Invasion Day 126 – Summary

 The summary of the 126th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 29th June 2022 (Kyiv time).

Day summary:

Russian forces continue its advance towards Lysychansk. There are many unconfirmed reports flooding the social media regarding this area, and in cases like this, it’s always better to wait a few hours till we get a confirmation, either from the official sources and visual.

The other frontlines remains without change. Russian army focuses solely on the capture of Lysychansk.

Kharkiv Frontline

includes the area of Kharkiv and Chuhuiv

 Kharkiv & Chuhuiv direction

  • Russian troops attacked Ukrainian positions at Dementrivka, without success.
  • Ukrainian defenders repelled the enemy attack in the vicinity of Zalyman and Dovhalivka.
  • There are conflicting reports about who is in control of Dovhalivka. It’s been marked as unknown control until we learn more.

Siverskyi Donets

includes the area of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut

Slovyansk direction

  • Russian forces are trying to break through Ukrainian lines at Mazanivka – Dolyna – Bohorodychne. The fighting continues.

You can find detailed maps of Bakhmut and Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk area below.


Bakhmut Area

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Russian forces have gained new ground north of the powerplant, in the vicinity of the M-03 highway.
  • The enemy regained the recently lost ground in the northern outskirts of Klynove.

Lysychansk Area

includes the vicinity of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk

Lysychansk direction

  • Russian forces advanced from Mykolaivka towards Spirne. The assault was stopped in the area of the Lysychansk – Bakhmut road.
  • Ukrainian troops discovered and eliminated two Russian sabotage groups in the vicinity of Berestove and Verkhnokamyanka.
  • Russian troops advanced closer to Verkhnokamyanka from the direction of Vovchoyarivka.
  • Russian state media RIA claims Russian forces established a pontoon bridge north of Privillya and subsequently captured the town. However, satellite imagery doesn’t confirm it and the source haven’t provided visual confirmation yet.
  • Ongoing fighting is reported from the southern outskirts of Lysychansk and the nearby refinery. Russian army has reportedly deployed two BTGs in the area, outnumbering Ukrainian defenders. In the evening, Russian troops reportedly entered the refinery proper from the south.
  • Due to the worsening situation around Lysychansk, we’ll likely see a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the town in coming hours.

South-Eastern Front

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Donetsk Oblast

  • The enemy tried to regain its lost positions near Pavlivka. The attack from the direction of Yehorivka wasn’t sucessful and the enemy retreated.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Kherson Frontline

includes the vicinity of Kherson and Mykolaiv

  • There was no change on the ground in Kherson Oblast. However, notice the high-intensity of shelling near Chornobaivka, Partyzanske, Bilohirka and Arkhanhelske.

Ukrainian side announced a strict embargo on all information regarding Kherson Oblast and advance of Ukrainian troops. The only allowed source for this area are the reports by Ukrainian General Staff.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

 


Looking for an interactive map? We got you covered. Visit our original Deployment map.

If you would like to use our maps in your project, video or any other media, please visit Invasion maps page for more information.

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), geolocated footage and press releases of Russian Armed Forces, self-proclaimed DPR and LPR

 
 
 
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cwDeici

— accidental duplicate

Last edited 2 months ago by cwDeici
cwDeici

My apologies, a minor correction, 73% of Belarus is against the government. Quite beautiful of them to fight so hard, despite the propaganda in their country.

cwDeici

On a happy note, the Russians are now digging into Belarusian munitions stockpiles. 🙂 It’s a sign many logisticians have been waiting for. Previously they’d been taking heavy weapons from their vassal, now they’re drawing down their heavy munitions. It’s too bad they probably won’t take the Belarusian small arms, since then the overwhelming 70% opposition (unlike Russia, where 70% actually believe their insane propaganda, I got called a Nazi today for supporting Ukraine further… Read more »

cwDeici

Belarus does not have the quantities that Russia has, nowhere near. It’s indicative of Russian desperation, and how deeply Russia controls Belarus.

cwDeici

It shouldn’t have any significant effect on Belarusian politics, but it may have a small additionally destabilizing effect if Russia loses, though even in that event I expect the government would remain in charge, as military commanders are pro-government and willing to shed the blood of their citizens. Ironically, if Belarus joined the war, it’d probably be the best thing for Eastern Europe long term, as Belarus’ medium-term fate would likely be an overthrow by… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by cwDeici
cwDeici

—-

Last edited 2 months ago by cwDeici
cwDeici

Shame on you, author, you’ve literally let Russian disinformation posters take over this forum, after BELATEDLY banning Russian posters calling for NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST if they didn’t get their way you’ve once again let this forum become an evil pile of rubbish. You’ve one poster, Dex, claiming that Ukraine has four times the infantry of Russia, and that he used to support Ukraine, and that he supported a Ukrainian refugee family, but (paraphrased) “there’s only so… Read more »

cwDeici

This is why the great majority who supports Ukraine can’t be bothered to post here much anymore. Check out the threads back in February and March, and probably April, they’re far more positive, but the chickens have come back to roost on a naive and foolish policy of not actively modding the community.

Vladimir

Do not pass from a sick head to a healthy one: the site provides more or less OBJECTIVE information. And comments are PERSONAL opinions of users. Why do you think that ONLY your opinion is correct? Are you a god or his representative on earth?

Tristan

3 months ago, most people who commented (or simply voted for comments) here were pro-Ukraine. Since this site provides accurate information and thus is often cited, it has been the target of russian propagandists (like almost evry important website), who now are maybe a visible majority.Some (like Vladimir) are openly pro-Russia. Other (like Dex) claim to be “neutral” or from a western country to give more weight to their falsehood. But it doesn’t matter. Downvotes… Read more »

Vladimir

It looks like there is a ring around Lisichansk. The question is how many VSUshniks and mercenaries are left there. I think my estimate of 7 days ago – 2000 – is too high. But 500-1000 probably remained (not the fact that they will be captured!) plus equipment.

Colin

What mercenaries? Liar!

Frujin

Reading through the comments I am left with the impression we are watching completely different conflicts. Scrolling down you will see opinions ranging from “NATO isn’t/hasn’t done enough and the supplies are not enough/ the Ukrainian military is doing poorly” to “Russia has no weaponry or infantry left to fight the war” and everything in between. Now, I will not dwell too much on this (I have no desire to be writing essays in a… Read more »

Dex

Why almost all of you have this absurd plea for shortcomings in the infantry in the Russian army? The year is 2022 and modern armies base their strength on the quality of firepower, secondly on quanity firepower itself. Only in the third place in the very living force. Infantry is a maximum of 20-25% of the number of soldiers who participate in modern combat. You don’t have to throw hundreds or thousands of soldiers as… Read more »

Tristan

Amazing. Every word that you just said was wrong. The russian army fights poorly, has already lost many men and equipment that they have to resupply themselves with 60+ years old stuff. Their “precise kalibr missiles” hit mostly schools, hospital, malls and civilian houses. On the contrary, Ukrainians are way more precise in their attacks and artillery strikes, and they do well despite their inferior numbers and equipment. Yes, they are mostly on the defensive… Read more »

Dex

The state of abstraction in which you live best describes the last sentence: “I expect them”. LOL

Vladimir

Ha-ha-ha!!!! Do you really believe it????? We win finally, definitely. And we will ONE country like earlier. Who is not agree – will erased.

Colin

Fascist talk from a ruzzian.

cwDeici

This is accurate, and the state of the votes is really indicative of how poorly this forum is run.

Vladimir

Well, it’s clear – everyone who is against and does not share your opinion, enemies and Putin’s agents.

Colin

Ruzzian nazi.

Matthias

The year is 2022 and modern armies base their strength on the quality of firepower, secondly on quanity firepower itself. Only in the third place in the very living force. On all three accounts the russian army fails to be a modern army, then? I mean, you cannot really call the russian firepower a thing of quality. It’s more like “shoot enough and you will hit something eventually”. Not to mention maintenance of the material.… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Matthias
Dex

Read with understand and then write back. PLS I clearly wrote about the tactical use of infantry in Ukraine by Russian and Ukrainian troops. And you write about cruise rockets. It is impossible to have a normal discussion in this way. If you think I am wrong, indicate exactly where I was wrong and why, but refer to my words and not to the Russian Army in general. PS. What do you have to say… Read more »

Matthias

You were writing about how the russian army, in 2022, is acting like a modern army on account of 3 destinct characteristics that defines an army as “modern”. I made the point that at least 2, but maybe all 3 points do not apply to the russian army. I understood what you wrote, I just do not agree I think you are wrong especially about the quality of firepower, and yes, that includes the quality… Read more »

Dex

Well. The difference between us is that I studied at an officer school for 5 years and served in the Polish Army until 2020 (21Y). I have been to "special operations"(NO WARS OFC) in Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Chad and the UN Mission in the Golan Heights etc. I look at this war from a "technical" point of view. I consider it based on what I saw, what I learned, and what I taught younger soldiers.… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Dex
Matthias

That is an impresive resume in a job and service that I would not dare to step into. In all honesty I congratulate you and I am thankful for your service.
Impressive as it is, it does not change anything with regards to this discussion

Colin

Bombardment at distance is a primative tactic, just bigger shells. Not clever tactics. Ruzzians would last about a week against a nato onslaught with heavy weapons.

Dex

Matthias. From your posts it appears that you are a resident of Germany. I am Polish. So I have this "pleasure" to learn about the influence of Germany and Russia on the history of my country. What you write (after editing) is all right. We agree that the way Russian cars are designed and made is unacceptable to modern man. However. You base everything on your life experiences. If you went to Yakutia with your… Read more »

Matthias

Yes, but that is not the point here. You are distracting We were talking about how the russian army is (not) a modern army. I don’t care about shiny cars in Ural. And russians shouldn’t neither, because they are fighting in Ukraine, at 20-25degree celsius. How their army performed in winter late February and begin of March we already know. The word that crosses my mind in this regard is: poor. You remember all the… Read more »

Dex

Which Russian IVF or APC do you think has side entrances?

BTW. Where does the HMMWV enter? To the side too? Impossible!

Matthias

BTR-80 for example. Where all other armies in the world choose APCs with a door in the back

HMMWV is an armored/infantry fighting vehicle, thus more like a car, and they have doors on the side, which is correct. But I did not talk about IFV or AFV, but personnel carriers.

Last edited 2 months ago by Matthias
Dex

Show me where I wrote that the Russian Army is modern?

I wrote what modern combat is all about.

I also wrote how the Russian army fights.

However, I did not write that it is modern.

Read, understand, and then reply.

Pax

Matthias

Why almost all of you have this absurd plea for shortcomings in the infantry in the Russian army?The year is 2022 and modern armies base their strength on the quality of firepower, secondly on quanity firepower itself. Only in the third place in the very living force.Infantry is a maximum of 20-25% of the number of soldiers who participate in modern combat. If you really try to make the point now that you did not… Read more »

Vladimir

You are absolutely right. It’s just that the people who write so actively here are supporters of American “democracy”, not noticing the fact that they themselves have become authoritarian creatures in their opinion on the principle “who is not with us is against us.”

Colin

Thought you zed you didn’t wanna write an essay! Ruzzian troll.

Vladimir

Then you must admit that you are the same troll, but the pindos (american).

Colin

So far wrong.

cwDeici

This is inaccurate and Russian propaganda, do you really believe this person let in a Ukrainian refugee family?

The state of the votes really reflects how the OpFor has taken over this poorly run forum.

Henry Whitworth

The folks dismissing the weapons coming in from the West as a drop in the bucket should look again. The effort to really arm Ukraine didn’t begin until after the war was going on for many weeks. But then it really did begin. At the point that Lend-Lease was signed along with $40 billion to fund it and Austin came to Europe to put together the NATO team in Germany, that’s when it began. They’re… Read more »

RutilantBossi

Quantity is a quality on its own, Ukraine might have better tech but Russia has better numbers, plus Russia can just pause the conflict if things go south since Ukraine likely has no major offensive capabilities outside forested areas due to their lack of air superiority and armored units.

We should send Tanks, Helicopters and Jets, otherwise this will become a second Nagorno-Karabakh in which, if you remember, Armenians were winning until they weren’t anymore.

cwDeici

I wouldn’t be that pessimistic, the Russians are grinding down and the Ukrainians are building up, but you’re right that quantity can be helpful when the country isn’t completely incompetent. Russians can learn to some extent in several months, unlike the Assad regime which took several years to learn nothing on how to defend Alleppo in many cases (Air Force school only had some tyres outside of it).

Henry Whitworth

Russia’s learning curve could be a really important part of how this plays out. It’s no joke that the Red Army was just a feast for the Werhmacht for a long time. But by the time of Kursk, it was another story. The main hope here is that Putin has no such length of time available or unlimited power over his domain as Stalin did. It’s also heartening to remember that millions of Ukrainians fought… Read more »

Michal Slastan

I would not say so. At Kursk they won, as always, by sheer numbers and blood. The Red Army is about as coordinated as Taliban militia.

Dex

edit/ wrong place.

Last edited 2 months ago by Dex
Vladimir

But it always defeated all kinds of fascists, but of course like the Taliban … ha ha.

Last edited 2 months ago by Vladimir
Matěj Cepl

Yes, the Soviet (and Russian) tactics “нас много” (there are many of us) worked for them quite well in the Second World War, but the sad fact of life is that there aren’t that many of them (meaning, soliders ready for combat) any more. I think it is quite obvious Moskaly are running out of people, when they are now able to sustain only offensive in a very limited area and it costs them a… Read more »

cwDeici

I mean, I take heart in how many officers he’s fired and lost. They’re learning to rely on their artillery mostly, and not make horrendous mistakes, but the Ukrainian army is learning western military standards. At the end of the day the Communist dictatorship was still somehow less kleptocratic and incompetent than the modern day Russian government, so while I’ve been worried I think it’ll be fine. Witness the massive number of ammunition depots Russia… Read more »

Henry Whitworth

I hear you. I understand the pessimism based on what we see on the ground there right now. I just suspect Ukraine is going to roll out more of a force than most people are anticipating and it will be within a couple of months. It’s worth noting that Russia’s gains have come largely without air superiority and armored advances have been largely irrelevant and sometimes disastrous for them. It has been an artillery war… Read more »

Henry Whitworth

Oh, I should mention that Ukraine likely has a decent tank force ready for an offensive. They haven’t really stuck their neck out that much to this point with their armor which was more prodigious at the start of the war than most people realized. Since then they’ve recieved at least a couple hundred new tanks from Poland and a few other countries. Following European publications I picked up on the fact way back in… Read more »

Matěj Cepl

Quantity is not so much quantity when it is not available. According to some articles (this one is from the November last year, but I don’t see any reason, why it would make it wrong), Russian army has trouble to operate more than 150 km from their large supply dumps. Now, HIMARS (according to Wikipedia) has the range of the smallest ammunition some 84 km and I am not 100 % what they’ve actually got (the maximum… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Matěj Cepl
cwDeici

The fact that there are 11 downvoters to this high quality post is proof of how infected this website is with Ruscists and Ruscom.

Henry Whitworth

Thanks. I’ve taken to mostly just ignoring them and talking past them. They’re just so goofy. Unfortunately they are effective in derailing conversations in a lot of places.

Anna

 Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of the US arm forces in Europe said more than a month ago that the momentum will shift in Ukraine’s favor around mid-July and the Ukrainians will start serious counteroffensives in August. He declared that June was going to be extraordinarily difficult for the Ukrainians. And it has been, though not as bad as I had expected. Hodges’s assessments have has been pretty accurate so far. He predicted… Read more »

Vladimir

It just shows that you are a fascist.

Last edited 2 months ago by Vladimir
cwDeici

And Zelenskyy is a self-hating Jew Nazi.
Russians truly are stupid, to fall for their own propaganda.

cwDeici

And Israel supports Ukraine. Of course, Ruscists and Ruscom (70% of their nation), who believed Putin when he said there was no invasion or war coming, all totally suddenly believed that Ukraine was about to attack. You guys will literally believe ANYTHING your evil government tells you, and it’s why you have such an evil government and rape and kill while claiming Ukraine and NATO are the ones killing and raping Ukrainian civilians (even as… Read more »

Colin

And you are a ruzzian nazi!
If you want to begin name calling.

Colin

No No – you are the one with the nazi credentials.
Every twisted word shows you up for what you are.

cwDeici

PS. The M270 we know so far are (most likely) 3 from the UK, and another 3 from the UK (replaced by Norwegian ones).

Last edited 3 months ago by cwDeici
Henry Whitworth

Thanks.

cwDeici

I have to disagree about Russia having to move their big hubs back that much further, maybe a few, but they’ll have to be moving some of the smaller, outer distribution points back.

Henry Whitworth

They’d better be more than 60 kilometers away from anywhere Ukraine can show up with those launchers. The Pentagon let it be known that they’ll be sharing satellite targeting intelligence for the HIMARS crews. It’s pretty telling that the Kremlin didn’t make more of a fuss over that. We’re pretty much in the battle as artillery spotters at this point. I mean, that had leaked out already but they walked it back a little after… Read more »

cwDeici

Indeed. 🙂

And there are SO many ammunition dumps blowing up right now.
I just don’t think they’re the BIG ones. Maybe we’re thinking of different categories.

Vladimir

If you think that the supply of weapons will radically change the situation, then you are naive, like … Napoleon in 1812, or Hitler in 1941, or the Pindos now. You, an American fascist, will never understand the Russians and you will always be surprised, how come….everyone is against them, but they won again. If you don’t understand, don’t try. Just accept it as a fact and don’t get in the way of the Russians.

Colin

Look up fascist in dictionary – then look,at your leader!

Julian

Is there anywhere I can find the battalion patches and what battalion they are so I know who is fighting where?

Frujin

Do we have any sort of tactical information about the situation in Pavlivka – troops numbers, casualties and so on? I find this quite interesting and whether this is just local commanders doing their own thing or actual high command effort.

Dex

Russian troops reportedly entered the refinery proper from the south.

Not supposed to, but for sure. Even yesterday, there were Russian propagandists from Ria Novosti in these plants.https://ruprop.live/ria-novosti-correspondents-were-the-first-journalists-to-visit-the-oil-refinery-near-lisichansk-which-was-liberated-by-the-russian-military-and-transmit-footage-from-the-scene-риа/

And this is a message confirmed by photos and videos from 19 o’clock yesterday. Thus…

Matthias

I follow these updates as soon as they come out and I try to understand the strategies on both sides. I really have a hard time doing so. I am by no means a military expert, never held a gun in my hands and do not even consider myself an “armchair general”. I just try to understand things, and I fail up to now. for example: Why still fight in Lysychansk? The lost of the… Read more »

Henry Whitworth

I think the fact that Ukraine keeps choosing to stay out in exposed positions like Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to fight it out until the last minute implies that they are accomplishing what they want by doing so. They’re destroying enough Russian forces to make it worthwhile. Consider that the estimates of losses on each side are extremely difficult to confirm and likely they’re very misleading. Russia lies like crazy about their “accomplishments” throughout… Read more »

Matthias

I think the fact that Ukraine keeps choosing to stay out in exposed positions like Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to fight it out until the last minute implies that they are accomplishing what they want by doing so. They’re destroying enough Russian forces to make it worthwhile. Yes, otherwise they wouldn’t do it, I guess. But understanding what it is they accomplish is the thing, and I seem to miss something there. You are… Read more »

Patrick

No way the Ukrainians are overestimating their losses. It would be the first army in the world doing this. On the other hand they have plenty of good reasons to underestimate their losses, one of which being that every death “costs” tens of thousands of dollars in payment compensation. Many families will unfortunately not get a single gryvna.

Henry Whitworth

One quick example, George McClellan in command of the Union Army. He constantly overestimated his own army’s losses and the strength of the enemy. He was kind of a clown but in some ways his motivation was similar to Ukraine’s. He exaggerated his own problems to try to get more forces supplied to him. This, most certainly is not the “first army in the world doing this.” Maybe study history for a few minutes before… Read more »

Henry Whitworth

I think what they achieve is to inflict serious losses on Russia’s combat power while Russia is still engaged in their offensive. Trying to drive them out of defensive positions later will be more difficult in some ways and so they want to degrade their battalions as much as possible while they’re out in the open trying to drive forward. The choice to fight at Sievierodonetsk, which puzzled so many people, gave them a clear… Read more »

Nemanja Bjelica

Wrong! Ukraine does not overestimate it’s losses. If it did this then other countries will think twice about sending arms to the losing side. If anything they are underestimating their losses as all sides do in a war. Since the beginning of the war we have been hearing how the Ukrainian side is defeating the Russians on all fronts and that Russia is having way more casualties than Ukraine. One thing doesn’t add up. If… Read more »

Henry Whitworth

Russia has brought up a lot of reserves that weren’t a part of the original invasion force. And Russia came in with a massive advantage in firepower. That advantage is beginning to wane. Notice that their “gains” are in a tiny part of the front in their secondary objective after they failed at Kyiv. They take Sievierodonetsk and don’t have enough forces to stop Ukraine from grabbing back settlements on other parts of the front.… Read more »

Nemanja Bjelica

You are assuming the Russians wanted to take Kiev at that stage. There is no evidence of this. They used it as a manouver/feint to tie down Ukrainian forces that have focused to defend Kiev as strategically the most important city. This allowed the Russians to take Mariupol. The Russian withdrawal from Kiev occured at the exact time when it was established Mariupol would fall. Other Western analysts have confirmed this view like Colonel Douglas… Read more »

Tristan

There are plenty of evidence that Kyiv was their main objective (Russians sent half of their forces to try to take Kyiv, including their best troops, ell their plans assumed a rapid collapse of the ukranian army, which could only happen if they took Kyiv quickly, etc) “Kyiv was just a distraction” is just some BS russian said when they were beaten and had to retreat. Anyone who accepts that propaganda seriously is not a… Read more »

Michal Slastan

In 1968 they did the same thing in my country and it worked. They landed paratroops in Prague and the whole commie establishment that wanted to give people a little more liberty folded right away. They wanted to employ a shock and awe tactic, bud found an angry mob with handguns and molotov cocktails. ruZZians quickly folded. This brutal failure mauled their trained troops. Probably lost them this war. If the ruZZians lose, of which… Read more »

Colin

Ruzzian Lies my friend.

Michal Slastan

They tied down civilians with molotov coctalis. Dont be silly.

cwDeici

I find Ukrainian announced losses to be reliable and their estimates of destroyed equipment near 1.0 reliable and their estimates of Russians killed at about 0.85 (compared to Russian leaks).

Last edited 3 months ago by cwDeici
Henry Whitworth

I dunno. The source for some of the most quoted reports of Ukrainian doom were coming from a presidential advisor, not from any military source. And some of the people saying these things were throwing out very different numbers. These are a lot of the same people saying goofy stuff like “We need a thousand rocket launchers.” Not a serious assesment of what is possible or necessary when talking about the rocket launchers we’re sending.… Read more »

cwDeici

Well, they wanted 300 western-grade MLRS, which obviously was not going to happen, that’s a super-power quantity of equipment, and basically equates to ‘we want to cake-walk Russia’. Cute though

Poland IS ordering that many though
Defense stocks ho!

Last edited 2 months ago by cwDeici
Henry Whitworth

” And now that russia doesn’t need to care for political correctness ever again, what stops them from marching towards Moldavia over a few years with fresh troops?” The Ukrainian army equipped with superior NATO weaponry stops that. It also stops them from just using the “land bridge” and starting up settlement and industry in the occupied territories. Just looking at their incremental territorial gains while ignoring the fact that they are failing in destroying Ukraine’s… Read more »

Augusto14

A few things: As long as Lysychansk is held (which, I concede, will become more and more difficult each day), the Russians can’t build pontoon bridges over the S. Donets river but need to move all troops previously amassed to conquer Sieverodonezk in quite a circle to the new front, be it Lysychansk or the Sieversk-Soledar fallback line. This will cost time, and also lots of fuel (those Russian tanks are anything but fuel-efficient). The… Read more »

cwDeici

First of all, just like Crimea and the parts of Donbass Russia has gained so far, they’ve all fallen into economic ruin. Secondly, Russia is running out of their massive storage of weapons and munitions, they can certainly continue to sustain war at replacement rate once it’s gone, but their capabilities will be much diminished. The same goes for skilled personnel, Russia can stealth mobilize reservists and throw them into the meat grinder, but the… Read more »

Matthias

I wasn’t around when my home country tried to invade Europe in 39-45, so no, I had no expectaction of the outcome of that war. If it wasn’t for Hitlers stupidity of declaring war against US and not listening to his generrals with regards to his russia campain, yes, they had a good chance of winning. At least in the short run. But WW2 is not the issue here. I am no defeatist, no fatalist,… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Matthias
cwDeici

Thank you for your replies, sorry I was mildly hostile. We should keep asking questions as you say.

cwDeici

It’s good that you take us all with a bit of salt. And I agree if Hitler hadn’t gone nuts it would’ve been difficult to dislodge him, and that it’s not that relevant. As you say it could be difficult to take back the entrenched areas, Russians aren’t Arabs who can’t learn to set up defenses in seven years, like in Aleppo. But their morale is low, so if the Ukrainians can get sufficient offensive… Read more »

Dex

What a wishful thinking. Yous should play Lotery today. You must win!!

cwDeici

If you don’t think your military is rubbish Dex, and that they don’t use many units as cannon fodder, then I suggest you go join it, or on the off chance you’re not Russian, that you become a mercenary for them. You’d probably make much more money than you’re doing now.

Of course, the odds you’ll die are quite high, and you probably understand that, so you’re not going to join them.

Last edited 2 months ago by cwDeici
rock

My layman’s opinion: If the shells from the Russian side were not flying at the (relatively, sorry to all Ukrainians) insignificant Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, they would have landed elsewhere. Zaporozhye? Odessa? Kharkov? Dnieper? Kiev? This is how Putin’s rabble will – hopefully – exhaust themselves in the Donbas. It’s a tragedy, they’ll make that country the new Flanders (WW1), but maybe they can be stopped there gradually. And if Ukraine has the strength to counter-offensive,… Read more »

Matúš

i am angry and sad, want Ukraine to win this stupid ruSSian war, but how?

MeNeutral

Bleeding out the enemy only works if you yourself don’t lose more troops.
Stalingrad tactics don’t work anymore and will never in a democracy, cuz people don’t like dying.

Artur

Because of superior Russian artillery firepower, in the second phase of the war, the Ukrainians are being bled much more than the Russians, that’s for sure. 80% of Ukrainian casualties have not even seen any Russian on the battlefield. The tactics that Russians are using are to soften Ukrainian defense with artillery, then probe the terrain with recon groups. If they face Ukrainian resistance they pull back and use more artillery. If not they claim… Read more »

Michal Slastan

Nuts. The ruZZians are bleeding. So is the morale of their armed forces. And the economy of homeland. Let them bleed their slow death. After the war, the international community will make them pay.

Artur

Chill man. You hyperventilating instead of thinking rationally :S

Michal Slastan

Nonsense. I’m all calm.

Vladimir

The Russians must have done something to his mother. That’s why he’s so biased. Joke.

Vladimir

Have you forgotten that the Russians liberated your country from fascism? It turns out that you yourself are a fascist or their descendant. That’s why you’re so biased.

Colin

Hey Vladi boy – stop fkn your sister.

Dex

Ukraine should: kneel down to work long and hard with your mouth and hands, and then swallow everything neatly so that nothing falls to the ground. This is a good start. Then proceed to negotiation and maybe … I repeat, maybe … this war will be tied without losing 50% of the territory And more seriously, there is nothing at this point and it does not indicate that Ukraine has won it. Oh, miracles happen… Read more »

Last edited 2 months ago by Dex
RutilantBossi

It is hard for me to imagine Pryvillia fell so easily, i’d expect there to be quite a bunch of Ukrainian soldiers and being it a urban enviroment surrounded by forests defending infantry should resist quite a bit. I think it is highly unlikely Ukraine will manage to liberate Kherson, a pretty big chunk of the Russian forces is ammassed there waiting for Donbass to fall so they can aim at Mykolaiv, Ukraine can’t do… Read more »

Henry Whitworth

NATO is sending heavy equipment to Ukraine. About 130 155mm Howitzers from the US and hundreds of armored vehicles so far. 4 HIMARS in coutnry already blowing stuff up behind Russian lines with 4 more on the way. More medium range guided rocket launchers from the UK. Untold numbers of Grad and other rocket launchers from European countries. Hundreds of tanks from Poland and a few other countries. Dozens of state of the art self-propelled… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Henry Whitworth
Kris Wustrow

Henry, do you honestly think that 128 of the towed M777 artillery, the 8 M142 HIMARS, the 7 PzH 2000s, the 3 M270 SPGs (from UK) is enough? This is a pitiful show of “support.” Hell, Biden is sitting on over 1000 of the M109A6 Paladin SPGs, over 800 of the M270 SP MRLS, and 640 M142s… We are in the 5th month of this war, and the Western supply of heavy weapons is just… Read more »

asdf

Yeah 130+ howitzers on 1400 km of the frontline. Amazing numbers :/ I have read yesterday interview with ukraine soldiers from Donbas area and they said that they have only 3 howitzers per 40 km. Compare this to the Russia numbers.
Not mention to HIMARS…

Last edited 3 months ago by asdf
Frujin

While the support of heavy weapons is still currently low, especially one from the Western powers, the problem is in the training programs. There is a large effort currently underway in Poland for this but it will take time, maybe 2-3 months till all that is finished and I believe it is completely understandable if the West doesn’t want to “rush” it’s technology in the hands of some Ivan (not saying that the Ukrainians are… Read more »

Dolgan

For 155mm at last count, we are at 300 .

Its just the beginning.

vachefolle

we dont have to think in term of Russia logic (Quantity) but Quality. These HIMARS/M777 are long range systems which can hit strategic Russian target deep in the front. Think that if every day Ukr are able to destroy one single strategic target (ammo stock, control command, ….) war will be easly win by Ukr.

Henry Whitworth

Well, it’s not going to be easily won by Ukraine but I believe they’re going to win.

And I think you’re exactly correct that pretending we have to match the numbers of artillery tubes and rocket launchers is misleading. Anyone who who knows the difference in capabilities between the weapons of the two sides should understand this instantly.

Augusto14

Actually, over the last days quite a number of Russian bases/ ammunition depots have been destroyed in the Luhansk hinterland, and also in Polohy (Zaporoshje front), and Izium. HIMARS seems to have played quite a role (Bayraktar, howitzers and sabotage teams may have come on top). We’ re going to see the effect (I believe we are already seeing it on the Zaporoshje front and S of Vuhledar), and it shouldn’t be underestimated. Will probably… Read more »

Henry Whitworth

No, it’s not enough and it’s also not all that is being sent. Biden is doing a good job and it is ongoing. The trolling is silly. I was responding to someone talking as though it was still months ago and the heavy equipment hadn’t even been approved yet.

Colin

Many western nations have “donated” up to a one third of their own military battle field equipment to Ukraline.
That is alot

Michal Slastan

And we are making more. Compare the economy of the western allies against ruZZia. Tea in moscow on christmas anyone?

Colin

Much too optimistic!
Ruzzia might take the Donbass and offer a ceasefire?
Once Ruzzia is dug in they will be hard to remove from occupied lands.

Vladimir

Better we are coming in Prag; we again liberate your country from fashism. Like allways in the history – the russian solders in Paris, Berlin, ….. Forgot, ex-nazi?

Colin

Vladi – open your eyes and unblock you ears.
Stop listening to these stupid ukraine is fascist nonsense.
Ruzzia has loads of right wing neo nazi thugs.
Yoy leader being the main one.
Are Ruzzians so stupid and brainwashed, sad sad nation!

NXP

Other sources report Pryvillia has been simply abandoned by Ukr forces due to general withdraw from Lysychansk.

Augusto14

It is so far pretty unclear whether Pryvillia has fallen at all. I have read somewhere (yes – that’s pretty weak evidence, and I can’t even provide a source at the moment, for lack of bookmarking) that recent satellite pictures don’t give any evidence for a pontoon bridge allowing for attack on Pryvillia. Respective claims have come from Kadyrow’s Chechens (notoriously unreliable) and the LNR (somewhat better, but also not really reliable). Pro-russian channel Rybar,… Read more »