October 25, 2023

Invasion Day 609 – Summary

The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 25th October 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time). Sloboda Front includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of: Siverskyi Donets overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut…

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The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 25th October 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

  • The enemy advanced by a one treeline north-west of Ivanivka. (source)
  • Ukrainian artillery targeted Russian positions north of the same settlement, revealing another Russian advance in the area. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Ivanivka, Nadiya

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Makiivka

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Ukrainian troops cleared the treeline along a railway north of Klishchiivka. (source)
  • Ukrainian forces advanced beyond Andriivka towards Odradivka. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Bohdanivka, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

  • The invasion forces crossed the railway north of Krasnohorivka and attempted to advance towards Keramik. (source)
  • Ukrainian forces launched a localized counter-attack and recaptured previously lost positions in the area of a railway north-east of Stepove. (source)
  • Russian forces raised its flag in the northern part of the ash dump. The enemy seems now be in control of at least half the ash dump. (source)
  • The enemy attempted to advance towards Pervomaiske from the southeastern direction. The attack was caught in time and repelled by 59th Motorized Brigade. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Avdiivka, Stepove, Tonenke, Sieverne

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Novoukrainka, Staromaiorske

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • Ukrainian troops advanced by a one treeline west of Robotyne. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Verbove

Left Bank Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka

  • Russian reconnaissance group landed on the island north-west of Nova Kakhovka, and was met with artillery fire. (source)
  • Ukrainian forces crossed Dnipro river and landed north of Pidstepne. It’s the third successful landing of Ukrainian troops in a short time. (source)

Due to ongoing raids in the area between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, Left Bank Front has been introduced and Kalanchak Front retired.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Mentioned Units |

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Our unique map showing units, operational sectors and defense lines

42 Comments
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Triglav

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1719685564603978123
Over 1 million artillery shells have been shipped to Russia from North Korea according to South Korea. The fact noone [in the western media sphere] is reporting about this is frustrating

Last edited 8 months ago by Triglav
Triglav

This report goes hand in hand with the developments above, which is going to be a major handicap for Ukraine: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20231101-russia-shells-more-than-100-ukrainian-settlements-in-24-hours

Last edited 8 months ago by Triglav
Patrick

One of Russia’s worst commanders, Oleg Makarevich, was sacked and replaced by Mikhail Teplinsky who recently made the headlines for disclosing the number of airborne troops wounded since Feb. 2022. Teplinsky’s task is to get rid of the dangerous Ukrainian bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro river.

Patrick

After capturing 9 settlements in June, 1 in July, 2 in August and 2 in September, the Ukrainians did not seize any new settlement in October. Officially, the c-offensive is not over.

Max Beckhaus

I think no offensive is ever called over officially…

Triglav

I think it’s pretty clear to anyone that territorial concessions are a no go. As long as Russia demands these, I’m afraid there will be no end in sight for the war

Max Beckhaus

Not sure who it is referring to. If Russia wants to negotiate, go ask Ukraine if it feels like negotiating with someone breaking any contract and killing, raping, destroying. Good luck with that. The West will watch Russia go down hill gladly, for a nickel and a dime.

Strahil

Ukraine made peace negotiations illegal. So I am not sure what you are referring too.

All I am saying Ukraine can’t win militarily anything. But let’s say the win every territory back.

Than what? Country in ruins can’t recover in the next 100 years. And believe me the west won’t help you. They will gain control of your industrial capacity and exploit you.

Max Beckhaus

Ukraine is being attacked, it has the right to fight as long as it wishes until Russia leaves Ukraine. That is Ukraines decision. Ukraine is already part of the west and will be part of the EU. It will have every chance to prosperity and it will. Just like every other country in the West, including ex Sovjet states lie the Baltics. Reconstruction will be financed by Russian assets and the west.

Max Beckhaus

And it is already reconstructed now with western help. West Germany was bombed to complete ashes and it was fine within 10 years, and so will be Ukraine.

Strahil

No they won’t be financed by the west nor by Russian assets. You have a wet dream about it but no. Brother, Germans in the 80s were coming to work in Bulgaria because in Germany was so great.

Your vision is the very best scenario that can happen, so good that it is nearly impossible.

Overall I can say US wins again puting you two to fight turning you dept slaves.

Max Beckhaus

Poland and the Baltics are not part of the West? I talked about west Germany, if you can read. And no west German went to Bulgaria to work in the 80s, I can assure you of that. You misunderstand a basic concept of being part of the west, it is not race, it is believe in democracy and freedom that defines being western. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Poland, the Baltics are all part of the… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

And for that matter, Romania and Bulgaria are as well. Being part of the EU and NATO is pretty much as western as you can get. Ukraine decided to be part of the west, and that is why the west supports Ukraine, and the ukrainian believe in democracy and freedom is the exact reason why Russia wants to destroy Ukraine. You say it won’t happen? It already happened. Ca. 100 billion dollars a year…

Kay

They still have enough material, but the game changer will be manpower. If Russia gets another 100,000 to the front, I see black for the UKR.
The decisive factor is certainly how willing the Russians are to continue to be shot for a senseless dirty war. At some point the propaganda there will reach its limits.

Patrick

The motivation / willingness to fight is indeed a key factor. Currently, I don’t see any signs that the Russians or Ukrainians are less willing, demoralized, etc. An increase in voluntary surrenders could signal psychological cracks but for now the number of soldiers who turn themselves in on both sides seems to be low.

Kay

I think they summed it up very well. In some cases, however, it is too critical of the AFU armed forces. The question is whether the Russians are using the last soldiers available for their current offensive in Avdiivka or whether they still have enough reserves in reserve.
Because that’s probably the only way to push the Russians back at the moment.

Coerenza

My fear is that the support of the population of the USA and Western Europe (Eastern Europe hates Russia), favor of Ukraine could decline (in Italy it seems to me that this is already happening)

I wish Ukraine to win the war within a year, but if it doesn’t happen I think the prospect of diplomatic negotiations will become mandatory.

Max Beckhaus

It could if something crazy happens in Moscow… The new polish government will support Ukraine just as strongly with better ties to the rest of the EU.
I don’t know about Italy, but in Germany the political class is completely behind Ukraine but the AFD, which is still a total outcast. European support won’t falter because it is our security. U. will have to outlast Russia economical/political.

Max Beckhaus

Since we have a largely static Frontline for a year now, the question for what may be realistic prerequisites for a truce, frozen conflict arises.
Stephen Kotkin, likely one of the greater thinkers of our time and a historian specialized in Russia thinks that the only thing that would force Putin into a truce is fear of losing power.

Last edited 8 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

That would mean he won’t blink until he believes that the West will stay for as long as it takes and Russia starts cracking underneath him so that he gets scared enough.

san4es

The world is entering turbulence mode. There are simply not enough resources for all theatres of war. The US can no longer fight multiple simultaneous wars or proxy wars.

Max Beckhaus

No san4es, the US can do it’s part in Ukraine, back Israel and defend Taiwan right now and here. And don’t even get me started on what happens if the whole west switches to a war mode like Russia or total war like Ukraine. The West wasn’t prepared for a large land war and never had much AD, I give you that, but underestimating US capabilities is… US will to support is another thing.

san4es

Before our eyes, shipments of shells destined for Ukraine are being sent to Israel. Economic statistics do not signal a significant increase in the production of the US military-industrial complex. And already the second year of the war is coming to an end. The question is not the number of dollars that the United States can print, but the real resources that can be sent to the front.

Max Beckhaus

Well it doesn’t show, because it is so cheap and easy for the USA. The costs for Ukraine military support is what, 3% of defense spending? And the us economy obviously doesn’t show an increase of shell production to 1 million, those are peanuts. The real resources are obviously enough to hold the Frontline, aren’t they?

san4es

Bloomberg writes that the EU’s plan to double shell production is only 30 per cent complete. Some countries are asking for a postponement

Max Beckhaus

8 Billion euros, for the USA? For the whole of Europe? Peanuts. Anyways, I give you that the west wasn’t prepared for this kind of war and Europe will be lame as usual. I also stated that it will likely be difficult to come by 2 million shells in 24. That will change in 25 in any case. I am extremely confident, that Ukraine will be able to hold the line with the resources available.

Max Beckhaus

Adding Ukraine to his picture, he repeats since a very long time, that Ukraine can not win the war, that is march to Moscow, but it can win the peace, that is the EU and prosperity. But it needs to force Russia into a truce and that does not depend on where the Frontline is, see above.

Kay

The West itself is not waging wars and there is currently no risk that the West will be attacked. That’s why these countries won’t go into war mode. We are just supporters of warring parties. As soon as it appears hopeless, the West will limit or completely stop material support, then there is only the diplomatic route.

Kay

And that depends on how motivated the enemy warring party is to negotiate. Russia is a tough nut to crack, but it is not entirely out of the question that they are willing to negotiate. Ultimately, it is also about the future of Russia.
Negotiating with Hamas is easier because you can lure them out of the reserve with money.

Kay

The problem here is that Israel wants to incapacitate Hamas and is ready for anything to do so. Israel is in the difficult situation of being trapped between enemies and essentially never really having peace as long as the Islamic world is against Israel.

Kay

I don’t have a crystal ball, but my guess about the upcoming offensive towards Oleshky could be correct. I continue to believe that this city must be liberated to protect Kherson. Despite the destroyed Antonivka Bridge. Another advantage of a conquest is that the UA can establish a second bridgehead and thus move heavy equipment from the western to the eastern side of the Dnieper.

Kay

And in the east the RUS appear to be carrying out more offensive actions again. Probably to disperse UA forces and thus weaken defended UA areas.
However, in the south near Robotyne the front is frozen. The conquest of Tokmak will be off the table for now because the UA is no longer making any progress in this area.

Max Beckhaus

I am sceptical. Russia just burns an army sized force in the east. They must be confident that they have enough forces to hold the line elsewhere, which may be a short term misjudgements. Estonia estimates they have 4 million shells left, they are supposed to produce 2 and get some from North Korea. So they could use about 12k per day another 2 years and they can mobilize after Putin’s election.

Max Beckhaus

Factor in what we learned this year about the difficulty of advancing. At some point you just get to far away from your artillery cover and opening up a bridgehead with heavy gear doesn’t seem a reasonable prospect to me. I doubt that you can take and hold Oleshy with infantry. Russia could throw that next army sized attack at it in half a year.

Last edited 8 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

I still think we will have to accept a largely static Frontline for a long time. I think Ukraine will have to live with something like 6000 shells a day for a while and even those may get hard to come by next year.

Kay

On the right bank of the Dnieper near Kherson there are fewer RU than elsewhere.The entire right bank up to Krynky is neutral as there are no units on site.I think it is currently difficult to build positions there until the flood damage is repaired.But the UA should take advantage of that.The prob for the UKR will be that it has too few troops in this area due to the ongoing fighting in the east

Pikująca Szozda

I think you meant the left bank? When you’re standing in a river facing downstream, the “right bank” is on your right.

The problem for Ukraine is that it’s very difficult for them to move troops and gear into that area, but it’s very easy for the Russians. The Russians know this, and this is why the left bank is so lightly defended.

Kay

Left Bank, you’re right. I looked up and it was on the right bank

Last edited 8 months ago by Kay
Kay

A bridgehead to the right of the Denpr is the only way to take the area. Whoever has both bridgeheads more or less controls the area. If UKR manages to capture the M14 & M17, then the RUS in Oleshky will be cut off from supplies. These two main routes have to be the goal first and then it’s Oleshky’s turn.

Max Beckhaus

Oh, I can see how that may be possible right now, but I am sceptical about the long term prospect of a move like this. May be I am wrong and Oleshky can be defended with minimum heavy gear against heavy attacks.

Triglav

This. I just don’t think Russia has a manpower or hardware shortage given the high losses they can sustain. Also I think that any large scale Dnieper crossings are impossible without proper air support (which Russia has and Ukraine at least for now doesn’t)