The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 20th September 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Soldiers of Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade, Lyut Assault Brigade and 5th Asssault Brigade liberated Klishchiivka. (source)
  • Ukrainian forces, namely 3rd Assault Brigade, liberated Andriivka south of Bakhmut. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Andriivka, Zaitseve

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

  • Russian forces shelled Ukrainian troops on the western outskirts of Novomaiorske. The settlement is now contested. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • Ukrainian forces advanced and captured Russian trenches south of Robotyne. (source)
  • Ukrainian troops slowly, but surely, expanding its breach west of Verbove. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kherson Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

Do you like our summaries, follow Twitter daily and have interest in geolocations? I’m looking for volunteers to help me to monitor the situation and write the summaries with me. If you are interested, please contact us via email [email protected].

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Triglav

Finally, the ATACMS missiles are coming

Max Beckhaus

Hi Jerome, I would be interested in what your ideal apart from the 6 points for this section would be or if you could specify what ‘keep it relevant’ could or should mean. It would also be interesting how the ‘waiting for approval’ mechanic works. Greetings!

JohnnyBeerGr8

yes, i am also wondering, eg. defending Bakhmut city was political decision with result on the map. So kinda interested where the line is (or mobilization, war industry increase/new weapons that appear on the front enabling to change it, attrition).

Max Beckhaus

Ok, out of the top of my head in Crimea in the last week or so:
1) 3+ ships have been damaged, the two probably irreparable.
2) A strategic air defense system was destroyed
3) A command center and the headquarter of the black sea fleet was hit.
4) A ship with grain navigated freely to and away from Ukraine.
5) 2 of 3 land based dry docks in Sevastopol have been damaged and blocked

Patrick

Two clear annoucements were made by Zelensky in the US: (1) Ukraine will liberate “Bakhmut and two other key Ukrainian cities”; (2) there will be “no letup” in the counteroffensive.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-09-22-23/h_4a4def6e396fe708f16bbe2714969501

The coming weeks will be very interesting.

Noelle

(it is relevant to the situation and unfotunately political)

  • there will be even more mess in Poland in coming days; do not rush to conclusions neither listen to RU-trolls (however disguised), these are the last weeks of election campaign and they (PiS) will do anything possible to stay in power.
  • There will be even more RU propaganda in air than usual.

pls. stay mentally sober.

JohnnyBeerGr8

and sorry to add more, already been announced by ministry of Agrarian Policy that agreed with Poland to work and find solution that will take in to account both countries interests. So damage control is already ongoing.

Kay

The solution does not come from the ministry, but from the EU… The proposal is to better protect Polish farmers from dumping prices and to compensate for their loss of income. While the EU takes Ukraine’s grain and distributes it to the relevant countries (Africa). It’s not about a trade dispute between POL and UKR, but about balance and maintaining economic equilibrium.

Noelle

This is the problem which that gov. themselves created. The alerts (from among the others: farming organisationts) were raised long ago pointing an obvious solutions like caution system. They did nothing. What is worse – their ‘buddies’ enriched themselves on that half-legal grain trading. Just like the refugee crisis it is cynical (and mindless) attempt to grasp for votes.

Noelle

they are desperate and they have reasons to be. Most of PiS est., including significant part of gov. or the President himself deserves criminal prosecution for theft, corruption, abuse of power or just outright breaking the law. For many of them lost elections may lead to serving the time.
Assuming that this pathetic (and yet unfortunatelly only one significant) opposition won’t screw this time.

Noelle

and for the record: they never have been ‘pro-Ukraine’. They were forced to take this position. Actually while being anti-Russian at least rhetorically (because any other possition in Poland is not feasible) they were, just like their idol Orban, quite pro-Putin.

Kay

Poland and the other three countries affected are the most affected by dumping, hence the dispute on the backs of these countries. You cannot restrict trade in grain from non-EU countries in order to protect the domestic economy from dumping and maintain balance, while allowing the UKR to do so. This regulation does not exist for free and has proven itself for years…

Kay

… but it cannot be thrown out of the window just because of UKR.
And yes, here the Polish president is once again doing a disservice to Russian propaganda for everyone who is against UKR support. He also needs the farmers’ votes to be re-elected. It’s all just an election campaign that is being completely misinterpreted outside of Poland, thanks to the Russians and the gullible.

Patrick

Thanks for asking. I personally appreciated the more detailed maps. When combat operations are taking place in a strategic area they are very useful to follow the evolutions.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Maybe Zaporizhia front as an addition to Bakhmut, but i have no idea how much work is it for you, but these two seem the most active (in territory change sense), otherwise looking good from my side. Thanks for asking.

Zuen

Prioritize your own health over something as trivial as this please. 

Tristan

I like current style of maps. The maps that are too detailed (or those where we can zoom in like deepstatemap) will often mention minor changes of the frontline that are not meaningful.

Your maps are more useful to give a “strategic view” without getting distracted by the tactical changes here and there.

Max Beckhaus

I sometimes wish the map would be placed a little differently. E.g. the zaporizhia front map shows a lot of the northern, ukrainian part, but I would find more area south more interesting. I wouldn’t mind (testing) a biggish map with the whole southern Frontline for context and small detail maps for hot areas. The large Ukraine map is to large and smaller maps can’t give the larger picture.

Max Beckhaus

But really, for me it’s fine as it is. Your maps are by far the nicest I know of. If you would find a way to make a large one where we could zoom, that would be the non plus ultra for me.

Pikująca Szozda

The maps are good the way they are.

Beware of zooming in too much, since that can give people a false sense of precision. When you put something on a map, it forces you to put it in a specific spot, even if you only have a general idea of where it is.

Noelle

They are just fine. I do not see any benefit in change, especially if it mean (and probably will) more work for you. At least for now. Maybe more detailed (‘Bakhmut-like’) Zaporozia sector at some point will be interesting. But NOT if it will mean that you’d have to deprioritize smth else important (including your private life or health).

Triglav

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Last edited 7 months ago by Jerome
Jan

While in 2015 Minister of Defense (from PiS) ordered breaking into NATO Counter-Intelligence Expert Center and took god knows what from there and gave to god knows whom. Seems legit.

Max Beckhaus

Interesting points by anders puck Nielson, danish military:
1) Ukraine will not run out of soldiers ever, if it stays willing to mobilize.
2) Russia is showing weakness concerning this will to mobilize, since it is constantly dragging its feet concerning this.
I think there could be many reasons why Putin, Russia is cautious concerning mobilization.

Triglav

I don’t think it’s a good idea to underestimate the Russian commitment to the war. I’d say 80% of the population is stounchingly pro-Putin and pro-war, while Ukraine has a significant number of citizens who are ambivalent. I feel like Putin just wants to avoid a full mobilization because then he’d have to declare war, which would add yet another contradiction to the poccky propaganda

Last edited 7 months ago by Triglav
Zuen

mabey UKR can fuel their military with soldiers for a significant amount of time. But it will certainly run out of trained soldier right? 10.000 soldiers dead have a lot more impact on the Ukrainians than on the Russians, i think.

Tristan

On the contrary, Ukraine can train new soldiers more easily than Russia:
1) NATO can help Ukraine training their troops, up to several thousands trainees/month
2) Russia has problem training new troops, since they sent their instructors to the frontline in 2022
3) Russian losses are higher (roughly 2 to 3 times higher), so they need to train more soldiers each month

Zuen

Thats true, but i dont think Russia has ever won a war with superior strategy and technology. Jusy bombardements, attrition and victory by numbers/mass. But i am not a historian, so we’ll see.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I think Zuen is partially right here too, its qualitative difference if there dies a teacher, worker with family, than convict from storm-z detachment. (not only from sentimental, but also productivity point of view and creating values)

Zuen

Thanks, that was indeed my point. But your explanation is better.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Also im not bright military expert or bright matematician, but pure 3:1 seem still advantageous to Russia, cause closer to zero, lines will/could fall without reaching parity, i mean attrition wise. There used to be mechanic explained in Washington Naval treaty (for ships), but i am not sure if there is something similar for human ratio. Maybe you could help me out here?

Max Beckhaus

The factor is irrelevant for Ukraine, since it can sustain it’s losses for a very long time anyways. Russia is hurt more by mobilization right now, because their labour market is empty. Every mobilized practically means that the economy shrinks. Ukraine has a high unemployment rate, any mobilized can be replaced.

JohnnyBeerGr8

i understand, my hypothetical speculation was only abstract the scale indefinitely to see the curve, or calculating 900 vs 300 in consecutive clashes (hence ship correlation), that after first clash you may have 600 vs 200, but due to uneven distribution of the score, if you reach 450 vs 120, you can win decisively. Or if there is 3 vs 1, its enough to win 2 to 0.

vita

Ukraine is on the offensive with minimal advances for almost 4 months already, and yet Russia loses 2-3 times more soldiers? Funny logic. It’s 1:1 in best case scenario.

Let alone the fact that Russian population is 140 millions while Ukrainian (excluding occupied zone/refugees) is 30 millions.

Tristan

Ukrainians prioritize the destruction of Russian forces over quick advances, and the numerous local counter-attacks by the Russians (each time they lose a position, they try to regain it by a hasty counterattack that often fails) explain why they have so many losses.

The population comparison is pointless because both countries have more men than they could equip and/or train.

vita

The so-called destruction of russian forces could last for decades, great plan how to devastate both countries out of existence

Also I don’t believe GSUA morale boost made-up numbers about RAF losses, they’re at least twice less

No, population comparison isn’t pointless, my point is that Russia can easily afford having 4-5 times more human losses than Ukraine

Max Beckhaus

Ok, let’s say 10 million ukrainians could be mobilized and Ukraine needs to mobilize 200k a year. That would be 50 years.

vita

Ukraine has total of about 8 million men aged 18-60, this number is decreasing every year (population ageing, underage male emigration, horrible birthrate in 00s).

You can’t mobilize even 50% of these 8 millions, economy would be dead instantly.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Russia has 25M men and this number is also decreasing in same bad demographic curve as Ukraine. They cant mobilize even 50%, if i apply same logic your argumented. As PPP pointed out, you need to equip, train and feed them and Russia has no capacity, reducing conflict from mass million to appx 300-700k armies on each side (combat, non-combat) and given AFU firepower, they wont break through.

vita

Russia has 35 millions men aged 18-60, Ukraine has 8 millions. I have no idea where you got 25 millions.

JohnnyBeerGr8

its such a shame that your own defence minister said that:
https://tass.com/defense/1511049
Maybe you should check your numbers again…

vita

Well by that logic Ukrainian potential is also much less than 8 millions. Because 8 millions is total amount of men aged 18-60.

JohnnyBeerGr8

nice deflection from claiming 35M on Russian side, Vitalij, you can change subject as much as you want instead of admit reality. Symptomatic.

vita

You said “Russia has 25M men” which is false

JohnnyBeerGr8

your own minister said, Russia has 25M eligible reservist. Period. Russia can have 60M men, still your own government does not plan to use them, but 25M. You can dance but wont work for you. Same for mobilization, below, 300k mobilized, 700k fled the country, still insisting on 35M available men for the army? Then keep dreaming.

JohnnyBeerGr8

you forgot to count feb22 to may23 when russia was on offensive and even now has strategy of counterattacks, hence you argument about AFU being in offensive is inconclusive.

Max Beckhaus

Ok Vita, so let us use 4 million, that would make 20 years. I doubt that your 8 million is right though and Ukraine does have women fighting and it has a BIG unemployment rate.

Max Beckhaus

So now ask yourself if Russia or the West will want to keep this up for 20 years. If the west stays for as long as it takes, ukrainian economy does not matter. Let’s see how high the Russian budget deficit will be in 23, I expect a big jump in December, like last year. I doubt very, very much that Russia will keep this up for 20 years.

vita

Imagine being ukrainian male in Ukraine, you hear about the war going for 10-20 more years, which means 10-20 more years of closed borders and inability to travel anywhere outside your country. Must be great morale boost.

JohnnyBeerGr8

yes, and last time when Russia announced 300k mobilization, another 700k men fled the country. I think your calculation is not taking all the variables in to the account.

Last edited 7 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
vita

Not nearly every soldier will become a casualty, not even every 2nd soldier. Most are waiting in the rear without fighting, never been to frontline so far.

If Ukraine starts mobilization of women, it’s game over for them demographically. Millions more (including children/teens) will run away or permanently stay in Europe, because it’s better than ending up dead or mauled.

Tristan

blablabla.

The fact is: both countries have more men than they could equip and/or train.

Give more weapons to Ukraine, help them to train more soldiers, and they will crush Russia. That’s it.

Ppp

Mobilization – taking people out of industry, where there is already a shortage of workers.
They need to be fed, equipped, trained, led – that is, additional people are needed to handle this process.
Russia has many citizens, but in the 21st century you cannot throw several million to the front.
Regards.

Patrick

The information about Novomaiorske is an old one. The Russians have recaptured the northwestern outskirts and pushed the Ukrainians to the other bank of the Shaitanka river.

WTF

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Last edited 7 months ago by Jerome
Max Beckhaus

Apart from what I personally think about this, I would not yet interpret to much into it. PIS hates Russia and any other government will likely understand that it is in their very best interest to support Ukraine. Let’s wait how things look after the election.

Max Beckhaus

Not that it matters much, but Ukrainians expand the breach WEST of Verbove, not east.

Cul-de-sac

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Last edited 7 months ago by Jerome
INEXORABLE

I don’t know if Cul de Sac is french or not but les trolls comme toi on n’en veut pas sur ce forum… Please remove this pro-russian troll . We are here to discuss military topics or strategy pas de conneries mon gars

Andrew

Curious if there has been any hard confirmation of 71st Jager showing up on the Orihiv front that anyone here is aware of. Rochan recently has it along with 80th Air Assault reinforcing the line around Novopokrovka, east of Mala Tokmacha. Though 80th is also supposedly south of Bakhmut – split into two battle groups?

Interesting that 9th corps supposedly has 2 brigades, but 10th corps like 6.

Lev Vuksin

Its because 46th and 82nd are Marun Tactical group and there attached to the 10th corps

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