Invasion Day 616 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 1st November 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Russian forces were targeting Ukrainian positions at a crossroad north-east of Synkivka, revealing Ukrainian troops regained the previously lost positions. (source)
- The enemy captured more ground north-west of Ivanivka settlement (source)
- Ukrainian forces ambushed a Russian convoy moving through occupied Raihorodka towards Nadiya, destroying several vehicles. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka, Ivanivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian troops attacked Russian positions north-east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka. It seems the enemy repulsed the attack. (source)
- Russian forces advanced alongside Berkhivsky Reservoir, and were stopped by Ukrainian 21st Motorized Battalion. (source)
- Russian drone targeted Ukrainian troops north of Zelenopillya, revealing Ukrainian forces managed to cross the railway at another place. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Pivdene
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Ukrainian forces launched a counter-attack north-east of Krasnohorivka, crossed a railway and reached the nearby road. (source)
- Russian forces reached a treeline east of the railway near the ash dump. Heavy fighting is ongoing. (source)
- Ukrainian drone filmed dead Russian soldiers on the southern part of the ash dump, signaling that Ukrainian forces lost the control over it. (source)
- The enemy reached a sand quarry north-east of Vodyane. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Sieverne, Pervomaiske
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- The invasion forces attempted to break through Ukrainian lines south of Krasnohorivka, but didn’t achieve success. (source)
- Russian forces continue to mount attacks towards Novomykhailivka, and almost reached the outskirts from the south-east. (source)
- The enemy also advanced and nearly reached a pumping station south of Novomykhailivka. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reproted.
Left Bank Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka
- Russian artillery shelled Ukrainian positions south of Antonovskiy Bridge, showing Ukrainian progress in the area. (source)
- Ukrainian defenders set up positions at a railway bridge over Verkhnya Konka river. (source)
- Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Krynky and north of Pidstepne.
Due to ongoing raids in the area between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, Left Bank Front has been introduced and Kalanchak Front retired.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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The forum is closed, for good?
Some highlights from Oryx and MoD UA russian loss stats:
Oryx:
Helis 26 (destroyed 11 and damaged 15)
MoD UA:
Helis 8 (interestingly conservative, compare above)
Tanks 521 (new monthly record)
APVs 843 (third highest)
Personnal 22920 (2nd highest)
All in all a very ugly month for Russia.
For those none believers in MoD UA numbers:
Oryx shows visually (mostly from UA sources) confirmed losses and those for frontline gear (Tanks and APVs) are consistently at around 50% of the UA numbers for tanks and APVs. MoD UA numbers are done by adding up by frontline reports. The Helicopter example of this month shows, that MoD UA is committed to release solid numbers, as far as possible.
Oryx thinks its numbers underestimate real losses by about 20% for frontline gear and a lot more for none frontline gear. That would put the ratio from above at about 60% for frontline gear.
Yes, feel free to join our Discrod server.
The Russians’ mobilization problem appears to be greater than expected. Yesterday there was a report that the authorities are now carrying out raids on mosques in order to then forcibly send the men to the front. Otherwise there will be hefty penalties. However, there are now increasing protests by many Russian migrants because they no longer want to be used as cannon fodder.
Finally, more and more reports are trickling out about the massive Russian attacks in Ukraine.
The solution is either to declare martial law or to start bringing people from the streets to the front in the main cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg…). Putin wants to avoid both scenarios until the election.
You mean, the videos published by Russians where they claim it happens in Ukraine ? Russians are so honest, how could someone imagine those video are fake, or simple showing what happens in fact in Russia ?
My friends in Ukraine are telling me this is regularly happening. No need for any propaganda.
I can also confirm this. A relative of mine (an ethnic Hungarian of Ukraine) was taken to the army that way from the streets of Bereghove (Beregszász) against his will.
I would say that Russian citizens are slowly realizing what is actually happening in the UKR. There is not just war, as RU is waging elsewhere in the world, but also a mass death of its own people on behalf of Putin.
Well, my comment from yesterday didn’t age well. Zaluzhnyi ended the counteroffensive officially by stating, or admitting, that the war has turned into positional warfare, if not a stalemate. I keep being impressed by how openly UA manages this war, underpinned by e.g. a 50% quote between their Russian loss numbers and oryx for Frontline gear.
Standoff is only useful for UA if Russia sees it the same way. But it doesn’t look like that at all. Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a one-sided stalemate. And trench warfare would be exactly what Putin wanted because it would allow him to gain time.
In both cases the UKR gained nothing.
The aim should be to avoid trench warfare at all costs.
“Stalemate describes a condition in war in which neither side can change the front lines dramatically no matter how hard it tries.”
If Russia tries and fails, it is still a stalemate, at least for now. What you refer to, “standoff”, is likely the idea of a frozen conflict?
We are in positional warfare or “trench warfare” since a year now. I would call that a fact.
But I still see no ground for Russia to think that time is on its side. That may be true concerning the war in Ukraine if western support falters, which i still would not bet on. It is definitly not true concerning the big picture. Every month this goes on makes Russia weaker.
In a trench war, both warring parties are static. You stay on a front line for a longer period of time. And fight each other out of their positions. Trench warfare is characterized by little motorized technology, so that the troops can only move forward on foot.
In the UA this is not the case because there is always one side that attacks and is motorized.
What we currently see are normal defense lines, but they have nothing to do with trench warfare.
The UKR in particular prevents trench warfare by using small, self-sufficient, mobile units.
“Trench warfare is a type of land warfare using occupied lines largely comprising military trenches, in which combatants are well-protected from the enemy’s small arms fire and are substantially sheltered from artillery.”
If you say it has nothing to do with that, fine.
Zaluznyi also stressed the needs to break the positional warfare situation: especially specialized drones, EW production and means for mine clearing in depth.
Personally I do not believe in Wunderwaffen. Germany didn’t lose WW1 because of tanks, but because it couldn’t keep up with the axis, especially with the USA added, economically and socially. If the west steps up or down its game or the will to bare the burden on either side falters, that will decide the war. Not the invention of some more weapons.