Invasion Day 644 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 29th November 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Russian troops advanced in the area north of Ivanivka. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Stelmakhivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Russian troops assaulted Ukrainian positions south of Berkhivske Reservoir near the railway. (source)
- The enemy claimed the capture of Khromove settlement, but there is no visual proof to verify such claims.
- The enemy launched a localized counter-attack towards Andriivka and recaptured most of the previously lost ground east of the nearby railway. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Ivanivske, Andriivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Russian forces crossed the northern railway and advanced by one treeline towards Novokalynove. (source)
- The enemy advanced through a treeline north of Stepove towards the railway. (source) (source)
- Russian troops advanced along the railway north of Stepove. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Stepove, Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, Avdiivka, Tonenke, Sieverne, Pervomaiske
Avdiivka City
includes the city of Avdiivka
- Russian forces have managed to advance and capture the majority of Promka. Ukrainian troops were seen retreating west towards Avdiivka. However, as we lack any visual proof that Russians reached the western edge, it’s still marked as contested. (source)
- 53rd Mechanized Brigade repelled a Russian attack towards Sieverne. (source)
- The footage above also reveals that the enemy was unable to hold their positions south-east of Sieverne and the defenders regained the positions at some point during the last week or two.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novomykhailivka, Prechystivka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Robotyne, Verbove
Left Bank Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka
- Ukrainian marines continue to hold positions on the left bank of Dnipro river. Fighting continues.
Due to ongoing raids in the area between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, Left Bank Front has been introduced and Kalanchak Front retired.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
No summary tonight, my apologies. I might find some time tomorrow to write one.
The battle of Marinka is slowly nearing its end. It’s a sad ending, but one day the light of freedom will shine on Marinka again
https://t.me/military_production/19971
November aggregate of MoD UA numbers (50% rule of thumb advised)
28550 Personnel 341 Tanks 538 APV 681 Artillery 66 MRLS 39 AA 2 Aircraft 0 Helicopters 508 UAV 20 Cruise Missiles 2 Ships 775 Vehicles 118 Special Equipment
Highlights: Good numbers, that is above average, across the board. New record in personnel losses beating march `23 by 4k.
P.S.: I stopped doing Oryx monthlys due to lag of informational value. The time lag between date of loss and apearance at Oryx simply is to big (2 weeks average?). Oryx numbers are great to floor overall losses, but not to guestimate none frontline gear real losses nore what happens in a certain month.
It has to be said that right now Russia is winning the propaganda war. Most discussions about Ukraine in the west are about the problems in the Ukrainian military and especially politics. Noone mentions or criticizes the astronomical Russian losses around Avdijivka – censorship of criticism in Russia and the freedom of speech in the west creates informational assymetry that is benefitial to Poccia
I wouldn’t put to much in western hype and doom cycles. In the core of things, the informational assymetry is beneficial for Ukraine since it may cause issues to be solved while Russia may just keep on throwing shit at the wall indefinitely. If the rest of the war will just be one avdiivka after the other, Ukraine will win. Even Russia can’t sustain that.
Trouble is, Russians have a lot of shit and they’re pretty good at throwing it against the wall. Throughout history, they’ve won wars through pig-headed stubbornness, not superior weapons or superior tactics.
The Trump years have taught me not to underestimate the power of stupid people acting with conviction.
Lol what? Arms support for Ukraine is dropping literally everywhere, please remind me what and how many wonder weapons ukrainians received in the last 3-4 months. There may not even be another counteroffensive as they have to focus on defence, even a potential counteroffensive is likely to end like this failed one, and without successful counteroffensive obviously there no victory, not even close.
Correct. Are the advanced NATO weapons even worth using and burning in a war of attrition and trench warfare?These weapons are excellent and actually superior in an aggressive war, but in a situation like the one currently existing in the UA, they cannot use their advantages at all and are only pointlessly destroyed by masses of ancient RU material.Unfortunately, 4 T-54s are still superior to a Le
emmm… no.
it’s not that simple. WIthout these, in fact, homeopatic amount of hardware the situation of Ukr would be much, much worse. They cannot change the outcome alone and in such a small quantities, however. 4 T-54 are not ‘superior’ to the Leo (even 1) they will be outranged, outgunned and outmaneuvered, but one drone, one mine or one lucky arty shot may wreck any tank.
Well, same holds true for Russia. Of Russia wins, Ukraine doesn’t exist anymore. That is why Ukraine will have to fight on until they believe that Russia is ready to accept the existence of Ukraine. Victory is not about 1% of land more or less, it is about forcing Russia to accept Ukraine independent existence for good, not for another 8 years.
We hear more and more often the hypothesis of Ukraine joining NATO but without foreign troops on its territory.
What is not said is that, in order to be implemented, this solution requires the signing of a peace agreement with mutual acceptance of the borders. which in turn is the precondition for the effective reconstruction of Ukraine.
“Ukraine” and “win” you don’t put in the same sentence.
In not a single scenario can Ukraine “win” something. They can’t win back 1.2m people lost on the front lines. They can’t win back 15m people who left the country. They can’t win back lost land. They can’t win back their economy. They can’t win back the trust of its people in the leadership. Nothing, nada, zero win.
Hear, Russia can’t win back the 5 million lost on the Frontline, the political influence lost in central Asia and kaukasus, the trade partners in the west, 600 billion of frozen or wasted national funds, the stocks of equipment lost, blablabla. Of course Ukraine can win it all back if Russian empire falls apart again, like it did in the 90s. Ukraine can and will win freedom, in any case.
Because there is no astronomical russian loses around Avdijvka. Only in your little thick Ukrainian head there is. Like Maxis head where Ukraine will win.
You got to be severely empty between the ears to think like most of you here think. Brain dead oxygen wasters.
Nothing will slap you harder than reality.
Still doesn’t know that Russians just lie? Or just a lying Russian repeating lies? U guys are so sad.
The mistake was to state that the war would have a turning point in the counter-offensive, which was supposed to cut the land bridge (and with the distribution of the Kerch bridge isolate the Crimea in a huge pocket).
Having given too much importance to the Leopards and ridiculed the Russians (they use old tactics: trenches) has worsened the perception of failure of the counter-offensive
OT: On 19.11.2022 half of the ukrainian grid was down. The first Russian strategic uav waves were denied. If Ukraine can protect its citizens from large scale war crimes this winter, that would be damn big after the strategic victory in the black sea. If Ukraine can protect its citizens and its trade routes, it is a functioning state during war.
Russia’s primary strategic goal and victory condition of destroying the western ukrainian State would be utterly denied, for now.
So what? It’s been known for a long time that Ukraine as a state is not gonna perish.
But if they can’t get back that territory, it means in some ways Russia did win.
with that kind of cost of winning, war lost would be a blessing.
For whom? Russia controls 18% of Ukraine and it’s unlikely to change anytime in the future.
future is dangerously unpredictable. In a month Russia may have problems with controlling 18% of its own territory. Or maybe the Aliens come out from DeSantis arse and everything will be clear. Including your activity.
Hm, yes the first round knock out failed miserably, but trying to go over 12 rounds in a strangle hold was and still is to some extend on the table. If they could have managed to cut of seaborne trade and freeze Ukraine every winter while waiting out western support… I don’t think the Kremlin gave up on its maximalist goals yet. Ukraine may have to fight another ten years…
Russia simply has too much of everything compared to Ukraine and much more than UA itself. So, based on available material and manpower, Russia can actually continue fighting for 10 years. Without ending the war early, RU may have really worn down the UA at some point.
Russia is a military hoarder that collects everything there is.
https://tny.lv/V5JMY
Yes, and therefore it is extremely important for Ukraine to be a functioning state during this war, so it can go on and fight another round. Russia will only retain the manpower advantage in the long run and has a big disadvantage in economical power and quality as long as the west stays involved. Without a stranglehold, Russia may eventually want to cool the war down.
blatant thesis… I assume the opposite. RU is more likely to run out of soldiers than to run out of material. There is a war economy in RU, where most industrial companies have switched to military production. In this case, Putin doesn’t care about economic performance, the main thing is that military equipment is being produced.
And hey, the man is 70 years old, he doesn’t care whether Russia will be on the brink of economic collapse in 20 years. All that matters to him is that he never gave up during his presidency.
definitelly. I was writing from the perspective of ‘average young Russian’ like e.g. one of my students between 17-25. While some, particularly those who does not have any opportunities anyway, may cheerish the ‘glorious events’, for the others it’s (regardless of ethical stance) yet another case of ‘Russia is a shitshow without a future nor cause’. They can ‘win’ eventually. Having –>
–> the ‘win’ as the only and problematic ‘benefit’. A trap which swallowed their ancestors.
9 years and ticking… We have to get that ‘win’ dream of the table. No easy feat to reach, I fear. That is why these strategic victories are so important. Putin hopes for US elections, we hope for his death. At least Ukraine has something to win, Russia is just cought up in its masochistic no futuring. The ‘win’ is the trap, you are absolutely right.
Lmao nice motivation for ukrainians there, “hey guys we’ll continue to send miserable deliveries, you just have to fight for 10, 20 more years, c’mon you can do this”.
Ukraine already lost no less than 90k dead, do you wanna extend this to 500k dead? And for what purpose, if counteroffensives aren’t gonna be successful either way?
so, you think that when Germans were on the Moscow suburbs and the Red Army were still in shambles, USSR should just ‘accept reality’? hint: there was no land-lease which saved their skin and enabled later victories at this point. Or maybe Poles in 1939 should quietly go into extinction with exception for those who would find the inner (or outer) germanic roots inside?
But we live in a different time. And at some point the UA simply has to ask itself whether it’s all worth it because of 15% of completely destroyed, uninhabitable land. Maybe at some point the answer will be that RU can keep Donbass if they disappear from the south and Crimea. You simply cannot continue for 10 years in the current situation.
this does not change the equation. this is a genocidal war, And ‘a war with the West’ (even if ‘the West’ did not notice much). Expect next phase in a few years or challenge to Art. 5. Depends on the lunar phase and Patrushew’s PMS.
Article 5 doesn’t tell me anything… What does it say?
If by next phase you mean the attack on another (European) country, you might even be right that that is in the minds of the RU elite. But I don’t think they’ll actually do it. The RU army is too weak and decimated for that after all the depressed years in the UA.
Art 5. is ‘one for all, all for one’ NATO’s clause. However, it does not implicate obligation to direct military action, but ‘help with any means possible and deem necessary’ (literary from: ‘we will pray for you’, to the nuclear strike, wording is intentionally murky there).
Who will healthy brain would decide 22 Feb that invasion on Ukr. is the best course of action for RF?
At some point you will have to decide if Russian dib is to strong for UA and the west or not (argument of above). In any case, it can be back to haunt Ukraine after another Minsk or any other peace and it will, because it is about destroying Ukraine.
18%. Ehm, why would Russia disappear from any piece of land other than by military means? It won’t.
Ukrainians have no other choice because Russia wants to destroy Ukraine and it will continue with it in any case. Ukrainians now that, and that’s why they will continue as long as they think that this will be better than waiting till Russia comes back for more again. This is about genociding Ukraine, nothing else. We just support them against this as long as it takes and how they see fit.
You can also negotiate with Russia as long as the bargaining chips are right. According to what you said, the Russians would never leave again because they are simply militarily superior and will remain so. Now that Russia has increased its army by 150,000 soldiers, the chances of defeating Russia through military means have become even smaller.
Russian baseline of ‘negotiations’ is still a unconditional and total surrender. Just like in Feb. They may feel that is is not reacheable now, or even in a 2 years (regardless of US elections) but it’s still and will be as long as putinism is in place on the agenda.
You may ‘negotiate’ with putinist RF as much as with the Hamas, their buddies afterall. GL!
I would say as long as Russian imperialism exist. @kay Of course UA can negotiate with Russia, just like it did during Minsk. But Russia will never ever give back a single piece of Ukrainian land thru negotiations as long as it goes by its imperialism and, or doesn’t fall apart. And it will always come back for more for Ukraine is a core part of the Russian empire. You may actually argue that
Controlling Ukraine constitutes the empire. The question for Ukraine is if negotiations will help it becoming free or if it will make things worse thru giving Russia time to reconstitution for the next hot round.
It depends on whether UA becomes a NATO member or receives security guarantees. Then RU will think twice about invading Ukraine again because then there will inevitably be a confrontation with NATO troops. This would also be the case with a security guarantee. But for that to happen, RU has to leave the country first. There aren’t many options other than negotiation.
There you go. Another reason why Russia will not leave UA. Why would it, if that opens doors to NATO? The same may be true for a truce. That just may bring NATO as well, as the German precedence shows. It may sign a truce if neutrality is guaranteed, so it can come back later. So here is the ukrainian dilemma, sign a truce with neutrality and guaranteed next round in x years or keep… Read more »
What do you think an end to the conflict looks like? With the premise that UA can’t last 10 years like it is now.
The course of the war next year depends on how much the NATO countries are willing to deliver. The camps are still full because there is an opinion that you have to defend yourself? But against whom…? I don’t see any country attacking us in the next few years.
The USA stores over 300 armored vehicles in Europe, which are only there to protect themselves and Europe in the event of an attack. At least half of this could be released for the UA. Almost all countries have supplied less than 20% of their own equipment to the UA. I wonder why these states are so afraid of an attack and therefore don’t hand over the material.
If each supporting state had given 30-40% of its equipment to Ukraine, the UA forces might have already liberated Melitopol and reached Crimea. The donor countries would still not lose their defense capability if one takes into account the probability of a possible war, which is currently almost non-existent.
Russians were military superior in every domain at the start, but not anymore. Ukraine now has better infantery, better special forces,better armor, better drones, better artillery. Planes/helicopters are the only part of the russian army still superior to Ukraine. And that may change next year.
But, of course, Putin thinks he still has a Trump card. Litterally.
The front around Bakhmut seems to be collapsing for some reason, I guess a lot of units were sent to the Avdiivka area recently. Ukraine has to consider moving some troops out of Avdiivka unless they can counter on the southern flank and maybe try and capture some territory there.
Collapsing…? Come on, the last and only collapse we saw was a year ago near kharkiw.
AFAIK, no troup from Bakhmut were sent to Avdivka. Only troops from the southern front (31st, 47th, 116th mech brigades)
Speaking of a collapse is excessive but as I wrote on Oct. 5 the initiative has shifted to Russia. Since that date, Russia has gained 59 km2 vs 13 km2 for Ukraine.
Addendum: those figures are for the whole country
Yeh, collapse was the wrong word to use I meant initiative. Ukrain was really only pushing in the southern direction, whereas the Russians are trying to gain ground everywhere as they are desperate.
According to NATO, 300,000 Russian soldiers were killed in this war… I don’t really believe in that high number, but if that’s actually the case, then I’ll wait for the Russian soldiers to start a big mutiny.
The commanders can’t shoot all the men in their unit… But that’s probably still not enough until the Russians realize how pointless this war is.
There are between 70,000 and 120,000 dead and the rest wounded…
NATO spoke of deaths… But I don’t believe in this high number either
no one really knows (and maybe we will never know) about late loses.
There is also a concept of human potential loses, that is inflicted on UKR, too obviously, the difference is that RU citizens have much less and least favourable options of compensating. (Though that’s a matter for a long discussion).
About 150 000 dead Russians. Maybe a bit more. But unlikely 300 000.
The Russian zombies will just keep coming as most of them are being fed lies about the smo going well and Ukraine collapsing in a few months. In regards to the number of KIA it could be around 300k if you count all the PMC, contract soliders, foreigners and local DNR/LNR terrorists. I saw a figure of around 70k killed on Meduza a few months ago but that only included the regular army.
Stoltenberg used that number in a speech, basically taking the MoD UA number. It’s not like it is an official NATO estimate. Stoltenberg is the political leader of NATO and as such he gives political speeches. The 50% rule of thumb for all MoD UA numbers is pretty solid. That is likely still a little to high for personnel losses and a little to low for tanks, but… You take what I get.
NATO put the numbers into perspective again today. There are not 300,000 dead soldiers, but so many who are unable to fight. This also includes injured people who can no longer return to the front.
this is called ‘unrecoverable losses’ there are also ‘late losses’ (everybody forget about it, at least in public, guys dying in distance from the front because of bad/non delivered or faulty med aid) and ‘hidden losses’ (e.g. soldiers unable to fight however still counted as ‘able bodies’, that is going from not registered MIAs, AWOLs up to mentally broken guys in trenches).