

Patrick

The current state of play according to Rybar: https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/01/10/20230110225716-51bf3fe1.jpg

Patrick

Wagner in Soledar. Coordinates indicate city center
https://t.me/brussinf/5521

Patrick

Prigozhin has just announced that Wagner had taken control “of the entire territory of Soledar”. Fighting is continuing in the centre where Ukrainian units are reportedly encircled. There are prisoners. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/35664
 

Cory

Hey Jerome,

I just wanted to say thank you for maintaining this site. I love reading your updates! Have a great day!

Max Beckhaus

Well, hoping that I am proven wrong but: It looks like Russian mobilization, slow western support (tanks, planes!), ammunition issues and the Kherson retreat stopped Ukrainian momentum. If this holds true, that is very bad news for everybody and probably the worst for Russia. Ukraine will win, because it will win the contest of will, and it will be rebuilt with western help.

Max Beckhaus

But Russia will just decline, and decline, and decline. If this drags on for years there will not be much left.

Aleksey

How old are you.
What country do you live in?

Max Beckhaus

Old enough to know that wars are decided by will and logistics and that the first can compensate a lot of the later, e.g. i saw Afghanistan winning twice, which is why russia has absolutly no chance of winning this. The question is only how long it will take. I am also old enough to have a mother whos homes in Essen and Hanau got destroyed while the country fought a lost war till the… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

And how old are you and in which country do you live?

Patrick

Western and particularly US support is the determining factor, in my view, even more than motivation. Another unknown is Russia’s ultimate military capabilities. By this I mean the potential it could reach in terms of military production should it decide to shift gears towards a full-fledged war economy. Propaganda aside, there is no “all-for-the-front” doctrine yet.

Max Beckhaus

Yes, western support is the biggest variable in the equation, but not concering the outcome, rather concerning the duration. Western support will always be big enough to fight on, and fight on Ukraine will, at least until the boarders of 23.2.22, i would argue until Russia, or better what is left of it, left the whole of Ukraine.
The will, or motivation is the reason why Russia will loose.

Max Beckhaus

No, there is no “all-for-the-front” Russian doctrine yet, but all policies in that direction, like “partial” mobilization, have a long term price tag which will just further the Russian long term decline. Also Russias economy is based on commodity exports and not on industry anymore, which in turn greatly reduces its industrial mobilization potential.

RainArtemisia

What happened at Pidhorodne?

MeNeutral

Russians managed to breakthrough, although I don’t know if there is visual proof that they took it.
It usually takes 1-3 days till Wagner makes statements or gives proof.
So you can imagine that it can take a long time, till things are proven and certain.
The only time you can be 100% certain of the truth, if there is distinct evidence or the opposing side admits to losing land.

Patrick

Latest Deepstatemap update marked Pidhorodne as RU-controlled.

Patrick

Also according to deepstatemap’s territorial control estimate, Russian forces gained 14 km2 in the last 24 hours in the Bakhmut/Soledar area.