The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 26th July 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • south of Novoselivske

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • south of Dibrova

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Servicemen of Ukrainian Lyut Assault Brigade ambushed Russian soldiers driving through Klishchiivka. The settlement is now contested. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • north of Khromove, north of Klishchiivka, east of Druzhba

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Avdiivka

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

  • Fighting continues in Staromayorskoye. Ukrainian forces control the northern part of the settlement. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Marinka, Staromayorskoye

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • Russian artillery shelled Ukrainian vehicles east of Robotyne, showing us further Ukrainian advance in the area. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kherson Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Triglav

Staromajorske has been liberated

JohnnyBeerGr8

Seem Urozhaine next to it will be next. Given the systematic approach UAF does to secure its wings.

Patrick

It would make sense. The pace of advance is sthg to watch, as UKR has roughly 2 months left, if we talk about climate conditions, and probably less if we talk about their ability to continue pushing and sustaining high human and material losses.

Kay

Max would now say:
We see a superior UKR that is in the process of destroying all RUS equipment with the help of the USA. The UKR soldiers are machines that are now flattening everyone.

In reality, the delivered cluster bombs are a huge step forward for UKR. Overcoming the minefields actually seems easier.We will see…

JohnnyBeerGr8

that maybe also true, still, there is somewhat 3 truths standing still…Local Air superiority helps to limit movement or penetration in depth, Artillery is god of war and where you dont have soldier´s foot, you dont control the territory. Attrition wise or not. Last not least, defender get the advantages of laying traps, mines, ambushes and is less exposed. Maybe UAF knows more than we do.

JohnnyBeerGr8

(meant in terms of expecting different result, adding more forces, involving 10th corps, shortening window, you name it). Bakhmut is nice symbol, but didnt help RUS in March, wont help UAF in Summer – you will narrow the front, but where you want to push further given the landscape? In north Svatove/Starobilsk cause RUS logistic, but rest woods. South is the key to everything, both sides know it.

Last edited 9 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
Patrick

Yes, cluster bombs are helping. What surprises me is that the Russians are not using them (unless I missed something).

Max Beckhaus

I am hearing they do and did.

Patrick

I heard that too but haven’t seen any evidence, so was assuming it was unfounded rumors. They reportedly have huge amounts. Quite puzzling.

Noelle

both sides used them and for obvious reason (namely: resources) RU used them a LOT. It was a news at the beginning, later became ‘normal’ [see e.g.: https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/02/25/ukraine-russian-cluster-munition-hits-hospital ]. Difference now is that RU munitions are mostly rocket ones and as precise as my drinking piss. UKR got artillery shells which are more precise. –>

Noelle

–> because they are dependend on the gun and explosive payload not the rocket quality (generally targetting efficiency of e.g. Grad we used when I was mandatory conscript almost 30 years ago, was measured in ‘stadiums’. Mostly ‘stadiums off the target’)

Patrick

Thanks – and could you send combat footage showing Russian use of cluster bombs? On the UKR side there is plenty.

Noelle

1st. There is no ‘bombs’ in use (generally). Technically SMD would fulfill that description in clustering variant bit it does not have bomblets (submunitions) but tungsten profiled shrapnels.

Never bothered looking for the video. –>

Noelle

You have got plenty of materials (also from Syria) [ https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/07/28/russia/syria-widespread-new-cluster-munition-use ] [ https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/02/27/ukraine-conflict-tracking-use-of-cluster-munitions-in-civilian-areas/ ]. If you use search on telegram there will be something graphic I suppose.

Noelle

//should be SDB not SMD. next part is awaiting moderation (links)

Max Beckhaus

Doesn’t sound like me, but hey, I wouldn’t mind if it would be like that.
: Correction, they would have 3 months, October is fine too. And the way things stand I get the feeling that the USA will put in more stuff. They try to control it and right now Ukraine is underachieving in their plans. At least that’s my feeling. I am starting to be more annoyed with Sullivan and Biden than Scholz.

Patrick

In October you never know, it’s 50/50. As for the US, I’d better not send you the article about RU-US back-channel discussions in order not to ruin your day…

Max Beckhaus

I read that, consider me not amused, but also not surprised at this point. At this point it’s obvious that the USA doesn’t want Ukraine to win. I accepted that. But there is a chance they miscalculate and or the European vanguard and Ukraine push them to victory. I would bet on something like a 24.2. line, sadly. Let’s hope they sugar it with EU and NATO membership.

Andrew

You’re right on the money about the USA (Biden’s) true aims. Unfortunately for the nitwits who fill the US natsec world, this thing is well out of US control now.

Civil war is coming for the orcs. USA and RF old hands are all screwed, the generation that remembered WW2 is gone. Those in charge now have no clue what this war has unleashed.

Ukraine is going to win, it’ll just take a while.

Max Beckhaus

Yes, may be. I am personally not sure if Ukraine is willing to pay the price for that. If they want to fight it to the end, no matter how long it takes and how many will die, they will win. But they may be bought out of it with EU and NATO candys, if Russia holds together long enough. We shall see.

Last edited 9 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Patrick

To be more precise, the north is controlled by UKR and the south is in the grey area. RU left Staromaiorske but after the photo session UKR had to retreat to the north/north east due to relentless shelling. It reminds me of the situation in Pyatikhatka. Nominally, the settlement is under UKR control but they can’t set up positions there so de facto it’s a grey area.     

JohnnyBeerGr8

thats true, but does not seem RUS have ability to retake it fully back (either Pyataky or Staromaiorske). Urozhaine should be feasible, some experts even say should help with Pryutne sector too. The pace is something hard to predict, In cherson it didnt seem it works that fast either, but there was Dniepr factor and then collapsed fast due to withdrawal, here isnt such factor.

Max Beckhaus

And here is what max really says: One town more or less does not matter, what matters is 1) destroying as much Russian gear as possible, especially more than Russia can produce. 2) Also train ukrainian troops as well as possible, protect them as well as possible, while doing 1) and make them western nations send as much as possible. The ground will come, sooner or later, no need to hurry.

Max Beckhaus

And the good thing is, I have the feeling Ukraine is more or less doing just that.

Max Beckhaus

Also: Bakhmut or any other village have political importance, and therefor especially on moral, but that’s it.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I hear you, Max, i understand you´re saying, its a contest of will, not a sprint. Still, please understand, that these tiny successes shows some trend and fill the space between now and the end. And for armchair general helps to keep mind busy.

Max Beckhaus

Ok, I am in for it for now. Yes, it is about the south, mostly, strategically. But e.g. taking back bakmuth would be politically enough to destabilize Russia further and hold ranks in Ukraine and the West together.
My armchair says, that the southern axis is super hard to crack with the exception of the long supply lines through ukrainian fire. I think the long range logistics attack and >

Max Beckhaus

Frontline artillery counter fire attrition triggered by some attacks is the only way. Maneuver warfare gets stuck in minefields, element of surprise gets stuck in minefields and revealed by drones plus if you start new axis, you start at zero concerning minefields and combined arms without one arm, that is air, is a joke. Ukraine has to kill Russia’s god of war, artillery.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Thats consistent what youre saying for last couple months. I know when Bakhmut is at hand, why not to take it as this was only land victory they were able to achieve over last 10 months, thats major blow to russian propaganda. Without air, its heluwa job, still UAF show slightly better unit cohesion and coordination on squadron level. Given Russian (counter) attack doctrine, they must bring new

Max Beckhaus

What the hell is wrong with the NYT? If they really believe it, how the hell can they write it? Are they happy to actively kill Ukrainians?

Patrick

The press is free in the US. Get used to it.

Max Beckhaus

I am complaining how they use their freedom. Get used to it.

Tristan

They don’t care about Ukrainians. They just want to sell paper.

Firebody

What did they write?

Kay

Unfortunately, I don’t know what kind of article he means either. NYT writes stories about this war almost every day, and almost all of them are by journalists who construct and write their own opinions. Of these, some are objective and others are biased and self-assured. In the end you don’t even need to read most of it.

Tristan

Max is talking about the article that states Ukraine’s main push just began south of Orkhiv.

If this is true, it is the equivalent of NYT saying “Allies main landing just began in Normandy” on June 6, 1944.

Djdjbd

The day before NYT reported Russia claiming Ukraine began their main thrust in that sector. Then the next day they reported the US believes that to be true (I assume this is the story being discussed). The Russians aren’t learning anything new.

Also, go check out old British newspaper archives. They reported on D-Day on 6 June.

Tristan

It’s litterally the title of the article: Main Thrust of Ukraine’s Offensive May Be Underway, U.S. Officials Say
And you are wrong about D Day: they reported there was something going on, but no newspaper ruined operation Fortitude by saying this was the main event (at least for several days).

Djdjbd

My dude. At least try to Google it.

The Daily Mail on 6 June 1944: “Our Armies in N. France, 4000 invasion ships have crossed Channel” another headline further down, “The Invasion Has Begun”. They mention Normandy and the two beachheads established by the British and Canadians. Writing of 4000 ships is mentioned in dozens of local and national newspapers.

Djdjbd

I’m also not claiming the media ruined anything, please read the above again. NYT is confirming with US sources on the story they also broke the previous day. Which cites the Russians thinking Ukraine has started the main counteroffensive. The Russians, being on the receiving end of said counteroffensive already know the location. They published two stories. Two. On two separate days.

Djdjbd

Just to summarize, the NYT published on Day 1 that Russians were going “Oh sh*t Ivan, we’re being attacked in Orkhiv. This might be the main Ukrainian push.” And then on Day 2, they publish the above cited story where the US goes, “Yeah, we also think that guy telling his buddy Ivan is correct.”

Djdjbd

Also, feel free to look up the headlines from all major newspapers around the world on 6 June 1944 and 7 June 1944. NYT published on D-Day, “The Invasion of Europe from the West has begun” summarizing the initial events of the Normandy operation. The second day they exclaim Hitler’s seawall is breached. Thanks to the magic of the Internet, they’re all archived. Bog standard war reporting.

Zhorik Vartanov

Both sides are demonstrating limited tactical successes, but strategically it’s still a positional trap.
https://youtu.be/DM4dbY6wZmE – here a dude explains – imo eloquently – why the stalemate.
– transparent battlefield, no surprises possible
– defensive tech beats the offensive tactics
– the opponents are different, but effectively neutralize each other  

Max Beckhaus

Right now I tend to doubting that, because it seems like Ukraine is undermining the artillery of Russia. Sooner or later this will have strategic effects, if it stays that way. It may take time and it is a war of attrition, but an advantage in artillery for Ukraine can snowball out of Russian control easily.

Coerenza

I too think that the most probable scenario is a stalemate (in the first half of 2023 the occupied area changed by only 5 km2) and that the (temporary?) end of the conflict will occur if military operations no longer produce substantial results.

tom

What is the situation at Nova Kahowka bridge east bank? Still under UKR control or not?

Max Beckhaus

Ukrainian sources said lately that the grey zone expanded… But who knows.

dolgan

confirm by russian sources

dolgan

its not cover a lot. but it seem UKR slowly take the control of all the island of the Delta. its what russian say.

NB: and of course its not for a heavy mechanize amphibious assault. but keep an eye on kiburn peninsule.

Oskar Tegby

Starting to see some movement.

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