Invasion Day 598 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 14th October 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Ukrainian 32nd Mechanized Brigade attacked Russian positions north-east of Ivanivka. While we don’t know the result of the assault, it revealed that the enemy controls more ground here than we knew. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka, Ivanivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Makiivka, Torske
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Russian forces reached the railway between Krasnohorivka and Stepove. (source)
- The invasion forces managed to reach an ash dump north of Avdiivka. Whether they also managed to gain control over it is unknown. (source)
- The enemy continues to wage an offensive operation to surround Avdiivka, with minimal success and heavy losses. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka, Tonenke, Pervomaiske
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- The enemy advanced by a tree line south of Novomykhailivka. (source)
- Ukrainian forces advance towards Pryiutne and pushed Russians behind a nearby water body. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Soldiers of Ukrainian 128th Mountain Brigade assaulted Russian positions north of Kopani. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Robotyne
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Ladies, gentlemen: ATACMS have landed.
Not quite the range hoped for, but may be used to push command and supply further back.
600 days late, but better late than never
Among the many rumors circulating is that Ukraine will soon launch a landing operation to capture the Russian-held part of the Kherson region. The 35,36,37 and 38 marine brigades have allegedly been redeployed from the Zaporozhie front for that purpose.
so sad that RU airforce shoot down this Death Star given Ukraine by the Empire, that would be handy, right?
I also heard that if you post enough shit in the internet your computer will start producing a Siberian Vodka. Are you trying?
Not allegedly, it’s mentioned in Deployment map recap.
Apologies, I did not see it.
But why launch it in autumn?
I don’t know but they have gained a foothold on several islands and may have spotted weaknesses.
Events are unfolding as we speak. Rybar claims Ukraine may have captured two settlements: https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/10/17/20231017231414-228c9095.jpg
It’s always the same thing with settlements… Most of the time these are dacha areas or places with three abandoned houses. In such places or so-called settlements, the owners constantly change back and forth. Things only get interesting when places with a population of more than 1000 are conquered.
Keep in mind this is a Russian source, caught multiple times reporting completely wrong information.
Ok but how does this serve Russian propaganda?
He claims a “large Ukrainian offensive” one day. Then, the following days, he says that the offensive has been repelled and that Ukrainians lost hundreds of people.
And so Russians are reassured: maybe their offensive on Avdiivka was a failure, but at least the big Ukrainian offensive failed too.
In this particular case, Rybar did not claim there was a “large Ukrainian offensive”. On the contrary, he lamented the fact that a relatively small group of Ukrainians (DRG) managed to take 2 settlements located 8 km inland without being noticed or stopped. Russian bloggers are not as much into chest-beating propaganda as you seem to think.
If you understand Russian, listen to this morning’s video from another popular blogger Yuri Podolyaka. He was lashing out at Russian commanders responsible for Adviidka’s operation and the defense of the Russian-controlled part of Kherson.
There won’t be a discussion about reliability of Russian mil bloggers. I couldn’t care less about what Rybar claims, he is not a reliable source and should not be used.
The Polish election results mean that Konfederacja won’t get into the government and that Poland will continue on it’s pro-Ukrainian course, but it will still remain protectionist if not more than before towards Ukrainian grain and other agricultural exports. That’s good news, as the west needs to prepare Ukraine for the upcoming winter
it’s not that simple but with the campaing monkey circus ending the ‘necessity’ for (still) ruling Party revolting manoeuvers will cease. Mostly. I doubt that the Mr Duda (the president) will suddenly grow some spine and put the gov. into the Coalition’s hands right away. Expect rather interim minority gov. until it will be toppled by majority then maybe some other shenenigans for a while.
Tendar’s comment on the strategic blunder of Russia in Avdiivka. The question of why Russia attacked is an interesting one. It may be a huge blunder, but maybe it is something else. The fact it occured just after Hamas lauched its terror attack on Israel may be more than a coincidence: there is a video of a Russian speaking man leading Hamas fighter as they breached the wall.
Thus far the Russian attempt at taking Avdijivka has failed, but this shows that Russia is more than capable of launching surprise offensives and amassing huge number of soldiers and hardware without Ukraine or its allies noticing. This is very dangerous. Additionally this offensive was covered minimally in western news outlets, which is an another dangerous development
But there was minefield around it, suggesting they knew at some point Russia would try to move around the city rather than on it directly.
I think its too early to tell. We discussed many times Russia will try some attacks en-masse and they did, so that was not a surprise. Lack of coordination, infantry skill, was also somewhat expected too. I think we didnt expect another armored columns moving in line being ambushed, thought Russians learned their lesson. Artilery is also factor R is not stepping out from the trend.
Current firepower both sides have is apparently favoring defense over offense, AFU having less to throw in and should carefully pick their battles and R still using its abundance of soviet stocks but not able to replace losses with current production, using mix of new and old equipment. And they only got this far, Vuhledar II.I am far to underestimate R, they still have plenty,it also have limit.
US and Ukraine reported they knew about Rus offensives towards Avdiivka ans Lyman (Understandingwar.org, 14.10.2023)
The Russians have always had this problem. During the first Chechen war, RU was destroyed in Grozny because, among other things, their tanks and large vehicles could not maneuver and turn in the city. Bridges and narrow places were fatal for the Russians. The same on the way towards Kiev and during various river crossings in UKR.
why is it that the russian make these same basic mistakes, decades long? why arent there officers who object to these tactis?
Probably because too many old men are in charge. They are not willing to learn other tactics, but rather think that their knowledge is the ultimate.
many, so a few: institutional failure, corrupted (in broad sense) administration and management style (that means also leadership), and general and very human ‘not me, not my problem’ attitude which we all share but in such conditions it become very toxic factor.
It’s not that they are ‘stupid’, ‘unable to learn’ etc. There is false sense of abundance of resources leading to –>
–> contempt and disregarding actual e.g. troops because ‘Russia is big, we can throw more’. Even mythical Putin’s ’20 million reservists’ have expiration date and finite numbers. Besides (that’s everybody problem, too) you do not fight the war with the army you want but with the one you have.
Lies at all levels of management. Real reports are thrown into the trash because “this can’t be shown to the bosses, they’ll fire us.” Competition among generals – whoever completes the task will be in favor. Competition between departments. – a tradition dating back to the USSR. The FSB does not transmit information to the Army – information is money. Stupid rotten system
Fighting in dense buildings is the only way to do it. Mosul is an example.
Colleagues, where can i find an information about the percentage of land occupied? I remember Jerome published it some days back with Daily updates. Is it still available?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
They have occupied now more than in the beginning of the year. Even after the “counteroffensive”. About 20%
it used to be available via graph button on deepstate. Not working more than week, but general figures dont change dramatically. Russia occupies roughly 110k square km of Ukr, including Crimea (27k km alone). Ukraine took back roughly 40k km since FEB2022.
You can see the % of occupied land on the full map. If there would be interest in more detailed number, we can do a monthly summary on % of occupied land
Wow, I actually never saw that before.
17,50%
17,1% (Jerome’s map)
I heard of Russian plan to mount a large scale offensive in the beginning of next year. With eventually getting Kiev and Odessa back to their territory.
Have you seen/heard those speculations?
nice trolling, wouldnt be better to mount large scale offensivet agains Kupyansk, Avdiivka, Kramatorsk or anything really at reach for current R logistic rather than fabricate fairytales? Why there was gesture of good will leaving Kherson having effectively no bridge to advance back and still fighting Oleshky bridgehead. They couldnt supply the bridgehead back then, what improved since then?
It was said by Larry Johnson, and his words do have weight. He said they have built hundreds of kilometres of railway, pointing to preparation for large scale offensive.
Also I was wondering how the US military help for Israel will reflect to Ukraine?
And if the talks for bombing Iran happen, does that mean the Ukrainian project is abandoned?
your Larry is one of the pro-russian voices, not sure why it should have any relevance- nice revealing your background, vatnik. Use your math skills and calculate how many % of US mil budget goes to U and to I. Wonder if that will lead you that US can manage both(esp when ISR vs Hamas is not 2 equal army fight). And no, keep dreaming wild dreams.
It’s how much US can produce as it certainly is not enough for Ukraine, now to be shared also with Israel. Unlike Ukraine Israel can pay.
I have the feeling just like Putin ended COVID. Hamas will end the proxy war.
Find me one pro Russia thing that Larry said please that is not based in reality.
Let’s hope you are right about the Ukraine war to end. Too many people have lost their lives. When they die in the trench the bugs eat Russian and Ukrainian all the same. There is no Ramazan, there is no Shabbat, for the bugs it’s all the time Kurban Bairam.
sigh. So you back you vatnik friend that hundreds of new (allegedly) railways will get R help to take Kiyv and Oddesa (original post) without any touch of logistic reality?
If someone is backed by TASS (https://tass.com/politics/1655043) then it has no credibility.
Take your golden rubel and wait for US to finally bankrupt like its prophesied since 70s. Youre same pro russian troll like above.
Putin didn’t end covid 19. He just lied about the number of deaths. Russia is one of the worse country for covid, with 400k official deaths.
In fact, Putin is still very much afraid of the virus. He imposes quarantine on the soldiers he had to decorate. And use body doubles whenever he has to come close to the common people (but that may also be out of fear of being assasinated).
Please keep it in reality and don’t fall for Russian propaganda.
Well, I think we can forget about Russian manpower and Frontline gear generation problems for now. The quantity of the later is down to refitting, upgrading and production speed, but that is obviously enough to throw shit at the wall every once in a while. This will go on until stocks are depleted. The first stock to run down to production speed will be ammunition shells, they have a shelf clock.
well, we discussed that 500 a day is not generating enough losses for Russia and that its able to sustain even slowly build additional resources, question is if U has potential to attrit above 500. Also, if there 1 to 3 or 4 ratio, that also means U losses up to 200 a day, which was claimed very bad during Lysychansk days. If R wishes to waste its potential, then we will se how far… Read more »
Gear generation and ammo generation is still problem and Russia spends its equip faster than its able to produce (in general, not speaking about specifics like drones etc.), still having huge advantage over U with soviet stocks and that war is going on U soil, not R. Will be very long 2024…not so sure if anyone can predict anything meaningful given so many variables along the way.
The limiting factor for manpower is the will to fight, not the numbers for a very, very long time for both sides. I personally think people still tend to underestimate U here. But it is their call. If I put myself in their shoes, I don’t see any other option.
What I am ready to meaningful predict is, that the current costs will make Russia a very, very much poorer country fast. What this means
for Russia’s will to fight if you factor in the human life’s. Hell, I don’t know.
the fact is, nobody knows. Putin is committed to sit this out as long as it needs, so seem west. Is Russian society cracking and falling down, is western society cracking and falling down, do we know. I dont think so. U cannot give up, but also needs funding and industry base from the west. Russia can give up, but still victim of its own dogma. In between U needs to attrit R like AFG… Read more »
This is conflict at scale and equip losses not seen since WW2, Vietnam took USA 11 years to leave with 60k dead in the period, AFG another 10y with est. 60k R dead . Jom Kippur war took less than month with horrendous unsust. equipment losses that Russia already bypassed multiple times due to equip complexity. And yet, its still trying to achieve maximalist goals.
This is not comparable to Vietnam, Afghanistan or Korea. It is an existential fight for freedom of a big country, Ukraine, that could be a parallel to Vietnam, and a perceived existential war for an empire, Russia. Seems likely that Russia will overstretch itself hard before it gets the message. If they go the 10 years, the peak of fossils will be over and the Russian empire as well.
that was the point, R bypassed many measurable checkpoints witnessed in the past and still stubbornly going banging the wall (having their own reason believing it will work). You and me are on the same side believing it wont work. We just dont know until when it will last, Tristan put an article about scenarios R running out of tanks. If parameters change, could shorten or extend the war…
Your assumptions are based on loss estimates. If the estimates are wrong, there will be no attrition 🙂 Max is no longer as confident as a year ago in predicting the collapse of the Russian economy. 🙂
Sure, its also matter of belief, i can admit that. I was not sharing the view economy will collapse (didnt in 2014 and do not today), it took 60 years for USSR, and North Korea still stands- my bet was either on soldiers revolt or civilian population unhappiness (AFG 89 scenario), but anything is possible, despite normal probabilities, variables are simply too many.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs
If youre too tired to listen to it all, 1:02:00 sums it nicely, input parameters can change, intenstity can change, AFU can run out of means to attrit , going back to variables and certainty or uncertainty, in same manner that R can win as it can lose or end up in Korean scenario- time will tell as usual.
Actually, I had settled myself a year ago into quote: ‘endless winter is coming for Russia (GoT phrase)’ and I stick to that. It is even more true today, since the endless part is materializing hard. No, my assumptions are based on satellite image counts of dwindling stocks and hard oryx floor numbers plus Russian! official budget/economy releases and estimates.
Concerning equipment it will be the artillery barrels to look at. Since hard data is not available it is anyone’s guess, when this will be and at which level. I would guess somewhere next year and then there are NK stocks and production… Ukraine is pretty much already down to production plus the SK factor and US cluster stocks. 155 mm production will kick in hard in 25…
Here is a thread that looks at some western production increase from summer 23. SK production is very, very substantial as well. https://x.com/cameron19460429/status/1678984639522951168?s=20
All in all Russia has a lot of time to adapt but obviously no chance to win a production race in the long run. If Ukraine wants to take back all it’s land, it will have to be done by incurring unsustainable
costs on Russia in a long run, think some years, depending on how stubborn Russia is.
as cruel as it sounds, according to Mr. Putin there is ~20mln citizens of Russian Federation who needs to die to make him happy. It will take time.
So Kremlin propaganda was right about “to the last ukrainian” narrative? Because ukrainians with 30 million population will end much faster.
Not necessarily, though the intention of genocide was clearly stated by Putin. War is always a demographic catastrophe for any country, that will include, sadly, Ukraine. The difference is that Ukr survivers will have some kind of future which RU under the omniwise God-Emperor is loosing.
Putin will die befor it is down to the last ukrainian. It seems more likely that Ukraine wants to stop the dying and, or Russia wants to stop becoming poor at some point. Most likely that it will become a semi hot or relative frozen conflict at some point down the line again. Russia will be a lot worse of in any case, while Ukraine may win the ‘peace’ with EU membership and NATO guarantees.
‘Putin will die…’ don’t be overoptimistic. That kind of pestilence tends to infest the Earth long after their expiration date passes. With the medical care he has, he may live easily another decade or more. In ‘Late Brezniev’ mode even longer. That saying – the change to ‘no-Putin Putin’ does not means that the RU ambitions or way of doing things will change necessarily.
Ok, that was more of a polemic retour, than real optimism. I think it is very likely, that his way of thinking prevails. Though it may be easier to find an arrangement after him, which may cause his downfall in the Kremlin eventually. Let’s see what 24 brings politically and how that translates to the battlefield. I think Andrew had the interpretation that Russian possible escalation for 24, think
budget and mobilization is a thread and a offer for negotiations in one. Both sides have considerable risks in connection to the US election. That may bring some movement. I don’t see it though.
don’t underestimate also the will for self-destruction (from our point of view). And ressentment.
I think we agree that Putin-no-Putin dynamics won’t change anything, maybe another mistake of ‘let’s back to bussiness’, thoug this time it would be much harder. I won’t speculate if Russia without some dissolving cataclysm (unlikely) is able to really change.
No Russia probably won’t change, but it is capable accepting some form of defeat if absolutely necessary. Putin is more or less hell bend stuck on destroying Russia further with this. I do believe that someone else may want to stop the decline. But yes, it is a masochistic country.