Invasion Day 661 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 16th December 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Russian forces, after numerous of attempts, entered the northern outskirts of Synkivka. The settlement is now contested. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- The enemy advanced in the area north of Klishchiivka and reached the fortified position on the high ground. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Andriivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- The enemy continues to advance long the Avdiivka railway and reached the next treeline. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Nevelske, Pervomaiske
Avdiivka City
includes the city of Avdiivka
- Mechanized units of 47th Mechanized Brigade attacked Russian positions north of Coke Plant, revealing the enemy was likely unable to hold the nearby treeline. (source)
- Ukrainian defenders withdrew from Promka.
- Russian troops reached the first houses in the south-eastern part of Avdiivka. (source)
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- The enemy gained more ground in the north-western part of Marinka. (source)
- Ukrainian command dispatched an assault group from 46th Airmobile Brigade to recover previously lost positions in Marinka. The attack was not successful, and the group sustained heavy casualties. (source)
- The enemy advanced alongside the road towards Pobieda from the direction of Marinka. (source)
- Russian forces also made gains towards Novomykhailivka from the direction of Marinka. (source)
- 79th Air Assault Brigade repelled another mechanized assault on Novomykhailivka. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Russians assault Ukrainian positions north-west of Verbove, revealing that Ukrainian forces control more territory in the area than we previously knew. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novoprokopivka, Robotyne
Left Bank Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka
- Ukrainian marines continue to repel Russian attempts to regain control over Krynky, inflicting some serious vehicle losses. (source)
Due to ongoing raids in the area between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, Left Bank Front has been introduced and Kalanchak Front retired.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Zelensky said the military had asked him for an additional mobilisation of 450,000-500,000 people
And Russians MoD said they intend to mobilize 745 000 “volunteers” in 2024. Alsi, they claimed to have mobilized about 500 000 “volunteers” in 2023.
If Ukraine wants to win, there is no other choice. This is the war and it cant be won while sitting in Kiev.
The Russians are tightening the noose around Krynky. Bad developments for Ukraine elsewhere too, incl. south and west of Bakhmut and south of Marinka.
Russians have lost around 100 pieces of equipment, and many soldiers around Krynky. Bad development is the consequence of MAGA Republicans blocking the much needed aid for Ukraine.
You ain’t seen nothing yet. The MAGA saga hasn’t even started!
Yes. They are ready to do anything for Putin. Americans should get ride of those traitors.
It has nothing to do with Putin. It’s about internal politics. Even Sen. Lindsay Graham (no Putin friend for sure) sided with the rest of the Republicans.
It just means that Lindsay Graham betrayed Ukraine. Republicans are more concerned about staying in power than about helping Ukraine.
If you support Ukraine, you vote the funding package. If you don’t vote the funding package while Ukrainians are short on ammunition, you are just a traitor. No “if”, no “but”, no delay, vote for Ukraine or face the consequences of your betrayal.
The financing package is not just about money for Ukraine. The Reps are also not against giving billions to the UKR. It is a large budget package for many areas that finance politics. The Reps do not fundamentally reject the package; after all, Republican governors of the individual US states also use it.
The main point of contention is financial help with migration policy, where the Reps want more money for it. While the Democrats want to put more into social benefits. Sooner or later there will be an agreement… these are political skirmishes and power games.
Pleased, remember why there is this big package. Trumpists Republicans refused the financial aid to Ukraine alone, and even removed McCarthy when he was about to pass the Ukrainian bill. Border / immigration policy is just pretend, the real reason is Trump hates Ukraine and loves Putin.
Again the same. Fault of the West. Dont wonder in the future if that West is turnining around after hearing constant complaints.
The west isn’t providing enough help, and they should to a lot more. That’s the plain truth. Sorry if it bothers you.
You can also take it from the other side, Russian forces with heavy equipment are unable to push Ukrainian infantry, which has to cross Dnipro, out of Krynky. Russian army, for almost ten years, is unable to capture the air defense base south of Avdiivka and Avdiivka itself.
Sure but the Krynky operation was unrealistic in the first place and at the end of the day the UA losses (there are not only RU losses) will have been in vain. Avdiivka is a different story – most fortified place in UA.
I’d not say that. They (UKR) were able to make quite a mess for not very significant cost. I do not think that anybody, except those beliving in fairies, expected ‘D-say through Dnipro’ or smth. similarily ridiculous.
The main question is whether there is an army that can take Avdeevka quickly
Depending on how you do it… The Russians first destroy the city and then conquer it. However, there are no longer any defensive options or walled shelters, so that the attackers have no opportunity to settle in houses as they advance through the city. And then there is the fact that the Russians have poor infantry, which has been neglected for many years.
So the Russians are making life difficult for themselves when they conquer cities.
NATO would infiltrate the city, eliminate the air defenses and then drop soldiers into the city from the air, for example by helicopter. The Russians mostly send soldiers into the city on foot, from the city limits. Which is very ineffective.
Well, right now we’re seeing similar assaults in Gaza. And the result is just as slow. Fighting in an urban environment, even with total air superiority, is very difficult
We gave you tons of money and weapons to defeat the commies. Might want to speed shit up. Focking Pootin must be buried 10 feet deep. Now be useful and focken hurry up, ya buggers. My focking mortgage is gonna jump soon if you don’t pull your shit together.
Rule Britannia
Patrick, your lack of empathy is shocking
😉
In a recent statement, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov, said that the size of Ukraine’s defence forces is one million one hundred thousand people
Together with the territorial defense forces, reserves, border guards, paramilitary units, etc., that may be… The question is how many of them are combat ready. By combat ready I mean fully equipped, trained and on call
There is a ratio of something like 3 to 1 soldiers for every soldier on the Frontline.
have in mind that these are not toy soldiers lined up to play. Most, probably 2/3 or rather more is in not combat duties – typical ‘NATO standard’ (there is no standard, really) is about 4 up to 5/1 (‘tail to tooth’), depends of the branch.
Your calculation is very optimistic… A combat company that consists of around 3 platoons alone has 20-30 soldiers per platoon. This means there are around 100 frontline soldiers per company. A battalion has approx. 6 companies (500-600 soldiers) and additional Staff/command, supply, maintenance, medic (max. 50 soldiers)
you cannot make such assumptions until you are dealing with the Army in making (during the times of peace and plenty of plenty and a lot of time spent on filling the papers) or historical data. Team may consist from 3 to 12 personnel (usually) but platoon may have only 2 teams in ‘line’ and 3 supporting, or just 3 without differentiation because supporting units starts on the company level->
USMC have different unit size and deployment’s pattern than USAC and let’s not start with the navy companies and the fact that the US has started another reform lately. French, Austrian, British, Polish (etc.) units have got different sizes and OOBs while generally more or less adjourning the ‘NATO standard’.
UKR seems to have (kinda naturally) some patchwork OOBs with seemingly ->
bizzare schemas. And there are guys and gals in hard to determine in ‘standard measurements; units (‘drone brigades’) or not units per se at all (mixed type transport/medevac ‘columns’, rear railway units (UKR has got them, too, kinda), MPs, general support, industry, staffing and necessary pencil pushers outside units’ build (these corps needs a lot of them) and ofc semi- and irregular ->
forces which are still tjere and tends to be hard to manage mess on its own for obvious reasons. And rather none of these units have full staffing ofc. And there you have brigades, regiments (polks) etc.
How its really looks like I have no idea, neither do you.
//RL example:
in my old units I had got once 4 trucks in 2drivers 2 loaders deployment under command as ‘platoon’ ->
but in other unit it was 2 trucks, 1 BMP, semi-truck and one car. It was not a designated platoon but a ‘team’ in the ‘column’ of a ‘battallion’ And at the end of service I landed as brave commander of 3 desks and mine was not any bigger than the two other occupied by prof. grunts and we were a part of a ‘company’. Go figure.
My calculation was just an example of how the ratio should be roughly calculated. The numbers don’t have to be exactly right, but in most cases there are always more operational soldiers than support troops. Combat soldiers are all those who are actively involved at the front.
This also includes drone pilots, forward observers, reconnaissance, fire control, rear artillery, tanks, anti-tank, air defense…
Where I was in the German Bundeswehr, a company consisted of 3-4 platoons and the platoons each had 4-5 teams/groups.
in my time rough tail to teeth ratio in our Army was on standard ‘soviet manner’ (ca ~3-2/1) because despite it was already after the ’90s we still had old design and were not in NATO (the perspective seemed still quite remote at the time).
Tech and industrial/semi-industrial military and militarised support of modern armies consumes a lot of manpower. High proportion of ->
combat vs. non-combat personnel in favour of the 2nd is typical for militias or irregulars, they tends to have not so much of a ‘backyard’. Generally they also are unable to actually support and sustain them for obvious reasons.
Have your unit been ever fully staffed during your time?
***in post above should be:”… ín favour of the 1st…” ofc***
Since all the beds were occupied, I assume that the unit was fully occupied during my basic military service… However, I don’t know what the maximum number of soldiers should be.
it was the Bundeswehr in the peace time and still under constitutional limitations, yes?), so until it was some very specific unit the real staffing was probably below 60% (Army is kinda money drain). In my unit, at leaast according to my commanders at the time, the real staffing including mandatory conscription never peaked above 70%. The peak was in 80s.
Unfortunately the doors were lost for the last three days… The keys were found again, so today three at once.
The 15th door: M777
https://tny.lv/YSz6A
The 16th door is a gift for the Russian rockets and drones: NASAMS
https://tny.lv/xzAAp
And behind the 17th door Caesar welcomes us
https://tny.lv/4aU8F
On time again today, the 18th door: HAWK
https://tny.lv/mUc9V
The 19th door ensures that the Russian is nothing but smoke and bang in heaven… STINGER
https://tny.lv/YYWgr
Behind the 20th door is the tank that gives the Russians sleepless nights… Leopard 2
https://tny.lv/d2X3E
For Putin, behind closed doors, the conflict had always developed into a fight against NATO. Now, however, he has emphasized for the first time that he will under no circumstances attack a NATO country in order not to risk a war against them… Is this the insight of a man who no longer has much confidence in his armed forces?
Those are the hollow words of a man that lies as soon as he opens his mouth. ‘We will not attack!’ How many times did we here that before 24.2.? It’s not even worth listening to that liar.
How could you? Wowa is a guy with a heart on his palm. These ugly Westerners fooled him, the Wise and Gullible One. Have you not listen to the newest St. Vladimir’s Russian Book of Revelations?
I am ashamed that the west is willing to give in to Russian propaganda this easily, especially the USA. Avdijivka does not need to end up like Bachmut, the Russian losses are very high and with the proper equipment Avdijivka could break Russia. But alas the west is weak and is sending Ukraine too little equipment
Well said.
Yep, we are spoiled. We are not used to losing or a few years of not have everything be perfect. To be honest this is the result of an egocentric society, no cohesion. A Dutch saying: “Lets all put our shoulders under it” does not apply in the Western world anymore. : (
I’d rather say that actually the reality slowly emerges in most of the ‘decision making brains’. There is however that problem: how to convince people for sacrificing a little while they are watching how some ‘Musk’ or other creature of a kind spends a lot, becoming fatter every day.
In my opinion, both the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the attack on Adviivka demonstrate that the military option produces very few practical results at a very high cost. The absurd conditions under which the fighting is taking place along the Dnipro demonstrate that neither side will suffer a breakdown in morale. The construction of defensive lines based on mines limits the attack possibilities
If drones and artillery are added to the obligatory mine routes, then war of movement is impossible
If the military option does not produce results, all that remains is a return to diplomacy.
I know it is a difficult solution for the Ukrainians to accept, but it should also be considered that attacks on their infrastructure and deprivations on the population would be stopped
Not stopped. At best, just a little break, until Russians are ready to attack again, and this time they won’t make the same mistakes.
The only way to avoid a future war is to beat the Russians now.
The “Russian demands” include much more territories than they currently occupy: they wantvKherson, Odessa, Kharkiv. And besides Ukraine, Putin wants to occupy at least half of Europe. So yeah, there will be another war, a much more nasty one. Putin must be stopped right now.
quit russian propaganda, youre not even alligned to your officials like Lavrov or Zakharova, its not only crimea (2014), not donbas (2022), its cherson, zaporozia, all, not only where theyre now, but even those they do not have or never had and again wanting Oddesa (always was russian, they say, Charkiv etc.). How usmart you need someone to be to fall for your false narratives?
its just so ironic russians crying NATO is increasing its members never admiting the cause that if they wouldnt be threat to others, countries wouldnt have need to join such alliances. Ill skip former Warsaw pact members and stay with SWE and FIN, who were neutral for 70 years, FIN even had to after the war they lost to USSR and voila, after 22 invasion, now 1600 more km to RU right wing…
why are you so sure about this? especially if UKR joins NATO in during this hypothetical break.
Russia won’t stop, see above. Also because that may mean that Ukraine will end up in NATO. If they accept a peace only with neutrality guarantee so that they can come back later…
Agreed that joining NATO is the only long-term solution to guarantee Ukraine’s safety.
Giving up land for peace is not a good option, but it’s not totally stupid either. It worked for Finland in 1940. And Finland at the time had no help from abroad at all.
I believe Finland is hard nut to categorize, while it worked for them (even after continuation war till 44), there is vast eastern Europe that fallen in Ribbentrop-Molotov domain and were simply swallowed by USSR, including eastern Poland, and they kept it after 45 even as invader. Then Jalta came and expanded even further the soviet dominion rule, probably West Germany would fit better as examp.
The population in the occupied parts will suffer. There will be no negotiations before 25, likely even later. Russia smells blood in the water. They won’t stop until their financial and stock reserves are depleted and they are sure that Ukraine can sustain holding the line, aka the west won’t stop supporting.
Since my English is not very good, please forgive me if I say something wrong
So could Avdiivka become the second Bakhmut (Artyemovsk)? I think so, and I’d like to get your opinion
So could Avdivka become a second Vuhledar ? I think so, an I’d like to get your opinion.
Russians troops are dying for nothing. Ukraine is their grave, because of Putin’s disillusion of grandeur.
It really depends on how you want to define a second bakhmut. Bakhmut is, was the bigger and more important city and it took something like 7 months to take it. Avdiivka is likely the better fortress, since it is on the Frontline since what, 2015? Russians also try to take it since 24.4.22 basically. The current offensive could take some months to take avdiivka, like bakhmut.
Personally I would guess that avdiivka is the minimum goal before the Russian elections during this winter. I wouldn’t bet right now if that will work or not. Russia will throw in what they got, the question is how much Ukraine is willing to invest in the defense.
In my opinion (in view of a peace agreement) Avdiivka serves for internal Russian propaganda (securing Donetsk) to hide the substantial failure in the ongoing war
In view of a peace agreement? Not befor 25, more like in 27 the earliest. Russia must be out of financial and military reserves and absolutely sure that Ukraine can sustain holding the line.
Putin needs to show at least some result in the war before the elections. Words about the “security” of Donetsk can become a trump card in Putin’s election campaign. Believe it or not, even the quilted jackets are beginning to doubt the necessity of this war. Ukraine has shown that it will not elect a new president under military conditions.
This is an obvious answer to Putin “is it possible to install a new leader in Kyiv and end the war like this”
No need to send NATO troops, just give Ukraine all the weapons they need and they will crush Russia.
yeah, 350k casualties with appx 20 times smaller opponent, 150 km from its borders and NATO have not even arrived. Could aspire for joke of the century.
Hey Simon, arent you tired of the BS man? You, sanes, Zhorik are regular in this section. I think so youre Moscow employees.
Its so obvious youre not grounded in reality that is sad (and funny as well) reading what you guys comment. There is no scenario you can crush Nato (maybe if it falls apart like USSR, that is unlikely, but at least its your chance).
Keep blablabling Vatnik, 2 years already
Hey Vatnik, your snowballing effect is consolidating 15km2 in Avdiivka for 3rd month and at estimated 15k losses and 300 equipment. I know every battle is different, wonder how much additional 100k km2 would cost. But hey, whos counting expendable orcs for the goal, I know who doesnt…This year Bakhmut, next year Avdiivka, whats next, Kupyansk? Thats snowballing too very quickly…
The estate (conquest) of Avdiivka passes from the control of Berdychi. If Ukraine loses it the logistics become extremely complex.