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December 21, 2023

Invasion Day 665 – Summary

The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 20th December 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time). Summary of the day 665 is the last summary released this year. There might be an extra summary in case things worsen for the defenders in Avdiivka, but other…

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The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 20th December 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Summary of the day 665 is the last summary released this year. There might be an extra summary in case things worsen for the defenders in Avdiivka, but other than that, no other summary is planned for the upcoming Christmas holidays. I’d like to thank all our visitors for reading our summaries through the year 2023.

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

  • Ukrainian forces drove Russian troops out of Synkivka, regaining control over the settlement. (source)
  • Russian troops advanced in the forest area north/north-west of Synkivka. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

  • Ukrainian defenders repelled a Russian mechanized assault towards Spirne. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Terny, Bilohorivka, Spirne

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • The enemy gained full control over the Ukrainian fortified positions north-west of Bakhmut overlooking Khromove. (source)
  • Russian forces captured at least half of dacha area south-west of Bakhmut. (source)
  • Ukrainian forces advanced in the area of a water reservoir north of Andriivka. (source)
  • Russian troops captured a treeline north-west of Kurdyumivka. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Sieverne, Pervomaiske, Nevelske

Avdiivka City

includes the city of Avdiivka

  • Russian forces advanced by a one tree line from the direction of Vodyane towards Avdiivka. (source)

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

  • The enemy reached the southern edge of Novomykhailivka from the south. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • Russian forces regained previously lost positions east of Novoprokopivka. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Verbove, Robotyne

Left Bank Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka

  • Fighting continues in Krynky. Ukrainian marines continue to repel Russian attacks on the settlement.

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

Our community |

Mentioned Units |

No unit mentioned.

Deployment Map

Our unique map showing units, operational sectors and defense lines

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Tristan

Wise words by Timothy Snyder : would you sell them out ?

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/23878

Max Beckhaus

I guess it is that time of the year again:
Bakhmut fell, Wagner fell along, Russian and Ukrainian offensives didn’t go anywhere. The rise of the drone, especially the FPV, is here. Russia fell out of the top 10 GDPs of the world and the economy is still in dire straits. The black sea fleet got beaten up hard and Ukraines ports freed. Ukraines economy is recovering just fine.

Max Beckhaus

And then there was an autumn of democratic squabbling. So what did I miss?

Patrick

I’d add the beginning of cracks in UA unity and the likelihood of growing rifts going forward (e.g. Ze-Za squabble, no pres. elections in 24, growing anti-mobilization mood, etc.)

Max Beckhaus

Yes, that was supposed to be included in the autumn democratic squabbling. It was also supposed to be a look back, not a hot take into the future.

Last edited 6 months ago by Max Beckhaus
san4es

Member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Maryana Bezuglaya said that a Ukrainian citizen was wounded or killed every 5 minutes.

Tristan

And a Russian soldiers is killed or wounded every minute.

All of this can be stopped if Russians go back to Russia.

san4es

If you have a calculator handy, you can calculate Ukraine’s losses and compare them with official losses.

Patrick

It’s now official: Marinka is fully under Russian control (source: Russia MOD).

Tristan

It’s now official: this week, Russians lost 4 Su-34, 1 Su-30M and a warship full of Shahed drones (Source: Ukrainian MOD).

Vladimir

No! this is very little! Write 10 SU-34 and two more ships – and don’t feel sorry for them.

Tristan

You don’t even feel sorry for the Russians who died ? Even I have more empathy for the orcs – I prefer than they leave Ukraine, and stay alive, rather than dying in a useless war.

Vladimir

you have a bad sense of humor – you did not understand my irony in your text.

Patrick

Can you post what you have about the planes?

Vladimir

I think it is the same propaganda like from russian side.

Last edited 6 months ago by Vladimir
Tristan

You want a post on the Ukrainian MoD ? Or a video of the destruction of the plane (it doesn’t exist, for obvious reasons). Instead, why don’t you listen to an analysis of the consequence of these destruction ? At least you’ll learn a few things.

But the destruction of the warship was filmed. Quite impressive.

Patrick

Then it’s unproven at best – or a lie.
The fall of Marinka on the other hand is proven. Zaluzhny has just confirmed the veracity of the Russian MoD claim:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/26-december-commanderinchief-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine
What else?

Patrick

With the same ‘logic’, Bakhmut fell a few days ago only.

Tristan

You quote Russian MOD, I quote Ukrainian MOD. And if you want to test which one is the more reliable, just compare what they both say about the warship attacked in Feodosia

Russians: the ship is dammaged
Ukrainians: the ship is destroyed

Now, look at the video and see who is telling the truth.

Patrick

I refer to the Russian MOD when I believe its information is correct. When it comes to settlements being captured (e.g. Marinka), they are reliable. Full stop.

Tristan

And so re the Ukrainian MOD when they annonces the destruction of thé planes and the warship. Full stop.

Patrick

Warship yes, planes unproven.

Tristan

So, that’s why Russian planes now avoid the zone where these “unproven” destructions happened. You should tell them it’s just propaganda and Ukrainians don’t have any mean to shoot their planes.

Patrick

I am learning that Ukraine has its Bermuda triangle. Please tell us where that mysterious ‘zone’ is?

Jeremy Jones

Interesting video. Unfortunately it could be true it could be not. Maybe they dropped 2. Maybe they didn’t. The problem is infor coming from the MOD Ukraine, has proven to be very unreliable. The other problem is when he says F16 will be game changer.

When you hear a statement like that it kind of discredits what he said prior. F16 won’t change anything significantly.

Tristan

The Ukrainian MOD has proven to be quite reliable (see above).

Now, I am also quite skeptical about what a handfull of F16 can do, but look at what happened when Ukrainians were given good, modern weapons (such as HIMARS, ATACMS and Strom shadows): the Russians suffered attrocious losses.

And if you want to refute what Anders Puck Nielsen says, go ahead, but give some arguments.

Noelle

depends in what configuration and (much more important) with which weapon system. At least, even a squadron alone might give a serious stop for Ru attempts to be brave and careless in air (because for the most part they just can). At best – they would force a serious rearrangement in the fly-planes and combat missions (by incurring some unpleasant and unexpected losses).

Jeremy Jones

I admire how vigorously your try to protect Ukrainian image.

But situation for Ukraine is going from bad to worse. People are sobering up to the fact that Ukraine is losing. Even our media begins to admit the harsh reality. A push is coming to damage Putin campaign. However after his re-election the war will most like begin to come to an end.

JohnnyBeerGr8

And i admire your crystal ball skills, probabilities are not the same as results. Future is not the same as present. Trend does not always mean final result. There is simply too many variables no one is able to count. Ukraine might lose after all, even that little midget thought it will take blitz to get what he wants and now hes trying to swallow it for two years.

Jeremy Jones

My Crystal ball skills are better than Tristan’s for sure. Remember what he was saying at the begining of the year.

Ukraine already lost. It’s a matter of time before they realise it. I think the Blitz was a message of what is to follow. To try convince Zelensky to sign a peace deal. I bet now he regrets trusting the Anglo-Saxons. Poland trusted them also ww2, why now, no idea.

Tristan

On the battlefield, Ukraine is in a better position now that it was last year. Russians lost their artillery superiority, Ukraine got long range drones and missiles that get through Russian defence and destroyed the Black sea fleet, etc.

The only concern is how American Republicans are betraying Ukraine and their own country’s interests.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I dont understand your point about Poland, from 1772-95 they effectively were divided between 3 regional powers. It was Germans and Russians that conquered Poland in 39, it was USSR, that kept eastern Poland after war, killed polish intelligence and made it its satelite. Unless there would be another open conflict with USSR, there was very little USA/UK could do with Soviet presence in Middle EU.

JohnnyBeerGr8

yet the very same Poles use bi-strategic approach NATO/USA and self deterrent capabilities in case no one would come to aid them. Still determined to not come back under Russian rule no matter what Russia wants and time window is closing. Baltic state is bit different case, or was, without Finland in equation. Still, tell Putin to try it and we will then know without theorizing if NATO acts.

Noelle

would you kindly take your arse from the XII century? (this RU proppers with they antiquities are ridiculous).
Anglo-Saxons… why not Picts? Man, if you need to brave the barrier of reason, do it bravely.

Jeremy Jones

He got more than what he wants also. Not only that NATO reputation is down in the ground. Frankly I am not sure if attacks any NATO state after Ukraine that anyone will come to the rescue. As long as it needs, became, as much as we can.

Anyway enjoy guys. See you next year. See who has better crystal balls skills.

Patrick
Triglav

One day the light of freedom will shine over Marinka again. The sunflowers will grow again where Russian boots have scorched the land

Max Beckhaus

OT: Russian planes being shut down left, right and center. Enter the f16 or is it just the new patriot from Germany moving all over the place?
Generally the big Russian attack on the ukrainian grid is not happening, yet? Does Putin wait for election campaign? Has Russia to give up on that idea? After the victory in the black sea the next big strategic victory for Ukraine may loom.

JohnnyBeerGr8

they claim its patriot closer to the frontline, but you know how it is, could be just game. On the other side,some of the Vatniks already announced 3 F16 shot down already ;). Russians will adapt anyway after initial surprise, plus they still have plenty to spare no matter how priceless it is. Situation is dire and curious how Ukraine will adapt to, im bit worried, to be honest. West sleeps still

Max Beckhaus

Dire? I still don’t see any reason to believe that Russia is able to mount an offensive that is seriously threatening. We shall see what happens in the USA, but we have a nice test going now how it could look like 2025. I wouldn’t call it sleeping, more half awake. Current plans are 1 million art. rounds in the EU in 24 and in the US in 25 plus at least 2% GDP defense… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

If you include the Ukraine aid, Germany will be well above those 2% next year. Germany, GB, northern Europe and most of the east will be in for good, and that is no joke. The rest of the west will limp in what they see fit. We will see what that means, but their dib will be available in any case. So no, even in worst case scenarios I don’t see things being dire for… Read more »

Last edited 6 months ago by Max Beckhaus
JohnnyBeerGr8

yes, dire, banks wont fund dirty weapon industry and still pursue ESG index even 2 years after the war start. There is country that publicly shouts stupidities like in 30s last century and Europe is still playing the music and playing ostrich game. If you listen to the stories from UA soldiers youll hear also other facts than what you just mention (i know big picture, tired..), its also will

JohnnyBeerGr8

not only technology (and they say its same serious like feb22) and west give such little to what it could provide. Many NATO countries hardly recover back to 2% criteria for their own countries, alas spending stupid 1% solely for UA. Its just crap, playing roulette with UA nation if it endures R or not. UA keeps going cause they have no other choice, thats similar to Israelis.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Ofc there is probability, and i dont think thats too small, that R will crumble (soldiers, wifes, money, equip), you know my opinion about that (russia collapsed at least 3 times in the last century, plus hunger where devil west supplied food in 1920s), so thats almost inevitable in time, its not North Korea with one Korean nation, but 140 nations and ethnics. Still angry UA will play the bait.

Kay

As an RU expert once said… Despite all the sanctions, nothing will change for the Russians. They have always lived in poverty and grew up with empty shelves. Where there is nothing, nothing can be taken away. Politicians have never been trusted, the only thing they have always been able to rely on is the army.
There is no better description of RU.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I like the poetry, im familiar with Russian mentality already. No need for melancholy – Like i said, yet they failed as a state or even empire 3 times already in last 100 years for different reasons. Theyre not cockroaches or superhumans, things after all change, but War, war never changes.

Max Beckhaus

I understand your sentiment very well, even though I am over that phase for quite a while now. The west never wanted Ukraine to win fast, if win at all. That being said, we are closing in on 200 B pledged and I won’t fight with you over the definition of ‘dire’, but Ukraine ain’t losing and considering they are fighting Russia, that’s something, isn’t it?

JohnnyBeerGr8

yes, we can call it “miracle on the Marne”, no deny about it. Im sorry, i cannot be over the sentiment, I didnt think im gonna relive 30s (exaggeration, maybe, lots similar things, but not the same). So many things like 38 or 39 for that (AUT, CSR, FIN, Poland), rhetorics and claims. 2y, UA bleeding,and in EU still discussing if Putin can be calmed with sort of Minsk 3, where two failed already.

Max Beckhaus

With all due respect for you, if this would be the 30s Ukraine would have been run over in 22. And I don’t know anyone in Europe discussing Minsk 3.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Thats ok Max, we dont have to agree. Differences between us does not change the support for UA, all good and happy new year. Stay healthy.

Max Beckhaus

To you too! I have to admit though that the noise in the USA certainly sounds Minsk 3ish, I just have no idea on which ground this talk is done.

JohnnyBeerGr8

it wont be 1M in Q1 24 cause EU is not able to fund or build logistic chain and start mass production, might be later, but dunno when. Chance´s bigger with US, but there you got elections and 2 party fight about nonsenses.. EG. for mortar shells UA production is bigger than EUs. In Eu, they handed over industry to foreign countries, not easy to switch the wheel back. Half awake isnt enough in 2y.

Max Beckhaus

The last thing I read was that the EU official in charge for the one million art. rounds per year sai that the EU will reach the 1 million per year production early 24 and he said that in roughly November. It is mostly about maximizing existing production lines. The new ones, like in Denmark, take roughly two years. There is still enough industry in the EU, that is not the problem.

Max Beckhaus

Ok, obviously you have to make a difference between the 1 million shells till end of March program, 480k till mid of December, the 1 million production a year, which will be reached, the placement of orders, e.g. Germany made an own order, not via the EDA, which is supposed to stand at 60k, and the obvious problem that of the 1 million produced not all will go to Ukraine. I read quite some

Max Beckhaus

Articles of different munition companies, everyone stated that the books are full and they struggle(d!) to get to their maximum capacity.

Last edited 6 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Noelle

I mean, if they would put 3millions of on the front, and seriously run the ‘depopulate RUssia’ plan of Mr. Putin, then even if most will carry mosins, they simply overwhelm any defense by sheer mass of bodies.

Noelle

not that “plenty”. Planes are costly, annoyingly easy to break (including “this will run on vodka and love for Mother Russia alone!” mantra) and hard to maintain. It’s even worse with the pilots. Sure they can (and they do) cannibalise machines (because production is very low and cannot be easily increased) but there is a finite number of frames and parts accessible.

JohnnyBeerGr8

i understand that, it was you or Tristan sharing french calculation of russian tank stocks. So they will eventually run out same with planes. The plenty was about 140 SU34 being produced prior 2023, 24 confirmed losses and even if taken another 25-40% (maintenance, repair, unknown losses), there is still “plenty” to use. And so far they´ve shown “we use them until we dont have them” mentality.

Noelle

Tristan if anyone.
You are assuming that most of them is in flying conditions. If it would be truth there would be more of them around. Though that might be rather pilots problem than parts and maintenance.

JohnnyBeerGr8

well, im not in Russian military, how could i know the real stuff? Its just regular fog of war. I picked SU34 rather than SU25, cause all of them should be relatively new and could assume the planes could be more flyable. Still could be problems with engines, pilots or whatever ranging from 0 to 60 and approximation is just made from any generic army in peace status. I have no real clue.

Noelle

having in mind how dire situation was (and still is) in other branches I see no reason to believe that RU Air Forces were and are any better. Planes are delicate things. Especially newer ones – a lot of critical stuff which can put machine into miserable status, not always visible for the low quality maintenance teams (they are – if qualified – as precious as pilots).

JohnnyBeerGr8

That maybe all true or maybe not. I could reverse it and then raise question if they were able to lose 4 in one day recently, does it mean they lost all last 4 remaining? They still produce 15 in a year, so there will be more SU here and there. Im trying to understand your point- is it about you say its closer to 0-20 than 0-60 or what?

Noelle

what I am saying is: we cannot rely on the any given official estimates from before the war or any ‘data’ built on it. What we have got are claims and more or less reliable info (like this about RU buying back parts from India) which can produce trends’ estimation but not an actual data. I’d dare to say, that RU themselves still have only rough understanding about the stuff they have or not.

Vladimir

There will be no victory for Ukraine, don’t even hope for your revenge for 1945. We broke you then, we will break you now. I understand that you, a direct descendant of those proud Aryans, really want this. But I am terrible sorry, no chance… .

Triglav

What? I think this is the problem with the current Russian mentality, like as if the Poles, Germans and French want to take revenge for something big, when in reality they don’t care about you. Russia is just a glorified Romania that is simply stealing land and complaining about how others give old weapons to Ukraine. We don’t know if Ukraine will win, but Russia certainly hasn’t won after 2 years

Noelle

you have seriosuly insulted Romanians, mate.

Triglav

Sorry, it wasn’t my intention to insult Romanians, if the post is seen as insulting it can be removed, but Romania is typically used as a prime example of a country in eastern Europe grappling with post-communist problems. While Russia and Romania have similar socioeconomic problems, Romania is often looked down upon, while Russia has managed to make itself look “cool” through its propaganda

Last edited 6 months ago by Triglav
Noelle

it is troubled country, yes, as many others. Though much better candidates for your point would be e.g. Serbia or Moldova, especially from before 2020 (or keeping that in EU: Hungary, Slovakia, Poland for some extend, only speaking about countries I know something).

Kay

We are seeing fewer missile attacks because the Russians have no answer to the efficient Western air defense systems. 80% of all Shahed drones and missiles were shot down. The RU jets are also at risk because the RUS have not yet found a way to locate Patriot systems. The Russians have lost all control of airspace since Patriot and Iris-T deployed to UA.

Kay

At some point the RUS will have to admit that the supply of missiles and drones is almost exhausted due to the mass destruction. There are not an infinite number of Shaeds in Iran either. Both countries cannot keep up with production. The military industry is also suffering from the economic weakness, no matter what they claim. You can’t build rockets out of oil and gas… that’s a fact

Kay

My guess was Iris-T, but Patriot was hiding behind the 24th door… Not bad either. The Russians don’t like either…
https://tny.lv/MsPaU

That was the last door… Merry Christmas.

Anyone who gives thumbs down is a Grinch… (or a Russian)

Last edited 6 months ago by Kay
Max Beckhaus

Merry Christmas 🎄 from Germany.

Vladimir

Hello, I see all anti-russian participants are unhappy! Why? All good, ukrainian armee is winning!!!!

Blaz

Dobrý den všem, mýlíte se, Rusové postupují po celé frontě.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I know trolls should not be fed, but seen you, Vatnik, it just opportunity to repay courtesy laughter how 2nd strongest world army stuck against 20th in 3days operation 100km from its own borders and how their combat mastery is being mocked all over the world. In your imaginary world where everyone is fearing almighty russian power…keep dreaming. Plus USSR collapse vs West 1:0, play it again.

Vladimir

I see you hate russian and understand that in 1945 you didn/t want liberation from fascism, because you yourself were and remained fascists at heart. Therefore, now you welcome the new fascists – blood brothers, followers of your grandfathers. It’s okay, looks like you’ll be liberated from fascism again.

JohnnyBeerGr8

you mean before or after USSR helped build German Tank Schule in 20s or Ribbentrop Molotov pact? Youre just the same branch in different packaging, Vatnik. I generaly hate dictators and stupidity, you can be even martian for the matter. Thats what you will never understand 🙂 funny how you, post soviet fascist call everyone the same, symptomatical. You know nothing else so you label it everywhere

Last edited 6 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
JohnnyBeerGr8

Its even hilarious that evil country as USSR had at least left oriented ideology that could attract some of the people, you have only 70ys old Brezhnev style politician surrounded by his oligarch suite having nothing else to offer to the world from economical, ideological or any other kind of offer. Youre just delusional imperium trying to spread fear to the others, poisoning its own people…

Tristan

Now, it’s the Russians who are the fascists, trying to exterminate their neighbours. Good job, Vatnik, merry christmas to your Putler who is hiding in his bunker.

Sheld

He was just in Saudi Arabia a few days ago lol

Kay

Today 3 doors will be opened

The 21st door accompanies us into the Black Sea… HARPOON
https://tny.lv/-w-mf

The 22nd door clears the Ukrainian sky… Cheetah
https://tny.lv/dETWE

The 23rd and penultimate door gives us the all-rounder at the front… M113
https://tny.lv/rgE3U

Darkness

Have a happy Christmas Jerome, these updates are clear concise and balanced, so sit back and rr , you deserve it.

Comis

I’ll join in and thank you very much for your work, Jerome!
Also thanks to all who deliver informations and good discussion posts here!
I wish you all a peaceful christmas and let’s think of them who will not have one.

Preacher7979

have a good and nice holiday with your freinds & family
your actions are very valuable to us..continue …
your anonymous reader.

Andrew

Happy holidays! Thanks for all the hard work.

Tennie

I hope everyone here has a great Christmas this year!

(That is, except for the tankies, vatniks, and the like, but screw them anyway…)

Ren

Thank you for your summaries Jerome. Merry Christmas and a better New Year for Ukraine.

Tommynho

Have a nice holiday too Jerome. Thank for your all overviews 🙂

Tristan

Have nice holidays, Jérôme. See you in 2024

Question

Thank you for your work Jerome!

May I ask the community for a small outlook in connection for 2024?

I compared the maps from last years 20. Dezember with this one.

The one big change was Bakhmut.

Now we have the difficult Situation around Avdiika (still holding by UKR) and some territory changes in Sapo/Cherson by Ukraine.

My question is:

Will the speed/any visible changes

Question

no matter of for UKR or RUS decrease?

Like, compared to 2022 and 2023, will 2024 be the year in which the lowest changes will happen and how might the military map looks when we are again at the same date?

I don‘t what to get too offtopic when including something like the planes or so, just more a general question to the experienced members.

How could be 2024 in terms of map changes?

Max Beckhaus

I would guess that the USA will approve support for 24 and that we will see a repeat of 23. If I would have to bet with even less movement of the frontline. But it is war and nobody really ever knows…

Pikująca Szozda

Nobody knows. And if they do know, they’re wrong.

Wesołych Świąt. If you can.

Simon

Thank you, Jerome! I’ve read nearly all of the summaries you posted this year.

Happy holidays!

Miles_Ignigena

Thank you for all the work Jerome. Have a restful christmas time and a good 2024, hopefully with a turn for the better for ukraine. Slava Ukraini!

Blaz

Děkuji Jerome, věřím, že příští rok přineseš pozitivní zprávy, Rusové mezitím postoupí nejméně o 50 milionů.