The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 13th September 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Russian forces advanced towards Synkivka and captured Ukrainian positions at a nearby crossroad. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Berestove
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
- Russian troops stormed Ukrainian defensive positions in Serebryansky forest, and pushed Ukrainian forces further away from Kreminna. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- The enemy made gains north-west of Bakhmut, near the water reservoir. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bohdanivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- The deputy Minister of Defense announced that Ukrainian forces advanced and entered the outskirts of Opytne settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Ukrainian forces launched an attack in the direction of Novomaiorske and reached the edge of the settlement. However, they met fierce resistance and the outcome is unknown. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Ukrainian forces improved their positions near Verbove. (source)
- Russian drone targeted Ukrainian troops south of Robotyne, showing Ukrainian advance in the area. (source)
- Ukrainian tanks advanced towards Russian fortified positions east of Novoprokopivka and reached the nearby treeline. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Crimea & Black Sea (without map)
- Ukrainian Special Forces, led by HUR MO, regained control over Petro Hodovalets and Ukraine drilling platforms, and two jack-up drilling rigs – Tavryda and Syvash located in the Black Sea.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
Our community |
Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
New succinct Meduza update/analysis:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/09/19/liberating-klishchiivka-and-andriivka-was-necessary-though-not-sufficient-to-ukraine-s-success-by-bakhmut
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html This is sad news, but it really does seem like the september 6th missile that hit the market was Ukrainian
May be, maybe not:
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/19/7420459/
NYT says it was a Buk missile (not a S-300). If it is true, then it must be Ukrainian (buk missiles are not repurposed by Russians as they do with S-300).
But let’s wait for the actual proof. NYT can sometimes publish bogus stories.
if it was UKR how could it have happend?
There was a strange MOD report about combat engagements “near Bila Hora”. It’s got to be a mistake as the front is nowhere near.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2023/18-september-russian-forces-conducting-offensive-actions
Budanov does it all: reasonable claims, casual bravado, and BS.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/09/17/an-interview-with-the-head-of-ukraines-defence-intelligence
and is that a praise or critique from you?
It’s exactly what I wrote. I hope you understand that life has more colors than black and white.
well, wanted to read your umami flavor, underlying under regular sweet, bitter, sour, salty…I hope you understand that I am not you and what you write not always mean the same.
You’re reading way too much into one statement. Nonsense can be meant positively. Children do stupid things and that’s not a bad thing. I can imagine what that means in relation to Budanov. Read less statistics about the war and read more about the people who are actually there. Then you also know that B. does a lot of things right, but sometimes also stupid things that are unusual for someone
Everything he does, he does for Ukraine… However, he sometimes risks a lot to annoy the Russians. There is no better candidate for this position, which he accompanies. That’s why the word nonsense is a good choice when it comes to his secret operations. Because every mistake can cost your life.
Unlike Russian officials (and Trumpists), who do only BS.
Wrong. Nobody does “only BS”. Even you write sensible things sometimes.
Alexsandr Solzhenitsyn would like to have a few words with you:
“We know that they [the Russian officials] are lying, they know that they are lying, they even know that we know they are lying, […], but they are still lying. In our country, the lie has become not just moral category, but the pillar industry of this country.”
I like and respect Solzhenitsyn but it is a long shot to quote a deceased public figure and pretend we know what he would do or say today. [What would General De Gaulle do or say today?] Nice (literary) try though.
well, i sensed complaint, since he refrains to talk about russian bs and I wanted to understand from him if UA is allowed to cry,beg or butter up others for help or is it only R that can decide that…Like when Shoigu goes to Kim for arty shells.
we can have another bs to discuss before new article from Jerome is out:
https://t.me/svobodnieslova/2957
If every combat veteran’s certificate has to be issued in triplicate (per soldier/veteran), then I come to almost 250,000 army personnel… Since this order was an administrative act, there was probably a tender. And this stipulated that it was cheaper to order a year’s supply of documents than to place a new order every month.
You live in your own world and turn small things into fundamental discussions, filled with statistics, historical events and crystal ball analyses. The world and especially the Ukraine war is not a ChatGPT. A butterfly effect is more likely than any formula
im happy to have psychologist of your caliber on my side, have no fear you explain to me everything, that i dont need to ask question anymore. Such a blessing.
You constantly try to explain how war works and you always answer your questions yourself, with theses from past wars, mixed with some world politics and analyzes that have no connection to the current situation.
nice interprojection Kay. Anyway, its forum, the point is to create thesis and either discuss, prove or disprove during discourse. There had been established countless times it complex, unpredictable for me, or Russia (scale comparison). That youre blind, biased and not able to remember that, is really not my problem. You just sound like grumpy old man criticizing everything. Enjoy, dude.
Wrong, because such discussions about theses do not occur in the comments on the current situation. This is what the Discord channel on this website or the forum is for. Comments are used to discuss and discuss the current situation. What’s the point of spamming the comments with the same topics over and over again with every new summary.
Or write a blog yourself with your opinions and analyzes of the war. It’s probably for the best, because you constantly see your opinion as the only correct one and misinterpret everything else or see it as an attack on your opinion. You constantly pick apart comments to give your own two cents, but it always ends up in a monologue with no connection to the previous posts.
Wrong, you dont have to write a blog in exchange of posts, youre ignoring base why these area exist and serving its purpose. And again, youre interprojecting saying i constantly see my opinion as only correct, but whatever, this flame is gonna go beyond off topic. You have your truth, keep it dude. Arguments wont work on you anyhow.
I think we can all agree that the last about 10 posts of you two definitely have nothing to do with this war…
I wouldnt mind deleting it. Like you said, personal attacks leads nowhere. There is no exchange of thesis – economical, military, political, geopgraphic, resource wise or even philosophy. Scrap it then.
Update from Perun on Russian defence production: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs&pp=ygUFcGVydW4%3D
He shows that Russian heavy gear is degrading in quality fast. That russian production of new heavy gear did not and likely will not expand passed maxed existing production capabilities in near term. That Russian quantity of heavy gear is likely degrading and that socket stocks are
Sovjet stocks are shrinking fast. Exemption to this is drone production, lancet and sahed, which is ramped up considerably.
Concerning sovjet stocks: It will get harder to renew them over time and nobody knows when the point is reached that it is not worth doing it. The raw numbers seen on satellite images seem enough for a few more years.
So Russia still has some time ramp up production of new
Gear, but there is no sign visible that they are actually doing it.
My note: I doubt that they can in the probable time frame and very much in the necessary numbers. I think somewhere in 24/25 Russia will hit a hard heavy gear wall at current paces. That being said, the development on the drone side of things is very dangerous for Ukraine. Russia may not need the heavy gear.
Both sides have taken drone warfare to terrifying new extremes. They are landmines of the air. Relatively cheap, deployable in high volumes, and exceptionally expensive to counter at scale.
Landmines of the air, a pretty good way to put it. It is really the question what the point in multi million dollar tanks is, if one open hatch is enough to destroy them for basically free. Artillery munitions, drones, mines, all relatively cheap, they make the difference I guess. Artillery munitions still need guns, which can be found and destroyed more easily, drones need nothing.
there is pretty much same info/conclusion:
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/09/17/voina-konchitsia-kogda-v-kazhdoi-seme-kto-to-pokhoronit-muzha-syna-brata
The question is, how the ukrainian side of things looks. The USA is the only one with real stocks in heavy gear, anything else needs to be produced. There will be more old Leos to referbish and throw in. I know that Rheinmetall wants to upscale Fuchs production in Ukraine and the swedish ifv seems to be planed as well. But where is the drone mass production?
well Max, we touched that already, UA allies have 20x times bigger options than Russia, so its all about political decision. It brought “renaissance” of main battle tank and thats not easy to produce at scale in any country (USA, RUS, GER, Korea/s) given the firepower that can harm them when not protected. Everything else can be steadily (slowly and painly) worked on increases – arty ammo, drones
IFV, rockets, even SAM platforms. Airplanes are not easy to produce either, still better than tank; on the other side, no one is giving F35 but F16 and there is stock buffer so far too (pricey- not sure UA can afford 48 and 120 more as replacements for attritioned losses)
IFV, rockets, even SAM platforms and higher grade equip like night vision optics, kevlar, supply trucks etc. Airplanes are not easy to produce either, still better than tank; on the other side, no one is giving F35 but F16 and there is stock buffer so far too (pricey- not sure UA can afford 48 and 120 more as replacements for attritioned losses)
Hope Jerome is all right, no feedback comments on the forum, welcoming our off topic to discord, no message about no update on Sunday, thats something out of his routine habbits.
This is a trend I fear. We may have to accept that Jerome moves on from this.
Do you guys think he is to busy or stressed?
I think this consumes a lot of time. He has been openly frustrated with media using his work without mentioning the source. And it ain’t easy for me that this is developing into the long war I very much feared it would. I can only guess this might work in him aswell. I would also guess that he can see a decline in reach on Twitter and here and there are others that give us… Read more »
My apologies, I spent the last few days in a bed. Recovering now, things should get moving soon again.
Phu… welcome back!
You dont have to make apology for being sick, after all its not a job and we dont hold responsible to deliver on regular basis. I am happy youre ok and on recovery track, Jerome. Its good to have you back.
Thanks.
life happens. Best for you
Kliščijivka has been liberated
I said it would happen after they lost the heights and fortification in July. It just took more time than I thought.
thats the way of life when you initially started as 22nd army against 2nd, not everything can be done within a day, or three…
What are you talking about again? The 22nd Army no longer exists.
Christ lord Kay, 22nd army of the world (AFU) vs 2nd (R), how specific do i need to be to make a intented pun that obvious? Having not parity in many areas, esp. men, where AFU have not much local 3:1 or more advantage, makes progress rather incremental, than fast…
Are you sure that before the war the AFU was the 22nd army in the world. There are already 30 NATO countries that use their synergies together and are therefore a better army. Ukraine may have had well-trained armed forces, but poor material. There were almost none of the good NATO weapons, just old Russian stuff.
https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
last year benchmarked 22nd, this year 15th.
https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/mickaelandrieu/global-fire-power-ranking-2022
its not always easy, as you compare apple to oranges, as you can see, given used metric, Russia kept 2nd place despite terrible year and half performance and losses without replacement.
That’s why I think that the pre-war number 22 is very optimistic, with the intention of combining all NATO armies as 1.
Today of course that’s no longer the case… the armed forces are the AFU 3rd Army (behind the US and UK) and equipment… well with the help of NATO it’s getting better and better.
UK before China, what? And don’t you miss some capabilities here? The Russian military in general is still a lot stronger than Ukraine. I’ll just throw in the nuclear capabilities. 22 refers to the ranking of a think tank that ranks military yearly and is considered the bench mark, forgot the name.
Yes. We always cant understand the capacity of russian authorities to send mobiks after mobiks in a meat grinder just to say they didnt lost a village.
They exchange life of soldier for time. but for what? each month ru get weaker and ukr stronger.
We just have to expect that russia will continue this full offensiv defensiv strategy.
Philipps O’Brien on the naval war. https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-46?r=1tgexa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
This week could be a very big strategic victory in the black sea. Ukraine may establish grain shipment without Russia’s control.
Not yet.
When ukr will be able to add torpedo or rocket on their naval drone, yes they will sunk black see fleat.
For the planes, it will be a little more difficult.
They do not have to sink it, they just have to make it impossible for the Russian fleet to stop ships physically. If Russia’s just goes ahead and sinks a panama flagged ship with grain for china or Africa, well, that won’t help Russia, will it? If they keep on damaging ships and maintenance facilities, there will be no blockade.
Video of the liberation of Andriivka
Apparently, Russians shot at their own soldiers who were trying to surrender. Awful.
Welcome to the Russian Mir.
Basically, the Ukrainians are just doing the Russians a favor. The completely overburdened Russian prison system is finally being cleaned up. This ultimately saves the Russian judiciary enormous costs.
i think theyre still halfway through appx 300k inmates left, and being supplied with new political inmates, but savings are there, although not sure that decisive for the war.
They need place. because after the war, veteran with traumatism will cause lot of troubles.
When is the pretend game gonna stop? Why so many Ukrainians must be sacrificed to play pretend. The Ukrainians can not win, Russians are getting ready to counter NATO directly as direct involvement is ever more likely. They are beeffing up strong. So Ukrainians are completely used to bleed the Russians as much as possible before NATO troops go in. But it’s a suicide mission.
Russia lost more than 12 000 pieces of heavy equipment, around 140 000 men (and around 300 000 injured), they jjust lost 2 important warships, and they have no hope of winning as long as Western countries support Ukraine. Ukrainians do not need NATO troops to crush the Russians. They just need weapons and ammunition. So let us give them more. Way more.
Tristan. You are either delusional or you work for the Ukrainians.
Either way you should be ashamed of yourself. How many Ukrainians need to be slathered, before you stop spreading utter lunacy. You are no better than Zelensky and his circle of neo-*****
Ukraine is done, on the edge of collapse. It’s not going to exist as a state if they continue “fighting”.
Russian bots like you keep repeating “Ukraine is done, on the edge of collapse” since Feb. 24, 2022.
On the other hand, the figures I gave you are coming from OSINT sources. The 12 000 pieces of equipment lost by Russians are the *confirmed* losses, which mean it is a minimal number. The real number is higher. This war is a big, bloody Russian failure.
Tristan,
I am not Russian bot but sure you are Ukrainian one. You are spamming every post countless times, with verbal nonsense salad.
Yes, and since April 2022 Ukraine is on life support, cut it off and it’s dead. If that is not collapse I don’t know what is.
Talk all you want with all the confirmations, you have the best confirmations. But Ukrainians are being slaughtered boy
whats your point? Putin started war, he can call his wardogs off. You can bark as much as you want, still also Russians dying for this nonsense in longest 3 day op this world ever seen. Everything according to plan, i suppose. I hope you enjoy few kopejkas for your work here, Vatnik.
When will Russians stop dying and suffering for imperialism of their leaders? Ukrainians die for their freedom, Russians die for nothing.
Exactly, I feel like there is a pretend game on the Russian side and Russian propaganda expects us to buy it
The Russians should finally get together and start a bourgeois revolution. Screw the consequences and think about your descendants. Otherwise they will have to continue to resign themselves to being fearful, cowardly puppets of the government. Is a Russian really proud of being oppressed?
Honestly, I don’t see much hope for Russia. They’ve been like this for 500 years.
It’s a war, not a game. And it’s war is caused by Russian invasion. Russia can stop the war if they stop the invasion immediately. If they didn’t stop the invasion, they will lose the war.
i think you picked wrong forum pal, generally these pro-russian narratives have no chance here. Go home, Ivan. Natasha is waiting.
could someone cut off this troll? Pretty please.
Find one Ukrainian to come out publicly to back up your ridiculous call for Ukraine to surrender their land and people to Russia, in return for a fake, temporary ‘peace’ (really pause for breath for the Russians before they try again to GENOCIDE the Ukrainian people). Putin is obviously still in denial that Ukrainians met his invading troops with bullets, not flowers and borshch.
Has Andrijivka been liberated?
Probably. No visual proof, though.
German Generalmajor Freuding, leader of the german Ukraine support effort, made a trip to Ukraine and some interessting statements there and in an interview after. 1.) He also doesn´t think that autumn/winter will stop the fighting in the south and that winter will impede fighting more in the north/east. 2.) He was very clear about support “for as long as it takes” until Russia leaves Ukraine, all
of it. Even Olaf Scholz said something like that openly this year. If you factor in that a CDU lead german government would send Taurus yesterday, i feel very safe to say that Germany is commited to Ukrainian victory indefinitly. If you look at the support tracker, that is allready visible. To cite my favorite friend from Moscow: We are just getting started. That is quite a development from some
helmets…
Politically I think we can safely say now, that allmost everybody north and east of the line Britian, Netherlands and Germany is committed to Ukrainian victory. The rest of the EU (looking at you, France) will be dragged along. So the big question of the next year will be, what does “for as long as it takes” mean, when the USA promisses that?
Isn’t the answer obvious? For any nation. As long as 1.) the current head of state is in office, 2.) the next head of state supports it, and 3.) the people vote for politicians that support it. The US isn’t special here. All nations currently supplying aid to Ukraine also have opposition politicians that could change the nation’s course if they take power.
Of those Nations relevant for Ukraines support, the USA is the only one I can come up with, which may have a president soon that may end ‘as long as it takes’. Le Pen in France is in line with Meloni, AFD is so far from power in Germany as anyone can be anywhere. The GB, the Polish, Scandinavia, Baltes, etc., no one has any chance to be elected there. So yes the USA is… Read more »
There could possibly be a contingency plan in the USA as well. Like a binding support contract going through Congress before Trump. In this case a Trump administration would need to convince Congress to reverse it, I guess.
max, can you please stop spamming the comments if you dont have anything new to say. I feel like you just want to tell people whats going on. go write a blog or something.
Before the war, Republicans had a much greater antipathy toward Russia than Democrats. For the Republicans, Russia has always been the enemy from the East. The Democrats have always been in favor of more economic relations with Russia. If the Republicans (not Trump) were in power, they would probably have delivered more tanks and approved F16 jets from the start.
Yes, I do remember the times of Reagan and Bush senior. Great conservative statesmen, but those times are very, very over, aren’t they? Now the republicans put up clowns for presidential elections and the democrats are still soft, if not weak, as being demonstrated today. It is one of those jokes of history, that Putin now hopes for a republican victory.
Except for Trump… The Republicans are a business party, USA first, that’s true. But they are also the bigger warmongers of the two parties. And when it comes to weakening another militancy, they are very consistent, in this case it would be Russia. China is the Republicans’ next big enemy.
And honestly, other than Trump, I would prefer any Republican to what the Democrats currently have to offer. Also in relation to the Ukraine war.
Ramwamsawy, DiSantis, Haley? The first is even worse than Trump concerning Ukraine and the later two surely do not sound better than the Biden administration. The Republicans go down the fidesz, front national, PIS road. We can hope this changes, I do not se it coming. It seems to be a one-way trip.
PIS are critics of Russia and are strongly committed to an EU army, more investment in security and expansion of NATO in the EU Parliament. You are clearly in favor of aid to Ukraine. Front National are not in the government, so they are unimportant for current politics. And Fidesz hasn’t contributed anything to help for two years, so it’s completely left out…
i think you both see same side of the coin. Republicans can go Fidesz populist road, but still can be anti-russian where fidesz is not. PIS is anti-russian, still tighting screws of the goverement over society. Depends how US democratic control mechanisms are strong to sustain the pressure or lean to same way like in PL/HU.
For America’s sake, Trump is the only one who only listens to himself. The other Republicans are also radical, but largely stick to what the party wants. Especially now that Putin is working with North Korea, there is even more reason for Republicans to be even more critical of Russia. You seem to know more about the Republicans’ plan than the Reps themselves…
That is exactly the thing, what does the republican party want? It wanted Trump, and it will want more of those, if you ask me. I did life in the States, got to know my share of normal Americans there. I see the Republicans going down the populist, anti Washington, white supramecy road and I think those conservatives you refer to will get rolled over. Just like von pappen or the AFD
conservatives that founded AFD. There are to many historical examples. I fear and believe the Republicans are lost for the democratic cause. I’ll be happy to be wrong.
The citizens want Trump. The party members only support him so as not to upset his supporters. If Trump does become the Republican nominee, then the Democrats have a pretty good chance of being re-elected. Because Trump has not gained any new supporters since his election defeat, but has lost a third due to his anti-democratic views. Trump shouldn’t be raised higher than he really is.
I don’t where you see that Trump lost voters. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/us/general-election-trump-vs-biden-7383.html
Basically, he is the one who is ultimately to blame for the Republicans being so divided and possibly losing the next election. At some point they drop him and no one talks about him anymore. Trump is a victim of his personality and he does everything to get people talking about him. He knows that this attention is the only thing that will make him a candidate for Rep.
As soon as there is more talk about his opponents, his time is over.
What he achieved economically during his presidency can also be achieved by the other candidates. They’re not stupid, even if Trump portrays them that way. Probably to distract from his own stupidity.
Through his polarization, Trump prevents him from being seen as a failed personality. Because he is nothing else…
You are very right concerning Trump. But to think that with him gone, the problem will be solved,no, I do not see that. If the Republicans ever find it in them again, to have a candidate of the mc Cain, Bush senior Typ, that I can whole heartly respect, it will be a strong sign of hope. I personally doubt it though. Once populism and radicalism snatch a firm hold of a system, they don’t… Read more »
These are internal problems for the USA that they have to deal with themselves. And these problems haven’t just been the case since Trump, he’s just taken the whole thing to the extreme. The two-party system doesn’t work the way we would like. Two parties means for or against, there is nothing in the middle. And the electoral system is also completely wrong.
I think you missed my point. Political sentiment can change in any country. Full stop. Literally all nations supporting Ukraine currently are susceptible to this. The US isn’t special in this regard. Some may be more or less resistant to this change by some combination of term length, power dynamics, and popular support. You asked how support for Ukraine changes. This is how.
Well yes, obviously you are right. But this is a a little to much generalisation even for me. I asked very specifically for the USA and I think I showed why I think the USA is a candidate for this change and the USA is also a very important candidate. So your point does not help me understand to what extend or if at all this will, may or may not happen.
If this war goes on for as long as I fear, Russia´s Black Sea Navy is in for quite some trouble. Those two land based dry docks are 2 of 3 in Sevastopol and that´s that in the Black Sea. They have some floatables, but those are limited in what they can do. If Ukraine ever reaches the Sea of Asov, and i would bet they will, Crimea is in for even a lot more… Read more »
be missed if the Kerch bridge goes down. More importantly, oil transports are covered as valid targets of war, grain ships aren´t. Russia cannot enforce a blockade anyways, and it looks like Ukraine may establish grain exports via ships again. If it can also shut down oil exports via the Black Sea, that would be a hugh strategic victory. Ukraine may not even need to reach the Sea of Asov.
Dude, who are you talking to?
with Max himself
Test
Test
Hm, couldn´t post for a while “wrong nonce”.
Hey Jerome,
Nice summary! However, I don’t consider statements of a deputy minister of defense valid proof of advancements (although I’m sure what he saying is true). Why use video and photo evidence if officals can just state things and you report them as fact? Please back it up with actual proof next time.
Thanks for your work.
In the future would Transnistria be a valid target? Or will Ukraine most likely leave it alone?
Moldova and Ukraine should throw the Russians out. Moldova gets their country back, and Ukraine can have whatever is still usable from the weapons and ammo dumps there.
Nah, I think the current Sun Tsu approach is better – closing the border and shutting it off from the world. The region is experiencing a severe economic downturn. Let them “starve” economically, so they have no other choice than to return to Moldova
567 days they havent done that and R were standing at the gates of Mykolaiv at the time, wouldnt make any sense now (with 1500 russians in there).
I got the impression Ukraine was prepared to take Transnistria back when they claimed Russia was trying to overthrow Moldovan government both Ukraine and Moldova had exercises surrounding the weapon depot in the north of transnistria but I assume the powers that the powers that be intervened and said No Mas. The other problem being that Yes Ukraine could easily over power the forces in
Transnistria but how quickly? If it took too long Russia would definitely capitalize on the delay .
There is no strategic benefit to Ukraine invading Transnistria now or in the future. The territory is worthless to Russia’s war as it has no sea access and requires flying over well-defended Odessa or violating the airspace of Romania (a NATO member). Ukraine loses zero people to keep whatever Russian soldiers are there in place. Those Russians are probably quite happy to be out of the fight.
also would look splendid in R news- bad U invading foreign country and violating its sovereignty, exactly thing U is calling for in R case.
Yes, it would legitimately be a terrible foreign policy move by Ukraine. Transnistria poses no threat at all. Invasion invites retaliation by Russia while simultaneously discouraging the EU and NATO from establishing Ukraine as a member to avoid a world war.
If the Moldovian government ask Ukraine’s help (or someone else) to defend itself against the terrorists that are in Transnistria (which is part of Moldavia, even Russia officially says so), it won’t be an invasion, but a mission of military assistance.
Anyway, if someone has to clear Transnistria of Russia’s presence, it shouldn’t be Ukraine (because they have other things to do) but NATO.
Given what has happened with the LPR and DPR, I wouldn’t put much stock in whatever Russia publicly states. Additionally, Moldova turned down an unofficial Ukrainian offer to liberate Transnistria in April 2022, they believe a reunification may be diplomatically possible in the future. Even though polling suggests that is unlikely. Ukrainian intervention in the region would be a relations blunder.