The public lynch of 115th Mechanized Brigade is unjustified and unfair.
Russian forces, in surprise to many, reached the edge of Ocheretyne on April 18 and entered it two days later. The settlement, located north of Avdiivka, was supposed to be a Ukrainian strong point which would held the Russian advance for at least a few weeks.
According to Mykola Melnyk, the Russian advance towards Ocheretyne was a result of certain Ukrainian units leaving their positions without an order. Almost immediately, a witch-hunt and hateful speech against 115th Mechanized Brigade was spread by Ukrainian social media accounts and bloggers. Those, who pretended to stand by Ukrainian nation by all means, suddenly became hostile towards one Ukrainian combat brigade. Mykola Melnyk admitted that 115th Mechanized Brigade is partly responsible for this, but not only. The “not only” is important here, and many ignored it.
We went through hundreds of posts on social media, analyzed reports day by day, and managed to get a possible overview of the situation at Ocheretyne. Apart from 115th Mechanized Brigade, there were two other units operating in the area.
115th Mechanized Brigade covered the right flank of the railway (Novokalynove). On April 5, 1st Mechanized Battalion is known to be in this area. On April 12, the element was reinforced (or rotated) by 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the same brigade. The brigade was never fully deployed to the area. The information about 115th Mechanized Brigade replacing 47th Mechanized Brigade is false. They replaced either 23rd Mechanized Brigade or 1st Tank Brigade near Novokalynove.
425th Assault Battalion Skala was deployed on the left flank from April 12 (or sooner) to at least April 21 (or later). On April 17 and 18, soldiers of the unit operated in Novobakhmutivka.
104th Territorial Defense Brigade covered Ocheretyne itself. It’s known that on April 16, 59th Territorial Defense Battalion operated in the settlement. However, it’s unknown if they operated on their own, or the battalion was assigned under the command of 115th Mechanized Brigade, and it actually doesn’t matter.
This isn’t a blame game. If you want to ask questions, then ask the commander of Tactical Grouping of Troops Donetsk (responsible for an area between Velyka Novosilka and Horlivka), why he decided to deploy a single territorial defense battalion to defend such strategically valuable place, and why, on the right flank, were elements of a brigade that doesn’t have its own tank unit and fully-fledged artillery unit.
The command, seeing the Russian advance towards Ocheretyne, dispatched an element from 47th Mechanized Brigade (from left flank) and 115th Mechanized Brigade (from right flank) to stop the Russian advance. Neither counter-attack succeeded.
And while people on social media argue who is to blame and lynch 115th Mechanized Brigade all over the internet, the brigade has lost more than 20 soldiers (killed or missing) during the last few days and continues to defend the right flank.
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Who could tell the truth if a unit refuses orders and retreats or deserts ?
For sure no ukrainian official will admit that but let’s wait if the russians will deliver intercepted calls what has happened.
It is time to mobilize all ukrainian male & cowards inside our country that do not learn our language nor do they work or fight. They sit at home living a good life.
Have the Russians fully captured Ocheretyne or are there still active battles in and around the town?
There is no geolocated footage of the enemy presence in the northern part of Ocheretyne.
Also would it have been wiser to set up defensive positions west of the Vovhca river instead?
The battle for Ocheretyne is over: https://deepstatemap.live/en#13/48.2434/37.6239
The next objective is likely to push north towards Arkhangelske and west along the railway track while other units will look to bypass Keramik from the east in a pincer maneuver aimed at trapping Ukrainian units in a pocket.
This is just a rumor, there is no geolocated footage to support such claim.
Geolocation is the ultimate proof but reports from reliable sources having contacts with soldiers on the ground can’t be dismissed as ‘just rumor’. It’s much closer to being confirmed than a rumor. To me there is no doubt Ocheretyne has fallen.
Thanks for the detailed and thoughtful analysis Jerome.
“Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.”
You wrote that the village is strategic but why is it strategic? How vulnerable will the Ukrainians be now, and how many villages will be easier to capture?
Also, I think all the keyboard warriors on social media should volunteer to join the Ukrainian army instead of blasting a bunch of hate speech to soldiers living through hell. They have don’t have a f*cking clue what these
soldiers are going through.
Also, please fix the comment limit. You’re doing a good job Jerome
Ocheretyne is a strategically important town: (1) it is on high ground, which will ease Russia’s task of developing its offensive further in all directions, (2) Vital logistics routes, linking three key military hubs – Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka – will be under fire control.
In Ocheretyne are fortifications from the time of the Donbas war. They were supposed to serve as the foundation for the new defense line. With the rapid fall of Ocheretyne, expansion of this line with the help of heavy equipment is now no longer possible and, most importantly, the line is already compromised.
Watch this video https://youtu.be/gMtURT7Xd14?si=43ZcWyVZLDYHQ0L4
It explains how a breakthrough here can endanger the Ukrainian defensive positions in Berdyichi, Semenivka, Umankse (Used by Ukrainians as a defensive line after the fall of Avdiivka) This will force the Ukrainians to abandon these 3 villages a few kilometers back and will also put the town of Novokalynove into salient
Thanks for the explanations on this area’s significance. Keeping it objective. This situation has NOT been a breakthrough so far but rather a piercing of the presumed Ukrainian line. It would be a breakthrough if a lot of Russian forces started flowing through the piercing and gained lots of territory in the Ukrainian rear areas. Let’s hope they don’t.
All those critics of the Ukraine milary .. you should take your ass out there and help them fuckin cowards .. how dare you critique men dying for your freedom….. Almost as bad as spitting on soldiers returning home from protecting your freedom… I can’t stand a clueless critic you know who you are all of you should worship those soldiers.. but , instead you post nonsense while sipping
I think its’ on higher ground and the defenders get a good view of the surrounding fields, sort of like Chasiv Yar.
Much appreciate the sensible take.
It gets tiring watching people search for a scapegoat, huh?
Ukraine’s ideal approach for the next few months is to play area defense – don’t cling tight to any spot. If one line is breached, pull back a klick and savage the enemy’s attempts to supply their new positions. You make the breakthrough a trap and a sink for combat power. Repeat along the Vovcha.
People… people never change. It’s a real shame to see how some things never change. Instead of support, it’s all about tearing down. Rather than thoughtful analysis, it’s just hype. There’s panic and empty bravado instead of a sober assessment.
Thank you Jerome, you speak wisely.
Then who is the the commander of the Tactical Grouping of Troops Donetsk?
Lieutenant General Yurii Sodol
He was promoted recently, I don’t know who is now.