July 24, 2023

Invasion Day 516 – Summary

The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the days I was on vacation, as of 24th July 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time). Reports of repelled Russian attacks by Ukrainian General Staff are for the last 48 hours, as usual. Sloboda Front includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river Ukrainian…

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The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the days I was on vacation, as of 24th July 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Reports of repelled Russian attacks by Ukrainian General Staff are for the last 48 hours, as usual.

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

  • The enemy gained more ground south of Dibrova. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

  • Ukrainian troops successfully pushed the enemy out of fortified positions at the heights overlooking Klishchiivka and secured the area. (source) (source 2)
  • Ukrainian forces crossed the water canal and advanced towards Andriivka. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Orikhovo-Vasylivka, south of Ivanivske, west of Klishchiivka

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Pervomaiske

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

  • Russian army attacked a mine located between Marinka and Krasnohorivka. All available geolocated videos shows presence of the enemy there. (source) (source 2)
  • The enemy attacked and captured more territory of now ruined Marinka. (source)
  • Russian forces retreated from the area south-east of Vuhledar. Ukrainian troops attempted to push the enemy even further, but they drove into a prepared minefield. (source)
  • Ukrainian forces advanced towards Staromlynivka and entered Staromayrskoye. The settlement is now contested. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Krasnohorivka, Marinka, Rivnopil

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • Russian drone targeted a Ukrainian Bradley infantry fighting vehicle north-east of Robotyne settlement, hinting at a Ukrainian advance in the area. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Kherson Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Mentioned Units |

No unit mentioned.

Deployment Map

Our unique map showing units, operational sectors and defense lines

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Patrick

It looks like the Russians are withdrawing from Andriivka. I thought its northern neighbor Klishiivka would go first. It does not matter, it will be next.

Patrick

Meanwhile, on the Svatove front, the situation is the exact opposite. Today the Russians continued expanding their area of control on the right bank of the Zherebets and captured according to deepstatemap 3 settlements: Sergiyivka, Novoyerorivka and Nadiya. (Interestingly, the Russian MOD report only mentions Sergiyivka).

Noelle

this is a development which needs attention.
They are still dangerously exposed, lets hope that this will have a proper cost attached for Ru.

Patrick

UKR is depleted on this front. They have to send their (thawing) reserves from somewhere, no?

Triglav

Hmm, but if the Russians are withdrawing from Andriyivka and Klishchiyivka, why does the morning report mention an attack east of Stupochky?

Patrick

I don’t know but that does not change the fact that the Russians will leave (or have already left) Klishchiivka (and perhaps Andriivka).

Tennie

Welcome back, Jerome! You certainly earned and deserved your vacation, and I hope you enjoyed it! I just thought I’d give you a bit of positivity to you, that’s all. 🙂

Tennie

You’re very much welcome!

Max Beckhaus

Zaporizhia counteroffensive oryx loss tracker: https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1682498900572119041
225 RU pieces of equipment and 210 for Ukraine. Ukraine started of in a solid minus vs Russia in early June. This is the first update were Russia is leading. Not to bad for offensive action. Ukraine is adapting. Btw way, total monthly oryx numbers will be ugly for Russia, again.

Last edited 10 months ago by Max Beckhaus
Max Beckhaus

And to make my artillery attrition point: The loss ratio is 3 Russian to 1 Ukrainian towed and self propelled added up.
It obviously all depends on Urainian stockpiles of munitions, but if they can, they should keep this up for as long as they can and try their luck late summer or early autumn or next year. Them minefields don’t go away. Obviously that would have a political price tag.

Kay

Ukraine desperately needs air support, so jets… If they have enough fragmentation and cluster bombs, they can destroy the minefields. Cluster bombs were supplied for this.
ISW have determined that next year will be too late. Because Russia regenerates and regroups fairly quickly. That is why the West has to make significant deliveries.

COLIN

Unfortuneatly mines can be relaid really quickly by special artillary shell for that purpose.

Kay

The NATO training of the UKR forces cannot be applied, instead UKR fights in small groups. The only thing UKR is currently successfully performing is precision strikes against RUS supply lines with the aim of wearing down the RUS. However, time is running out here too… Unfortunately, the reality is a little different.

Max Beckhaus

I read every ISW update, I do not remember them ever writing it would be to late next year. Russia cannot regenerate at current loss rates, it can only degenerate. What is true and what ISW also wrote, is that this could have been much easier if the west, especially the USA, would have sent more and faster, but that’s already history. ISW also stated often, that Russia must not get a pause, as in

Max Beckhaus

Frozen conflict or cease fire, but we are very far from that. Russia is still taking big losses every month. This is a war of attrition and Ukraine and the West have all the cards in their hands. Sooner or later Russia will have to fold.

Lev Vuksin

According to the west Ukraine only has at best 28 million people and already mobilized 1 million. What card is in there hands?

Patrick

I don’t have the figures but it seems to me Russia has managed to ramp up military production quite significantly in comparison to 2022.

Max Beckhaus

It seems to me that less and less gear shows up and the gear that shows up degrades in quality. There even is talk of artillery superiority of Ukraine in the south. Less artillery fire in general is for sure and the negative trend didn’t stop. Does Russia produce more? Very probable. Is it enough to replace losses? Not at all, not at current loss rates.

Max Beckhaus

And in general Russia has one major problem concerning upscaling its production big, it is not a industrialized nation. It’s business is selling commodities. It has the military know how but not the industrial base to scale up quickly. The point we’re Russia can produce more military kit than it loses daily in quantity and quality is very far away at current losses.

Patrick

I don’t know, I really think you’re overestimating Russia’s losses and underestimating its capabilities. But that’s subjective so let’s not pursue further.

JohnnyBeerGr8

i know its subjective, but i lean to Max´s opinion. The evidence shows the amount of equip and quality of equip is degrading. If they had 1M shells produced and they potentially trippled it, still 25k a day is over 9M of shells, not sustainable. For defense, they need men, most of all (mines, arty too), and thats biggest question mark for me. Cause 20k/months seem not fast enough. Rather 50k.

JohnnyBeerGr8

without crystal ball, i want to believe, UKR will attrit RUS soldiers. If theyre now able to push back VDV forces round Klisichivka, Russia does not have abundance of elite units. I cannot estimate tireness of UKR to end this, still seem their morale is significantly higher than regular RUS. So if money and weapons are there from west, they can slowly push.

JohnnyBeerGr8

I know its not a history lesson, but mighty USSR withdrew from AFG after 10 years(so as British empire before and NATO after) and they had much more options than current RUS has. The army and equip there was largely smaller than here. Russia is wasting its future prolonging, because no forgiveness for losers there. Lets see how it pans out and when.

Kay

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-sustained-counteroffensive-denying-russia%E2%80%99s-prolongation-war

The last paragraph points out that if the West does not deliver significantly more and faster, the Russians can take the initiative again at the end of the year. With all due respect to your optimism, but what you write is personal wishful thinking.

Kay

Of course, the UKR has taken the initiative at the moment, but I don’t see a lack of Russian ammunition. Missiles and drones continue to fly at UKR infrastructure and ports every day. The RUS has been losing more material since the beginning of the war, after all they also have 10 times more equipment than the UKR.
This war will not end on the battlefield like you left in your crystal ball.

JohnnyBeerGr8

whats definition of lack of ammunition? My personal one is, that if last year round Sevierodonetsk were able to carry 60k a day and today is 25k, that either they lack barrels or ammunition or both

JohnnyBeerGr8

There is probably not much comparison to current war, but GER were able to fight against numerous USSR during 2WW -land,air. even in Kursk were able to make more losses to defending side. USSR was backed up by Allies, which is missing here. It only needs West to commit to the idea Russia needs to be beaten, once (if) that happens, then Russia has no countermeasure to it.

Max Beckhaus

I am not optimistic, I am interpreting available data. Russia is degrading in quality and quantity, that is pretty much a fact. The west dwarfs Russia in any metric, fact. Ukraine is still destroying a lot of Russian kit and there is no reason to believe that this will stop anytime soon if you believe oryx.
Does that mean Ukraine will have the initiative for ever? No, it will have to regroup.

Max Beckhaus

Like it did last winter and that is normal in a war of attrition. Obviously the west has to continue supporting Ukraine and it will to at least liberating the south, I would bet on that. That this will end in negotiation is also obvious. Ukraine won’t march to Moscow to impose its peace formula.

JohnnyBeerGr8

why go that far (moscow)? Its obvious Crimea is no go for both sides and UKR wants to impose its will by choking Crimea and starve them. Donbas is critical for its resources and former industry, but is it matter of negotiation? Cause fighting Donetsk house to house…nobody wishes that. Also RUS cast away loyal UKR, so no kindred soul there and would probably be expatriation of all population.

Kay

But that is a very questionable thesis. The Unkrainian Donbass is in ruins. The economy in the area has been destroyed and neither of the two sides will bother to completely rebuild this area. Russia have their own Russian Donbass and Ukraine was revealed by the pro-Russian Ukrainians located there. This area will remain a bare buffer zone forever.

Traxex

I suggest stop using the word fact. Saying it doesn’t mean it is.

Kay said it good wishful thinking.

Ukraine need to negotiate ASAP, it’s beginning to collapse. That is fact. Because when the western life support is switched off, Ukraine collapses. For the stupid the mood in Europe is not very enthusiastic in Europe and US made sure to demonstrate Ukraine is not an ally in the NATO meeting.

Tristan

You are writing BS. Western support won’t switch off, USA and Europe have too many interests in supporting Ukraine. Public opinion are also in favor of Ukraine, and with that help, Ukraine can crush Russian army and regain all its territory.

Traxex

US has interest, as long as the Democrats are in power. Public opinions are starting to shift very fast if you compare polls from 1 year and now.

What interest has Europe in supporting Ukraine exactly? I as European don’t see any benefit in supporting Ukraine at all.

Keep telling yourself that. See what happens.

Tristan

You know nothing about European history nor geography. Because if you did, you would understand that Europe has the upmost interest in stopping Russia.

Lev Vuksin

And what makes anyone think the West will care once Russia’s beaten. I imagine NATO sees Ukraine as an emerging threat because everyone we’ve ever supplied weapons too tends to use them against us.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian forces are dying at a rate eight times higher than Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area and 5.3 times higher in the Berdyansk and Melitopol directions – would be interesting to know how close to the truth it is and the ratio up north.

Max Beckhaus

Well, historians may get close to those numbers some day. To go with western casualty estimates is probably the closest to the truth we can get now. Well, of course you can try and choke Crimea, but that won’t force the Russian bear into accepting all ukrainian terms, so you will have to negotiate still. The most likely outcome seems a cease fire or a frozen conflict, some distant day.

JohnnyBeerGr8

thats million question everyone like to know the answer, isnt it 🙂 If UKR wont exchange terrirory (and we know how trustworthy deals with Russia are already since 1994), then they must fight till the bitter end (until Russia acknowledges its futile and start serious negotiations). So far Putin still thinks he can win/gain something in return and wont negotiate.

JohnnyBeerGr8

and again, very hypothetical scenario from “what if” rank. So if UKR ever liberate Donbas, will it move pro-russian people to Russia or will they risk they may rise again once bear will rest enough? Also conquering Donetsk by force might lose some sympathy from West.
Like i said, West must commit “as long as it takes” and nothing less, then i believe UKR will kick Russia out.

Last edited 10 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
Max Beckhaus

Personally I think Ukraine will have to give up some land not for a peace, but because it can’t liberate it without hugh costs and a cease fire or frozen conflict will be the end of this. Ukraine may liberate the south by force. It can probably choke Crimea then. Taking luhanks and donetz seems only possible with total Russian collapse or the west allowing it’s kit be used on Russian soil. Both

Max Beckhaus

Seems unlikely. So I think Ukraine will liberate the south eventually and it will choke Crimea and at that point negotiations and freezing or cease fire could come along the line of Ukraine gets to move on to no bombs, NATO and EU and Russia gets a break of the Crimea choke. Russia will stay sanctioned and a outcas and Ukraine gets to be part of the west. Basically back to the 24.2. line

Max Beckhaus

But that part Ukraine is part of the west without a doubt. Of course I do hope that Russia and Putin overplays it’s hand to collapse, bit I doubt that, though it is by no means impossible. If Biden wins the election, things look really ugly for Russia.

JohnnyBeerGr8

Thats a topic hard to answer. Was Russia in 1916 in obvious path to 1917? I dont count with another Lenin to challenge Putin, still discomfort of the army and fractions in the monolith could lead to some non-sustainability where RUS would rather focus in keep its own power domestically than be involved in UKR. Wouldnt stick with hope of easterners that bolshevik goes away next year, or two 🙂

Last edited 10 months ago by JohnnyBeerGr8
JohnnyBeerGr8

going back to 24.2. feels like Minsk3, would be wondering how long that last. It was frozen conflict for 8 years and without serious guarantees (eg Israel way), UKR will be at mercy of RUS. They have to rebuilt all, RUS only army. I know in real life this is one of the higher probability scenario. Id wish, many westeners would see appeasement hasnt solved anything in the past.

Max Beckhaus

As I said above, I do not see Ukraine stoping this without the West giving it green light into NATO and EU. The Israel scenario is not enough, since we are talking Russia here, as you rightly point out. A frozen conflict or cease fire without western solid guarantees will not happen. And I think there is a consensus in the west and Ukraine that the south has to be liberated.

Max Beckhaus

Anything else would be a political and security Desaster and I think that Europe understood this. It has to be crystal clear for Russia and the world that this is not allowed to bring anything but misery.
Concerning russian collapse, there is precedence and there are signs this could end that way, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Traxex

What western outlets are you reading because BBC estimates around 25 000 Russian casualties maybe around 30k. And the slip of Vonderlyen suggest much more for Ukraine, that later was edited out.

Tristan

At the moment, there are probably around 150k dead Russians. Ukrainians KIA are about half that number.

Traxex

I am sorry what? Hahahahahahahahahaha

Max Beckhaus

Wrong, that is no estimate. If you want to talk facts, use some for the start. Russian troll, go and get a life.

dolgan

8 time is a lot.

but if for russian, casevac should be very hard. they are now in low lands and UKR have shell partial control on all axes.

A small wounded can became a dead body without casevac.

On youtube, “civ div “channel last videos show casevac on UKR side. (in degrate condition: their casevac vehicles where ambush and destroy before to do anythings).

dolgan

no. drone and missiles doesnt fly every day.

Now a massiv attack one time a week was a small attack every day.

both camp talk about massiv attacks for their propagand.

Kay

It will certainly result in a negotiated solution. And I don’t see anyone who can overthrow Putin at the moment, except for the military. However, Putin is once again taking precautions to ensure that this does not happen.

Triglav

This is my biggest concern. The west should actively try to sabotage Russian military production

Traxex

MAX I suggest you see who owns ISW. ISW is such obvious propaganda machine that it’s eye watering.

Find more credible sources of information. RAND makes good analysis, Foreign Affairs is good, The Grey Zone, Consortium news, Off Guardian, Consent Factory. Most of these has very good references. ISW is Nuland spin off to push narative in the White House, just look at their phony references.

Tristan

In this conflict, ISW analysis are very good and very credible. Much better than RAND (where there are a few pro-russian idiots who write nonsense).

Kay

That is also the meaning of such institutions. There are advisory and research companies that create analyzes for governments and the public. Politicians are planned and created a public overall picture of the situation. But not more either. You overestimate the tasks of such institutes … ISW also has excellent references and your media mentioned use exactly the same sources as ISW.

Kay

The difference is that ISW discuss the events, analyze and create assessments from it. Foreign affairs or gray zone only show the events.

In the end, everyone has the same pictures, videos and reports. One more, the other less. The propaganda is for both sides, there is no difference.

Kay

For followers, everyone steal their content from the other anyway.

Last edited 10 months ago by Kay
dolgan

Why NATO training cannot be applied?

Be serious, we see every day on video the result of NATO trainning on UKR infantery.

Kay

Because NATO training relies on combined weapon systems (many different vehicles). As well as attacks with superior firepower. The UKR only attack the RUS positions in small groups to avoid losses. UKR cannot currently carry out combined weapon actions because you lack air support and the many minefields are in the way…

dolgan

False. false . false.

You really things all nato trainers are completely stupid ?

Kay

This has nothing to do with stupidity, but with the lack of equipment to clear mines. The UKR has too few demining vehicles. And besides, the time for the training of the UKR soldiers was much too short. In the few months, priorities had to be set and these were mainly mastering the western tanks and attack tactics. The UKR now know how to operate the vehicles, but cannot use it.

dolgan

Seriously .

Now most of UKR troops learn basic infantery skill with nato standard. And next, they are training in Ukrain with their material (sometime during months) before to go on the lign.

New brigades are not experimented. but they have a good training.

Kay

… You cannot overcome them with heavy equipment, but only in groups if you clear allows. NATO certainly did not expect Rus to move so many mines.

JohnnyBeerGr8

NATO doctrine, aside combined arms on land, relies heavily on Air Domination or at least local Air superiority. Ukraine has neither. Also Bundeswehr criticizing UAF, when their last comparative encounter was about 80 years ago, makes me smile. Probably noticed after pregnancy uniforms or electro-eco tank. Given the soviet heritage, corruption and financing, they do ok,they survived 516 full scale

JohnnyBeerGr8

in IRQ or AFG, after beating regular army, most of their encounters were ambushes and IED, nowhere near mine clearing operations this scale and conditions (no air, no combined arms mastery, outdated equip, or multiple dozens combined equip, soviet type commanders vs progressive ones). If they wished to do so, could have seen green “muziki” on vacation, like RUS did in 2014 to taste same medicine

Kay

Donetsk runs, I would say. Will surely amount to a city fight at some point.

Kay

I think Jerome should slowly look around for an alternative to Twitter aka X. If Musk continues, this medium will not exist long in this form.
Who wants to pay money for it …

Noelle

mastodon is only one public option

Ppp

Since this site exists, maybe twitter is just not needed? I’m sure it’s a relief, but if you can’t watch it without logging in – you have to leave.
Regards.

Pikująca Szozda

This.

The only good thing about Twitter is that it gives people a mini-blogging platform without the hassle of setting up a blog. Jerome already has a blog, and it has better functionality than Twitter.

Mastodon might be better, I don’t know. I can’t read it without installing an app and creating an account, so I never bothered to find out.

Noelle

unfortunately there is no going back to the ‘good ‘ol web’. Even this site is in fact a wordpress atrocity which would cook my phone on access with pointless js derivated from its framework script’s obesity.
Dealing with the scroll/swipe-addicts mastodon is the only popular (not popular enough, still) alternative similar in style and interface to the daily fix they need.

Walt Kerman

Twitter total usage minutes has been up from last month. It’s probably going to be fine.

Comis

Thanks for the update and welcome back.
We hope you had a relaxing holiday!