Invasion Day 254 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 4th November 2022 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Briefly:
Russian forces reached the center of Pavlivka town in Donetsk Oblast, but were successfully pushed back by the Ukrainian defenders. Combat activity in the vicinity of Bakhmut and Soledar has decreased as the enemy focuses on the area of Vuhledar and Avdiivka.
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Svatove direction
- The enemy tried to regain lost positions and attacked in the direction of Makiivka and Nevske. Both attack were repelled.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian defenders repulsed a Russian attack towards Bakhmut.
- Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions in the vicinity of Mayorsk, but they didn’t succeed.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Lysychansk direction
- Russian troops attacked in the direction of Bilohorivka, but the attempt was repelled.
- Ukrainian forces repelled yet another Russian attack in the vicinity of Spirne settlement.
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- The enemy attack in the vicinity of Avdiivka was repulsed.
- Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful attack in the vicinity of Vodyane.
- Russians tried to advance in the direction of Pervomaiske, but were unable to gain new positions and retreated.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Yet another attack towards Novomykhailivka was repelled.
- Russian forces managed to break through Ukrainian lines and entered Pavlivka settlement, subsequently reaching the center of the town. However, they were unable to hold the positions and were forced to retreat.
- Ukrainian defenders repulsed a Russian attack in the vicinity of Prechystivka.
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- No change on the ground during the past 48 hours.
Kherson Front
includes the vicinity of Kherson and Mykolaiv
- Ukrainian forces liberated Mala Seidemynukha settlement.
Full map
The full overview map of current situation.
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This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Abdirmal? It is not a name
Let me do something very german and state the obvious: we are in a stalemate phase again, with obvious advantages for ukraine. Feels like it may be the quite befor the next storm. The economic winter for russia is coming for sure. The mobilization exodus and oil sanctions at avarege oil prices will hit hard. German gas storage is full.
Meanwhile russia is having a forseeable bloodbath at the frontline with a new record high in december. Economically and militarily bleeding hard. Letz see how long russia wants to keep that up. Feels like putin is clinging to the hope that mobilization will turn the tide in spring. Next spring and summer will show if russia can get anywhere with total war.
October brought the new record, not december…
I sadly don’t share that optimism. In a few months’ time Russia will have deployed 300 000 more soldiers and while they might not be particularly good, we should not underestimate the power of hordes. Western countries are slowly getting Ukraine fatigue and Ukrainian energy is in serious jeopardy. With the arrival of new Iranian missiles, I need to stress: Ukraine needs more air defence and money
Air Defence and Money is pledged. Hordes can be effective on defense. It is very unlikely that Russia can generate any meaningful offensive combat power in the foreseeable future. The energy issues won’t change Ukrainian will to fight. Concerning the west, I am very confident that it won’t change fundamentally till presidential elections in the us, in two years. Russia will be bankrupt by then.
I and analysts like anders puck Nielson believe that Russia can‘t keep this up for long anymore. I think things will start falling apart with ammunition depletion, probably somewhere next year.
The new meat will be set up like a dam, quality units like Wagner will lead concentrated attacks with considerable strength on narrow routes. Ukrainians will need a change of tactics in these cases. Of course, strong breakthroughs with a threat to the Russian rear are best, but the best soldier will tire if he is up against four times the number of non-soldiers or brawlers.
You say that russian will continue with the same strategy . Why do you want ukrains change is strategy? Russian didnt learn.
300k is not enough.
And a part of this 300k are now kia, wia or prisoners. If the things happens very well for russia, in 3month they will have 200k fresh troop with the quality of the third army (not good). Its optimist.
Svatove and pavlivka area are full of dead mobiks.
Dolgan, are you from Ukraine?
No