The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 11th October 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka, Ivanivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- The invasion forces attempted to advance towards Makiivka from the eastern direction and lost several armored vehicles and tanks as the result. (source) (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- The enemy is slowly gaining ground south of Berkhivske reservoir, where it made minor gains. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Andriivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Russian army have launched an offensive operation to encircle Avdiivka on October 10.
- Russian troops advanced from the direction of Krasnohorivka towards Avdiivka and were met with accurate artillery fire. (source) (source)
- The enemy also attempted to advance towards Stepove, but entered a Ukrainian minefield exactly at the end of our visualization. (source)
- Russian forces pushed towards Sieverne and are a field away from the village proper. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Stepove, Avdiivka, Sieverne
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- The enemy attempted to move towards Novomykhailivka from the south. Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade repelled the attack on the town itself, but Russians managed to advance closer.(source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Russian sources claim Ukrainian troops managed to enter northern outskirts of Novoprokopivka, but later managed to counter-attacked and push Ukrainian forces out of the settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- The enemy targeted an airfield in Kryvyi Rih and destroyed Ukrainian Su-25. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
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After the Prigozhin mutiny, I came across a description of the Russian plan to fight at Bakhmut. Whether it’s true or not, I don’t know. They wanted to create a semi-environment with supply routes that could be fired upon. Knowing that Zelensky put everything on Bakhmut, the idea is pretty obvious. But Prigozhin decided to storm the city to the end. Now something similar is happening in Avdeevka
The concerning part is that the Russians are making gains – small painful ones, but nonetheless dangerous gains. The 100th human wave did eventually capture Bahmut, let’s hope that the same thing doesn’t repeat with Avdijivka – I’m worried at how little media coverage these Russian attacks are getting in most western news outlets
You didn’t understand what was written. The intention was not to capture Bakhmut, but to turn it into a firebag. But Prigozhin drove his men to the assault.
From DeepStateMAP –
% of Ukraine occupied by Russia on:
6 Oct 2023: 17.957 [https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053]
13 Oct 2023: 17.958 [https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053]
Net % of Ukrainian territory gained by Russia 6-13 Oct 2023: 0.001
Area of Ukraine: 603,500 sq km
Therefore, net Ukrainian territory gained by Russia 6-13 Oct 2023: approx. 6 sq km
Or it’s just a rounding error.
Seriously, show me on the map where those 6sq km are. North of Avdiivka, they gained maybe 1 sq km (I’m generous) and lost hundreds of men and dozens of armored vehicules (at minimum). So ti’s another crushing russian deafeat.
Svatove-Kreminna front.
Indeed. Small gains near to Makivka.
Rounding error is what I think of first as well when I see a stat like this. The broader point is that, right now, we have a basically immobile front.
6 km² is nothing at all for such a large country. If the Russians change their position in all occupied cities, you get 6 km²…
What is interesting is that this lack of movement is not the result of slackening of effort on either side. There has been a considerable uptick in the attrition of personnel and materiel, at least by the AFU on the invaders, over the past few days especially. (From the daily AFU release.)
An OSINT analysis about the Russian failure in Avdiivka, for those who are interested.
Rather convincing, well documentented analysis.
like they did for 19 months bro? you were very “realistic” then too
i believe it will be in 3 days, like entire SVO…
This message was deleted by administrator.
reason: unreliable source
Rybar isn’t reliable. Suryakmaps can be. I’m also curious about this and how significant it is.
The ‘terrikon’ is a slag heap north of Avdiivka, which is an important high point. Apparently captured.
The c-offensive is only a shadow of what it was. The pendulum has swung again. The initiative is back to Russia.
No. Russia just got owned (maybe even harder than in Vuhledar), it just helps Ukrainians to win the attrition war.
Sure the ten-year-attrition-war-that-will-not-be
every week a new 2ct of hope by tristan or beckhaus or … . When russia will have won soon, i will do a collection of the “facts” and hopes why selenski will win shouted out by his groupies here
Patrick can at least discuss, youre simply trollbot coming back every time Jerome deletes you.
I agree on the c-offensive part, but why do you think Russia has the initiative?
It’s normal. One side can’t always attack. Apart from Avdiivka, the Russians have conducted local operations and had some successes on other fronts as well. This may not last long depending on weather conditions. But it seems clear that the Russians are now pressing ahead while the Ukrainians are mostly on the defensive.
A better description of the situation is:
No, yours is a misleading description. In the last 2 weeks, the Ukrainians have advanced by a whopping 0,36 km2 south of Bakhmut (source: Deepstatemap). Slowly crawling would be more appropriate than pushing.
If you think it is not fast enough, you can petition your gouvernement to send more weapons to Ukraine
It’s not about what I think. It’s about describing a situation objectively.
There are units in eastern Ukraine that have been fighting non-stop for months. Now will be the time of the recovery and consolidation phase. I suspect that the UA will be more offensive this winter than last year. Russians are more vulnerable in winter than in summer. And for this, the units are prepared and their wounds are first licked.
I think you´re right Kay, i wonder what you think about Shoigu´s claim they made 9 brand new regiments (3 divs give or take)- so that they either reconstitute wounded elements by rotation or have stategic reserve available for off/def. They already commited 25CAA, not sure if not too early that they had to. Certainly the stream of recruited people is constant and flowing to keep bear running.
Perhaps time will tell
You can’t be suspected of objectivity 🙂
Citing a reliable source of information is a more objective attitude that citing none.
You mean, when you were pretending that oryx bas biaised, it wwas an objective attitude ?
And even now, when you claim that Russia “has the initiative” just because they threw everything they could against Avdiivka and got destroyed, it is far from being objective.
Changing topics is easier, right? But fine – Even Max recognized the other day that oryx gets a lot more Info from the Ukrainian side and rhetorically asked: what bias may this entail?
As a matter of fact, Oryx tries to gtr information from all publicly available sources. No biais in their methodology nor sources.
Some people speculate that Ukrainians are more likely to publish photos, but I doubt it. Maybeit was true earlier, but the counteroffensive showed that Russians are publishing as much as they can (with the same Bradleys photographed 10 times).
The Ukrainians are much more into PR stunts, photo sessions, and spectacular (but often costly) touch-and-go actions than the Russians are. This focus on IMAGE means they are SHOWING a lot more than the Russians are. Have you seen the Russians raising their flag after capturing Serhiivka or Novoselivkse? I haven’t.
They don’t care as much as the Ukrainians who would not have missed such an opportunity. Likewise, the Ukrainians will showcase EVERY SINGLE successful destruction of enemy equipment while the Russians won’t do it as systematically.
Even well-intended attempts at recording equipment losses will achieve little beyond feeding into the skewed narrative about Russia’s losses being several times higher than Ukraine’s.
But you have to put that into perspective. Many Russian soldiers, especially those who have been mobilized, have to hand over their cell phones. Most of the pictures and reports come from Russian mibloggers and the lies are constant to give the Russian people a different picture of the war.
And you don’t have access to many Russian pictures because they are published in closed Telegram groups.
Fourth: Russian propaganda channels often present their own losses as Ukrainians. That’s why Ukrainians start showing watermarks in their video (Russian now do it too).
Russians are also prone to present fake photo/video (cf their “proofs” of the destruction of HIMARS)
As usual, Russians are liars while Ukrainians are much more reliable. They are the one addicted to PR stunts.
The truth is: Russian losses are much higher than Ukrainian ones. That’s what an objective observer can tell, based on all available evidences. And when you call this fact “a skewed narrative”, it only means you are not objective.
What you know is based on what you are shown and have seen on western or pro-Ukrainian media. Then you pick a few examples and make sweeping statements. That’s a very shallow approach. I know of several cases when Ukrainians have presented their losses are Russian ones but I am not going to build a theory around it.
I already told you. Oryx (and other OSINT analysis) consider all available evidences. Not just what is published in western media.
The evidences show you something you don’t like, so you follow the Russian narrative. Believe what you want, but don’t pretend to be objective.
Third: no, the Ukrainian do not show every single destruction of equipment.
Many Russian losses were recorded by Oryx MONTHS after it happened, simply because Ukrainians did not show it when it happened.
On the other hand, Russian DO systematically show every western equipment destroyed, and they often also show failed attempts (maybe because they have not enough success to show).
You wrote: “On the other hand, Russian DO systematically show every western equipment destroyed”
How on earth would you know that? This is a perfect illustration of a sweeping statement lacking any nuance and therefore raising serious credibility issues (I am trying to be diplomatic).
The fact they show the same bradleys again and again, with different angles, just to try to make you believe they have destroyed more than they did, means that if they could show more, they would have to.
We also know how many equipment were sent to Ukraine. Ukrainians couldn’t have lost much more than what Russian have shown, and still operate Bradleys and Leopards.
OMG, Patrick, you are so wrong.
First, about the “flag” thing: it is to give the visual proof of the liberation of a village, meaning is safe to raise the flag. BTW Wagner did the same thing when they attacked Bakhmut and captured each individual village.
Second, Ukrainians do not fake the capture of a village. The Russian did. Cf a fake video of the “capture” of Synkivka.
Wagner did the same but not the other Russian units – I gave the examples of Serhiivka and Noveselivske which were not captured but Wagner and which you did not rebut.
I would petition to send you personally to the front to get some sense of reality in your monkey skull.
I believe you talk about big vozd Putin, that makes sense, vatnik. SVO goes according to 3days plan, you can still make it to the parade in Kyiv…
You’re both being misleading because raw territory isn’t the key in this fight, it’s combat power.
Attrition and maneuver are not oppositional concepts. You attrite at one level to maneuever in another. It’s the loss ratio in each engagement *and* their collective impacts that matter.
All we can say about combat power is that neither has run out yet. The fight continues.
^^^ that ^^^^
rule 1,2 and 4. Lie is not an opinion.
i cant tell if this is sarcastic
given the comment below about Avdiivka taken soon, another delusional R troll.
The pendulum swings on the front line every time Moscow sends in another wave of reserves to get thrashed by cluster rounds in pointless offensives.
But there are local swings and ones that take place across a broader area. This has not happened. Desperate counterattacks away from the main danger area – the Robotyne-Verbove breach – aren’t new. Just the same-old back and forth.
I missed you, too.
Russian push for last 3 days with huge losses and you call it initiative is back ? Do you now how long it would take to Ukr to destroy hundreds of russian BMP´s and tanks and now they´v done it in a few days……
You mean the 10th of October, right?
And also, if the enemy will be able to capture Avdiivka what consequences will it be for Ukraine? I mean there must be a reason why they have fortified that town as much as they have.
The Russians won’t capture Avdiivka any time soon. It’s SUPER fortified, much more than Bakhmut. What they are trying to do is encircle it. And this will also take time.
Right, but you didn’t answer my question. Why is Avdiivka so fortified to begin with? If it is even more fortified than Bakhmut then it sure must be of more strategic value, and why is that?
It is a symbol – right in front of Donetsk, the ‘capital’ of the DPR – and a painful thorn in the Russian foot. The Ukrainians have been there since 2014 and have had ample time to entrench themselves, build fortifications, tunnels, etc.
There must be something else than a symbol. Are there any other fortifications after the town, or is it straight to Dnipro?
And are also Kramatorsk and Sloviansk also equally as fortified?
like my predecesor said, its fortified since 2014, thats why, they had time. Similar with Marinka, Popasna, Verkhnotoretske -fortified trench systems very hard to get through, you have tendency to overlook bigger picture and focused on one place. Additionaly, its close to Donetsk “capital” and there used to be huge coking plant. Look at deepstate how little Russians could penetrate from borders.
Right, but you’re also misunderstanding me. What will the consequences be for Ukraine if Russia captures it? Will it be open fields to Dnipro? Will it threaten Ukraine’s counter offensive in the south etc. There must be a reason why they have fortified that town and not, let’s say Severdonetsk and lysychansk, which fell quickly compared to Bakhmut.
Avdiivka was on the frontline for 8 years. Severdonetsk and lysychansk were not. That’s why the first one was fortified, and not the others.
youre ignoring what people say to you, its built and enlarged since 2014, so thats diference to Bakhmut, Severodontesk or Lysychansk, once they broke through from Popasna, the could go there to those cities. Recent scenario probability is Bakhmut II, for several months and not clear if R has resources to achieve it. If so, it wont be quick breakthrough anywhere far, that time seem pass for both.
look at Marinka, entrenched and still holds since FEB2022, take Marinka and Avdiivka more value for AFU than for R, cause its backdoor to Dontesk, given the map Russia would have to go to less favorable terain (240m in AVD, 300 behind) after that, with many water crossings and small settlements.
But does Ukraine have any other defences from Donbass to Dnipro after Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Avdiivka?
youre probably oracle. Russians are not at Kupyansk, not taken Avdiivka, still stuck at Kremina and you question what happens after they take Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. Got a feeling i got baited.
I guess you have dyslexia. I didn’t write that they are at Kupyansk, neither that they have taken Kremina. I didn’t mention anything about taking Slovyansk and Kramatorsk either. I guess this is the tiktok age where people can’t read or they don’t have the attention span to do so.
I wrote “does Ukraine have any other defences from Donbass to Dnipro after Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Avdiivka?”
tiktok or not, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk were more threatened when R had second axis at Izyum, now only vector possible is from Bakhmut and you know how that looks there. So, how relevant you want to be. And yes, there is always defense as long there are soldiers willing to defend the line. Happy now, grumpy man?
So another Bakhmut then? Bomb it to rubble over span of several months?
seemingly. It’s much better prepared than Bakhmut could be. And there was Wagner. If you look at the ‘costs and benefits’ coldly (and inhumanly) the destruction of the Wagners’ cohesion and position (resulting in that miserable half-assed mutiny which had and has serious effects) was worth all ‘Bakhmut keeping’ stubborness. Encirclement is a possibility –>
but rather distinct until RU will be not only willing but also able to sacrifice literal thousands of troops for gradual slow and costly movements like ants overwhelming the elephant, eventually. This is bery risky though because inevitable units and troops degeneration at such a scale is contaigeous.
The Russians clearly lack the material to encircle Avdiivka. Mariopol was able to be surrounded at that time because the Russians had sufficient material and one side was completely bordered by the sea.
nope, these situations are completely different. Avd is a fortified stronghold which even flanked (‘half-encircled’) still is dangerous for RU and very hard to maneuvre around, let alone take. Mariupol wasn’t prepared for that and has small garrison – eventually ad hox def. forces included police, security personnel, up to ‘every willing and able body’. The encirclement was done quickly –>
–> b/c there was no force able to resist seriously and at that point the RUAF has still momentum and ability, especially there on the South, for maneouver at scale. Treason and SF operation were also an important factor.
soem units on the SOuth were overrun before they were able to compose and they need reconstitution later. Don;t you remember that that was the time when forward elements of RU ‘tourist’ were driving behind Nicolaiv (Voznensk is the most western point reached) and amphibious assault around Odessa wasn’t Sci-Fi.
Shortly: It was a mess. And guys in Mariupol sacrificed themselves–>
–> to five other time and fighting chance.
interesting… thanks for the clarification
https://militaryland.net/maps/russian-invasion/mariupol-front/
they were at mariupol from behind and from pavlopil axis in 6 days. Front door was holding. These two cities are incomparable.
kinda was just saying that (regardless of misstyping conclusion should be clear: these situations were and are, not comparable)
I dont know why everyone reads my comments as anti-thesis to theirs. It was my intention to back you up (or add up to your valid point) with some concrete argument visualized on the map.
lol no
ive read same claims about Kupyansk from begining of AUG, and while that clash havent finished yet, it was anything but soon…
Yes, sorry, fixed.