September 6, 2023

Invasion Day 560 – Summary

The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 6th September 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time). Sloboda Front includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of: Siverskyi Donets overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut…

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The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 6th September 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Novojehorivka

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Fighters of Ukrainian Tsunami Regiment of Lyut Assault Brigade reached the center of Klishchiivka. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Orikhovo-Vasylivka

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

  • Ukrainian troops advanced south of Urozhaine and reached a nearby treeline. (source)
  • Russian sources released information about a possible Ukrainian attack towards Novodonetske and the nearby Novomaiorske. Given the FIRMS data (red crosses), there indeed is some activity.

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • Ukrainian forces made further gains in the vicinity of Verbove. (source)
  • Ukrainian infantry advanced beyond Robotyne and reached a treeline south of the settlement. (source)
  • Russian troops abandoned positions on the southern outskirts of Kamyanske. These positions were later captured by Ukrainian forces. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kherson Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Mentioned Units |

No unit mentioned.

Deployment Map

Our unique map showing units, operational sectors and defense lines

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Max Beckhaus

Concerning artillery ammunition:
– Russia is said to be able to produce 3 million artillery shells a year, I think that was Estonian intelligence.
– The EU wants to reach 1 million shells a year in 24. ( let’s make that 25, because it is the EU)
– The USA plans 1 million for 25 (I tend to believe that)
– Asia has big production capabilities and big stockpiles. So more back filing could

Max Beckhaus

come from there. Korea does this already and Japan is another candidate.
– shell factories from e.g. Rheinmetall in south Africa and Asia will be tapped directly.
– While western stocks a generally pretty depleted, there are supposed to be 4 million cluster ammunitions in the USA.
If the political will is there, the West should be able to roughly match Russia’s quantity advantage in 25

JohnnyBeerGr8

Max, apologies to spoil the thread, but i believe original R base was 1M/y, estimated tripled now and another proclammation R is planning/going to add another 2M on top of that should they succeed (cant tell if R industrial base is able to do that, lets assume it is). Still below 9M/y (of 11M est war total). And then we have barrels to incorporate in that equation.

JohnnyBeerGr8

then you have 11 logistic brigades with 400 trucks per unit, where nearly half was destroyed and Army started to use civil trucks. Nationwide is estimated 65k trucks produced in 2022 (down from 70k in 2021 and could be subject of sanction or also redistribution resources to tanks, armored vehicles), that is being used to “sustain” national commodities distribution and army together.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Then we have Himars/Shadow storm factor, increasing number of smaller ammunition depots and increasing estimated trips one fully loaded truck can take plus, one truck can take full ammo load, but then wont take food, water other equip, you have to then deliver otherwise (via armored, helicopters or personal vehicles?) as substitute. They shortened front by 600km, that helped.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Then you have fuel cistern chapter, that is different than Squared trucks for goods/ammo. One story came up recently, they brought 2 fuel cisterns in to Sevastopol for civilans and indicating problems for civilian use. Could be nothing, could be deeper issue.

Max Beckhaus

I don’t see where you ruined it…? I like information influx. If Russia reaches 5 million by 25, Ukraine will still be fine with let’s say 3 million. They had to go thru much, much worse factors than 5 to 3. The precision advantage will destroy a lot of that ammunition before it reaches the barrel and the question is if Russia can support it’s barrel advantage and barrel use.

Max Beckhaus

But all of this is not my point, my point is that Ukraine will very likely be in the same league as Russia concerning quantity and very likely be still superior in quality.

JohnnyBeerGr8

and my point was, its not all about ammo productions, but logistic too. For numbers wise, i only have Shoigu statement (and we know how they lie or exaggerate) they trippled regular ammo; remaining 2M can be bad translation from western media (arcticles differs from increasing to 2M or add 2M to existing), so unless confirmed otherwise, safe range is 2-3M/y, still falls short consumption wise.

Max Beckhaus

Oh, if you want to talk details, there is always more. Like that Russia is supposed to have a tire problem, meaning they are used till they do not have enough Profil left for the mud season. Russia definitely has logistical issues, but anything that can be solved by buying it for yuan… So I think trucks and tires can and will be replaced, but shells and barrels are harder to come by.

Max Beckhaus

I repeat myself here, but Russia is no industrial nation anymore, they will have big troubles building up new production lines. It is one thing to max out existing production line by letting them run 24/7, it is a completely different story to build new ones. Considering that even western company’s have a one year lead time, I would be very, very sceptical for Russia to increase anything well

Max Beckhaus

beyond doubling up anything anytime soon. Barrels may still be pulled out of storage, but probably not for long anymore. And then there is the issue of the artilleryman being killed by let’s say himars or cluster hits.

JohnnyBeerGr8

i only wanted to add another layers to Ammo production, cause its a complex lifecycle from ammo being made in factory (like you said its not easy to build one, thats same for West too) to ammo round being delivered to combat unit and there are x variations that could harm the cycle.

JohnnyBeerGr8

im not arguing with you, in fact i share the view. Russia is not USSR, where all dominion country focused on specific part of industry and could aggregate the R industrial base. R is on its own, has limited capabilities- financially, industrially, technically. manpower skill or demographic population curve.

JohnnyBeerGr8

for Krasnopol precision munition, pre-war calculation estimation dozens thousand in stock,cant find production numbers, helluwa expensive. It has short range then western system 16-20km, plus seem need to have laser guide, latest version estimated glonnas and independent of laser. Given problems Russia has building sophisticated weaponry, should not create AFU life harder than it already is in th

Max Beckhaus

Ukraine, the west allready has a big advantage in precision munitions and it is scaling up the production just as hard. There is no conceivable way how Russia can keep up here. The Lance system is hurting Ukraines artillery though.

Max Beckhaus

In any case, Russia went from a hugh advantage in the artillery war to an even match up and I don’t see how they can change that trend.

Max Beckhaus

Let me here what you guys think of a very brief history of this war so far:
Russia attacked with a flawed plan based on highly flawed assumptions and lost a lot of combat power, failed Kiev campaign. It followed this up with the flawed assumption that a change of attack plan without mobilization would do the trick. This has lead to more land lost, Kharkov and a change to defensive thinking

Max Beckhaus

, mobilization and finally the Kherson retreat. The subsequent winter offensive with the mobilized personal failed and the following ukrainian counteroffensive has troubles to overcome well prepared defenses as well to date.
The war plays out as a artillery slug fest, where western precision systems seem to bring Ukraine the upper hand slowly and diminishing returns from tanks and planes while

Max Beckhaus

drones are on the rise.
Strategically the west failed to isolate Russia politally and sanctions will not have a decisive but probably an attritional role.
Decisive for the war will very likely be if Russia can claw it’s way back concerning the counter artillery war, and or conserve it’s quantity advantage in munitions, for example with failing western support by the USA from 25 on.

Triglav

I’m worried the Russians are aware of this and will soon receive North Korean artillery. NK has huge supplies and a big weapons industry. The current Ukrainian artillery superiority could end soon

Tristan

I am not too worried about NK. The quality of their weapons and ammunition is far below average, to the point they are almost useless.

And if NK helps Russia, this may convince SK to help Ukraine, which would be a huge boost.

Patrick
Tristan

It’s not excellent. It’s only average. They don’t see the bigger picture. They don’t understand what Ukrainians are trying to do around Bakhmut (no, they don’t want Russian to leave the city, quite the contrary), and their advice to concentrate on the Tokmak axis (where Russia just send all their VDV reserve) isn’t good: Ukrainians are right to exploit Russian weaknesses elsewhere.

JohnnyBeerGr8

i was going to do write similar conclusion based on different arguments, while eg ISW or War on the Rocks can point out specific units, reserve commitment, rotation, tactics etc. and focus on some detail, this article is still running on the surface. I cant comment on grander scale, but seem, the attrit/eroding R anywhere and then commit to exploit will be next 9 months approach.

Patrick

The ‘bigger picture’ is about whether the objectives of the c-offensive are met and if not, what should be done to achieve them. This is what the article is about.

Max Beckhaus

Objectives change, no plan or objective survives enemy contact for long. I think Ukraine is drawing the right conclusion and has put attrition as top objective. The time will come for the meltipols etc., but very likely not this year.

Tristan

No, that is the small picture. The bigger picture is how to destroy the Russian army.

Patrick

Geez it’s a regular c-offensive update not an article about how to destroy the Russian army…

Tristan

Sure. But understanding Ukraine’s grand strategy is the key to properly evaluate current counter-offensive progress.

Tristan

Ukraine liberated gaz rigs near Crimea.

Jerome might have to add a new map: Crimea front :p

JohnnyBeerGr8

if i am not mistaken, they´ve been fighting and trading off these for more than 8 months, if that stays (not sure if it can be destroyed by kalibr or glided FAB, or retaken back) that could be sign of R capabilities to control the sea shrinking…interesting.

JohnnyBeerGr8

What do you guys think about Opytne, capitalizing localized counterattack to gain some ground back with “minimal” cost due to the local weakness and relieve Avdiivka a bit, cause its hard to imagine where the vector should go after as Donetsk is natural obstacle that AFU cannot commit to conquer (not even Tokmak 10 times smaller)

Tristan

I think we will see more and more of this little cracklings in the Russian defense (like in Opytne). The more Russian forces are stretched, the more vulnerable they are.

The Ukrainians should continue those little pushes here and there to exploit these cracklings, and fix Russian forces.

INEXORABLE

These are still force recon tactics, just to check and stretch russians everywhere to spot the weakest (b)reachable defense line

Patrick

I think Ukraine is making gains where it can and not necessarily where it wants it most (the real objectives are the South and the ‘Bakhmut fortress’). I don’t see any strategy value in taking Opytne. However any advance is a morale booster. The same applies to the Russians. 

Max Beckhaus

Well, actually the situation around avdiivka looked a lot like Bakhmut before its fall. I think it has a worth to have more room to give again. Russia may mobilize more again and may be ready to throw more at the next fortress… For me any filed around avdiivkais worth it.

Max Beckhaus

Field

JohnnyBeerGr8

but in south they still have heights to take, since Robotyne, Verbove and Novoprokopivka is still under the hills (theyre not high high, still advantaging Russians and second line of trenches uphill)

Patrick

Correct – and I don’t blame them for trying their luck elsewhere. They are in need of some kind of victories. Anything will do, including the ‘liberation’ of oil rigs and similar PR stunts.

JohnnyBeerGr8

im not sure they have to, both UA and R are commited to long war, attrition-wise nonetheless. Its now job of western politicians to explain that to their voters, that its a security matter and will be as long as it takes. Then both UA and R will play the card “im exhausted, had enough, i give up”. Ofc West defining its strategy goals,planning and enablers for UA in advance wouldnt hurt too.

Max Beckhaus

The goal must be to make Crimea untenable for Russia, that will force them to the negotiation table or make them retreat eventually and the war will be lost that point, no matter how long they keep fighting .Taking Donetsk or luhanks city seems out of the question to me.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Dont know Max, probably seen too many videos admitting that losing Crimea might push Putin to mobilize society to total war cause might raise sentiment as one of the outcomes. I know seem unlikely cause russian society is largely apathetic and not committed to the regime (Prighozhin stunt), still we would have to see when time comes…

JohnnyBeerGr8

Reading Mordichev or Putin statements, Russia is counting with fall of western democracies and is willing to sit this one out for very long, even losing in this phase feeding their paranoia and thesis of that that theyre destined, wouldnt be bad to show some western politicians counting on returning to trade with Russia and adjust our policies.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Dont get me wrong, i still count that Russia have to withdraw from UA, like they did in Afg 89. All im just saying, they will be looking for retribution payback, revanshism and this should not be forgotten.

Max Beckhaus

Russia is already a revanchist power. They were before they got Crimea, they will still be if they get more and they will be if they lose Crimea again. Apeasment does not work and doesn’t change anything. The only thing that changes is, that Russia either has Crimea as a gigantic attack and black sea control platform for the next round, or it won’t. There is no conceivable way to make Russia

Max Beckhaus

To change that. In Germany flattening it completely and marching to Berlin worked and we could try giving them Ukraine, or everything to the Elbe again. One more ukrainian oblast or less doesn’t change a thing. Russia will have to change a lot on its own, and if there is a tiny chance that this war will change something to the better in Russia, it definitely has to lose it. Apeasment will just

Max Beckhaus

Make it worse or at best, no bit better. If you didn’t learn this yet, you should go back to history, Germany, or rethink what happened in 2014 and there after. Apeasment does not work. Letting them have anything because it may make them mad does not work. They are mad already.

Max Beckhaus

Even the Americans start falling for the German angst. Stop listening to their bullshit. Yes, they fear losing Crimea, because it will make them look like the dumb f. they are and it just may change Russia for the better. This freaking German angst even starts taking over the USA.

JohnnyBeerGr8

sometimes i am not sure if youre talking to me, or readers in general, cause we had couple opinion exchanges and you should probably remember, where i stand on this. I already know in principle appeasement does not work or for sake of RA, it should decisively lose on the battlefield.

JohnnyBeerGr8

sometimes i am not sure if youre talking to me, or readers in general, cause we had couple opinion exchanges and you should probably remember, where i stand on this.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Cant reply to you, filter wont let me. You dont have to convince me, we´ve been through that in previous thread.

Kay

You probably have points 4 and 5 of the discussion rules activated

Noelle

nope. They passed the Robotyne and took part of the reinforced hills. And on the Verbove direction forward elements are already within ‘the 2nd line’ (actually in this place there is no ‘2nd line’ – trenches and bunkers converges into one line of fortification (probably) because of vicinity of the town.
In these fragment of the front being ‘downhill’ is not actually that bad (better cover).

JohnnyBeerGr8

yes, youre right and i have misread the map. Robotyne is up the hill and also southwest of Verbove UAF reached uphill and can approach southern vector from east.

Triglav

I know that the “global south” doesn’t want to get involved in or care about a far-away European war, but I’m really disappointed that democracies like Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Indonesia and India left Ukraine behind and pursue friendly relations with an openly imperialistic dictatorship that calls itself anti-imperialist. I’m especially disappointed by Lula

Max Beckhaus

The thing is, that most of this countries perceive the West as openly imperialistic as well. It is hard to argue that historically and the Iraq war was a US, British imperialistic war. If you do not go by the rules yourself, why should anybody jump to your help? That being said, if I would live in one of those countries, I would be ashamed to let Ukrainians down in the face of imperialism.

Max Beckhaus

I can only guess that most see this as an imperial struggle of Russia and the west and Ukraine as a puppet.

Kay

Nonsense… Everyone knows that this is a war between Russia and Ukraine alone. Hence the final agreement to ensure that all countries respect state integrity… In the case of the G20, it is simply the case that most countries that do not belong to NATO do not feel valued enough and have their own problems. Ukraine is far too far away to be directly affected.

Kay

They have better business relations with Russia than with the so-called West. Thanks to its free grain deliveries, its extremely cheap oil and gas and its military equipment exports, Russia has more supporters among these countries than the West. The simple fact is that the countries’ relationship with Ukraine is non-existent, unlike the relationship with Russia.

Kay

The West has never been interested in the fact that Yemen has been at war for years. This has absolutely nothing to do with Iraq and imperialism.

Kay

It’s not that Russia is fighting this war, it’s that they don’t care about Ukraine…

Max Beckhaus

See Indonesian Robb’s comment. Q. E. D.
Of course it has to do with western imperialism, and that it is far away. Not their problem and no friends of them in any case.

Indonesian Robb

Also it’s not EU nor Ukraine will help Indonesia or other south countries if US invade us in the future.

Max Beckhaus

That is true, because we are bound to them for the good and sadly for the bad. At least concerning Iraq some of the EU stayed out of it. Now I would never argue for Indonesia to get directly involved. What I personally find very hard to swallow is that Brasil won’t even sell their cheetahs or medivacs. If Indonesia or Brasil really can’t see the difference between Ukraines liberation war and

Max Beckhaus

The EU compared to Russian imperialism, It really feels like all hope is lost.

Tristan

The state of the war, by Prof. Timothy Snyder

https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-war

JohnnyBeerGr8
Max Beckhaus

Budanov identifies mines and! mass kamikaze drones as problems for the offensive and spreads the word that it will continue thru winter… Some analysts and the us secret service spread this word also.
Mass shades and mass lancets, Russia is adapting successfully. The drone war is not decided, yet.
Concerning the winter, the idea seems to be that the current small infantry attacks stay viable

Patrick

While many problems remain, Russia has also resurrected its electronic warfare assets
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russians-are-getting-better-learning

Noelle

let’s hope that they (RU) will keep that tempo of learning&adapting.

More seriously – it’s a serious problem in the upper echelon (even ignoring the corruption etc.) but often not within lower levels units and (mostly, though it’s mixed bag) commanders. And there is a serious problem of hardware and personnel training ofc. That’s why a lot of ‘descriptions’ of RUAF are so misleading.

JohnnyBeerGr8

no worries, war isnt gonna go away anywhere anytime soon. Take some time to rest and see you later.

Coerenza

I have read most of your comments. In my opinion the fundamental fact is not being grasped: the stalemate of the fronts over the last year, after Kherson the front moved just a few km2 per week (R occupied 100k Ukrainian km2). Furthermore, with drones and satellites, any surprise seems to have disappeared from the battlefield. It seems to me that Bakmut and Robotine are just a waste of human live.

Coerenza

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/08/russia-ukraine-defense-counteroffensive/

More than the article, I recommend the graph… it helps to put the last year of the war into perspective.

Max Beckhaus

Not a year, 10 months, but I would guess that everybody is painfully aware of this fact. We happen to look on those maps bi daily, er twice a week now. If you call dying for the existence and freedom of your people and country a waste of life, fine. Just know that if everybody would have gone by this sentiment, nobody would be free today. Why Russian think it is worth dying for an… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

Stupidity and the destruction of a country is indeed beyond me and calling it a waste is putting it nicely.

JohnnyBeerGr8

many people said that before: If Russia stops fighting, war is over, If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine is over. There is no other way, its not a football match, where they scored a draw and divide points, see graphs how many corners, fouls, cards, possession each of the team made. Statistic helps you to score trend, still wont help you to cover the story of existence futile and crapy war.

Kay

By now everyone should know that the Russians have established themselves and cannot be driven out using conventional means. In this respect, such articles are old news. What the UKR is doing is preventing the RUS from conquering even more land, which they have been successfully doing for half a year (except for Bakhmuth).

Kay

The counteroffensive is a means to an end that results from a successful defense. It would be foolish for the UKR not to want to win back any land when the RUS are not in attack mode.

Tristan

Ukraine’s goal is the liberation of all territories, not just “a successful defense”.

Current ukrainian’s counteroffensive is a step toward this goal (hopefully a big step).

Kay

I hope you’re right… Unfortunately, at the moment it doesn’t look like this goal can be achieved on the battlefield.

Max Beckhaus

It looks like this goal can not be achieved now. We do not know this concerning the future. We also know that Russia is degrading in quality and quantity and we know that Ukraine is still upgrading in quality and will be in quantity at least concerning munitions.

Max Beckhaus

We also know that Russia gained land in 22 and Ukraine gained few in 23, so the trend is pretty much Ukraines friend across the board. The exemption to this is the quality and quantity of infantry. Both are degrading here in quality and the quantity is an unknown, mainly a political but also logistical problem.

Patrick

I find it very difficult to define trends. I would call 2022 the year of shattered illusions for Russia and 2023 seems to be the year of stabilization (to be revisited in Dec). On the infantry, I think it will play an increasingly important role particularly if it becomes clear that the ATACMS, Abrams and F16 can’t drastically change the battlefield situation.

Max Beckhaus

Yes, we see a pivot from big expensive systems to smaller units, drones, infantry, etc. Abrams and atacms are basically at work already, leopards and shadow storm/scalp. The f16s will have an impact in their niche, but the war is won on artillery, drones and infantry and the match up is basically quality versus quantity here.

nrjrjrjdjdjsi

I expect only ATACMS to play any significant role if enough are sent and supply remains steady. The rest are token forces, enough maybe if concentrated on a single vector to achieve limited breakthrough. Not war-winning.

Noelle

the singular point of overwhelming pressure (even in a short term) is the only thing you need in such situation. Both sides are perfectly aware about this (which is clear from again increased ‘peace ideas’ and nuclear babbling). Will they succeed in the circumstances present? I have no idea.

nrjrjrjdjdjsi

I’m not understanding your point. Minor tactical successes happen nearly every week and haven’t yet pushed the war closer to a close. A steady supply of ATACMS has strong potential to severely disrupt Russian supply and response and pave the way for more significant moves in the future. Russia being forced to pull supply, command, and air assets further back only helps Ukraine.

Patrick

Volume of goods unloaded at Russia’s three largest container ports almost at pre-war level:
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-port-activity-world-trade-kiel-think-tank-china-2023-9?r=US&IR=T

Max Beckhaus

Yes, a reason why the Rubel is falling. Looks like the value of the Russian economy will have a deep dent in dollar or yuan. Russia won’t be able to afford the pre war import at the current exchange rate for long. Lending money from China will also get ugly at current interest rates and the inflation pressure won’t go away either. Russia is getting poorer fast.

Triglav

Perhaps Ukrainian drones should target Russian ports as well, afterall Russia has no problems attacking “military-grade” grain silos in Izmail and Odessa

Max Beckhaus

Oil tankers, tanks etc., yes, that is even covered by international laws of war. Destroying Russian grain terminals won’t make anything better, really, just even worse. Like with the clima crisis, the south will pay the highest price for that and the war won’t be over any second quicker.

Noelle

but, you know… accidents happens. And taking into account the shit state of the ‘shadow fleet’ which Russia uses (both ships and the crews) they can (and will) happen even without helping ‘invisible hand’.

Max Beckhaus

I doubt that it was the west, which had that idea. In general we should focus more on supporting Ukraine in what they think they need, it is very likely that this is the most efficient way. What I don’t understand is the Taiwan theater discussion. This would be a heavily navy and air focused war, so just the stuff Ukraine does not need or get. The argument the US could support both campaigns seems

Max Beckhaus

flawed to me. That being said, Europe definitely has to get it’s shit together and this is being done. Military spending including aid to Ukraine is going thru the roof, albeit at European standards. There is still a lot to be done, but what I gather, Europe will outproduce the USA in artillery shells easily. That is something.

Max Beckhaus

Ups, this should have been an answer to something way down there…

san4es

Ridiculous, but that’s what Trump wants: Europe should take over the conflict in Ukraine completely

Max Beckhaus

What si ridiculous?

JohnnyBeerGr8

I dont like what if, neither am i US General, but in all wars US was, there was huge deployment from 100k to over 500k (korea, vietnam, 1st gulf, Iraqi, Afg), so deploying similar numbers on Taiwan, Japan, Philipines (if they join), will put serious constrain on land forces and then hypot. R says, USA is busy, lets invade baltic states. They wont be able to commit same forces in EU.

JohnnyBeerGr8

if they have in active duty 1,4M, thats similar issue we identified with R, although arguably 3M pool of reservist would be reachable more and more qualified than on R side. Still feeeding logistically 2 half mil armies on different side of the world, would be tremendous task, not even thinking about cost (eg 300M dollars/day for 100k US deployment in afghani war and associated cost).

san4es

Ridiculous how you and Trump agree on the issue of who will pay for Ukraine

Max Beckhaus

Word.

san4es

Funny

Max Beckhaus

Just because he is Trump, doesn’t mean he can’t be right in something. 😁 In Germany we say: Even a blind chicken finds a corn every once in a while…

san4es

All that remains is to convince the entire population of Europe that they should support Ukraine

JohnnyBeerGr8

well, yes, its better than nothing, but it took a direct attack from Russia, to slowly shift financing back to ugly bad non-ecologic weapon producers, because they didnt fit in to green deal or any other shiny sunny initiative and banks were not willing to back them up, aside of countries below 2% GDP funding like nothing can happen. Ironic. Still far from ideal, cause its politic matter.

Max Beckhaus

Ah, you want to go down that road again? Well yes, we actually used the peace time to be peaceful instead of running around wasting money and many many life’s and political capital with senseless imperial wars. I take a shiny green deal anytime over that. And yes Jerome, I know, discord.

Max Beckhaus

It is one thing to be ready when you need it, like now, it is a completely different thing to use it to destroy and kill senselessly… If you look from the south, Iraq and Ukraine look pretty similar. And the USA probably still killed more Iraqis than Russia killed ukrainians.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I understand we have different point of view, I accepted that. My take is and always was, world was never safe place and it was capital understatement that wir schaffen das in everything everywhere. Si vis pacem, para bellum – it never gets old.

JohnnyBeerGr8

if you prefer someone younger: Hence it comes that all armed prophets have been victorious, and all unarmed prophets have been destroyed.

— Niccoli Machiavelli

Max Beckhaus

Younger, funny… Well, well, do not get me wrong, it was a big mistake to be unprepared for this. In fact even the US wasn’t prepared, ammunition, that being said, Europes mistakes get dwarfed by the USA. We would be in a much better political situation now, if the USA would have gone for peace instead of imperialism and we could have isolated Russia a lot more. Germany and the USA are definitely

Max Beckhaus

The f ups of the last 30 years concerning security geopolitics representing opposite sides of the the mistakes. The difference is, the USA has about half a million Iraqis and a good portion of Syrian deaths on their counter, while Germany has to lift a good portion of the ukrainian suffering. At least we are playing catch up and when all is said and done, I will be damned if Ukraine will still

Max Beckhaus

Point at us.

JohnnyBeerGr8

yeah, I share your pain. History webbing. Germany centuries strong military nation shade of itself due to WW2 history, similar UK, fallen (almost bankrupt after ww2) dominion. USA taking revenge of former supported dictator, after Iraq-Iran and 1st Gulf war where they didnt top him over. Arabian Spring, etc. World is asynchronous, somewhat fragile stability or functional instability.

Max Beckhaus

Or let me put it like that: At least we wanted peace, we just forgot to prepare. I don’t see when the USA actually wanted peace. Unsurprisingly you are prepared for war and you seem to want it.

JohnnyBeerGr8

not sure you insinuate me wanting a war. First, id prefer to demonstrate to potential attacker im not weak and attack would come with risk and cost, to discourage him. Second, if still get attacked, that i have means to defend myself, that i have a chance of survival. We are past first, adapting to second.

JohnnyBeerGr8

one would also argue, that historically there a various colors of the spectrum, incl. Germans financing Lenin, USSR kicked out from previous UN iteration for invading Finland in 39, Iron Courtain after 45, proxy wars till 89 (holding off communism doctrine). Thats the never ending discussion if we could do more on that scale than we do now and its individual choice for each person to make.

Max Beckhaus

No, I insinuate that preparing for war leads to the side effect of being likely to start a war. I also hope you do not believe that Machiavellism is a great idea. Sometimes it seems that the USA thinks just that. At least I do not see that peace is the ultimate goal or even a goal at all of US foreign policy and it hasn’t been since WW2.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I wanted to make a point, that keeping a weapon for own protection doesnt make you a less pacifist- or shall i put it a way “hope for the best, be prepared for the worse”, hence the saying he made is nice demonstration of it. Or maybe real-politik, in a sense (but not Ost politik).

JohnnyBeerGr8

I wont be able to discuss USA with you. For me, what Russia does in Ukraine is evil, with higher aspirations- as such, i hope it will be stopped. USA may be problematic democracy with questionable decisions along way, still, without them Europe might be still scorched earth after WW2 (and their support in WW1), plus Marshal plan and you cant take off that from your criticism. Alternatives? CHN?

JohnnyBeerGr8

It was Europe, that brought 2 WWs, and with USA help, we can be happy, that over 80 years, there wasnt military conflict betwen big 3 (UK, GER, FR) like there was within the empires or republics for ages in the past. So there is that. If you want to accuse them they got filthy rich because they didn´t have war on their soil and could become superpower, still wouldn´t praise the lengths they took.

Max Beckhaus

If a gun in the pocket and the hand stretched out for peace is your point, then Ostpolitik would actually be a good example. It’s not like west Germany wasn’t prepared back in those days. Otherwise those Leopards and cheetahs wouldn’t be prowling out there. Back to my point: Keeping a weapon for your own protection somehow leads to what, 30k gunshot victims a year in the USA? Not far off from

Max Beckhaus

Russian and Ukrainian losses in this war. A weapon in your pocket tends to go off…

JohnnyBeerGr8

Max, i understand your anti-american sentiment, still, what are your alternatives in this imperfect world? World became complex, technology, ideology, ecology, multipolar. Feels like you would prefer to ignore a path that set a grounds for present and almost magically jump in to the future when everything is sorted out. Id still stick with degraded West then degraded Russia or CHN, sorry.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I think youre getting away from the weapon wise alternatives- it was appeasement of the western county, military weak also to give Germany concessions in the eve of EU part of WW2 in 1939 that could be perceived as similar to what happened in 2008, 2014 and later. You cant fight aggressor with flowers or in pregnancy uniforms.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Concerning Leos, same issue we encountered with Russia or USA, problem is not, that there had been made 2500 Leos tanks from different era (even cold war era) and there is no stockpile. Issue is, that neither o the country can produce tanks in scale (like 3 a month) and in hot conflict would not be able to mass produce them, given the firepower that is threatening tanks- lack past investment

JohnnyBeerGr8

And to counter your argument side effects likely to start war, you have all Cold War era history at hand where heavily armed opponents shared common borders and never invaded, not meaning there were not a crisis, like a Cuban one, still, the amount of soldier compared to present was tremendous. So where there is a will, there is way too.

JohnnyBeerGr8

and there is another parallel with Israel, hadnt been heavily armed, it wouldn´t exist anymore and doesnt really matter if youre pro-israeli or against, still have to take it in your equation.

Max Beckhaus

Anti American? No, no, no, not at all, where would we be without the USA? I am just very, very concerned with the path the USA is on. The sentiment is more that of a good friend going down a path that feels like a dead end. Actually I tend to believe that the necessary renewal might not come without a bang. Deterence is absolutely necessary, we can agree on that. Isreal is also a… Read more »

Max Beckhaus

Unnecessary offensive wars. Perceived strength and perceived weakens leads to wars, see also Russia in 2022. My point is concerning deterence and peace, go for balance of power, not dominance, because the later makes wars more likely and second, if you want the rule of law, stick by it yourself. The USA is going for dominance and doesn’t stick to the rules in ‘pretends’ to defend.

Max Beckhaus

The cold war worked more or less, because there was a balance of power.

Max Beckhaus

And yes, apeasment dies not work, if you do not stick by the rules, you have to feel the consequences.

san4es

Exactly. Both sides knew exactly what their limits were and didn’t try to cross them. Hungary-56 and Czechoslovakia-68 illustrate this fact well. That’s the only reason we got such a long peace after WW2.

JohnnyBeerGr8

why do i sense catch here? Are you implying that UA falls in R sphere of influence and we should leave it just like we do with any other genocide in africa? Because for once, third is a charm and UA have things HUN or CSVK didnt have at that time and could mean, times are finally changing and in some areas its not 19th or 20th century.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I wonder if India and China know their limits when they share and argue about 3000km of common borders or when China is trying to get Manchuria or Inner Mongolia back from Russia or how spheres of influence would work if they´re implied by armed forces.

JohnnyBeerGr8

and youre leaving one aspect out, its the UN proclamation part USSR signed and agreed on new set of principles that taking land by force is not acceptable. Russia proclaiming 4 UA regions to theirs went off from diplomacy and ideology/money shift to thug biz mugging everyone else. In 68 and 89 they could pretend they were invited, here they cant.

san4es

For eight years, Ukraine has been trying to force it to fulfil the Minsk agreements. If they had been implemented, there would have been no war

JohnnyBeerGr8

there you go and its showing off its horns 🙂 If Russia wouldnt import its people to Donbas and start local revolution, there wouldnt be any minsk1 or 2 implied by FR/GER and Russia forcing UA to obey just to delay inevitable, russian revanshism and imperialism.

san4es

The same can be said about the Maidan. It is only a matter of propaganda and belief. The only thing that will keep the peace is realpolitik and balance of power. That’s exactly what John Mearsheimer and Richard Haass are talking about

san4es

The example doesn’t fit. If we were talking about Bhutan, Nepal or Bangladesh, then we could apply the notion of spheres of influence

san4es

Cuba falls within the US sphere of interest? And Venezuela? And Nicaragua? All of Latin America? The Middle East?

JohnnyBeerGr8

So Cuba was invaded by USAF or CIA driven insurgents in 62 and is Cuba now pro-USA puppet even USSR does not exist anymore? I know what youre trying to achieve, but wont work. You can point out every single mistake USA did, still wouldnt change a fact Russia is not democratic thug mafia state and they should get off from Ukraine.

san4es

Oh, yes, a world based on values. Except that’s a load of bollocks, my friend. The reality is that there are states with their own interests. And what you call U.S. mistakes are really just attempts to protect their interests.

JohnnyBeerGr8

well, youre pushing me to statement i never made, in fact i recognize the interest thing, i merely am happy, that for once interest comes with principle in UA case. I said above (probably missed it), that world is imperfect and many other things with that too. Minsk agreement was bollocks, implied by green muziki on vacation with tanks, also Crimea suffered a lot, hence reason to invade it.. ,)

san4es

Once again – war is a monstrous disaster for the RF. It was quite enough for the top of the country to continue supplying oil and gas to the West and spend money and teach children there. It was not in the interests of the country at all, but it was so. Do you think they needed this war?

Max Beckhaus

There is a pretty simple rule: Do not get involved in internal affairs. Maidan was a Ukrainian Revolution, none of Russias business. Just like Iraq, Cuba, Afghanistan, etc. pp. More over, it simple does not work.
States go by their interests? Like it is in Russia’s interest to wage this war? States go by the interests of their leaders and countries as people bear the responsibility for their

Max Beckhaus

Leaders. Spheres of influence are not set in stone. Cuba ain’t part of the USA just as Ukraine ain’t part of Russia s. Things change and neighbours should learn to live with it and changing it by force mostly does not work. It is a waste of time and usually just weakens the power that things it could change something. Imperialism is a dead end, if humanity wants do develop anywhere.

san4es

These are all beautiful words. But reality is still reality. The neo-colonialism of the West still thrives. Now only under the slogan of energy transition. Right now we see the struggle for Africa unfolding. The confrontation between the US and China is nothing less than an imperialist struggle

JohnnyBeerGr8

ok, then we agree on principle and we differ in implication scale how such power and responsibility is being applied. Im worried about path USA can take too, either corporate fascism, populism ala Orban, isolationism…there is plenty of “could go wrong” from Arsenal of Democracy in 45. We need to bear in mind, US administration is full of people that lived Cold Era, with good or bad mindset.

Max Beckhaus

Democracies get usually destroyed from the inside. Judging from German history with this, the USA is on a pretty damn good way. Especially I do not see how the republicans will ever get out of the corner they got stuck in. There is no way to win elections out of this corner in the medium term without destroying democratic foundations further. It is a one-way trip and I don’t see how this can end

Max Beckhaus

Without a bang. The signs are obvious and on the wall. Sooner or later the white supremacists will have to start shooting, if they want power to stay with them.

Max Beckhaus

Apropos ‘Russia is losing the artillery war.’: Ukraine is reporting in September a new level of artillery system destruction. Putting roughly a third on top of the record month of August 23.

Max Beckhaus

Europe overtook the USA in aid, even concerning short term aid, actually the EU alone does that. Germany is on pair in relative bilateral aid with Poland now and has promised more than half of what the USA promised alone. Europe is picking up the ball. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

Max Beckhaus

Putin can hope for trump , but I don’t believe even that will help enough. The SPD with Schröder in Germany is actually the best government for Russia. If the next one is CDU lead… There are still enough here that remember how it feels when a third of the country is part of the Russian sphere. We just may find a new “Niemals wieder” here.

Kay

Trump has a lot of supporters among Republicans. Most undecided Republicans who oppose Trump and virtually all Democrats will vote for Biden. That’s why I think he has the majority. Biden is not popular either, but he is still a better evil than Trump.

Max Beckhaus

Deine Worte in Gottes Ohr! But as the wise Noelle rightly reiterates. Better not count on something we do not know nore control.

Triglav

I’m really glad that the Ukrainian drones are finally also targeting Russian electronics factories (https://t.me/RVvoenkor/52740) – if they reach the tank and drone factories then Russia will get a taste of their own medicine 😉

Max Sillyhouse

i love how the tristans and beckhauses here, which tell us since 500 days “tomorrow russia will be destroyed”, always have new excuses why they were wrong and new silly hopes that selenski and the us democrats and the german green party will win this war in the next seconds … . When soon russia will celebrate the victory, i will laugh so much about you …

JohnnyBeerGr8

yes, your victory is exactly minus 40k square km closer than it was year ago. Well done! Keep laughing.

pogo

Max Sillyhouse
What will be a victory for Russia? Because I still haven’t understood it . Please explain it for me.

Max Beckhaus

Destroying Ukraine without getting Russia destroyed? That is the only

Max Beckhaus

One that I can come up with, which fits the deeds.

Tristan

An article worth reading:

The second front, by Prof. Françoise Thom

JohnnyBeerGr8

had ambiguous feeling when reading it. All of these things are pretty visible and even in retrospective reveal many collaborators, still main point “watch out for that and believe you can win, Russia action regardless” is just shout without giving any hope this policy will shift to something more firm (given recent drone fall on Romanian soil, no convoys for grain ships, air-free zone 25km).

JohnnyBeerGr8

there is no “guide” how to deal with Orban, Fico, Kaczynski, Scholz/SPD, AFD, Macron telephonist, Austria, Switzerland, Africa, China or even USA global politics agenda. I take it as first step you give a name to the issue, without any others how to deal with that.

Max Beckhaus

Well here is the name: Russia lead by Putin declared war on the West and it’s liberal ideals. You just need to see one of those Russian shows, to understand that the Russians are in for it. All we need to do, is accept the fact that we are at war, because war can and is declared one-sided. We have no choice in the matter.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I understand that, i dont hear or see politicians around the globe saying that. No Iron Courtain, no demonstrations of power, no rightful principles. Just a lot of we have to weight every steps since it could escalate more. Something like, im full after lunch and lazy to stand up from the table and close the door…

JohnnyBeerGr8

And so fart its pretty obvious Russians will only do what you let them to do and every step you take back is weakness in their eyes. They want to rule people, and scorch country, not whole Earth, they keep children and families on the West and enjoy higher standard and stolen money from R wealth. Its not that hard to see that after year and half.

Max Beckhaus

Yes.

Question

Hello!

My questions is related to that frontline from Toretsk to Avdiika to Krasnohorivka to Marinka to Vuhledar.

Beside the attacks in the totally destroyed Marinka and the counter UA offensive above Toretsk, is this frontline a more „still standing“ one?

Like Torekts, Avdiika, Krasnohorivka, Vuhledar are standing there as strong defensive positions, some attacks by RUS which always get

Question

get destroyed or is their any special operation/good to know case in these 4 areas at the moment?

I haven‘t seen any bigger update at these places in a while so how is the situation there?

Max Beckhaus

So I think it is safe to assume that no major parameter of this war will change until the 1.1.2025, at which date a new us president may take over. The Russian economy won’t collapse, the Russian soldier will keep being ready to die for that dumb imperial idea and the Kremlin will probably not implode. Ukraine will fight for it’s survival in any case and the USA will keep trying to control

Max Beckhaus

this war instead of just giving Ukraine what they need to win. So the open question to me is how this artillery war develops. Russia is losing this war right now and if it can’t change that, can it take the losses until 1.1.25 without having to give up larger amounts of land. It seems that Russia is crumbling already. Subquestions to this are definitely the munitions problem for both sides

Max Beckhaus

And how the tactical drone fight develops. I would guess that the technical advantage of the West should give an edge in drones and counter battery aka precision strikes. The online field where Russia may score is in the amount of munitions available, but even in that field I can’t call it. Trump isreally the only saving grace I can see now.

COLIN

Trump? He will stop support for Ukraine. Same as he did for the Kurds.

Patrick

That’s far from being proven. Trump approved the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine – something Obama did not do – and he has ordered missiles fired at Syrian military sites, openly targeting strategic operations and allies of Russia. I would not be surprised if he increased US military support to Ukraine. He is unpredictable.

Noelle

actually he is very predictible as most self-obsessed dimwits. Get the most stupid choice possible which in some way (even tiny) inflates his failing ego and bingo! That would be the choice.
He seems ‘erratic’ and ‘unpredictable’ in just the same way as most non-medicated patients for the people not familiar with the pattern of disorder.

Patrick

Ok then please tell me what he will do to ‘inflate his failing ego’?

Noelle

anything giving short term self-gratification within bracket of his actual situation. Rewind his shows (actually he was one of the few who were performing without actually performing) for a hint.

Patrick

But it doesn’t tell us what decisions he will take on Ukraine. That was my point. His past actions have been ambiguous at best (and certainly not Russia-friendly as many people mistakenly assume) and do not have any predictive value.

COLIN

He with held weapons fro Ukraine hoping to get dirt on Hunter Biden

Patrick

Right but does it imply he will torpedo efforts to deliver weapons in 2025?

COLIN

He also telegraphed USA withdrwal from Afganistan.

nghghghg

I think you are grossly underestimating the amount of equipment Ukraine actually needs to outright win this war. The goal from day 1 for the West was to stabilize Ukraine’s defenses {success}, erode Russia’s offensive capabilities (which means, erode the artillery advantage) {good progress}, and apply pressure to the Russian economy to force a withdrawal {more resilient than expected}.

nghghghg

To reach equipment parity with Russia among air and ground assets would require the US donate a not insignificant fraction of its combat and supporting assets. Also bankrolling the training of combat and support units, transport, fueling, arming, repair, building maintenance facilities, protecting those facilities… and then replacing those assets with modern *more expensive* equivalents.

nghghghg

I think the West donates token forces to Ukraine to give them the capability to accelerate Russian battlefield losses, but there’s no shot of them getting enough tanks and planes to yee-haw their way to Crimea without Russia withdrawing due to political and economic turmoil at home.

nghghghg

And Ukraine has done a pretty remarkable job given the circumstances. It’s the job of their politicians to always ask for more. But they’ve also shown they’re capable of developing weapons to fill vacancies. They’ve evolved drone warfare to a basically terrifying prospect and continue to win the war of hearts and minds online. The war will probably take years to resolve though.

Max Beckhaus

Yes, it will take years and the yee haw moment is gone and was obviously never intended, but I do think that taking large parts of land back in 24 is very possible. The good progress concerning artillery is the point, since it is the key to offensive and defensive actions. I am not talking about yee hawing, I am talking about grinding away…

nghghghg