Invasion Day 549 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 26th August 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Due to low intensity of fighting and only minor changes on the ground, I’ve decided to reduce the number of summaries. Starting August 9, there’ll be two summaries per week, released on Wednesday and Sunday.
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- Recently geolocated video released by Ukrainian troops shows Russian advance west of Raihorodka towards Nadiya and Novojehorivka. The enemy seems to control the nearby high ground. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novojehorivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Klishchiivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Stepove
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Ukrainian troops made gains south-west of Novopokrovka. (source)
- Ukrainian forces advanced east of Novoprokopivka and pushed the enemy behind the first line of defense. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Crimea
occupied peninsula
- Units of Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence conducted a raid in the vicinity of Olenivka settlement on August 24.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
The Russian main line of defence is breached near Verbove. Geolicalized footage
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1696811846303449093?s=20
Is that the obstacle line or the trench line behind it? Breaching the later would be some news, if it can be held on to that is.
It is geolocalized just outside Verbove, behind the “dragon teeth” (and an advance of at least 1km from previously-known ukrainian positions). In this area, there is no trench line, but probably fortified defenses inside Verbove.
Yup, looks like the Ukrainians are on the outskirts of Vrebove
Recent developments suggest UKR captured most of Klishiivka (maybe 70% – 80%) and its fall could be imminent.
10 AFU brigades are concentrated within 100 sq km next to Rabotyne and this is a lowland area. In retrospective, the plan – supposedly – was to break through the Russian defenses here quickly (hours/days), then it would make perfect sense. However that didn’t happen and the place simply turned into a huge pocket of fire.
Seem there is positive development NE of Pryutne where UAF could get through canyon/gorge and finally could approach said settlement from two sides and get R units under pressure. Lets see if it will be confirmed later on.
Robotyne liberated today, for the second time in five days, 83 days after the launch the c-offensive. Very indicative.
of?
of gruelling Ukrainian advances and strong Russian resilience
Of nothing since we do not know the real story until may be the end of September or even later.
That is, grueling for whom? Russia, Ukraine, both?
And if both, which seems likely, who will lose this attrition phase and to what end? Romany unanswered questions yet for any interesting discussion on it.
Yeah let’s hope things improve
Now that the abnormal Rusich group is no longer fighting on this line, things can only get better.
Could you give more details? Who is not fighting?
Look for yourself, on Google… Writing about these idiots is a waste of time
mercenary who announced they stop fighting because one of their boss (arrested during tourism trip in western perverts countries. Crimea was pobably too dangerous for him.) is in jail in finland. True russian patriots. Lol.
dont know what you expect, war will be here tomorrow, this year, next year and unless something dramatically changes (eg western support, putin dies, R 2M mass mobilization etc), possibly year after that too. Someone said, wars usually are very short or very long. Given things UAF dont have,its a shame second largest army is on defense and that it lost already some tiny bits of land, pot.Tokmak.
Yes, measured in liberated land, Russia is the second best army in Ukraine this year. Still, after this offensive we will have some idea how this may move on the next year(s). Especially if Ukraine can hope to make important gains before the new or old president of the USA starts the next term.
thats all just question marks we have to wait and see. UAF is in that since 2014, i believe they keep carry on even if western support declines (if it will and to what level). What im just stunned to see Patrick rambling about UAF advances, when they already captured more land that glorious R army in last 8 months, and they dont have air, mlrs or manpower superiority, so seem on sided evaluation.
that 20x times smaller army is pushing bigger one that even have to dug out themselves (smart move, no denial). All these pro-R will babble that its NATO theyre fighting, not UAF, but they fool only themselves that 3 days op goes still as planned.
i still cant comprehend that glorious second best army of the world couldnt even take Kharkov 20km away from border in very first days, nor encircle it. Long before western support. Famous russian logistic failing to deliver results 100-150km away from last railway hub any yet some people happy UAF is having difficulties to kick out R from their country. But it is what it is
I am afraid you’ll have to get used to my comments. I have been outspoken about Russia’s terrible management of the war in 2022. I don’t see why I should spare Ukraine from criticism if I feel they have badly underperformed – so far – during this c-offensive.
yes, and that is a issue, isnt it? Russia is aggressor and responsible of their own problems they created with taking that decision, when UAF is in less advantageous position created by R aggression decision. And yet, based on your criticism, they perform in some areas better than 20x times bigger opponent, which you skip to take in to your account and only cherrypick things that support yr view.
I never said Ukraine did not perform better than Russia in some areas and – unlike many on both sides – I call a failure a failure whoever is failing. I’d ask you not to distort my comments please.
Its not a first day Patrick 🙂 you can avoid it as much as you want, the outcome is still the same. When you are up to the criticism of UAF at Robotyne, show me R opposite how they managed against heavily fortified systems (and you will still miss lack of air or arty shells – like they did in Bakhmut or Popasna)- Marinka or Vuhledar still holds as far as i know.
Also, if your criticism would contain specific facts like level of commandership or performance of more experienced groups compared to newly created, id assume your criticism if fact based. If you only refrain to generic statements, its slow or its not enough…then youre biased and emotional view inserted to your evaluation.
There is also attrition aspect you tend to skip completely that Max or Noele keep you reminding regardless of land changes. While no one really knows how long Russia will be able to conduct the war, its perfectly clear already, their equip had degraded, they cannot produce enough ammo and they have to commit special units wherever front leaks, not mentioning operational rotation.
Stay focused and look at a map. Where is the frontline? What progress has been achieved so far? Where is Tokmak (let’s not even mention Mariupol and Melitopol). Check against pre c-offensive expectations. Things may change, but 13 weeks into this operation, it can hardly be considered a success.
I’ve always thought the expectations of UA’s counteroffensive were insanely over inflated. They were given good equipment but not Super Mario stars. The attack has seen successes but not a decisive breakthrough. The West believes this is because Ukrainian leadership mismanaged Western aid and distributed supplies over the length of the front rather than concentrating on a point to punch through.
Ukraine and the West may be talking past each other when it comes to how to handle the war at this stage. But if Ukraine does break through the Robotyne-Verbove line, that would be a nice success. They need to reach the 2nd line before Russia has the winter to fortify it though, else the next counteroffensive will just be a repeat of this one.
so again averting lots of question. Fact is, UAF liberated back 40k square km, fact is UAF liberated 300km square km in 2 months in heavily fortified area, more than grandee R army did in last 8 months. Fact is R attempts to do the same in heavily fortified area is counted by fingers on one hand. So when you accuse UAF, please pick your facts better.
Ok, so why don’t you say: “the c-offensive is a great success story?” And BTW, capturing Soledar, Bakhmut and over a dozen smaller settlements around them – all of them pretty well fortified – was no small achievement.
where were you when they were conquering 15km from Popasna to Bakhmut and then city itself for more than 8 months, was it failed then too? It again falls to the finger case scenario i was talking about, second would be Popasna, that had fortification from 2017. Facts dont lie, only you try to twist them. Whats failure for UAF is success for RA.
While the fact is that the Russian army leadership is largely incompetent, if that army were really as bad as they claim, the Ukrainians would have won back a lot more land long ago. But the truth is, if it turns out to be a war of attrition, which is what it looks like now, the Russians are still good enough that they’ll never be driven out of Ukraine. Which, however, is the goal of… Read more »
If Russia is still in the country in two years, it will amount to a guerrilla war for Ukraine. At some point the Ukraine will no longer have enough manpower to maintain offensive operations. Even the large amount of material in the West is useless. The Russian army is at least good enough to keep several front lines active.
A bad army would not have been able to dig in and defend itself in a foreign country as if it were their country. No matter how incompetent Russia may be, it is and remains a parasite that you can never get rid of once it is in the country.
Your predictions about the further course of the war are just as little based on facts as you accuse others of here.
It seem its a glass dilemma here, half full or half empty. I was talking about UAF leadership, that if he had chosen to criticize specific commanders of poor performance he had done it better than saying its slow or failed offensive. Oh Russians will be driven off, no matter if in 10 years or 100 years, they waged 3 conflicts wit UA in 20th century. USSR colapsed, so as Russia, in time.
The rest I wont comment, its been discussed throughout forum multiple times, its complex topic, neither victory is quaranteed, nor peace and will be lengthy if parameters are not changed. Im just comparing that 20x times bigger army had to dig in themselves because its unable to push through and switching initiative phases because its no longer to dictate its own initiative on larger scale.
for instance, if i take Michael Kofman from War on the Rocks, he argumented why UAF couldnt withdraw its most experienced units from Bakhmut and give them western equipment or why in second (last) phase had to bleed for symbol they had lost anyway. There is also question no one will answer, if any country would have fared better than UAF given these conditions, except whole NATO or USA.
How on earth would I or anybody else outside the UKR military know about the performance of its commanders? Get real man…
Measured by expectations, the counteroffensive didn’t succeed, yet, and if you take budanovs visions, it pretty surely won’t. That being said, this war is a big success story for ukraine to date. We will see where we stand when rainy season comes. If Ukraine can’t mount any considerable success like taking tokmak, then the USA is the only one that can change the course of the war in 24.
If Ukraine is able to be (more) successful this year, things look really ugly for Russia in 24 with more losses coming up. From 25 onwards Ukraine will have no munitions problem anymore. If Biden wins again, Russia will be in trouble from 25 on in any way. If trump wins, well, we will have to see how far Europe is in 25…
Only Russia and, to a large extent, Ukraine can change the course of the war. The US does not negotiate for Ukraine or Russia, they leave that to the two countries. And they will not intervene directly either. If the United States could change course, they would have done so long ago. Or do you think the Americans are pumping billions into Ukraine when they could have ended the situation long ago?
They are the only ones that have the weapons to change the battlefield dynamic in 24 if Ukraine fails to make real gains this year, yes, I believe that. I am talking about the battlefield, not diplomacy, negotiations.
i love your ability to neglect anything else and react to one thing and one only that suits you. Name of the commander is example, brigade numbers are known, experienced or less are known too. Again, the point was about criticism on point without vague statements and i gave you examples or areas that are widely speculated in western media/experts, inluding some of the UAF officers (eg. Arty).
Did you expect me to say commander Petrenko or Pavlenko did a terrible job or brigade XYZ is disappointing? I really don’t get your point.
well, i tried to explain to you the approach to the critique with area that its more coherent to facts (lack of training, lack of cohesion, inexperienced units first time in combat on spearhead, rigid soviet commandership in some of the brigades, combined arms tactic failing on bigger formations, 3-4 approaching vectors etc etc). Pick your poison.
I dont know what you think i do know or dont, but i had opportunity to review this interview about the time it got released reflecting Cherson offensive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aB6O-e99OKA and guy clearly states R did competent defensive job and expect nothing less for coming fights.
And what does that have to do with the interview, which is several months old? You take individual, personal opinions from others and try to reflect them on the present without looking at the actual events objectively. You would have chased the Russians away with a snap of your fingers, but that’s not the way it is.
Why you sway focus? You accused me im not giving enough credit to R who remains competent, which was not what i was countering to Patrick. I tried to stick all along with UAF, its problems or successes and compare it to R performance under same or similar comparision when attacking (not defending). During forum already stated its a clash of will not sprint, stop projecting in me your assumptions.
Im just amazed how far you got from topic: Offensive is failed (or is going nowhere) and what are the critics or criteria, that I personally would have swapped finger and chased Russian away. Thats just absurd logic you have.
It’s a good push considering how well fortified the area seems to be, question is if it’s sustainable. Combined large scale manevuers are complex and main reason why militaries do exercises. Seem to be issues at staff level with planning, execution plus poor intel on fortifications and minefields. Similiar issues RU side struggles with but nominally was excepted to be better prepared for.
and thats finally some arguments worth to read and think or discuss about. Not sure if you can help me to understand if maneuver was denied by minefield and aerial support limiting approaching vectors, without its own air cover or if in any different universe UAF master combined arms tactic in large echelon (battalion, brigade), that would have provided better results. Cause time played role too
Had, would, if. That’s speculation that didn’t happen.War is an event as it is.Everything else is just desired events that have nothing to do with the fact.Every strategic level that could have happened but didn’t is pure theory for post-war theses.Be content with the situation as it is.If I toss a coin and it lands on head,I can’t say that if it had been tails the present would look different now
So basically close forums, cause there is nothing yet to discuss, wait for post war time. Brilliant idea!
In the ranks of Ukrainian ground forces new 14th regiment is formed.
https://t.me/DeepStateUA/17453
Yes, we have it on our site: https://militaryland.net/ukraine/armed-forces/14th-separate-regiment/
Since they already have 14th mech Brigade I don’t understand the logic of the name. They will eventually grow to brigade size and they’ll need to change their name
Well, there is/was 14th Tank Brigade as well. Units with same numbering in one branch isn’t that uncommon.
Here’s the Meduza analysis of Aug 24, now in English:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/08/24/having-liberated-the-village-of-rabotyne-the-ukrainian-army-looks-further-south
Actually it was a shorter version, this is the original one:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/08/24/ukraine-is-going-all-out-in-the-decisive-phase-of-the-summer-offensive
@Jerome: Sorry to bother you again, but could you please show the new Crimea map in the same format as the other ones?
As I was one of the users which have only an old smartphone (might also be the reason, while my Google Maps might not work correct) this map is not visible for me.
Would be happy if you can do that!
No map is shown. Crimea remains entirely occupied, the note concerns the small raid Ukraine conducted. The territory did not exchange hands. Zoom in on the full map of Ukraine at the very bottom. Small fire icon. That’s where the raid was. No Ukrainian casualties. One Ukrainian flag left as a present to the surviving Russians. Russians took casualties.
Ah thank you!
I‘m wondering because among these Crimea line „…August 24.“ and above „Full Map of Ukraine“ there is like a total white picture for me and if I click on it, it‘s like a neverending loading screen, which was the same behavior when the new maps were introduced. (And changed after Jerome changed the format a bit)
That’s probably the map legend, it’s the first object on the page just above the text “Full map of Ukraine”.
With „first object on the page“ you mean that the same picture is like above the „News – Invasion Day 549“ title?
That would explain something, because since I use this page here there is also like the same „white“ picture which doesn‘t load.
I always thought that it was just a simple header, but well, than I can‘t see these two images.
All maps, the author/similar posts pictures work.
Crimea doesn’t have a one, because it was just a raid. You can see the location on the fullmap.
Thank You!
I‘ve made some screens about the two displaying problems that I have, so the second one is the one, where I thought, that there would be a map.
https://ibb.co/RSP1ff6
https://ibb.co/wC5fY1W
Does anybody knows a solution for it?
*The first one. Links were created in the wrong order.
This is happening because you’re using an unsupported (likely old) browser or OS. These images you don’t see are in newer format, not supported by your software.
Hello!
So step by step it gets in the right (Tokmak) direction.
Are there some numbers like how many RUS soldiers occupying such a 30.000 inhabitants town?
And – of course speculation – what would be the strategy when coming closer to or then in the town.
Would it be like a house to house fight like in Bakhmut?
The issue is the distance not the soldiers waiting there. It’s 23km of flat open space without any protection.
The Russian artillery, the minefields and the their choppers will wreck havoc on any assault brigades trying to cross.
It will be a trail of bodies leading to Tokmak.
They have the luxury of pulling back and allowing us deeper extending supply lines.
I think UKR army knows what to do… encircle Tokmak on both flanks while constantly fire shells inside the city / russian logistics hubs to prevent them to go outside the city while the flanks / behind lines are pressurized, city will fall but take a long time I think
it is not ‘a flat terrain’ as imagined from IIWW movies of ‘Steppes’. There are however, significant def. structure of varying size and quality (from bunkers to just small firing pos. which RAF cannot properly man in current conditions (and that ‘error of attacking on multiple axis’ repeated by the Western experts is a sign. factor for this).
This will be hard. Definitelly.
same strategy : encircling and attrition.
Russia was forced to take troops in kherson and crimea to hold the lign. it doesnt work and now, ukr have fun in this weaked area .
Now russia is forced to call at the rescue VDV from kremina. What do you think will happens there without their best unit who save critical situation many times?
All of this really look like last year offensiv.
Yes, in fact it would appear as if Russia is simply willing to hold the first line of defence at all costs, to make it appear as if the conflict has frozen (which would play in Russia’s advantage) – but looks like this plan is slowly but surely failing
It will be interesting to see if ukrain “stop ” offensiv and take time to exploited the breakthrough . direction kopani and vasilivka, they are behind russian main lign.
Or try to pierce next lign and in wich direction: verbove – polohy (rybar report rumor about that) or S Balka – tokmak. May be, they will do everything at the same time.
I think, they will try to take S Balka stronghold as soon as possible and next concentrate on exploitation.
S balka is at the end of the hill, it give them large view and control on low land. And good defensiv position to prepare next step of offensiv.
Polohy would be nice, but given the time and land cover, probably wont solve anything in short term. Tokmak with only railway R can use seem much better target, on the otherise on west there is open land with less roads (m-18 from vasilivka, but further west) and east of tokmak, there is layer of rivers. I assume no one is gonna conquering Tokmak in direct battle. Encircling will be challenging.
and ofc its because securing UA flanks is vital way to secure the salient they created, either left or right. Still my personal bet would be get to Tokmak as close as possible and then widen the flanks after main effort is crippled by rasputica/fall season. All it depends whether ISW is right and R lack men for another def lines or will it be rinse and repeat with first one.
and continue speculation, thats what Pyatykhatky could have meant to be as well, if they had success there, to reach Vasilivka and either flank Tokmak or liberate Dnieper side. Could have been also ruse to make R guess where UA would like to weight their pressure. Maybe history will tell
For me its sure Ukrain will again push in direction of vasylivka before winter. Some RU units where take here to be send in robotyne area.