Invasion Day 648 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 3rd December 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Today’s summary is normally released on Saturday, but due to limited time on my side over the weekend, it was pushed to Sunday.
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Tanks of 63rd Mechanized Brigade assault Russian positions in the direction of Dibrova. The result of unknown at this moment. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Serebryansky forest
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian forces advanced towards Mayorsk and reached the edge of the settlment. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Stepove, Avdiivka, Sieverne, Pervomaiske
Avdiivka City
includes the city of Avdiivka
- Fighting continues in Promka area.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian troops flanked Ukrainian positions from the south and raised its flag on the western edge of Marinka. Ukrainian defenders remain in control over a small portion of the settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Novomykhailvka, Staromayorske
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Recently geolocated footage revealed that Russian forces are in control of Myrne settlement, north-west of Polohy. The area of control has been adjusted. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Robotyne, Novopokrovka
Left Bank Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka
- Ukrainian marines continue to hold positions on the left bank of Dnipro river. Fighting continues.
Due to ongoing raids in the area between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, Left Bank Front has been introduced and Kalanchak Front retired.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
I bet that Russia’s behind the recent tensions between Venezuela and Guyana (the conflict was frozen for 100 years, how come it exploded right now?). Russia saw that the Hamas attack diverted a lot of western attention away from Ukraine and intensified “war fatigue” and now wants to cause another war for its own gain. Additionally they would destroy Guyanese competition on the oil markets
and yes of course 120% of Venezuelans voted in favour of a war while the country is an economic disaster. I suppose Venezuela will have to defend itself from US imperialism by invading its small neighbour, where have we seen that before. “Ruski Mir” blesses another continent
do not make a fantasy monster from RUssia or Putin. It’s counterproductive (just like fantasies about Puting the Master of Universe Born in hidden KGB labs.
Did they encourage such behaviour? Surely. Are they happy because of it? You bet! Had they had direct influence which you are implying? Doubtful. Rather ‘by example’ reinforced by local necessity of supporting regime stability.
Quite interesting long-read from WP about the Summer counter-offensive, part one is about the challenges during the preparation, and the second analyses how it actually went and why. There is also – inevitably – some propaganda, but not over the top. Part 1 – https://archive.is/wkw6n
Also, there is Phillips P. Obrien’s interesting critique of another WP article (I guess it’s part 2):
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-blame-ukraine-narrative-has-arrived
Yes, part 2. Sure, a lot of political BS flyin garound, still, there is an opinion that UAF should have ditched Bakhmut and gone all-in in the south. Supposedly that had better chances. Easier said than done I guess
well, yet an other WP hot mess presented as expertise… The blame-game, however, is as much interesting as embarrasing.
Well, it surely leaves an impression of wise American generals who came up with their awesome plan and poor Ukrainians who blew it. But hey, the concerned public needs to know who is to blame.
when i saw one of ‘retired generals’ in CNN babbling about ‘armored assault’ (around fall of Severodonetsk) in Donbas I started to worry, that guy (maybe senility factor) bravely drawn ‘arrows on the map’ while apparently never seeing an actual map of the area. Do not worry, DOD has its own breed of military morons with stars. RF has no monopoly on idiocy.
I’d say generals are on TV for entertainment. But it would be very cool to see the feed from the actual wargame conducted in Pentagon in prep for the Ukr counteroffensive with all the real maps, arrows and data models. And with viewers’ comments/voting. DoD should have done this – no doubt would be a prime-time hit show and we, the experts, would have helped to choose the best plan!
surely Mr. Musk (or smone like that) would applaud that initiative. The point is – Almighty Ones bravely entertained their ignorance regarding the local circumstances *and* their own data about the stuff they actually sent. Army never changes.
Here is the link to the fourth door. Today it’s the Bushmaster:
https://tny.lv/vqkbz
слава україне
Every day a new door… Today it’s Storm Shadow / SCALP
https://tny.lv/KjR0p
I think additional source to discussion “losses” topic:
The numbers simply dont add up here and there, if anyone has clear idea: 60k volunteers in 3rd army corp and 50k prisoners, 300k mobil. in 2022. Now claimed 420k to 450k volunteered in 2023 (wonder how many draftees, prisoners or re-enlisted), yet estimated army size is from 270k in 2022 to 450k now.
Yet we know they added 25th CAA in Kremina earlier than originally planned. and 14th (22nd?) Army Corp in Dnieper grouping. Shoigu claiming formed 9 more regiments in strategic reserve. But again, either the losses are higher and Verchuska has no clue how high or recruitment is not that high as claimed(esp if up to 100k prisoners is added to the total number).
this is Russia. Nothing have any sense. You need to use special Russian logic, history and even arithmetic.
I know about R lying, it was just stepping away a bit from general western discourse trying to find out there is decent probability that the actual losses are bit higher. WarRocks article mildly speculates that R is having force generation problem, no matter how hard trolls or Shoigu claims they have 25M men at disposal, they dont. Not even in theory and it seem it even much less, several times.
it’s not just ‘lying’ – that simplification is actually doing more harm than good. They live in completely different realities (plural is important). From the Western type of mirroring delusions if you want to understand the ‘Russian World’ you need to take a clinical position.
I have used term Vranyo already, and mentality, i have some idea, but text is limited and as simplification that works well is lying, with imperialism and revanshism. State of illusion i dont need to operate with, because logical arguments wont work (on them). Its matter of belief not facts. Hence tried to stick with sum of imperfect numbers.
I’d stress that there is no ‘lack of logic’ but different one.
There is the initial force (~200k). If you add up all the numbers, there were officially about 1 million Russian men sent to Ukraine.
So, the estimates of around 500k Russian casualties are at least consistent with this official number and the actual size of the Russian army in Ukraine.
that exactly the point hidden in the figures ( 400k and more), then the extrapolation to UAF losses varies from 2:1 from conservative, to 3:1 in optimistic scenario. Its clear that russian populiation or army should rebel, otherwise in long term does not go in favor to UAF (i mean if input does not change). Russia may run out of stocks, still be able to run positional defensive war for decades.
Don´t fall for the decades thing. Russia will have to mobilize again, sooner or later, stocks will run down and the the rest of Russian wealth will also run down, with the later being likely the most dangerous part, because it will eat its way to every Russian. The consquences of this will pile up and up and up. We don´t know when Russia will crack, but it already did once this year.
I don´t know a single modern conflict that stayed hot for more than a decade. Western stocks have allready run down to the point were it doesn´t want to give much more other than in the air force part. 24 will likely be the low point in this metric for Ukraine. Ukraine has no wealth problem as long as Europe stays and if i would have to bet who will be able to mobilize longer,… Read more »
but i doubt that this will
decidethe war.Well, id like to share the optimism, but Noelle said already, if there is will and resources poured in, then for sure Russia is nothing to compare to NATO. Problem with woke politicians and bankers is, that so far money is not floating to defense industry, its dirty, so there is lots of question marks when, how much and what. From history stand point, Ukraine will prevail.
and i know its not comparable scale to Ukraine, but Russia keeps its chips in Transnistria, Georgia, Chechnia, wouldnt like to fall for underestimation of keeping conflicts frozen. Still there is plenty variables that could tip outcome either way. Russians stopped 80km from their borders and NATO even not arrived is nice quote capturing reality, still not out of the woods yet (UA esp.)
Well, I don’t think the wokes are the problem. Judging from which politicians put on the brakes its the populists. The green party is as woke as it gets in Germany, they are massively in favor of Ukraine and therefore investing in military.
I do not know what kind of ‘wokeness’ you are seeing in e.g. Ms. LaserEyes (Greene) or from RU parrots like Tucker, Petersen etc. They are pretty average reactionaries with some local folclore added. Besides some post-stalinists’ fossils (e.g. Chomsky) actualy most of the Left is strongly pro-Ukrainian (or generally: anti-imperialists).
woke is maybe improper usage, but i tried to supplement it with “dirty” (cant remember ESG or whatever the scoring index is, that bank uses to reject loans to military industry when trying to expand), so market on its own is restricted and at mercy of state government. And so far Germany and France, big disappointment compared to possibilities and reality.
as classic wrote ‘ What is a bank robbery in comparisation to the establishing one?’ (not a precise quote)
Seems like the infighting is for real – and only one will likely remain.
Zelensky reportedly established communication channels with senior military commanders bypassing Zaluzhnyi
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/12/4/7431535/
Zaluzhnyi reportedly complained to US Secretary of Defense Austin about Ukrainian Presidential Office https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/12/4/7431543/
Real? Or a plan to get all potential issues out and handled now?
Frankly there *should* be tensions. That’s healthy. Ever read anything about how the US military worked in WW2? People are people. They squabble. This isn’t the Wagner putsch.
Whose plan? It’s a question of appreciation but I find the situation to be divisive rather than ‘healthy’.
Im not an Andrew, but i think he meant some personalities like E.J.King, Halsey, McArthur, Patton and others on US or even disputes with UK generality how to conduct war in Europe (and before in Pacific from 1942)- animosities here and there.
In brief, the problem is described as follows: politicians insist on the defence of those areas where it was possible to calmly withdraw to neighbouring positions (Bakhmut, Avdeevka). Or politicians demand an offensive where the military does not want it.
I know the point, I believe Andrew was trying to say, this is kind of normal, that politicians give targets to military and there are struggles between these two. It not only US(WW2, Iraq or last AFG war), take a look at Stalin or Hitler for that matter where there are divergent actions impacting the battlefield. Its also Korean war, Arab-IS wars, pick your poison.
17 million shells and $400 billion? Is he serious?
->(beginning in moderation)
these ‘shells and monies’ addresses the whole impact including e.g. credit lines, financial guarantees, supporting effect, old equipment granted, training etc. Not that much considering that not even half of the US personnel boot would be engages (which would propel expenses into the Space).
Where to get so many shells? How many decades would it take to produce them? Better read the WaPo article “Miscalculations…” It describes well the US response to Ukraine’s desires.
During WW1, European countries produced (at fired at each other) about 1.3 billions shells. In only 4 years.
So 17 millions is a reasonable goal, and could be reached in a few years if there is the political will, and the sense of emergency, to do so.
I know those numbers. Except here’s the problem: EU countries are not at war. And such an increase in shell production is only possible through total militarisation of the economy. Read about Germany’s economy in WWI.
Russians consider themselves at war with the European countries. It’s time for European countries to retort.
it’s a matter of will and conviction. Unfortunatelly nobody likes the bad news messengers, so until the RU rocket will fly into Berlin (cuz Vilnius of Warsaw may be not enough for Paris to wake up) there is low desire among politicians to stand before electors and say: ‘sry, there will be no new Iphones for you’.
I’d rather say that Arestovitch & his possy mixed vodka with dope in the wrong proportion again. An with the not very well timing.
Read Eisenhowers’ memoirs – that was a circus, man…
This is political reality. The president of a democratic country is always the poorest pig. Can’t please anyone, everyone wants his job, to have a say and to enforce their decisions and wishes. No matter who makes mistakes on his team, the president is always the one to blame. To be honest, I wouldn’t want to be in Zelensky’s shoes. He has to get a country through the war, keep the people happy,
end corruption, get along well with supporting countries, protect the interests of the UA, etc… No matter what mistakes Zelensky makes, but I think he makes a lot good job. Which of his predecessors would have led the country through the war like he did and represented it abroad like he did. Sometimes I even feel sorry for Zelensky for having to go through something like that…
considering the circumstances he did amazingly.
For his own and everybody else good he, however, should resign/not start in next elections after the war or when the proper time come.
He will not resign during the war; that would have a negative impact on the course of the war and the UA. But after the war he will certainly no longer want to stand for election, as he will be completely empty physically and mentally. Klitschko is positioning himself to run for the next election after the war…
Then the decisions are made in the ring *lol*
In that comment I’ve ignored the personal stuff. Z. should not be a ‘postwar’ (whatever postwar will mean) president. He was not very good before (and the bar was already quite low) and won’t be better after.
Besides – there is dangerous mechanism of self-deluding leaders, particularly if they actually have some skills in one/two areas and were somewhat succesful. It spells disaster later.
@Kay: You asked how I think this conflict will end?
Not excluding some more Minsk Xs along the way this conflict will end if:
1) Russia gives up on imperialism. (Unlikely in a foreseeable future)
2) Ukraine is in NATO. (or can deter Russia with other means for good)
The later may include fighting on until Russia is done with this hot round and UA being so strong relatively to Russia, that it can deter Russia from coming back for more.
For right now it comes down to the question if Ukraine thinks it is in a good position for the next Minsk to deter Russia there after or if it is better to fight on to make Russia weaker.
I would argue from what I see that Ukraine has to fight on until war fatigue is a real thing in Russia and its war economic has eaten up most of the accumulated fossils wealth, like the national wealth fund and some solid high interest rate debt.
I see only one condition:
This war will not end until putin lives:
I dont see any other possibility to end this. For rus to step back the only excuse and breaking point is putler death which could give them the opportunity to withdrawal.
And if Putin lives another 20 years? By then, the UA will no longer have any motivated soldiers. They’re already having problems recruiting new people. And the longer this lasts, the more people continue to leave the country. Maybe Putin’s successor is an even worse nationalist who wants the destruction of the UA more than ever.
putler is the will, some people follow him for the money and some because of same willness. that was clearly visible during prigosin uprising. regarding 20 years, this is exatcly the point if nation will be strong and against invadors then it will survive. take a look at vietnam afganistan etc. eventuaally empires had to pull back
With Putin you at least have someone in power where you know roughly what makes him tick and what to expect. He is the lesser evil. And we know that there are even more dangerous people in RU than Putin.
But maybe Navalny will escape from prison, reach Moscow, throw Putin out the window and sit in his chair.
depends how regime is stable. If enough, should be from inner circle, same nationalist hawk like Patrusev or other key area (on the other side, Chruschev made good joob eliminating Berija after Stalin died). If regime is unstable (no one will be wiser, could become sudden fall, unexpected like 1989-91), than its crystal ball guessing.
how regime is stable you could have seen during prigozin march. once putler dies, end of war will be very quick within weeks. this will be domino. unfortunattely ukraine must hold till then.
while i understand your point, Tom, Putin made effort to dismantle and integrate Wagner, thats plus for him. Then, he created 3 to 15 more PMC, like Redut etc., regardless how small, its minus for him if goverement is outsourcing its power to “private-oligarch” structures. I am unable to say if “march” can occur again or it will be different case with different conditions.I agree its more brittle
You can also see the stupidity of the West. At the beginning of the war, the oligarchs were sanctioned and their money was frozen in Western accounts in the hope that they could end the war. In reality, they have a deal with Putin, they can make as much money as they want on the premise that they never get involved in politics. So they could never have ended the war
frozen money aside (and see difference between confiscation of airplanes versus frozen estates), like anyone of you said earlier, Prigozin showed that Tzar is naked and no matter that he died after, who can now can guarantee it didnt spark ideas in Putin circle? Agree, oligarchs promised to stay out of politics, but in corrupt regime, can you rule out aliances? That could combine money and power.
This war beecomes more and more static. No sign of end. The discussions about UA reclaiming the land are pointless now. This conflict will surely become a major topic for the next US presidental election. Without further aid from US side the front will collapse.
No it won’t. The front is very well fortified and Ukraine is still receiving aid from EU countries. Russia simply plays on time and propaganda, so no surprise the front is largely static.
I doubt that it will be a major topic. No Americans dying there. It will be about internal stuff, as usual, economics, migration, blablabla.
poor thing… I cannot imagine what would be your profetic insight in 1942…
Sry mate, it’s war not TikTok.
Zelensky in a recent conversation with Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov promised to build fortifications from Donbass to western Ukraine.
what do you think about it? Is it a change of strategy?
I think it is a prudent and right decision. This war may go on for a very long time and the USA may become a problem from the 1.1.25 onwards.
The Defense of Ukraine opens every day until December 24th. a new door to the Ukrainian Advent calendar… Today we had “Challenger 2″…
https://tny.lv/DLrRK
Doors from December 1st and 2nd:
https://tny.lv/Tmxf2 – AHS Krab
https://tny.lv/z6yzh – M142 HIMARS