The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 5th August 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

  • Russian forces entered Novoselivske and lost a few tanks on the southern outskirts. The settlement is now contested. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Vilshana, Synkivka

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Bilohorivka

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Maksym Zhorin, Major of 3rd Assault Brigade, says Ukrainian forces control half of Klishchiivka, and the rest is under their fire control. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Kurdyumivka

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

  • Ukrainian forces targeted Russian positions with cluster ammunition north of Vodyane, showing that the enemy managed to recapture previously lost positions. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Avdiivka

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka, Staromayorske

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kherson Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Gordon

By the end of August, we will see something, or we will see nothing. So far I have minimal dynamics with difficult battles. it is very clear that russia uses aviation in the Zaporozhye direction near Robotyn and Staromayorsk, which means that there are certain problems on both sides. Something incomprehensible is happening near the Cossack camps,

Gordon

 in a few days we will see if the UA has gained a foothold there. Judging by the way the mobilization is going in Ukraine, it is either accumulating and preparing new reserves, or the situation with the reserves is already reaching great losses, and they simply need to be replaced by someone. The number of volunteers who come to the military headquarters is already close to zero.

Gordon

You have no idea what is happening here)

Dmitrij

In general, the Russians, after their every missile attack on the residential infrastructure of Ukraine, report the destruction of hundreds of mercenaries from NATO countries, generals from Western countries who allegedly held a meeting there, but in reality they kill the civilian population every time, and almost never shoot at the location of the military as they claim it.

Dmitrij

An ordinary terrorist state, which, if not for their nuclear weapons, would have to be eliminated as ISIS

PERTUBARO

Such sensitive meetings or simple officers gathering occur in underground basements, or HQ centers deep under buildings ! It is the basics of military intel covering …
Just braindead people are able to believe russian lies …. Does someone thinks really that ranked military will gather in open space or high level buildings…

Dmitrij

I am from Ukraine, I looked at the list of the dead from my region on this site for several people, then one of them was an electrician in civilian life, the other was an auto mechanic, but in no way could they be officers in the army. I am sure that on this website of the Russians there are many names and surnames of ordinary ordinary Ukrainian soldiers who really died, but not in… Read more »

Alfred

We are near to one and a half year of war. Perhaps most of the real officers now are dead or wounded. But an army needs commanding officers, so they have to promote anyone.

Patrick

Thank you for your comment Dmitrij. It’s very possible that the term “officer” is wrongly used in some cases. The information about the deaths of those people is unfortunately largely confirmed by Ukrainian sources. Out of curiosity, where in Ukraine are your from? I spent many years in your country.

Dmitrij

But now, 250 thousand dead in this war is complete nonsense, so I consider this site completely created for the sake of psychological impact on Ukrainians and Western audiences. For comparison, I often visit several regions of Western Ukraine, namely Lviv and Chernivtsi regions, coming to the cemetery to honor the memory of the heroes of Ukraine, you can see the graves of soldiers who died in the

Dmitrij
first phase of the 2014-2015 war, and fresh ones after February 2022, then the graves after a full-scale invasion more than 4-5 times. 
Dmitrij
Taking into account the fact that most of the soldiers of Ukraine come from the west of the country, and during the first phase of the conflict, the losses were in the region of 5-6 thousand, it can be assumed that now they do not exceed 40 thousand killed.
Dmitrij

If the Russian Federation uses prisoners throughout the war, then the residents of the occupied Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which, in fact, no one counts. If you add up the total losses of the Russian Federation in full form from PMCs to mobilized LDNR, then the figure there will be simply catastrophic, but not for them, because they don’t care. They have the main goal of all their lives is to

Dmitrij

capture more territories, while being the largest state in the world, they want even more lands.capture more territories, while being the largest state in the world, they want even more lands.but how people will live on these lands, it makes no difference to them

Dmitrij

And the fact how people will live in those territories does not matter to them, there the whole essence of the nation and the state is built on the number of territories.

Coerenza

I’m sorry about what’s happening. you have all my sympathy

if I may ask a question: in your opinion, how is the war more likely to end?

Dmitrij

Honestly, I no longer believe in the unconditional victory of Ukraine, probably the maximum is the return of Zaporozhye, the south of Donetsk and the Left Bank of Kherson, after which we will be forced to sit down at the table with the Russians in front of the gates to Crimea. The territories that were seized in 2014 will become the subject of bargaining for many years, where everything will

Dmitrij

depend on the countries of the Western bloc and their pressure on the Russian Federation, if the pressure continues strong and the Russian Federation cannot maintain those territories and the people there themselves will want to return to Ukraine, or if the collapse of the Russian Federation and Ukraine will be able to return their own, as well as Georgia and Moldova their lands.

Dmitrij

it’s bad that there are so few characters given per message. So it would be possible to write a lot more about the relations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and how, in a few weeks of propaganda, they began to wish death to all Ukrainians, although before that they had traveled to Ukraine and nothing threatened them here.

Coerenza

Thanks for the reply

I agree with your consideration, messages that are too short prevent you from expressing an articulated thought (war is complex, it cannot be reduced to slogans)

Patrick

One word: the updated information now mentions 175,000 soldiers killed (not 250,000). It is still an overestimation because the administrators themselves mention that there are mistakes, double entries, etc. that need to be addressed. However, the information about the so-called ‘officers’ killed is largely accurate because most of the deaths can be verified using UKRAINIAN sources.

Patrick

This means that the intention is to try at least to a have a truthful picture and that once the database of KIA has been more or less cleaned up, which can take months I imagine, this site may be used as a reference to estimate the total number of fatalities.

Coerenza

For now there is too much propaganda. The data you report seems very high to me (the data from the Pentagon are lower), in fact, if you also add the wounded etc. you should reach 750k (if for every dead there are 3 others who don’t fight anymore) … but then who’s at the front?

Coerenza

Accounting data for both had come out last year and, from what I remember, they spoke of about 50k Russians (based on death benefits paid, which varies by dragon) and 40k Ukrainians (floral tributes for soldiers’ families) … now this data is secret and no longer publicly updated

Patrick

I agree with you and think the total KIA figure is a overestimation (although the list of officers is largely accurate). My personal opinion is that both sides have less than 100 KIA each.

Coerenza

I think that’s the estimate too
For the continuation of the war I am pessimistic for both sides. In 2023 the fronts changed very little but the losses suffered are significant. By now the surprise no longer exists in recent weeks the Ukrainian generals announced the attack to the north even before the Russian departments moved…and shortly after the Ukrainian reinforcements arrived on the front

Max Beckhaus

Interessting answer to the question why the USA does not want Ukraine to win by Ben Hodges, Ex US General:
1) Self deterence out of fear of escalation.
And now it gets interessting:
2) A backdoor deal with China along the line: Do not do anything that destabilizes Russia to a breaking point, like Ukraine winning the war, for a relative neutrality of China.

Max Beckhaus

The destabilization theme also plays into self deterence, fearing chaos in Russia may lead to nuclear proliferation.

Djdjbd

Let me ask, why do all these conspiracies about insufficient aid come down to big daddy USA (and seemingly no one else) not wanting to win? American policy is challenged literally all the time. So if American leadership is failing Europe, where’s the blame for the weak leadership in Europe? If someone went ahead and sent their US-made fighters to Ukraine, the US will still sell them replacements.

Djdjbd

It would imperil the US military industrial complex (and economy at large) to take such a firm stance on other countries not sending American fighters or other equipment to assist Ukraine. Honestly, I think if a single European leader decided to ignore the US on some of its policies, the US would quickly fall in line.

Djdjbd

I may be misremembering, but I believe this is more or less what happened with Germany and her tanks earlier in the war. And what is America but a fatter Germany? 😉

Andrew

Because the Biden Administration has staked so much on being perceived as the father of the free world in the hope of winning re-election.

East/North Europeans get too far ahead, they get accused of wanting to escalate. West/South play the US off the others. All so Biden can look like he’s FDR 2.0

In Partisan America everyting comes down to spin management by one side’s trolls.

Djdjbd

Polls of ordinary Americans suggest European leaders better start ignoring Biden. There is waning support for continued financing, it’s pretty close to 50/50.

Max Beckhaus

The USA is the only one with the resources, to make Ukraine win fast without impeding its own security greatly. And btw., Europe sends long range capabilities and the USA did not fall in line. Same seems to be true about f16s, they will be European.

Djdjbd

Sometimes it takes awhile to fall in line, I didn’t mean that it would be instant. How many previous ‘red lines’ have the allies already crossed at this point? The US is also gearing up to potentially fight China at some point, Europe knows this. I may not be European but I’m pretty confident you all have money, politicians, military leaders, and defense contractors too. Would be wise to use them.

Patrick

Dear Jerome, why did you delete two of my posts in an act of censorship? Why do you interfere with the right to receive and impart information and ideas? And why do you do it selectively by leaving Tristan’s post, to which I can no longer respond?

Patrick

I did provide a link Jerome. It’s the War Tears website: https://wartears.org/special/officers
And I have the links (i.e evidence) for 14 verified cases out of 17. I can provide them upon request. There can be reasons for deleting comments but in this case I really don’t understand.

Patrick

No censorship will change the fact that the information about the 2,126 dead Ukrainian officers is largely accurate and that War Tears is not a propaganda tool – at least not for casualties (although mistakes are possible). I managed to verify 14 out of 17 cases and will continue doing so. I will provide updated figures in the coming days.

Patrick

For those interested in verified information, please note that the 2126 so-called ‘officers’ listed as killed on the Russian site ‘War Tears’ are real people (and not fictitious characters of Russian propaganda) who have lost their lives in combat. As verifying all 2126 names is time consuming, I checked the first 10 and found corroboration of their deaths in Ukrainian websites.

Tristan

Since you cannot be trusted, I checked the list of the high ranking officers (generals and colonels).
The two generals exist and have a wikipedia page. With no mention of their death.

Concerning the colonels, no proof of their death is given, just the usual Russian MoD bullshit about long-range missile striking command posts.

Tristan

Not everything is fake (there are some genuine KIA, they also list officers dying from natural causes or accident), but there are enough doubt about the website (their goal is to spy on Ukrainians) so that we can dismiss whatever they write.

Patrick

According to Deepstatemap, Novoselivske is under Russian control, which confirms the claim made by the MOD three days ago.

Max Beckhaus

They just got lucky that Russia actually took it. Let´s see how long they hold it his time around. Even a blind chicken finds a corn every once n a while.

Patrick

I don’t know what luck has to do with it. The MOD information was correct and Deepstatemap managed to verify it.

Max Beckhaus

Since 99% of their statements are false, and it may have been false back then, it seems more likely that they got lucky tha anything else.
Patrick, seriously, i have very big problems taking you serious if you use the Russian MoD as a source.

Patrick

I don’t use the Russian MOD as a source. I rely on Deepstatemap for evolutions on the battleground and Meduza for serious analysis. However, when the MOD announces the capture of a settlement, the information is usually accurate (it was also the case with Sergiivka: https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1684009990346899456)

Patrick

Just pay attention next time, you will see. As for their casualty figures, I don’t even read them.

dolgan

Unconfirmed: some russian source report a small ukr bridgehead on the left bank (not just on island) in Kozachi Laheri. Its very close to the highway M14.

Defenders were sent in zapo region and replaced by mobiks.

Patrick

Russia-appointed Kherson Oblast, Ukraine Governor Saldo says Ukrainian forces attempt to land near Kozachi Laheri, Kherson Oblast prevented by Russian Dnepr group and boats destroyed: Blog via Public Telegram Board.

Max Beckhaus

Oh cool, so they actually landed successfully, nice to know.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Max, it seem counter-battery campaign results appear more and more in open sources. Carefully starting to hear that in Zapo segment, U have upper hand and even possibly more barrels than R (did not specify if thats the same for Rocket Arty like Grad, probably not), with downside of less ammo for longer suppresion fire. Also need few more days about Urozhaine and Novoselivke…

Max Beckhaus

Oh yes, U destroys well above average tube and MRLS systems since the start of the counteroffensive (Oryx data) while retaining a slightly better than average loss ratio. So they do dominate the counterbattery fight, which “Popov”?, the dismissed Russian general basicly admited. Now this is obviously due to the U advantage in precission ammunitions.

Max Beckhaus

But the number of tubes in the field is probably redundant, since the amount of ammunition available is the problem, and still more so for U. Concering MRLS, there are a lot being destroyed, but there is also a lot of munition for it, since rockets have a longer shelve life than projectiles. In short, U has the precission advantage, R the mass advantage. U is gnawing away at the R artillery

Max Beckhaus

but I fear it will take longer than this summer/autumn for this to make an impact. My hope would be, that they manage to kill experienced artillery crews with the counterbattery fire. That may bring good results faster than waiting for Russia to run out of munitions and tubes. If Ukraine wants big results this year, it will get bloody. I just hope they stay cautious, but the political pressure…

JohnnyBeerGr8

given the stock advantage or mass produce in soviet union, sources say it will take significantly longer to get to parity in MLRS (regardless that Grad have 20km range and will be beaten by drones and interdict mission). So in SPG and towed U should have upper hand in Zapo section, not whole U battlefield. Precision wont help if you need to cover the area, albeit more expensive than barrage fire.

Max Beckhaus

I would personally bet that U has a tube advantage in the whole theater, BUT they have a big munition problem for their soviet tubes and they ain´t swimming in NATO standart either. If you are dominated in counterbattery fire, it doesn´t make much sense to field more tubes, than you need to use the available munitions. While if you have a lot of tubes with few munitions and doinate the

Max Beckhaus

counterfire, you might aswell field them to have an optimal artillery cover, lure russia into counterfire and cover the NATO tubes with mass of “worthless” soviet tubes. But those are just my 2 pence, but the US leak would support that.

Andrew

Good RUSI report on the fires contest. Looks like slow, steady degradation of orc ability to maintain support at the level required.

I still assess (Google Rogue Systems Recon if you’d like) that this is per plan. Go slow at start to empower rapid movement later

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-artillery-war-ukraine-challenges-and-innovations

Question

Hello! Question guy again.

Can someone tell me why especially near the towns Avdiika and Toretsk the RUS nearly made no progress in the hole last months? Is it because both towns were already front town in 2014 or why are both so strong or can be defined like „little“ Bachmuts?

And another question: Any idea why there is no UKR offensive north of Adiivka around Stepove? Or RUS attacks?

Question

Seems like a long-lasting stop near these lot of train tracks there?

dolgan

All the old dombass frontline is strongly and deeply fortified. trench, underground bunker, tunnel, etc . And at the beginning of the war best unit of ukr where concentrated there.

I dont find stepove. But north of avdivka, both camp attack and counterattack in the area of vesele and kamianke. Both settlement regulary change of hands, but no adeversary capture ennemy stronghold.

Patrick

I agree. There is absolutely no reliable data on UKR losses. Meduza is only interested in RU casualties and – for obvious reasons – western intelligence won’t disclose what they may know.

Patrick

The (Russian) project ‘War Tears’ reports about 248,911 killed Ukrainians as of today. They recognize they are struggling to get an accurate picture of fatalities and have revised previous estimates downwards:
https://wartears.org/en/posts/math-model/
 

Patrick

Also worth noting is that they have documented 2,126 killed Ukrainian “officers” so far.   
https://wartears.org/en/special/officers
 

Djdjbd

In a later post they revised to ~175,000 KIA. Title is something like ‘model v3’. Admittedly I can’t really read the website well on a mobile platform. The charts are impossible to read.

Patrick

Thanks a lot, I missed this update. So they continue cleaning up their records and taking out the double-entries, which is good.

Tristan

Wartears is a russian site that incites families of Ukrainian MIA to give them information.

In other words, they ask pyschologically vulnerable people to give military information to their enemy.

Does that ring any bell to you ?

Patrick

Ukraine has the same kind of programmes towards Russians.
And anyway, your comment is off topic.

Tristan

You are quoting a site that is run by the Russians to spy on the Ukrainians. It’s probably affiliated to the GRU, the FSB and/or another Russian secret service.

Do you really believe that their number (and anything they pretend to have documented) are true ?

Patrick

I certainly don’t think everything is made up. Take the 2,126 killed Ukrainian “officers”. It can all be verified.

Tristan

I can all be forgery. Russian often do that.

Patrick

As I said, it can easily be verified – and you’re exaggerating: if the Russians told you the earth was round, you would claim it’s flat.

Tristan

Go ahead, verify it.

Until you hae done that, don’t trust a website litteraly made for spying and deceiving Ukrainians and other “enemies” of Russia.

JohnnyBeerGr8

i dont want to get in between, but if western media claim same amount of officers killed on R side, than probability that U has less then 2k is higher than having same numbers. And yes, the site is shady with its formulation with pro-R narratives and formulations.

Patrick

Why should I verify something that I think is accurate? The burden is on you to prove the list of names is a fake one. Good luck.

Tristan

You’re the one quoting this doubious site. You are the one who trust their numbers and follow their narrative.

So, the burden of proof is on you. Until you have verified, we shall treat their claim like Russian MoD and other usual liars: it is just disinformation.

Patrick

I like your “we” shall treat. Very humble. My intention is not to convince Your Majesty. I just hope that there are regular, no-nonsense guys reading this and willing to think with their own heads.

Kay

248,000 dead Ukrainians is actually an exaggeration. I don’t know how they got that number. This value is so exaggerated that this website stinks at a distance of 1000 m.
Of the 2000 named officers, over 80% are non-commissioned officers, but they are not officers. Putting them in the same pot as generals is stupidity or bad propaganda

Patrick

They’ve revised the number to 175,000 (see message from Djdjbd) and it will go further down as it’s work in progress. Regarding the 2000, what is important is to know whether the info about their deaths is true or is “Russian propaganda”. Watch my next post in a few minutes.

Tristan

We = all the regular, no-nonsense guys reading this and not buying your Russian propaganda.

Patrick

Next time speak for yourself. It’ll be more honest and less disdainful.

jacks

I would’ve given you some benefit of a doubt had you not made this stupidly illogical affirmation. The burden of proof obviously lies with the one that claims something unikely is true. I can make a lot of claims that are next to impossible to disprove, that doesn’t make them true.

Patrick

I provided the evidence and my post was deleted. What do you think about that?

Max Beckhaus

I still think that the US intelligence numbers of the leak are good. I believe the leak was real and i do not see the reason why the pentagon should spread fake numbers in its “top secret” cleared ranks. But that is just one set of data for the 28.2.23.

dolgan

With time, leaks was wrong about ukrain situation.

For me, its a fortitude operation. and i didnt use it like a source because i cant know what is true and what is fake. And i dont need it .

Kay

no one needs that

Patrick

“Ukrainian forces enter Urozhaine in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine”: Blog Photo via Twitter. Awaiting confirmation or refutation

Max Beckhaus

So i started some data analysis of different data sets we have. Chapter I is the famous “russian personnel losses” Theme.
If you extrapolate the pentagon leaks via their ratio to MoD Ukraine “liquidations” you get about 65k KIA and 278k WIA.
Here is the link if you are interested.

Patrick

Good initiative. I suggest you factor in Meduza’s excellent recent analysis according to which between 40,000 and 55,000 Russian men under the age of 50 died by May 27, 2023: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/07/10/bring-out-your-dead

JohnnyBeerGr8

Its all pieces to the puzzle, but we still dont have full picture. How many injured got back, how many injured refused to go back, how many injured cannot do critical jobs back home and that will be also economical loss. Also we discussed that probably RU is still able to sustain current losses with hidden mobilization. They gotta leave U one way or another (in a bag..)

Max Beckhaus

Thank you, I wasn’t aware of that. I will include that, when I come around.

Patrick

You’re most welcome

Max Beckhaus

https://militaryland.net/forum/russian-invasion-2022/data-analysis/#post-488
The US leak and Meduza seem to validate each other. More over we get some feeling for seriously wounded Russians.

Tristan

The Pentagon numbers were clearly underestimations. Their number for material losses were simply copied from Oryx (which is an underestimation of the real losses). Their numbers for casualties were simply not realistic. I mean, only 15k death for ukrainians aftr 1 year of war ? Only 3 Russians dead for each vehicule confimed to be lost ? Not even plausible.

Tristan

Other information (such as the equipment of the new brigades) were also not what is now observed, either because the information of the Pentagon leaks were not true, of because Ukrainians changed the equipment of each brigade.

Maybe the best thing we can do is to simply ignore the Pentagon numbers, and estimate Russian losses to 2/3 of the Ukr MoD numbers. So, around 150k atm.

Max Beckhaus

Personally I am very sceptical about all these estimates. Even more so using some rule of thumb out of nowhere. The US leaks state themself that they offer those numbers with low confidence in them. I think these speculations about Russian or ukrainian losses a more or less pointless. Counting a destroyed BMP is one thing, guessing how many sat in or on it and came out of it and died or just got

Max Beckhaus

Wounded is a completely different thing. Moreover we have no good idea if they get replaced easily and how well the replacements are being trained. Russia surely has enough population to replace them for a very long time. Replacing the BMP though, ain’t that easy. So my rule of thumb is, that the amount of Russians being killed does not change the war greatly once the professional infantry is gone

Max Beckhaus

And it is very safe to assume that the professional infantry is pretty much gone.

Tristan

For BMP, Russia still have a lot of (old) armored vehicles in reserve (at least BMP-1 and MT-LB). Same thing for towered artillery (SPG are more limited). The bottleneck is their capacity to do both production of modern stuff AND upgade of old equipment.

For human losses, sure the estimates are rough, but for a 18 months high-intensity war, 150k dead Russians is a bit conservative.

Max Beckhaus

About 210000 soldiers dead or wounded so they have to leave service is no joke and does not seem out of proportion to me. Btw. the tank losses there are higher than those of Oryx then. So the copy paste is not true. Oryx had 1782 tanks at the 1.3. and the leak is from 28.2. with about 2000.

Tristan

200k Russian casualties was conservative estimate last January. You can easily add 100k more now. And that’s the floor: the upper limit is around 700k iirc.

And that’s not surprising. Let’s say there are 150k dead Russians (so a total of about 500k casualties), that’s only 250 dead/day. Quite low for a 1000km frontline of high-intensity warfare.

Max Beckhaus

I come up with about 210k seriously wounded, that is unable to fight on, and killed in action and about 350k casualties with a low confidence in those numbers.
I still rather use and extrapolate well researched numbers (Meduza) and US intelligence numbers than what you feel is low for this war.

Tristan

I’d be happy if there were so few dead soldiers on both side.

Unfortunately, the many testimonies, visual evidence of material losses etc suggest a much higher body count.

Concerning the Meduza study, I found 2 inconsistencies in their data and a possible major biais (poor people die way more often than those rich enough to be included in the study)

Max Beckhaus

Poor relatives have a high incentive to inherit the payment for the death of the soldier.
Which inconsistencies do you refer to?

Tristan

Poor people are usually the ones who are deprived of their rights (including inheritance) by the bureaucracy.

There is 1 inconsistency about the covid number (data show that males are more vulnerable than females, yet the gap decrease during the period) and 1 between their first graph (with a lot of death in 2023) and their second one (almost no death in 2023)

Patrick

“Poor people are usually the ones who are deprived of their rights (including inheritance) by the bureaucracy”.

There may be cases but there is no compelling evidence of something like this happening on a large scale. So this point is moot or speculative at best.

Max Beckhaus
Perturabo

Beware of what could happen in Niger where Wagner is manipulating the government and will do anything to initiate war between CEDECAO and Niger to divert the world eyes from Ukraine ! They bet that Ukraine will be left on the background and that some equipments from NATO will be transferred to Africa not instead of UKR…Watch out…

Lev Vuksin

Especially with Nigeria’s senate voting down military intervention that leaves it up to Senegal Benin and Ghana so France will most likely need to provide the majority of the muscle.

JohnnyBeerGr8

you mean they will have free forces after they withdrew from Mali and Burkina Faso and after Macron said they will avoid anachronistic local fights for power? Looks like more CEDCAO intervention alliance if they decide to step in to country.

SHALOM

Ukraine is reported to have breached the first line of defense, are there any authoritative sources for this?

dolgan

its depend what you want to say. They breach the first strong defense lign and reach the first “official”defense lign with antitank stucture. east of robotyne. confirm on video one week ago. i dont know if they cross this lign.

But now russian fan base start to say that its doesnt count like the first lign … I think they will play like that for a long time.

dolgan

fresh news. near verbove, ukrain is supposed to be inside the antitank ditch.

They dont breach this lign but they are inside.

JohnnyBeerGr8

if they are inside, its breach already. Its not breach in terms of moving forward to second one, cause they want to secure, widen the breach and for sure will be complicated logistic to small point of the line. If there will be corridor 5-10km wide, we can say 1st line got broken in this battlefield segment (eg Robotyne- Verbove wide). They can be blocked with one road only, eg R in Kiyv.

dolgan

No . one lign is different element .

Its something like this : A glacis with mines, anti tank ditch, glacis with mines, dragon teeth, trenches and bunker to defend the lign.

It could be more things or less. all parts are probably not finished. for example, in the video near verbove, small glacis (why they dont cut this fickung tree lign?) , no or unsuffisant mines .

Last edited 9 months ago by dolgan
JohnnyBeerGr8

yes, i cannot read, antitank ditch is not trench that is behind it, my apologies. On the other side, serves as trench for U forces and should help them to hold it and try to reach trench behind antitank ditch

dolgan

Yes. and if its not defend and build correctly, they just have to follow the ditch to gain field control.

Kay

If one line is broken, at least two more will follow. It is doubtful whether the UKR still has enough material from the previous breakthroughs up to the last line, when you see how much is lost with the first line.

Noelle

these are not lines on the sand (or map) – in some places there are more than ‘3 lines’ in some there is only one, some are formidable obstacles with reinforced bunkers etc, some are just scatered firing positions along the supposed ‘line’.Shortly: what is true in one place may be not a few km in one side or another.
There is no ‘breach’ so to speak as for now. In this particular place->>

Noelle

–> (beginning in moderation)
Ukr. forces reached main ‘1st line’ and are actively trying to recon it and exploit any possible or potential weaknes.
There is not enough RU forces to man or cover the whole and all the ‘lines’ properly. If they find unermanned point and would be able to exploit that, then you will have a ‘breaktrhrough’ (which will need to be properly reinforced ofc.)

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