Invasion Day 588 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 4th October 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Zybyne (out of map, near Vovchansk), Novoselivske
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Russian forces advanced in Serebryansky forest and reached a crossroad in the area. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian forces advanced towards the railway north of Klishchiivka. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Hryhorivka, Klishchiivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Novomykhailivka, Zolota Nyva
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Verbove, Robotyne
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Crimea
occupied Crimea, without map
- Ukrainian HUR MO landed on Crimea and conducted a raid. (source)
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
Do you like our summaries, follow Twitter daily and have interest in geolocations? I’m looking for volunteers to help me to monitor the situation and write the summaries with me. If you are interested, please contact us via email [email protected].
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Figures, statistics, graphs. And weather
https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/can-weather-predict-operational-tempo-ukraine-winter
I think it is obvious that the military side of this war is stuck bejond issues like weather. It seems to become a WW1 scenario. Now it comes down to will and economics. Who has the will to keep the current effort longer and/or who can keep it up longer. Russia is in a Germany WW1 scenario, it can’t win if the opponent stays willing, while Ukraine has to hope that the west stays willing.
The left side of the Dnieper River seems to be very little fortified. There was the justification that an attack in Kherson is not possible because it would not have had the support of armor and tanks. But the role of tanks was almost nil in the Zaporizhia area. However, this is the shortest way to Crimea and the Sea of Azov. I think it would have been possible for Ukraine to provide logistical.
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Russia will lose the war of attrition.
If and only if the west isn’t stupid and weak enough to stop supporting Ukraine. I mean just look at the USA, Slovakia and Poland.
But yes, there are many indications to confirm your conclusion: https://youtu.be/bKHdxUQZgZA (there’s also an EN version, but it is way shorter)
Yes, you are right, it will lose the war of atrittion, if parameters largely stay as they are. Slovakia and Polansd sovjet stuff is gone. Poland will support Ukraine out of hate on Russia in some way always and Slovakia is to small to make a difference anyways. Putins big bet is on the USA, but he is mistaken here again, because Europe can handle it alone if need be.
Is the truth hurting, or what are those thumbs down supposed to mean?
They are a form of protest against the guy that makes up 80% of the comments on these summaries. You aren’t even asking questions, just making statements to provoke the trolls.
If a guy like you would grow up in Russia, you would be pro-war 100%.
Sometimes you make good observations, those get a thumbs up 🙂
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Russia relocated large parts of its black sea fleet to Novorossiysk. It is losing one of its initial 2014 war aims, to secure Sevastopol as its main black sea harbor.
Nobody needs Sevastopol by itself. They need airfields and places to launch missiles. That’s all. From this point of view, whether the fleet is based in Sevastopol or Novorossiysk makes no difference at all.
Not that the airfields are safer, but losing Sevastopol as the Russian main black sea base is a strategic defeat, no matter how you want to look at it. And of course you need it, e.g. to control the western part of the black sea, which they can’t anymore or to repair ships on the only land based dry docks they have. Anybody would like Sevastopol in itself.
It’s easier to move an aeroplane than a ship. And drones control a given area the way helicopters used to do. Times are changing.
Sevastopol has been useless as a naval base since Turkey blocked access routes to the Black Sea for military ships. Since the UA has increasingly attacked Crimea, the port infrastructure of Sevastopol has become a potential target.
It is also far too great a risk for RUS to park ships in the port. Because destroyed ships cannot be exchanged due to the Turkish blockade.
yes, that’s very wise, of course. So… Why they do this now? They could rebase the fleet at any moment shortening the supply lines at the same time. The range is not a problem neither the time of reaching the engagement zone.
(hint: Novorosijsk does not have necessary infrastructure to properly serve as a base for a fleet Sevastopol has, it is also much smaller port and unlike Sev: open)
Of course they need Sevastopol. Why do you think they invaded Crimea in 2014?
Very simple: the Bal missile system installed on the southern coast of Crimea just shoots through the Bosphorus. And look at the navy: its future is ruled by Turkey, can’t you see that?
The UA Army is stuck on the outskirts of Novoprokopivka and Verbove. The Pyatykhatky front hasn’t moved by an inch since July. Same situation near Urozhaine. Klishchiivka and Andriivka are in ruins, offer no hiding places, and are de facto grey areas. The Russians even managed to retake some lost territory around Pryutne and Novodonetske. The c-offensive seems to be running out of steam.
Hey Patrick, usually I dont share most of your views, but this time make exception. Shouldnt be called offensive but gradual push like they do around Bakhmut and Russians in the Kupyansk/Kremina area. I´ll gladly eat my hat to be wrong, but in Urozhaine culminated like month ago. Its not shame to announce next phase of conserving forces and trying to keep initiative and inventing another plan.
Not really. FIRMS show that Ukrainian artillery is more active than ever, the destruction of Russian equipment is extremely high (september numbers were well above the March 2022 record according to Ukrainian MoD). and Ukrainian are still slowly progressing around Bakhmut and around Robotyne (despite Russia comitting its VDV strategic reserves).
Have you watched FIRMS for Ukraine? Ukrainian sources report the use of more than 1,000 planning bombs during September.
Second or third round of these localized counterattacks. Ukraine bites and holds, ruscists throw bodies into the grinder. Once the VDV reinforcements are ground down later this month, it’ll be easier to advance. Gotta destroy the enemy’s combat power to take ground. It takes time. But the mud deadline is irrelevant when you move this way, so the push will keep going on and on. Endurance fight.
That’s right… As long as there are still RU men who allow themselves to be sacrificed, Russia will continue to throw soldiers to the front… The hope is that this contempt for humanity against its own people will no longer be accepted. But unfortunately there are still enough hopeless Russians whose deaths are acceptable.
I know its Ukrainian country and they know local conditions better. Still, the specifics of “black soil”, that can become greasy and sticky to your boots, even sucking you 30-40cm into the soil is limiting factor too (you cannot run from one cover to another cover). All it depends where there is such soil, how long its gonna stay dry or when freezing can come. They say in Zapo Region…
the difference could make roughly 30-40 days compared to northern parts of Ukraine. So kinda interested to see if AFU will keep fires mission on steady state cause wont lack of ammo, how weather will last or influence, if AFU forces are tired, if RU forces are tired, if they can replace or rotate, drone clashes…complex indeed.
It is a question of interpretation if you want to call it culminated or not. I think Ukraine will push on on the Tokmak axis like Russia did on Bakmuth as long as it can. It seems to me it still can, just very slow.
I said Urozhaine culminated, they removed some of the brigades including naval one. Tokmak axis is perception issue, i agree. But given the incremental steps (securing flanks, clear trenches, conserve forces), probably wouldnt hurt to not call it offensive, cause unless RU collapse, there wont be quick movement or maneuver, which off primarily trying to achieve. Going back to attrition taks…
Since weeks now, Ukr only push seriously near robotyne and south of bakmut. Russian attacks also decrease .
Klishchiivka/ Andriivka are in ruins but still offer hiding places (shelter, houses partially destroy. ). The fights are now east of the railway who is artifical strong defense lign. Battle for this settlement is over . Russian are in bad tactical position.
What is the current situation in Marinka? The Russians are said to have sent more units into the city over the last two weeks in order to finally completely conquer it. But apparently UKR has once again repulsed all attacks. This city is a symbol of Russian stupidity. They have been trying to conquer it since 2014, but have so far failed to drive the UKR out of the last remaining rubble.
Ukrainian forces should still control the western outskirts.
They do.
This is a fantastic website. It gives a lot more detail than you find on CNN, MSNBC, Fox or any other news reporting source and most milblogs. Do you know what is going on with unmanned suicide submarines?
Isn’t Novoprokopivka contested ? There was a video of Ukrainians inside the village a few days ago.
Russian counter attack and retake part of the trench just north of the settlement. Both camp fight for the control of this trenches.
I don’t know whether you consider the YouTube chanel of Denys Davydov a reliable source, but he said today and partly yesterday that that video was incorrectly labelled.