The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the recent developments on the battlefield, as of 20th August 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Due to low intensity of fighting and only minor changes on the ground, I’ve decided to reduce the number of summaries. Starting August 9, there’ll be two summaries per week, released on Wednesday and Sunday.
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian troops advanced along M-03 highway towards Berkhivka. (source)
- Tanks of Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade attacked Russian positions south of Bakhmut. (source)
- Ukrainian forces assaulted Russian positions just north of Andriivka. While the outcome is unknown, such attack wouldn’t be possible if Ukrainian forces didn’t control nearby treelines. (source)
- Russian artillery shelled Ukrainian vehicles south of Andriivka, revealing Ukrainian gains south of the settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bohdanivka, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
- Soldiers of Ukrainian 59th Motorized Brigade recaptured positions south-east of Nevelske. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Tanks of Ukrainian 72nd Mechanized Brigade attacked Russian positions in a mine north of Marinka. (source)
- Ukrainian forces advanced on the eastern flank of Urozhaine. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Urozhaine
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- According to late reports by Russian Telegram accounts, Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne. This was not officially confirmed by either side and there is no visual evidence, thus the settlement remains contested for today’s summary.
- Nevertheless, heavy fighting is reported in the area of Robotyne.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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A plane crashed over St. Petersburg. Supposedly a private plane with Prigozhin on board. But it’s not confirmed yet
Looks like the plane fell from the 5th floor. Who could have possibly seen that coming?
probably tried to open the window when he slipped on the toilet, with tiny little help of RU S-400
wow what a surprise.
it doesnt change anything. he was dead with moment when he abandoned march to Moscow. another possibility is that is fake and he is enjoying summer at Maladives. kremlin had to solve it somehow, not very sophiscicated though.
‘I do not belive in the news until they are officially denied’
British one death doesn’t change much for Wagner as he’s just a face but rumor has it Utkin was on it and possibly some of the commanders counsel if true Wagner is no longer special as there commanders are what made them so effective.
Prigozhins not British one lol
tiny bit of data speculation about russian “war economy”, seem it may have limited implications: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-arms-production-q2-2023/
New Meduza piece with interesting c-offensive analysis and lessons: https://meduza.io/feature/2023/08/21/vsu-pereshli-k-reshayuschey-faze-nastupleniya-v-boy-brosheny-pochti-vse-rezervy-ishod-operatsii-teper-zavisit-ot-gotovnosti-rossii-vyderzhat-davlenie
English translation should follow soon.
Very good analysis… Unfortunately, we have to say that without negotiations, the war will last a few more years. It’s all too stuck.
Hello!
What is your opinion on the grain agreement now after that one ship got through an ukrainian corridor now to Turkey.
Will the Russ really dare to attack freight ships of other countries or would they like more mining the actual open corridor so that this will block any more ships?
Is there something special about the 1 ship that this was the only one moving through this way now?
It is a single Hong Kong-flagged vessel, which by the way left Ukrainian ports.
The Russians would never hit a Chinese ship (the world’s top grain importer)
For me more than reopening the corridor is propaganda … but I hope I’m wrong
Hello!
Just a question to the actual agreement of Denmark/Netherlands to give Ukrainians F16:
Is there any other weapon beside the jets (and beside the ones which clearly won‘t be given) that is still higher in ranking and missing?
Due to the forbidden entry in Black Sea warships might not be a useful present, or could there be such a huge surprise like delivered by EU over Romania?
The problem for both sides is the replacement of vehicles and ammunition.
Western armies were meant for Afghan-style warfare. The US in 2021 had produced 90,000 ammunition from 152, now they have risen to 24,000 per month. Ukrainian consumption is indicated in 150000 – 270000 per month. Even for Patriot missiles, or other weapon systems, the problems are similar.
The economic mobilization of the West is slower than the Russian one which instead has switched to a war economy (they have converted tractor factories to produce tanks)
Things will improve for the Ukrainians when the new western factories are started, which unfortunately takes a long time.
However, the Russians cannot last for years. Before the war, the arms export was the second most important source of income after resources (oil, gas). Now Rus produces weapons for the fight in Ukr, so it makes no money. The export of the resources has broken together and weapon export is almost no longer available.
Nobody wants the other RUS products. An economy cannot endure for long. The Russians lie to the insolvency and over -indebtedness, which at some point can no longer be artificially prevented by the central bank.
Russia certainly has huge economic losses, but less than we think.
Emblematic is the discourse of oil. Now sold in India, here transformed into diesel (and no longer in Italy), and then resold in Europe as an Indian petroleum product. All transported by Greek shipowners who become Panamanians when in Russia.
There is a queue to enter the BRICS
As long as India continues to veto, there will be no enlargement.
Almost 80% of the under 40 year olds from the BRICS countries want better cooperation with western countries, live in a democracy and are against oppression of the people. While a handful of old, senile, living in the past, selfish old men loathe the West at the expense of their own people.
I didn’t expect it, but the Indian media is pro-Russian… I think the colonization has left a deep wound in large parts of the world
A little Google search is enough to prove it
Yes. Yes it has. It’s the key reason why even if most countries around the world are sympathetic to Ukraine, the fact that the US and NATO are seen as its main backers makes it very hard to trust Kyiv.
US foreign policy minds from Harvard and Yale are oblivious to this. Among other things. Key way they undermine Ukraine.
Undermine is a strong word. Ukraine has always been free to make a choice to decline NATO assistance. Whatever benefit there is to rejecting the West, Ukraine clearly doesn’t value it as much.
thats bit black and white. UA is former soviet and as such had some of the relationship with pro-socialist part of the world, including via grain or weapons (helis,ships). Also other see how love of “master” country leads – Armen, Kazach, Belarus, no one can be sure around such neighbor as RUS. UK didnt re-invade India or SAR nor US did Philipines
I’d rather say they are ‘anti-American’ and ‘anti-Western’ in some way or another. Romanticizing Russia is not the particularity of the so called ‘Global South’.
Strangely… every time when these enamored in Russia folks emigrate they do not choose this land of happines, freedom and plenty as the destination. Such a mystery…
We doesnt see any result to this russian war economy. They lost more than they repair from soviet stocks.
West mobilization is slower, but is very very very stronger. small mobilization of the west is more than all russia could do. Russia is not soviet union in 80s.
Ukrain have access not only to west, but also to most of the world production or stock.
No, Russia can not upscale its war production considerably. It is a gigantic gas station, not a factory. You can’t mass produce stuff with a gas station.
long range rocketry for which the jets are the useful and agile platform of delivering.
The US or Sullivan dilemma: How to force Russia into a truce without making Ukraine to strong, because they believe Crimea is a read line. Basically they think Russia has lost all ready and all this is about now, is how to end it and they try to control it into a point where both will sign a truce, preferably before the next us election. I think that won’t work.
last hope for russia: US abandon Ukraine, force other countries to abandon ukrain and force Ukrain to sign capitulation.
I dont see whats could not follow this perfect plan.
That’s probably the plan. The Russians are banking on a Trump win and if Trump doesn’t win they’ll back a more moderate Republican, but only those candidates who are against more military support for Ukraine. A Biden win would mean massive trouble for the Pocckies. This conflict must not freeze, because this is in Russia’s interest
The US election is only a year away. During this time, the Russian economy will fall apart, and the Ukrainians will increase the production of their own weapons.
Regards.
Biden doesn’t care much about Crimea, but obviously it’d be better for him if the war was over before the election.
How much does Ukraine care about Crimea? If they push RU out of the south and east, would they still want to keep fighting? In a scenario like that, they’d be able to blockade Crimea, but invading it would be costly. So they’d likely use it as a hostage to get a better deal.
In my opinion, Russia is already ready to sign a truce. You don’t make minefields that large if you want to attack.
Of course, the RUS are ready for this. So that they can revive their army and replenish their weapons during the time of standstill. Agreeing on a ceasefire with the RUS is actually a bad idea because it gives them a free pass to rejoin the UKR a few years later. Ceasefire also means that the conflict will be frozen as it is.
The RUS remain in the country anyway, just not allowed to shoot and attack. But the UKR must not win back their country either. There are currently far too many RUS in the country for a reasonable ceasefire.
A truce is perfect for the Russians. By NATO statute, Ukraine cannot enter if it has territorial claims. Even the real reconstruction could not start.
Real immediate peace (with new borders, as per the NATO adviser’s proposal) is hard for the Ukrainians to accept. Since the retreat from Kherson the fronts have essentially stopped …. morally the Ukrainians have a duty to continue the war,
morally the Ukrainians have a duty to continue the war, but I’m not sure it suits them in terms of human and material destruction.
No, west Germany was part of NATO. So there is precedence for that. NATO membership, or not to please the Russians, may very well be part of the deal.
BRD & DDR were different countries separated by an agreement after the WW2. Not exactly the same. But they can accept Ukraine into NATO as a guarantee of the end of the conflict. the territories occupied by the RU become temporarily occupied for 10 years. The expectation that Putin will not be in 10 years and RU will have to negotiate
At the same time, I’m afraid that the world will forget the lessons of WW1 and RU will be isolated like Germans after 1918. RU will be stewing in their own shit and accumulating anger. Not a good plan. In high school, RU already teaches the shit that comes out on TV. It’s a shame
world already forget the lessons from WWII. There is only one way to tame aggresive, imperialist and genocidal regime – by direct occupation and dismantlement of its institutions. Putin’s Russia (and generally imperialist in the ‘old ways’ Russia) delenta est.
Otherwise we will have next WW in a decade or so. And we ‘th westerners’ will be much weaker then.
Yes and no. Russia is already in the same place as Germany was after WW1. The collapse of the Soviet Union is there ww1 end they want it back. Now, there are many differences between now and then. Russia can not be destroyed, not from the outside. All we can do is cage it in. It is a lost world for our cause of freedom.
Bingo. USA is a lot more likely to fragment than anyone wants to admit. At the very least the federal government is almost certain to be paralyzed in the near future – more than it already is.
Why I make plans about a future Autonomous Constitutional Zone here on the West Coast… ~5 trillion dollar economy, nothing to sneeze at in international relations terms.
it has to be if we do not intend to fight in LIT, LAT, EST in the next hand dealt.
Did I understand you correctly: NATO will declare war on Russia?
NATO will not attack Russia.
Putin’s Russia (it’s a system not a person) will inevitably test article 5 (Baltics) if given a chance by appeasment. We have been there, as historians says: ‘nobody learns nothing’.
Inevitably? I read here every day about thousands of Russian tanks destroyed and hundreds of thousands of Russians killed. And about how the economy won’t survive until the end of the year. How do you reconcile that?
NK, Iran are countries in economic ruin. Does that makes them less dangerous and aggressive (including open military actions)? Give RU a chance to recover for a decade and the West to drown in reactionary bickering and poilcal and social deterioration and you will see the outcome.
And this fresh out of the ruins Russia will attack the Baltic, causing a nuclear war? To finally fall into ruins for good? I somehow don’t see the logic in that.
have you seen any logic in the ‘Desert Storm in Ukraine’ in winter with 1/4 forces used by the coalition in the 1st Iraq war at the time on 200km front, while in Ukraine you had 1.5k km line of contact.
Against the Girkin’s fantasies this ‘wunderkrieg’ would not work in 2014 either.
Limited renewed incrusion in Donbas and separating the region de facto would be Crimea 2.0 ->
–>within the limits of Russian modus of operandi and its imperial rationale. Full blown ‘Special Military F*ckup’ … not really.
So… does not expect any ‘common rationality’ from Kremlin.
Besides we already have Vicy party in FR (and some in Italy, Germany etc.) having ‘we won’t die for Vilnus’ programme. Russia does not need to be strong, it is enough that ‘the West’ will be –>
–> fragmented, squabbling and weak.
i need to see this to believe that NATO will fight if putin decides to roll in with his tanks across the river to “liberate” eastern estonia. he’ll set it up just like ukraine. theres towns with 70% russians in eastern estonia. one thing we never forget what was done in WW2. Allies making deals with Stalin…you dont negotiate with them guys. im glad Zelenskyy knows that. west still havent learned
yeah… living in the striking range of Iskanders changes the perspective, right?
I’m not saying it says the statute of NATO. And to enter, the opposition of a single state is enough, and clearly stated (except for the countries of Eastern Europe) nobody wants the risk of a war with Russia.
For Germany it was different, unification was foreseen by an internal agreement, and only with the consent of the powers that militarily occupied it.
everything is possible if the ‘powers that be’ want this strong enough. German reunification was not a given and mostly even unimagineable for most people (including politicians) even a year before it happen.
this ‘proposal’ is a dangerous nonsense. Every Orban, Putin or whatever will see himself (or herself) entitled to any ‘justified border correction’ one can imagine. The cost for US (and the World as a whole) would be enourmous and that is exactly what Putin wants: ‘every thug for himself’.
Nonsense but a possible reality… Hitler was apeased to any limit as well.
For me the lessons of history are 3 1 – do not invade Russia (Napoleon and Hitler) 2 – do not humiliate another state (Germany, but also many former colonies which are now against the west) 3 – Do not give the signal that borders are easily changed by force (Hitler and Japan) Only by balancing the 3 points will it be possible to hope for a stable peace… both will have to give up… Read more »
It is never enough. Its not like Germany would have stayed peaceful if the allied would have let them have Austria, Czech, and half of Poland. What makes you think Russia will be different? They will just keep on trying to eat up more. There is no such thing like a stable peace with this Russia. We can’t undo their felt humiliation, Crimea is not the whole of eastern Europe until the Elbe.
2 does not make sense like this.
I see no chance of Russia attacking a NATO state in a few years.
Russia has been tying with Ukraine over the past year.
Now NATO armies are designed for small ground contingents. (UK and IT, respectively 5th and 10th armies in the world, each have only 40 operational tanks).
In 5 years Western armies will be much stronger.
ad1 you skipped Crimean war 1853-56, 1905 RU-JAP, WW1, plus nuclear arsenal prevent from any “invasion of R”
ad2 R did humiliate themselves in a scale beyond imagination already
ad3 post factum- already indicated in 2008 Gruzia, 2014 Crimea
essentially its R mind complex similar to Japanese before 1942, theyre all superior and not responsible for anything and they have right to take it, because theyre superior and biggest and whatever bs
we had humiliated Germany after WWII pretty well. The lesson is – after the WWI Germany was not humiliated *enough*.
When you shall met some Hungary Greater Again dude, politely remind him that his fantasy directly shows that HUN is actually, not small enough to take a lesson. The bigger, though unavoidable, mistake after collapse of Soviet Union was that it was not embraced in SU as such.
i dont know who is we, if french, then you were pretty lucky to get over WW2, especially with Vichy France and 33rd SS div. GER was humiliated more in WW1, in the aftermath of WW2, they let them to keep bundeswehr, made marshal plan and integrate in pact of steel. Lesson learned.
more is always debatable, but in terms of pride and reparations, id say its WW1 winning over WW2 where they were devastated, but allowed to rebuild quickly which was not the case after WW1.
but you realize that ‘they were allowed to rebuild’ as an accupied and then vassalised territory, Both really and formally Germany restored its full independendce (recognised as such by the Powers) *after* reunification. And don’t forget that there was also Morgenthau Plan as an alternative (and a stick).
I know they allowed that, thats why i said “lesson learned” in first response. Also compare 20 years after WW1 and 20years after WW2. Western GER got quickly introduced to all organizations to hook them up and also to remove 2nd grade nation feeling. Paid off tremendously, also after re-union.
yeah.. there is no power stronger that repeated stupidity.
Hi Noelle.
I am a Hungarian. Can you please tell me why is Hungary not small enough? Thanks.
i think his point is when Orban is dreaming about restoring hungarian former glory with big Hungary, that he hadnt taken the lesson from history to end up where HU is now (smaller).
I am not an Orban fan, but he never talks about border changes. What he and the Hungarian nation kind of unanimously wants is autonomy for the ethnic Hungarians inside the countries where they live. Similarly what South-Tyroleans or Catalans have.
there is multiple occasions wearing him famous Big Hungary scarf in the open (football stadium). If you play ethnicity hard, see where it can get to you. Hungarians dont suffer under Slovakian shoes, they have their own language and schools, theyre part of elections and parliament, not sure you want more. Really be careful between what you want and what you need to live peacefuly.
Actually, I have several Hungarian friends from Slovakia and they do suffer from Slovakian suppression. Because Hungarian is not an official language in the regions where they live in local majority, their ratio decreases decade by decade (in 1920 there where about 30% in the area of current Slovakia, nowadays there is about 6-7%). Part of what they ask for is to have Hungarian as a second officia
official local language in the regions where they live. This would be a part of what they call “local autonomy” (of course, there were other components, like economy, e.g. taxes to be invested in local developments).
For Hungarians, the way is not through border changes but through South-Tyrol and Catalan style autonomy. Orban, and also most of its opposition agrees on this.
Hello Adam. I am surprised that in some part of Europe, the using of local language is restricted even by force. It’s totally different in My Country, Indonesia. No bullying of using Mother language in daily conversations wherever you were. We are proud of our mother language and we have thousands of them. We use ‘Indonesia Language’ as lingua franca (which is also not born from majority language)
he didnt say that, Robb, he said in one of the towns his friends live have no offical language. I said, slovak law orders to have bilingual municipality if local minority is above 20%. Go to Velky Meder/Nagy Meder and you will see your self. If you dont know the background, stop leaning to opinion of your convenience.
For us, the nationality is about unity, not about Identity. Indonesia biggest population is Javanese people who are using Javanese language in daily activities. But we use ‘Modified’ Malay (named Indonesia language) as our national language, also as lingua franca. Historically, it was just because that language easiest to be understood by other mother tongues in daily activities in the market.
It is very good that in Indonesia all local languages are equally respected. I did not say that in central Europe the minority languages cannot be used privately or are restricted by force (except the new language law of Ukraine). I just claimed that there are regions where the local linguistic majority is not allowed to introduce its own language on the regional (not city) level as co-official.
no it is not; besides Bielorus (which ostracize its own national insignia and language) and partially Russia (genociding Ukrainian identity). He was speaking about the frame of minority privilege (which in different countries exists in numerous forms like schools with national language, double-named signs, local autonomies with varying degree of ‘sovereignity etc.).
and you really had to go down that road. its long complicated history relationship, somewhat similar to polish-ukranian, where one nation ruled the other and then changed. Got two political parties, one part as Olano. Doesnt seem like oppression. Went to southern SVK couple times, Nagy Meder feels like hungarian dominion already. Seem we have different friends. Hungarians not dying due to SVK.
and you really had to go down that road. its long complicated history relationship, somewhat similar to POL – UKR, where one nation ruled the other and then changed. Got two political parties, one part as Olano. Doesnt seem like oppression.
Went to southern SVK couple times, Nagy Meder feels like hungarian dominion already. Seem we have different friends. Hungarians not dying due to SVK. Wider autonomy is always sensitive topic and it takes two to cooperate, not tu use autonomy as cover to join HU. Spain did not let Catalunia go even they wanted to- there is mixture of outcomes, not always being nation makes your land- eg Kurds.
Wider autonomy is always sensitive topic and it takes two to cooperate, not tu use autonomy as cover to join HU. Spain did not let Catalunia go even they wanted to- there is mixture of outcomes, not always being nation makes your land- eg Kurds.
Spain unilaterally granted the autonomy to Catalonia (and also to other regions like Basque land, etc.). The right to grant the autonomy always belongs to the majority nation. The minority nation can only ask for it. And that is what Hungarian minorities in various countries do, and Hungary of course support them in their efforts.
like i said, more than 300 years during KUK, when HU was majority over SVK at the time. There is distrust and tension. Given the complexity of the topic, id say, HU ethnic is ok, being able to speak and write freely in the cities they live. Rest is political debate with both cons and pros.
there is in law that if there is over 20% hu in the city, that all signs are bi lingual and also municipality is bilingual. Works well in Nagy Meder and other cities where hu minority is local majority
I don’t really see what you want to convince me about. I see the following facts.
as in case of other minorities, there are proceedings and orders from EU agendas which ignoring is quite costly for the stubborn country. Visiting your heighbour and babbling about ‘unity’, ‘autonomy’, ‘rights’ (and all good stuff) does not help. It wakes up separatism (which in fact is intended) and with time will breed violence.
You want to see what you want to see, Im also no exception. Orbans posture, including Big Hungary scarf is well known. 1921 Census Ratio doesnt mean they are massacred and cannot express their language, which can do. Rest is just leaning to your view Autonomy is justified, and i am with Noelle on this one, that its double edged sword. Compare Slovak HU to Donbas people.
oh you know. Putin also just ‘wanted autonomy for Russian people’. Make a point to the said communities that if they are feeling oppressed, they have a real way to defend their rights in EC or EHC (Slovakia and Romania are part of EU, Ukr want to be). Though, you know, not being a country from ‘-exiters’ would help. The ‘Sudetenland’ case is a good analytical start-point.
No worries. Since WWII and especially since 1990 we only fight for minority rights using democratic methods, including the international organisations. As a return, can I just ask you not to make Hungary smaller 🙂
when orbanists (or others of a kind) are mumbling about ‘lost territories’ (e.g. Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine). Revanshism is dangerous and has a hefty price attached to it.
As I said, no significant Hungarian party wants border changes. What Hungarians (Orbanists and not Orbanists) want is South-Tyrol or Aland style autonomy for the minorities.
In the summary, the mine recaptured by the 72nd brigade is “north of Marinka” but the source says “north of Vuhledar”. Where is it exactly?
Here: 47.97829468439286, 37.51898115743726
OK thanks. So it is indeed north of Marinka. The 72nd brigade is supposed to be near Vuhledar, what are they doing there? I am more and more confused by the Ukrainian order of battle – and I hope Russians feel the same.
Vulhedar is close to marinka. the rest place for both sector is probably around kurakove.
It doenst take a long time to move units to one place to another. Reserves sector troops are probably common .
Best to assume that each brigade is like an old-style division that splits into battlegroups to operate in the field. Allows a brigade to fight for months in the same area or split off a component to fight elsewhere. My evaluation fwiw after watching these maps Jerome maintains for many months.
Much appreciate the work!
Months ago, in Italy, some military analysts and retired generals indicated vuhledar as the main area of the counter-offensive. The reasons were: shallower Russian defenses (the Russians were on the offensive); point closest to the front of the railway to Crimea; closest point to the sea of azov.
It’s a tank unit, and very likely it acts as a mobile element in the vicinity of its brigade’s deployment.