Invasion Day 602 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 18th October 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Ukrainian defenders repelled a Russian attack towards Ivanivka, destroying at least one tank. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Ivanivka, Kyslivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian forces were spotted operating alongside the railway just north of Kurdyumivka. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Klishchiivka
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade repulsed a Russian attack towards Novomykhailivka from the southern direction. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Novomykhailivka, Novomaiorske
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Russian forces launched a localized counter-attack and pushed Ukrainian troops away from the settlement of Verbove. Unfortunately, they also captured a few Ukrainian soldiers during the attack. (source)
- Ukrainian Army, during the special operation under the command of Special Operations Forces, hit an airfield near the occupied Berdyansk. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Mala Tokmachka
Kalanchak Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- Ukrainian forces conducted a raid in the area of Antonivsky Railway bridge. (source)
- Video supposedly showing a Ukrainian reconnaissance group entering the outskirts of Poima also appeared. (source)
- Russian sources claimed a much bigger operation is under way north-east of Oleshky, including the landing of elements of Ukrainian Marines. As of the writing of this summary, there is no proof that any large Ukrainian element landed there. Ukrainian forces are very likely testing Russian defenses in the area.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
What the hell? Those numbers are INSANE: https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2023/10/20/the-total-combat-losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-2022-to-20-10-2023/
Kriegsforscher, a very solid source, says that 19.10.23 will go down in history, Avdiivka again.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/10/looking-beyond-the-offensive-in-ukraine/
well, mix of positive/negative topics depending where you stand: production, politics, sustainability including belief that current southern offensive culminated already or might in next two weeks due to weather. You should give a call to Scholz and shake his tree…wink wink
Scholz knows he shouldn’t pick up the phone when I call, he won’t dare, coward. Other than that I have to admit that we are punching our weight in international comparison. The Taurus thing a bit unfair. Now one sent a 500 km capability yet, let alone bridge killers… When the french and the Brits send the 500 km scalps or USA at least the 300 km atacms… Why don’t you call Congress? 😁
Cause i´m not American, but if you call, ill call too as camaraderie gesture. I know both Biden and Scholz administrations playing with the escalation/deescalation card and them,not me, have the responsibility for any mistake made, still gives in principle question if in 1st SEP 1939 Allies had other options deescalate about nation that openly threatens you and calls you enemy and real R options.
I think they understood that Russia basically declared war on us, our way of life. They play it safe, because they are US/German leaders, not Ukrainian, and they believe we win, if we want to. Considering the geopolitical dynamics, i think they are showing to much weakness. The time for minimizing risks, costs, or anything unimportant is over. We need to deter madness now, and i think the
middle east is waking us up some more.
P.S.: Sorry Jerome! Over and out.
Although the offensive is going poorly, those numbers are 100% bullshit. I mean really? The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine as a source? You might as well use North Korean government-published obesity numbers.
If one considers the Russian losses against their existing resources, it is obvious that the numbers are more or less correct. According to these figures, Russia lost 30% of its military equipment and vehicles. That is not much. The figures for Russia’s total equipment are presented on various pages.
If UA were to lie to portray itself positively, the destruction numbers would be much higher.
it offers upper limit, Oryx as bottom limit, you can remove 30% from ministry numbers and add 30% to Oryx nr and you get somewhat estimated baseline
It actually also highly depends on the gear Typ. MoD releases are very good to get a feeling for how hot the Frontline was the day before. A rule of thumb would rather be around 50% for frontline gear, tanks, apvs. Oryx numbers have a great lag in time, but validate MoD Frontline gear estimations pretty well. Considering any other gear Typ, the picture is more murky. MoD numbers were terrible
concerning planes at the start of the war but got much better. Artillery and AD change a lot with oryx due to static frontlines and pictures are a lot less likely. I would also guess that MoD numbers are weaker here, since they will have worse information as well and will overestimate more likely. 30% may be more like it there.
Weather is nice around Kherson, making sense that they sent hundred of soldiers south of Dniepr to establish a bridgehead and see if Russia is reacting or not.
I guess if they react, they’ll have to withdraw some troops from others fronts.. and if they don’t, Ukrainian may have an opportunity to use the west equipment to deploy a bridge to do “another quick offensive” to liberate a big chunk of
Kherson territory.
I notice also that some of Israeli politicians are angry after Russia that they show support to “Palestinian cause” (but didn’t really “mourn officialy” the terrorist attack early this month). And that they “boldly” said they will help Ukrainian against Russia (after they done with their own war, which probably last at least until Summer 2024).
Maybe it won’t be followed by
real action in 2024. But it clearly show that Israeli is slowly moving towards “Neutral (or intelligence/humanitarian) support only” to “Military Ukrainian support”.
My fear is only that the conflicts are growing more and more (maybe not World War 3 but war is spreading) and involving more countries each day. Lets not forget Taïwan that is another sensitive area that could blow up anytime.
Russian support for Palestinians is calculated. Iran is Hamas’ largest donor and most important ally. And since Russia relies on Iranian drone supplies, they don’t want to upset Iran. However, I don’t see any direct Russian involvement for Hamas. Israel is an important partner for Russia in terms of industry and research.
There is a video of a someone speaking Russian who was leading Hamas fighters as they breached the wall the first day. So, there may be a direct involvement of Russia/ Wagner PMC.
It may be that there are individual groups in Russia that provide military support to Hamas. There are many Russian soldiers in Syria, and one or two of them have probably found their way to Gaza in the hope of being able to play war. But officially the Russian state and politicians are more interested in working with Israel than with the Palestinians.
Right now it wouldn’t be accepted as most Ukrainian population is brainwashed by the idea of fighting until 1991 borders, i.e. until the end.
But I suppose in 1-2 years of these miserable advances and huge losses, ukrainians will accept anything. People are getting poorer because of regressing economy, adult men can’t leave the country for 20 months now.
The question is, will there even be a choice for ukrainians. Certainly I don’t see either NATO or EU welcoming the country in case some territory stays occupied, especially when it’s not just Crimea/LDPR but whole damn South too. Which means only 2 options exist, an endless meatgrinder or a buffer zone without future.
The U economy is rebounding minus x million refugees, many of which likely won’t come back. Neutrality is completely of the table and will never happen. Some form of EU membership will come and we will see how NATO will play. In any case, Ukraine is an will be part of the west. Once this over, the rest of Ukraine has all the chances to become the next west Germany or south Korea. It will… Read more »
do you mean pushed by knife put to the throat by Russians? Just saying how the brainwashing could look also like. It was only Crimea in 2014,DPR proxy, then DPR,LPR annex in FEB 2022, then annex Zap,KH in SEP 2022. Just saying how the negotiation looks like, not saying about hospitals, Buca or any other attrocities. Is any agreement, going to be cancelled by Putin like he did anytime, worth it?
Question for those living in Russia.
PREMISE
If in X months Vladimir Putin announce a “goodwill gesture” and withdraw all Russian troops from Ukraine
QUESTIONS
How much safer will Russians be without having to die for Putin’s war ?
But how can they get new washing machines if they can’t loot those in Ukraine ?
Interesting questions to ask on another site.
The premise that I posted is what I fear to some analysts if Trump wins.
My questions were an attempt to understand how the Ukrainian people would react to an undesirable scenario
The comparison between Zelensky and Churchill, as a man for war, but not for peace, has made the main Italian geopolitical
If your question was serious, and not a trolling attempt here is a serious answer:
1) There can’t be a truce/peace because Ukrainians know Russia would simply use it to rebuild their army and invade again. It is better, for Ukrainians, to fight now (even without American support) than later
2) Polls show that a large majority of Ukrainians don’t want to make any territorial concession.
seem like trolling attempt. Ignoring simply the fact USSR guaranteed borders in 91, then signed 94 Budapest, in 2008 claiming Putin he would never violate UA borders and respect that, then Crimea with 2014 and proxies on Donbas. So why any new agreement should be any different or relevant compared to lies and broken words from past.
funny how russian hybrid op system is still working, that on this pro-ukraine server, there still trolls either being chauvinistic and screaming how Ukraine is done already or simply being paid to spread russian narrative that peace is needed and people suffer and blablabla…Sometimes would wish Jerome had moderator to filter this crap out or maybe russian label with “foreign agent” would do.
Sites like these thrive on self-cleaning by users. It is better to expose trolls using counterarguments and correct facts than to delete the lies directly. Education sensitizes users to better recognize propaganda and lies. It is also more difficult for trolls to refute correct arguments with lies every time.
That´s my ideal case scenario too. On the other hand, human society is not homogeneous unitary element and around 10 to 30% of state populations is susceptible to these kind of crap where explanation does not work because its matter of belief, grudge, hate or whatever reason, it can get broader from russian narratives to nationalism. racism, extremism etc. With information avalanche hard to know.
Exactly like Kay says. By cencoring everything you are proving them right and are showing that you only want to fuel your own naritive.
Well, its complex topic and many governments with smarter heads than mine fail to address it. I said also, if they need to stay without censorship, then tagging or labeling it might help too. Clearly there is trap that if you allow everything and they don´t abide of your own rules, your voice will be simply flooded by those who has it as “job”. Terrorist can do anything you cant do. Your ideas?
Tell me, do you know where the Russians got the term “foreign agent” from?
if youre trying to insinuate that if two do the same, it is the same, then further discussion is bit pointless.While USA started to address in 30s GER, Russian started to label anything that was in disagreement with the regime, pushing out free outlet media from Russia. But i assume you know the difference, you only mock FA abreviat…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Agents_Registration_Act
The criteria for a foreign agent are lifted from American law. If a media outlet receives money from abroad, it falls under this criterion. If a person is simply against the regime, he or she must first receive foreign funding in order to become an agent. Otherwise, he is just a fighter against the regime
like i said, you can dance as much as you want, but in US you can have Ritter or Carlson babling RU narratives freely while in RU nothing like that exist. Russia abuses that law to silence its critiques for many years, nothing comparable to US. But feel free to live your dream FA is same and applied the same in both countries.
Did Ritter or Carlson receive money from abroad? Really interesting news. Your problem is that the only people fighting the regime for you are those who are in the sights of the Western media. Naturally, you don’t even consider the anti-Western opposition to Putin. But there is.
still trying to dance the inevitable? So is Russia autocratic state having no democratic opposition or isnt? Is Volkswagen having factory in Russia foreign agent or not, cause money comes from West. Wherever you try to make line and compare it to West or USA, you will fail. But, hey, they beat black people in USA, so maybe after all you will win with your argument…
Oh, how can I compare Russia and western democracy? The whole Third World, holding its breath, looks at the moral authorities of the West each time confirming the high rank during the next bloody showdown. After all, “Western democracy” serves as a model for the whole world, taking into account all opinions and not shutting anyone’s mouth. Except for Chinese and Russian chaperones
Here we go, showing off its cards at least shown leniency. The judge, the jury and the prosecutor. So Chinese and Russians are the good ones now, cause west is the solely corrupt, nice to know. If its all that you insinuate, then we have nothing further to talk about.
Did Ritter or Carlson got arrested for their beliefs? Did Marina Ovsjannikovova got sentenced for 8 years just for simple “No war”, being on house arrest and then had to flee country? This is the regime youre trying to defend with your “Anti West” narrative, which (coincidentally) is same as Russian narrative. Anti-putin opposition is mostly abroad Russia, those in R in jail already, even Girkin.
You understand so little about Russia and Russians that you keep wondering why Putin is not being thrown off and why Russians are not surrendering to Ukrainians. Apparently they are dumb peasants who don’t understand their benefits 🙂 To know about the opposition in Russia, you have to live here, not arrogantly talk about what you don’t know.
You know pretty much nothing about me, what i know or what i dont know, spare me lecture. If you need to project arrogance in to me while deflecting things your beloved Russia does or even their arrogance to the matter, youre probably magician making things disappear. You can have last words, i wont continue with this flame thread any longer. Its pointless.
How significant are those small advances in Avdiivka, and does Russia even have enough manpower to conduct an offensive?
Not at all significant, Terrytorry is not important. They say that Russians have plenty of manpower being trained for many months now. I saw satelite photos publish in the telgraf showing large camps. They estiamte about 300k. With the falling support for Ukraine. They will be waiting out until Ukraine is completley exhausted. Which begins to look like reality.
Is the support for Ukraine really falling though? I believe the US announced 60 billion to them recently.
So 300k troops that are fresh? And who estimates this by the way? I’m pretty certain Ukraine is also actively doing mobilizations too.
Yes it is. No 60b is to being asked by biden to be approved in congress. Even if they get it in best case scenario it is going to last them for 3 months.
And if you don’t know Tristan is expert on the best Russian troops and is helping the Ukraine military with intelligence. Join Russiand and Ukraininan telegram chanels and you will see both sides reality.
60b will easily last for a year.
Between January 24, 2022 and May 31 Ukraine received about 170b Euro, from that about 70b is financial.
So how 60b are goning to last a year?
60 billions is from USA alone . Europe gives more money. And there are Canada, japan, Australia and many more countries.
Borrell says EU alone cannot support Ukraine
60b is pretty much the same sum the USA gave on average those 1,5 years. Borrell may have said that, if so he likely meant the military capability, stocks side of things. I doubt that the USA will just drop the ball completely some day, not even with Trump. Let’s say they would, that would be in 25 and Europe will just have to pay more, that’s the easy part and Ukraine will have to… Read more »
manage with what can be bought internationally at that time, including in the US and produced in the EU. If there would be the political will, Germany alone could keep Ukraine running with money for ever. There is a broad consensus in the European political elites that Russia must be stopped. If I would be Russia I would hope for it, but it won’t end this in itself.
Loosing the USA would be ugly, but in all seriousness, Russia is no match for Europe and Ukraine alone. Europe is simply way to rich for Russia. We can throw money at this problem for ever, if we want to. The will will be the question and right now, it is a cheap deal, double the price tag for Europe, and it is still cheap and sustainable for ever. If we want to.
And if we would let Ukraine down, that would be an epic failure which could disintegrate our whole peace order. And that is what Russia wants and that is exactly what Europe has to and will defend for ever. There is simply no easy out for Russia here.
Patience is a virtue that is no longer common in a fast-paced western world… The hectic pace has caught up with us in all areas. We become restless when we make slow progress. That’s why we are currently being overtaken by technology… We have to wait patiently for Russia to disintegrate and accept that such a large country is slowly falling apart. But it will fall apart, that is certain.
I am not certain about the falling apart part. I would still guess the Kremlin will take the emergency exit once they understand that Europe and/or USA will not back down and the cracks get to big. If faced with the decision between conceding or disintegrating, Russia will likely choose the first. But I can also see U making a deal with Russia once it is demilitarized and poor enough, EU calling.
What should the emergency exit look like? Putin has negligently destroyed the upswing of recent years and made decisions that are leading Russia into a deep depression. It seems to me that Putin has reached the point where he no longer knows how the whole thing can end positively for them.
He is a destroyed man, but he cannot show it to the outside world…
…and that really destroys him inside and makes him mentally dull. He may live in his own bubble, but I think he knows he has destroyed his monument forever. His people only love him as long as he is in power. If there is another president, people will love him and Putin will be out of Russian minds. I don’t really know what makes him tick. But it is obvious that his demeanor is very… Read more »
Putin could fall out of a window, die another way or more likely he just gets a deal like Jelzin got and someone else takes over. May be he gets forced into it, or actually wants it to stay in power. But Russia seems to be a masochistic country aswell. May be it simply doesn’t find a political way out this and actually does disintegrate.
It’s good to see some sense finally. As all you see in the comment, section is pro-war.
I am a devoted catholic, many people in the comment section looks like they have been possessed by a demon.
Jerking off to death and destruction. Not realising there are no winners in war apart from the ripper.
God bless you all.
You want peace ?
Just ask your god to remove Russians from Ukraine, and there will be peace.
Nice try, vatnik, i dont expect you will ask batushka Putin why he started war against the God´s instruction, invaded Ukraine and he is now jerking off to death and destruction over 600 days over his both own and UA people. You will simply comply to your russian mentality to blame the others being responsible for the cause and actions taken, putting it behind the mask of troll.
The more people Putin sends into battle, the more Russians die. One might think that Putin only cares about exterminating his people. They’ve almost made it with the serious criminals. What does Putin do when he no longer has any men? Do women and children have to serve?
Ukraine is not exhausted. Russia is. Russia sent their best troops near Orkhiv to try to stop the Ukrainian advances. They sent whatever then can against Avdivka, and get slaughtered. Meanwhile, Ukrain continues their strategy to methodically destroy Russian artillery. It works.
Why are you still coping after almost 5 months of failed counteroffensive?
Why are you still coping after 19 months of the “3 days special military operation” ?
Btw, yesterday was another big Russian defeat in Avdivka. And the first use of ATACMS has destroyed / damaged more than 20 Russian helicopers, it is now visually confirmed.
Your message juste show you know nothing about this War.
I believe Vitalij knows, it just serve his masters, nothing really fancy about it. These people will only show only one side of the coin and ignore the other side of the coin on purpose. Have you seen many Russians admitting their mistakes and cause and conseq not twisted to their narrative? They almost always blame the others but them to taking the action. Like a little irresponsible children.
Some sources also claim that the ‘testing of defenses’ near Oleshky is an attempt to divert attention from the real objective: a landing operation on the Kinburn Spit.
Just like with Ukraine’s trailer for the offensive, why does this come out to the public? Shouldn’t they try to keep it a secret or am I missing something?
It’s not coming from Ukraine and at this stage it’s only rumors.
One of these days folks are going to realize that Ukraine tests then commits. Every attack is linked to all others. A diversionary strike can become a major thrust once it proves there’s hope. Moscow has to defend against them all. Stick and move, Little Mac.
The biggest problem is not disembarking but keeping restocked…. even more complicated in the rainy season and without air cover
Then paradoxically l, at least initially, could be successful because no one expects it
But that was my point with my comment. Now they certainly know, and I’m pretty certain Russia has satellites too and can see troop movements. Ukraine has something to learn from Russia in this regard, be vague and not loud about your upcoming plans. You can then save your face if it doesn’t go according to the plan.
nice trolling, vatnik, tell Putin how everything goes according to plan. Maybe then Ukraine wouldnt have to figure out the way how to kick trolls back to Mordor. If youre amazed that in 21st century, the delay between what is going on the front is no longer a weeks or even months, maybe you also missed 1st gulf war. At least fog of war works in other areas of the domain.
Putin lost control of the war long ago. Without any strategic benefit and contrary to every rule and doctrine of war, he repeatedly sends soldiers to places where they are constantly being destroyed.
It’s like reaching into the same hornet’s nest every time, even though I know I’ll get stung again and again.
Instead of concentrating on less defended areas and sending the armed forces to different parts of the front in a rotating and flexible manner in order to confuse and expand the enemy, he uses tactics that are dumber than bread. The Ukrainians always wait for the Russians in the same place because they know that they will always come back.