The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 9th August 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Due to low intensity of fighting and only minor changes on the ground, I’ve decided to reduce the number of summaries. Starting today, there’ll be two summaries per week, released on Wednesday and Sunday.
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
- According to Ukrainian officials, Russian army is accumulating its forces north-est of Kupyansk and has started to probe Ukrainian defensive positions in the area. Ukrainian troops are holding the line.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Synkivka, Ivanivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Russian forces launched a counter-attack in the vicinity of Berkhivka and pushed Ukrainian troops away from the settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Klishchiivka, Druzhba
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka, Sieverne
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Ukrainian forces, likely 38th Marine Brigade, attacked Russian positions in Urozhaine and entered the settlement. The result of the Ukrainian assault is unknown, but two BMP-3s were seen abandoned on the outskirts. Settlement is likely contested. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Staromayorske
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- According to Ukrainian General Staff, Russian forces launched a number of localized counter-attacks in order to recapture previously lost positions in the area of Robotyne, with no success.
- Ukrainian forces reached the outskirts of Robotyne. As we currently lack any proof they entered the settlement proper, Robotyne remains marked as RU-controlled. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- south of Novodanylivka
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- Ukrainian Special Forces conducted a raid on the left bank of Dnipro river, in the vicinity of Kozachi Laheri settlement. (source) (source)
- Various small-scale raids continue near Kherson by both sides.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Urozhaine has been liberated
yes. the big question is where is the frontline now.
Zavitne? staro…. ?
There is nothing between urozhaine and staro.
I would say where the nearest defensive position is. Or where there is the greatest chance of being shot.
Well Ukraine will have to clear the sorrounding treelines with cluster munitions first, but then Staromlinivka is next on the east side of Mokri Yali
For rybar, bridgehead west of kosachi laheri is still activ. i dont see confirmation from western osint.
Don’t know where else to post this but news on 21st Brigades composition.https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/polish-made-fighting-vehicles-have-arrived-in-ukraine/ar-AA1eBMq3
David Axe (the author from Forbes) uses a mix of random TikTok videos and our site to write up his articles. There are a lot of incorrect information in his articles, because he doesn’t verify stuff. And btw he also doesn’t credit anybody in most case.
Good analysis from Meduza, as always:
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/08/11/a-pivotal-moment-for-the-2023-summer-offensive
As to the Russian troops near Kupyansk, here is what they say: “Russia’s command has gradually been bringing new troops to this part of the front, chiefly regiments and brigades from the Western Military District that have, until recently, been recuperating on leave”.
That doesn’t mean anything at all. In the course of the war we saw how much the Russians burned their soldiers. The Russians have already lost far too many brigades trying to capture anything.
I am starting to get the feeling, that ukrainian leaders start the blame game concerning a failed offensive. For a long while I thought it is also part of the political game to get more. But now I start thinking that they do not believe in a success anymore. That would be a very bad sign, and a bad signal to Russia of weakness. On the other hand: Pretend to be weak, when you are… Read more »
And if you are weak you should pretend that you are only pretending.
So you are starting seeing the truth
Recognizing the truth is relative… UKR have recognized the truth since the beginning of the war and have accordingly constantly adapted to the situation. Unlike RUS, which took over a year to learn from mistakes and adapt its forces to the situation on the ground. But it is also true that this war will bring nothing at all to RUS, apart from suffering and misery.
heh, I see it opposite. They have already taken donbas and landbridge to crimea so they have “something” in plus. if you talk about dead soldiers? they dont care so from their side they are winning. unfortunately UKR propaganda made worse expectations and lie about rus, that they are not fighitng without equipment etc. bet hey they are taking Kupyansk again so someone is lieing here
I don’t know what you’re trying to tell us. What does that have to do with the fact that both armies are adapting to reality?
Ruzzias economy is paying dearly
I doubt that anyone sees the ‘truth’ in this war. Everybody has great problems predicting the future, let alone the course of a war. If what we see is all we get concerning the counteroffensive, then I will have to admit that Russians managed,adapted better and are stronger military than I thought. But that also does not change that Ukraine can and does win the war of attrition.
Well Ukraine did everything right. It adapted correctly to new situations, it often found new ways to employ its equipment and it was very proactive in its foreign policy. It really is the west’s fault for not having provided Ukraine with proper weapons – especially modern planes and long range missiles – since we also have to protect Taiwan and ourselves. It’s going to be a long war
I would be cautious in the blame game. If Ukraine wants to keep winning the war of attrition, then it has to manage politics. There are at least 3 major factors concerning this war. Russian adaption, management, the ukrainian side and western support. The western dragging of its feet concerning capabilities is …. but the support is also without historical precedence.
oh there is precedence, let alone WW2- Russo-Finland war (too little too late) or lend and lease for USSR after 41. And then you got multiple proxy wars – Korean, Vietnam, African local wars, Iraqi-Irani war, Afg79 or first Gulf War in 1991.
There are a many factors concerning this, that are very different from any war you mentioned. I would point to the nuclear car and to the region especially. The cold war wars all happened very far away from the opposing powers and WW2 was non nuclear until it wasn’t. I don’t know if history will call this a proxy war, but it sure is on the door steps of Moscow.
The West has more than enough for protecting Taiwan and themselves. They didn’t deliver those weapons to Ukraine only because of nuclear escalation fears.
I don’t think they’re doing so bad the leadership is going to go into meltdown. Media just had unrealistic expectations and seemed to forget that the only thing Russians litter more of than smokes and bottles are landmines.
Yes, I also think this is mainly a political leadership dilemma. The war of attrition is being won. This autumn and winter will be very interesting politically. Let’s see if the military reality can help this autumn. Ukraine is till winning if things stay the way they are. But not quickly, and that is something Ukraine will have to accept. Going to be hard, I guess.
It’s important to keep in mind that the Western commanders haven’t fought a war like this before either. It’s as much a learning experience for them as Ukraine. NATO forces are used to supremacy in all domains. They aren’t used to fighting without air dominance. NATO forces have historically proven as vulnerable as any other when removing air power (e.g., in ambushes).
They are doing bad. Not taking Robotyne after 2 months 8 days of fighting can be considered a failure. But Ukraine is not to blame for it, US/EU are.
Ukraine has seen minor success in multiple sectors on the front despite equipment shortcomings. I don’t think you can consider their performance bad given the circumstances. Local failures are a part of even highly successful offensives. The UAF are still a capable fighting force, it would be truly bad performance if they allowed their units to be depleted and lose combat effectiveness.
When I told you the same about a month ago, you said it’s just preparation phase, the “real” offensive is yet to come and it will succeed
Western garbage aid is the only reason for this failure, they deliver everything too little too late
Yes, I would have said Ukraine tried maneuver, didn’t work, and switched to attrition to prepare maneuver again. I go still go by that. They will try maneuver again and I still think there is a chance for success. But I get the feeling that Ukraine may not believe in it anymore. Which would point to it probably not happening. That western support is part of that equation is trivial.
The counter-offensive only begins when the minefields and defensive positions have been overcome and taken in the designated areas. It is still an exploratory situation with smaller conquests, but these are not decisive for a counter-offensive. These are villages that were crossed on the way there.
An offensive begins when the UKR has reached the outskirts of major cities.
Dude, this is THE offensive. It just doesn’t look the way you hoped, that’s why you’re shifting the goalposts and making excuses for failures.
Ukraine might overcome some mine fields and fortifications over months of grinding, but Russia prepares new ones. It’s process that could last for decades at the current pace of advance.
Bachmut could be on the verge of an offensive, but that’s not the case there either. Overcoming positions is not offensive combat, but reconnaissance. The UKR will probably start its first real offensives in autumn.
“Real offensives”, that’s what they said would happen in July or August.
When it’s October or November and barely anything will have changed on the frontline, will you still be hoping for so-called real offensives? Or might switch to more realistic approach?
UKR army is following lot of Sun Zu tactics and concepts …from deception tactics to psychological warfare…. Well dosed not too much like mosquitos bites… Let time and UKR military command do their job
Ukraine is evacuating Kupiansk, Russians were gathering a large force of over 100k troops there, probably a major offensive is about to go down.
I don’t believe 100k are gathered near Kupiansk. Where would they come from? There may be 10-15 K at most. If they manage to take Sinkivka, it will already be a success.
Russian army is over 1 million with an additional reserve of 2 million. What we now see is the step from the so called “military special operation” to a full size war. Sorry for using the Russian term.
I would have bought that story before 2022. Now I don’t. Russia has just enough to (not always) hold the front and achieve local successes.
If they had an extra 100k troops, why did they wait until now to take them out of hiding?
they do have a men in population, i wouldnt call them reserve in the army and no, R is not having its best units saved behind borders to counter NATO. Army over 1M is together combat/non-combat personnel and basically over 80% of land combat capabilities is on UKR. Theyre stretched and there is no immediate 2M in reserve. Thats bs.
https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%97%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D1%96_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8_%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%97_%D0%A4%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%86%D1%96%D1%97
and thats your only argument? Wiki article? I can also count that if they have 250k conscipts each year, or veterans from Chechen wars, that they can reach people with military experience. I stand my argument that Russia cannot field 2M people in reserve in UKR, cause logistic, money, food, equip. Also, if they had 2M in reserve, they wouldnt recruit contractors or mobiks. Are we done?
also please study what reservist mean and what it is the application of the term. Being in reserve does not mean RU can afford to move them all tomorrow anywhere.You have to summon them and field them, thats what BARS units in ukraine are. Thank you.
Yes we are done. The future will tell us the outcome no matter what you are wishing.
thought so. Everything goes according to three days plan.
The reserve is in case martial law is declared and the fatherland needs to be defended. But that is not the case with Russia.
most of this 1 million are conscript in marine.
In the reallity, russia start this war with around 150K troops and 150k alternativ units .
no secret army look the defeat of russia, waiting to counterattack when ukrain will be in novossorisk and rostov. stop dreaming.
agree with you, people dont realize scales in current war, there are ciphers like U 700k, RU 400k, but thats just total number, including non-combat personnel, national guard or Rosgvardia on the other side and on large front. Its not WW2 anymore- when you hear stories about Staromayorske U sending 70 men or 100 at Klisichivka, there could be 10-15k on offensive direction(orichiv, kupyansk)
but its not that every day mass of 10k people is attacking at one point.
just dozens or hundreds of local skirmishes all along 1200km
Looks like Urozhaine is ripe
Tomorrow.
More than two months after the start of the c-offensive, does anybody know (or think they know) whether all the brigades/battalions are now engaged in combat operations?
Here is what I wrote a few weeks ago about the new brigades.
Interesting thanks. I jumped to your conclusion but will also read the rest. One comment: while I don’t have info of my own, I find it hard to believe that there is evidence of only 6 brigades out of 36 having taken part in offensive operations.
UKR are still with ongoing force recon operations… the real counter offensive will only be launched when enough logistic hubs / ammunitions depots will be destroyed then if Crimea isolation is granted the real offensive(s) will begin.. it is obvious
It is then obvious that they will not launch it this year then, there is at best 3 month left if Fall is not rainy too early. “Winter is coming”.
When I wrote the article, there was only 6.
Now, we can also add 118th Mech near Robotyne and 38th Marine in Ukrozhaine.
Maybe there are other brigades, but I didn’t find visual proof.
Ok noted, at least 8 out of 36 confirmed for now. Do you sometimes watch the Military Summary channel? The Belarussian guy (I know – he is pro-Russian) often speaks about combat engagements of this or that brigade.
Nice piece – even with just mostly forgotten high school French I could parse the details.
One big unknown is whether Ukraine’s committed brigades are even fully deployed. It appears that brigades are administrative formations, with ad hoc battle groups formed to cover the front. These appear to be regularly rotated, which could be why units go so long without coming off the line in full.
I check sometimes for the list of ukrainian brigades for the c offensive by Jerome. Right now I find all but 6 in the deployment map in the area of the front line. Some of those seem to be just deployed to the area but not confirmed fighting yet. Jerome only had some or none of the new assault brigades of the national guard. It would seem to me that Ukraine still has enough for… Read more »
The offensive Guard is spread across the front
Supposedly Wagner are leaving Belarus because Lukashenko refuses to finance Wagner… Hey, these are mercenaries. If Ukraine were to pay them now, they would definitely be fighting for Ukraine… You might think so
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Marinka still not fully taken. This is now an even larger farce than Bachmut.
It looks like the Russians want to take Kupyansk in the north. I think that will be a hopeless undertaking, there is a river in the middle that is a very good barrier.
And a ammunition factory has exploded in Moscow … Haha
Russia will continue to launch “counter offensives” just to see media titles announcing that russia is launching offensives and increase their weight in the media instead of Ukrainian positive events…. I think the silence strategy from Ukraine is dumb… They should have done like russians claiming every day tactical victories ( even if it’s wrong ) to counter russian media predominances
It’s the result that counts and not whether one is silent or “noisy” about its actions.
Not at all… media and propaganda influence political decisions and indirectly the UKR support aids …. Results count at 80% but if they are not visible or claimed the psychological effects on the population and allies will be impacted …you see what happens in USA where they are begining to doubt about the efficiency of the counter offensives
Yes. Its why UKR communication is so hard. In intern, they need good news. But for internationnal, they need bad news to keep their support mobilized.
Exactly… bad news will show to the western countries that UKR need much more weapons and equipments but in reality I think they already have much more than they are claiming…nobody is counting all the captured russian vehicles and weapons
they still doesnt have up to date aviation. They still use light mrap like heavy vci. Still no fox3 air air. no anti marine or anti submarine capacity.
We can do a long list to what they need.
And of course, everybody know and take in count that ukr capture a lot of russian material.
Credibility is important for Ukraine, it doesn’t need to convince western governments, it needs to convince western people if they want to get more support, claiming fake victories would strengthen the pre-established western view that Ukraine is as corrupt and morally bleak as Russia.
Russia might also be trying to reach the river and set up their defences there so that they can put more troops south, in Donetsk.
They’ll have to come down behind the river for that to work out, I suspect. And looks to me like Kyiv has concentrated 6-8 reasonably fresh brigades in the area. Could make for a nice trap.
Syrkski is directing the defenses in Kupyansk personally.