Invasion Day 504 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 12th July 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novoselivske
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Vesele
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka, Pervomaiske, Nevelske
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Blahodatne
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
Our community |
Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Well, this doesn’t sound good.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/sobering-analysis-ukraines-counteroffensive-front-221322771.html
It is better than it sounds :p
The key point is that Ukraine is now winning the artillery attrition battle and hasn’t engage most of its force for an offensive. So, even if there are many problems (highlighted by the analysis), Ukraine still have the willpower and the fighting forces to win the war and destroy the Russian terrorists.
Well, not more sobering than the battlefield results, but it explains them. The time of grand strategic mistakes on the Russian side is over. It is a war of attrition and it will stay tough. On the positive side most signs point to a ukrainian victory eventually. Russia showed signs of political cracks internally and is on the back foot on the frontline and is losing the artillery war.
Nothing really new since Cherson offensive last year. UKR is halfway through reorg, there are rigid systems or commanders, there are units that are less effective than others. What i dont agree that much is with that western equip wouldnt change that much current battlefield. No one likes what if, cause didnt happen, but ATACMs/Storm Shadow last summer, so as LEOs or F16, Mirage tocarry W weapons
also seen russian screening with Arty fire. So had UKR more AA systems to cover cities and battlefield at same time, had more shells to isolate battlefield or suppress trenches, had they have more mineclearing eqp or bridging eqp, they would have had worked that out in small unit scenarios even without air cover. All could have had contributed possibly to better impact. How better, dont know.
and give the range russian AA systems could have, i dont think F16 are masive gamechanger, still UKR wouldnt have to tune SU-24 to adapt them to carry western weapons. Same would be for more artilerry barels or more himars systems. They would have carried more missions and cover more area, extending RU options and potentially reveal more weaknesses or cracks.
don’t think like CNN expert about ‘Top Gunning’. Think about f16 as a weapon delivery system. Basicaly: elaborated flying truck which operates just like most of Russian MIGs on the rear behind own AA umbrella.
F16 (or any airplane of its IT/LOG capabilities) == a lot (a LOT) of weapons. Most Western firepower is airplane-oriented.
i think thats what i implied in 3rd comment..no mods to SU24 (should be bomber for combat ground support), could fly more missions and cover more area
it sounds reasonable, the two pet-peeves I’d have to raise is (1) silence about airpower. Though the material states pretty clearly that even US with its usuall air-heavy approach would have serious problems in such situation. And (2) ridiculous assumption that 4-8 weeks of training is enough to expect ‘manouver warfare’ upscaled from platoon to at least batallion.
That’s nonsense. –>
—> Misalignment between (especialy older and reinstated) staff and younger troops is also something about ther was a lot of talks. Sadly, you cannot quickly make colonels from privates or even capitains ‘because they are brave and speak english’. Besides a lot of younger officers actually do not want staff job (this is plague in every army) because ‘they do not fight’.
Would have if …
Such analyzes do not end war and do not bring the UKR a little further.
Just again a self -called expert who wants to make himself important.
Jerome, alguien que me pueda comentar si la página de seguimiento de la guerra, ya no se va a actualizar o donde la puedo encontrar…
Alcancé a ver hasta la página del día 504, pero ya no he visto más publicaciones.
vacation
Back from leave and feeling great! It looks like there were no major changes on the front in the last 3 weeks. However, if deepstatemap is right and the fortifications and high ground west of Klishiivka are now under UKR control, it does not bode well for Russia which will lose not just Klishiivka but also eventually Bakhmut.
well, you know everybody was waiting for you, so no changes were approved 😉
that’s because I had inadvertently pressed the pause button :))
Very soon, the Russians will withdraw from Klishiivka. I’d say between today and the end of next week. No surprises here, the writing was on the wall.
some tensions are starting at polish-belarus border due to wagner activities. if stupid rus will start messing up there and some fights will start then belarus revolution will start and lukaschenka will be gone.
it’s an election year and this stupid gov. desperately seeks oportunity to shine in something.
This border is already hevily militarised under ‘protecting the white polish catholics against extintion from bronze muslims’ pretense.
I like you, Noelle.
I have the one. Need to sign this for posterity.
‘dear Diary, today someone liked me in the Internet’.
Enjoy your grand day on the internet!
new piece from Vlad worth listening (it is not a matter of ‘agreeing’ but discussing):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4P-ddR0_Fw
piece of Pomerantsev Vlad is addressing:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/11/ecocide-russia-ukraine-war-kakhovka-dam-destroyed
In the ‘media consuming mode’ it’s the ‘late news’ ofc. Don’t be fooled by addiction for the ‘news of the day’.
Today, there is a war of artillery and FPV drones, detonations of warehouses, logistical support, military bases. In August, the solution should begin, and then everything will happen by inertia. There was a report that after all, there are 18 BTGs in Ukraine, and not the 12 that I wrote about earlier. We cannot objectively assess the staffing of these brigades, because we do not know much.
Actually, in the Zaporizhzhia direction, Ukraine already has 3-5 BTGs, which are already a little battered. Whether something from this reserve will be used for the Kharkiv Front is already a question. Because, as far as is known, up to 100,000 Russian troops are concentrated there.
There are some good Russian brigades there, a little shabby, but still, according to data, they have up to 1,000 tanks and various armored vehicles. Judging by what we can see on the maps, traffic in the Kupyan direction began approximately on July 5. The equipment is of course old and most of this equipment was simply taken out of conservation and restored.
Therefore, we do not write about quality. But still drives and shoots. Field artillery can be used, for example, T55. Of course, the quality will be very questionable, but this practice is already in effect in the Zaporizhzhia region.
its not only equip, unit cohesion and coordination that makes it harder for russian to achieve anything meaningful. I personally dont believe 900 tanks, i think that includes armored vehicles too. 100k does not seem that shiny if 370k is estimated for whole UKR and if you divide it by thirds or quaters for each theater, should be ok (combat and non-combat together)
I meant tanks, BMPs, and other armored vehicles close to 1000 (in total), the difficulties of the translator
my apologies, i had more news in mind than your reaction. Yes, i see it the same. 100k including non-combat, another 100k bakhmut area, something round 70k Adviivka and Cherson oblast and rest in Zaporozia. It would fit. 1:3 ratio combat vs non-combat and here we go, nothing fancy.
Seriously, you trust this? Why not 500K ? warning to propaganda (here from UKR)
This figure includes various people from logistics, drivers, personnel working in warehouses, headquarters, personnel of radar stations, medics and so on, it is not only those who are ready to fight here and now or reserves, this figure is total from Kup’yansk to Belogorivka. These are all just probable numbers.
These are all just probable numbers. I will not assert this 100 percent. There were several different sources that spoke about it. What and how to believe is your business. You have better sources – good.
i still wonder if all scale doctrinal counterattacks is benefitial for Russia, they did it all along last year and achieved very little. Why they dont try to preserve combat power and increase unit cohesion and efficiency while UKR would attack, also creating some reserves in back in case of breakthrough. But hey, its fog of war, they should know better than me, armchair general.
The answer is probably political and or logistical. I could see how supporting more troops in the south is simply not feasible. I personally go with the rule of thumb, the more Russia attacks, the better for Ukraine. It is a war of attrition and there is no better way than to defend to do this. Btw, as far as I know Ukraine does not use BTGs and Russia stopped it.
im not complaining either, while UKR also bleeds, they regularly rotate and try to train people, which should help them in long run (not counting economy or politics) and if Russia wants to bleed faster, why not, we´ve seen how effective they are attacking. And no longer have logistic chain or obscur ammount of shells to bang the door till it cracks.
Indeed. It is quite obviously very hard for both sides to mount effective offensives. This will stay a war of attrition and basically a artillery and drone battle on the frontline. It feels like Ukraine is winning this, but it will take time. Combined maneuver warfare is pretty much of the table.
I think the better loss gradient, better training, western precision weapons, better motivation, leadership and western economical superiority will eventually wear Russia down. It is a question of when not if for me. Anybody who thinks the West will eventually let Ukraine down is simply mistaken.
To tell the truth, no attacks are profitable for Russia. They are looking for a way to negotiations, negotiations on their terms with territorial concessions, and a lot of other sh1t. They think: “The faster we wipe out Ukraine’s reserves, the faster the next agreement will be.” Apparently, this is an attempt to play ahead (what is happening in the Kup’yansk direction)
I know they´re looking for concession, my only hope is that West wont fall for it, that would mean you can take what you want with force and that precedent is no good.My only worry is this damn 21st century impatience,there is pile of people, including politicians that would like to have it over,best tomorrow. Atrocities and horrors for UKR people aside, it really will take time to wear bear down
Do not worry, as long as Ukraine wants to fight, it will be supported by the west. And even concerning the level of that support I am confident. The west knows that hugh concessions to Russia, like letting it have everything it has now, will be perceived, sold, as a success for Russia. There is simply no political way out of this for western major countrys without losing ‘face’ and there are many
that understand that this would destroy the European peace order. Finally everybody in the security scene understands that this is the cheapest way to weaken the biggest thread to European peace considerably. Any sane politician will keep this up, just look how the far right meloni acts. Europe will see this thru, 100 percent.
sorry, i have my doubts. Scholz seem have awaken from winter sleep. I know European defense is under financed and under stockpiled, but everyone gives UKR so little so late (or better say just enough to keep going but not decisively win), otherwise shorter the conflict, shorter the expenses.
All of which is right, but the reasoning was mainly angst of escalation. That is pretty much of the table and the stockpile phase of the war is ending. The costs of this are still low, no matter how long it takes and Europe is a lot bigger than the USA concerning artillery ammunition production. And then there is the political vanguard of east and north Europe plus Holland and GB.
how many russian red lines West need to cross over and over? Its clear they want to rule the people/slaves, not ruling ash country (nuked), they have children living in western countries… Since April 2022 when CZE and PL decided to send tanks, reading last week GER is gonna send 25 (sic) leo1(!), made me just laugh hysterically. For christ sake they cant cancel UN like they did after ww2
They kicked out USSR from League of Nations for invasion to Finland in 1939. Its obvious they cant kick them from UN, but they dont want to dismantle UN and create 3rd iteration and will endlessly discuss UN reform that wont ever happen. Why you need to stick with something thats not working? I mean its important to have a platform, but cant you just create a new one? Everything seem so rigid.
We stick to the solution made 80 years back ago, when there was different world, before decolonization in 60s, before France and UK decline from global powers to regional, or USSR fall or Germany united. Simply by human count, where is India. World has changed a lot and UN still hasnt solved peace corps authority or Security Council dilemma.
Well… Nice rant! Ukraine will have the complete western kit by 2024, that is something. Germany went from nono pseudo pacifism to the second biggest military donor behind the USA, that is also something. So far to the good news. The only one that could have ended this yesterday were the USA but considering the relativ capabilities, they are far behind Germany, that’s where the bad news starts.
And if you think the disfunctual UN is THE bad news, I have to break to you that the shit is cooking big time this century and the UN ain’t anywhere close to the tip of the iceberg of our problems. Get busy.
i know, since world got tied together and its not just more than 170 years from industrial revolution, everything became complex without easy simple shortcuts or solutions. One step at the time, will it be enough, who knows. Im grateful UKR still holds, but sure they havent gave them they could (say 50 leo 2a4-6 than 25 leo1), but hey, maybe they get there, i can still dream.
they may have the kit, but i wouldnt like to be in the shoes whos managing logistic in the army, just for battle tanks, they have roughly over 25 types, many not compatible to each other and thats just tanks. Part of equip needs to be restored outside country-extending repair cycle. I know its crisis, you get what you have, but then its the air and russian AA capabilities, arty.Overhaul after war
Yes, ukrainian logistics are a wonder to behold. Concerning German tanks, we have about 300 Leo 2s of which about 200 are combat ready and we gave I think 24 and there will be a constant stream of Leo 1s, the 25 are just the start of the first 120ish planned, and there will be more after that.
Max, i love your optimism but we really cant be discussing 120ish leo1 from 60s, we laugh at russians bringing back from stock t-55/62 and what is here? Pretty much the same. I know that any SPG counts and if you are in the village and there is two t-62 and you dont have javelin, youd love to have leo1 to counter them, but thats specific scenario compared to general applicability.
Now, I am not a military man, but I read that the Leo 1A5, so forget the 60s, is a solid tank for the ukrainian battlefield. If you want it fency, there will be Abrams and I am sure there will be more Leo 2s found aswell. My relativ optimism is well founded. The USA leaks showed that Ukraine is already fielding more tanks than Russia. Russia’s loss gradient is horrific concerning artillery
Which is the center of this war. It’s a question of time when Ukraine will field more tubes and the report above says they already do in the south. Concerning ammunition the west is picking up speed and the eastern ally’s help. Ukraine is losing less men and is probably being trained better and obviously lead better and the whole thing costs the west a nickel and a dime, relatively. How not to be
Optimistic?
US equip is indeed superior, there are couple issues connected to that though-spare parts, far away, rear repair, far away; increased maintenance (up to 10x more hours than other armies), tank turbine and also not enough numbers. It wont be US army running them in Ukraine. L1A5 is from 1984, electronics, optics and active protection systems is way worse than Leo2. Still somewhat on par with T72B1
i just cant reply you, awaitign approval. Leo1a5 is variant from 1984…can you imagine what optics, electronics and active armour protection it might have?
barells can suppress, but cannot isolate so far, not with current rate of shells needed. It helps a lot, no doubt, still will be bloody infantry fight. There is multiple unknown. I hope RU army is on brink of break down, because all the issues combined so far, esp motivation
It has good optics with night vision and a good gun with lots of ammunition and hopefully barrels available. The armor is bad though, it is basically an AMX light tank with tracks. If used as a night time protected field gun it will do a great job.
The past has shown that Russia will sit out this war for a very long time. The Russians have never negotiated in their instigated wars. There were agreements and ceasefires, but nothing more. The Russians leave the country voluntarily after a few years, when there is nothing left for them and the time is right. The wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya have dragged on for 10 years…
with only the first two years being effectively fought. Everything after that was attacks against the RUS by local partisans and guerrilla fighters. The same pattern is in Syria, hardly any attacks and the country is not left at all. At some point, the UKR will end up waging a guerrilla war.
With the RUS it’s a fact that nothing will happen as long as everyone has their seat in the Kremlin. The only way to defeat the RUS is to fight them from within. Unfortunately, this is only possible with Russian forces. RUS is a very big country, with a long way to go to Moscow. The country can prepare for any invasion, because the enemy takes a long time to reach Moscow.
ehm. You might start from refraining from using the terms which has no sense nor use (like ‘BTG’) anymore. ‘100k troops’ – such a nice round number, inded – that may be with all the cooks, janitors, drivers and random drunks messing around at the ca. 150-200km front lenght. At best 1/3 (rather 1/4) is actually somewhat ‘combat rady’ (or just combat active, that’s not the same).
Dow e know anything about this? Some Russian milbloggers amplified reports of several Russian assault groups with forces of up to a platoon simultaneously surrendering to Ukrainian forces in the Zaporizhia direction.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 18, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
im not sure what kind of information you need back (true/untrue), because its the consequences and trend. If its today and not tomorrow, it wont matter. If front didnt collape and UKR is at the shore of Azov, its just puzzle piece to big picture.
they regain some positions east of robotyne.
They also capture an UKR stronghold in the east near Krasnohorivka.
And still few meters gains/days in the north.
Since beginning we hear such stories , that they dont want to fight low morale esceaping etc. but at the end it does not matter becauase they still push forward and doing war crimes
where are they pushin forward ? Kupiansk ? They are stuck now… And in Zhaporija front they are being destroyed… pushed forward in hell yes
Could someone explain me why the Ukraine not destroy the the Kerch bridge?
Is it not so easy as it seems on the first sight?
Ukraine has no capabilities to do it, at least not easily. If they could, they would. They do not have any good missiles which could bypass air defenses and reach it and it is certainly not a wood bridge. So no, it is not easy for them.
Nova Kakhovka as an example or Antonovsky bridge is better one (compare holes on the road compared to total destruction that came after). Would need to have access to pillars (its basically 3 bridges – 2stripes each way and train bridge) and tons of explosives. If you hit top part, its a damage that can be replaced and can be replaced relatively quickly.
In short, Max is right, they have no means
May be you ignore that they already hit the bridge twice?
Its only a question of time before Scalp hit the bridge.
And they could again use assymetric way.
Meanwhile, the RUS have missile defenses within range of this bridge. That is, out of 10 missiles (Himars, etc.) or drones, 1-2 will reach the target. Everything else is shot down. The bridge can only be destroyed on site. So by attaching explosives, but for this UKR forces first have to reach the bridge unnoticed, which is almost impossible.
Meanwhile UKR hit is yesterday again.
does anybody know the rule why some posts are entered without approval and some awaiting for approval?
It may have to do with the amount of posts in a certain time frame.
you have used one of trigger words and scripts keep your post pending review.
You also may have not bought a beer for Jeromy.
Though it’s only after 200 posts, so it’s not your problem (yet) I presume.
nope, counter says 44. I dont have anything important to be sad about it, but lack of pattern leaves curiosity why one post works why the other one doesnt
damn he’s got greedy
Pay attention to your choice of words… The trigger jumps with people who have never written anything here or a post was recently deleted by the mod or words that are on the black list are used.
Man, things keep going frombad to worse for Russia. The state finances are cracking and no hope in sight and Ukraine is working on Russia’s artillery advantage hard. Europe is finally getting its ammunition act together and the USA opened the cluster bag. 2024 will get so ugly for Russia, that even if trump takes over 2025 there won’t be much left to negotiate about.
russians are moving forward to Kupyansk so not very bad for them.
they were also conquering Bachmut for 8 months, so wake me up when they get there. Understand your only concern is to balance positive western view with neutral eastern…
and finally got it. for them (rus) dont care about the cost so at the end winner will be the one with more motivation and determination. putting aside propaganda I dont see winner for the moment.
cant add new comments, dont know why it works sometimes and sometimes dont
And they are already close to lose Bakmut.
in real life, the cost count.
Yes everything go like on the plan.
Trump will not have the power to stop US support . Just make it more difficult if he want.
During the next year, UKR will liberate the south. And the world will again discover concentration camp , torture and other russian war crime.
ohh I wouldnt be so sure. trump is idiot but with real sense of getting deal, if he will win and do deal with putler war will be over. Ukraine cant rely on UE and just support from USA keeps them alive. actually thats only hope for rus that west will stop or lower support
yeah, both elderly, putler and trump (or biden), i respect the elder people, but it really takes its toll for that high ranked position
I doubt the Europe part. The EU is allready matching the USA alone and by 2025 Europe and the rest of the world could keep Ukraine afloat, I would bet on that. Russia will simply be to degraded by then. Concerning will and motivation Russia can’t match Ukraine and Europe cannot afford to nore will want to trump out.
Europe can easly broke as well. Afd could win and Germany is out, France are famous of white flag and all is over. I am not sure what is stronger: love europeans to money or hate to russians. anyway war will last till putler lives.
Lenin used to say (and many others after him)…“The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.”if that is what youre after (trading Russia no matter the moral principle)
Trump can’t negotiate from prison.
At the beginning of the war, Putin made the mistake of threatening the entire West with destruction. As a result, almost all Americans, as a western superpower, felt threatened and attacked. Even if RUS is very far away…
the Americans took it very personally and since then the majority of people who have defended themselves against RUS have wanted the UKR as a third country. Opposing China and RUS is a top priority for the Americans, including Republicans.
US president is not powerful in his country. Clearly all US institution support and will support UKR. nobody want to explain to his religious population why he support rappist and abandon UKR on the door of a cheap victory against the historical ennemy.
Support of EU make no doubt and is clearly enough to avoid any russian offensiv.
wow. this thread will be huge while Jerome is on holidays. Im almost lost with all discussions.
Which side of the bridge was hit, does anybody know? This is a significant detail, since the east-bound side was already closed. But the “real” news sites can’t be bothered to tell us.
Both way are cut. Just the train still remain.
Meanwhile, one side of the road bridge is back in operation, where two-way traffic is now being used.
London Bridge has fallen 🙂 good morning. Would Dima threaten one another time about crossing red line?
Not fallen but damaged. Rail is still going so minimal impact except of propaganda.
Exactly, that’s why the west should supply modern long-range weaponry to completely demolish the bridge and attack ferries in the Kerch strait. Ukrainian drones can only do little damage. NATO needs to show strength
dont forget about grain deal, when Turkey looks like gonna be guarding ship convoys and Russia can do something about it, but unless they want article 5, probably not with weapons
No. No one commercial vessels wants to be involved with that risk. Also, Turkiye won’t harm their relationship Russia. The in-between position of Turkiye with all actors will never changed. Like it or not, this war making Turkiye exists again in international stage. Russians money boosting their economy again. Also now Turkiye plays dominant role in Nato and EU. EU membership waiting
It happened once Robb, short memory you have, about half year ago 🙂 so keep dreaming. Like the same Turkey that didnt shoot down russian SU-25 in Syria. Erdogan does what he considers as benefitial for himself. Like the same Erdogan, that wont damage relationship saying UKR should be in Nato and release Azov prisoners. Keep dreaming.
Ok let’s see what you said. Let’s prove that. If the two incidents you correlated that Turkiye will send warship to guard the grain vessel, I think you better go to the Doctor. But, OK let’s keep dreaming. Good for your spirit.
Sure, grain deal is public, so if its gonna be extended, we both will know 🙂 Its good to have dreams. Still you dont want to admit that Turkey did impact their relationship multiple times, which was your premise at the beginning. Fair enough, its not a contest just a discussion forum.
Funny. It’s different context bro. Maybe you think I’m the stupid eastern people as written in Said’s book. But I do following the news of Syrian Uprising, as also I do following the news of Arab Spring, the rise of ISIL, the comeback of Taliban, The Gulenist movement, and else. I surely remember the incident of SU shootdown for violation of Turkiye airspace. But, the relation got…
no worries, i understand. While I may have overstepped a bit with “keep dreaming” i wouldnt think youre stupid. We just exchange views and opinion on the forum, from outsiders position…With Turkey, i made my case, they play their own game on their own benefit and yet, they slapped Putin in to face couple times already. Thats all.
The grain deal is very important to Turkey because the country was the largest buyer of the grain during the deal. Turkey then distributed the stuff to the world at its discretion and made good money from it.
Erdogan spoke personally with Putin today about extending the deal. Türkiye will do everything to ensure that the agreement is extended.
Turkey has said it will protect grain convoys.
Russia threatens again- who enters UKR sovereign waters could be considered weapon carrier and part of the confilct and also international waters not safe 🙂 Ok, what if Turks play along and they hit Turkish ship in international waters? Can they risk it? If Turkey says they bought grain and send fleet to pick it up and they got hit in UKR waters, still its damn risky for Russia. Seem bluffing.
its a famous song Tommy, dont be spoiling all the fun and you have forgotten that i mentioned also Dima, screaming and kicking, simple prank my friend…
So to some ‘peace’ speculations. For these I will assume that Putin stays in power or will be replaced by someone with more or less equal interests.
1) There will be no real peace, since the territorial disputes will not be solved.
2) Therefor the options are a cease fire or a frozen conflict cementing a line of contact.
Requirements for the will to negotiate such:
Ukraine:
I doubt that Ukraine is ready for anything before at least the south is liberated or the hope to liberate more is trending towards zero. The later is obviously bound to western support.
Russia:
The Russian calculus is probably more about the kremlin power play than anything else. The current Maine strategy is to wait out western support, e.g. wait for elections in the USA.
Concerning the internal power play a Putin may think negotiation is better than endless war if internal pressure because of economical and casualties becomes to big or if the Donbas and or Crimea may be lost.
Conclusion:
A cease fire before american presidential elections and liberation of the south seems highly unlikely.
What do you guys think?
I agree
I still bet that russians are preparing something for autumn.
Crimea and donbas is lost anyway. My bet will be peace and nato for Ukraine instead of cease fire and accept what was already taken.
Královec when?
The Turtles are coming and will kill all the Russian soldiers. And Robocop does the rest in the Kremlin… Leonardo, Donatello, Raphael and Michelangelo always win.
In the first half of 2023, the occupied territory increased by 5 km2, 6 months were useless.
I think that if things don’t change at least a truce is conceivable. Biden’s interest is that it happens before the US elections.
Rationally, it would be better for Ukraine to negotiate a stable peace, in order to enter NATO and start a real reconstruction. My doubt is whether ukraine could accept?
I think that negotiations in intelligence circles are already underway. There are certainly Western allies in the Kremlin involved in the negotiations. Of course, nothing is said about it, to protect the allies. Otherwise, I personally think that a military coup is most likely in Russia. There are many indications that speak for it. The military coup will primarily target Gerasimov and Shoigu.
The two made too many wrong decisions that cost the lives of many Russian soldiers. The dismissed generals and commanders will not simply accept it either. There are two in Moscow making decisions from their safe offices that have caused much damage to their own armed forces. The longer the war lasts and UKR destroys the supply lines, the more anger builds up.
So, Stephen kotkin has 2 major points which he reiterates for a long time: 1) Ukraine can’t win this war. And he is likely right if winning is defined by forcing Ukraines peace formula upon Russia. At least I don’t see them taking Moscow anytime soon… 2) It is about winning the peace. Which means security and being part of the west, in this case this means being part of the EU.
Now, I do not see how Ukraine can ever be secure outside of NATO. The notion that Ukraine will get and support a military that can reliably deter Russia for ever is simply stupid, outside of giving them back nukes. So Ukraine can not sign a cease fire or a peace without a article 5 promise, ever, since Russia will probably never be weaker than now. I personally think NATO just prolonged the war.
I think your are wrong on one major things : Russia will never be as strong as now.
Russian power is principaly soviet heritage. And they are losing their stock very fast.
They will never be able to restore this stock.
The second source of power of russia is his population. And i dont need to explain how bad is russian demography.
Ukraine demography is as bad.
russian demography too.
Russia have in theorie a major demographic advantage. see the result.
i agree, as far as official numbers go, UKR has worse natality than Russia. Given also exulants, thats gonna be heritage to counter. Future will tell. Also, if i get example from Washington naval treaty, if you secure ratio 1:1.37-1.5 (combat power). Every loss you take hurts you twice than the opponent. This is partially happening already also in terms of quality (teacher vs convict)
dont get me wrong, Israel is example, that numbers not always win or if UKR get to NATO, that changes some of the equations. From demographic problems, both states are projected to have serious problems in the future.
China imigration will solve russian demography problem.
And russian imigration will solve ukrain demography problem.
I dont have crystal ball. China has its own demography problems and could be, that all these single men in surplus from “one child policy” may work well with siberian girls. Still probably wont solve “white russian” prolem for Russia and they become minority in long run overrun either by asiats or islamic “tribes”, but similar could go for UK or FRA 🙂 For Ukraine, thats even harder to predict…
The bigger problem for Russia is that in the last two years and in the years to come, millions of intelligent people have emigrated and will probably never come back. These educated people form the backbone of a functioning state. A Russian alcoholic bricklayer does not advance the state economically and politically.
NATO should intervene in Ukraine and push Russia out for good
NATO Intervention will not happen unless Russia uses nukes or the like.
@dolgan: No, I have to disagree. Russia is rich and has a big military industrial base and Ukraines demographics are just as bad. If you give Russia 10, 20 or 30 years to produce, train and sell commodities it can be back and it won’t make the same stupid mistakes again. This is Ukraines big chance.
If Ukraine does not end up being in the EU and NATO this can happen easily again within another generation.
I think EU membership should be a higher priority for the UKR than NATO. In the EU, the UKR has better economic prospects, can enter into better trade partnerships, and is better for society. Without NATO but with EU membership RUS will not be able to attack either. Because it is equally a duty for EU countries to support another EU country militarily if it is attacked.
So you think Germans will go and die in Ukraine if it is attacked by a superior Russia in 15 years because it is in the EU? Or will it be weapons and good wishes again? I wouldn’t bet on that if I’d be Ukraine. It has to be NATO with the USA, anything else is a solid risk of it happening all over again.
counter question? Do you think the Germans want to die in Ukraine just because the UKR is in NATO and is being attacked again by Russia? The result is the same for both of them… Russia wants to wage war against an EU country just as little as against one of NATO. For UKR, however, EU membership is more lucrative after the war than just being in NATO.NATO needs constant investment
while the EU invests in the UKR. NATO does not build infrastructure, houses, schools or bring back the exiled citizens. A successful and competitive UKR only brings EU membership, no USA or NATO. The country must look ahead after the war and repair damage, and not pray for 10 years or more that RUS will not attack. Fear is not an option for the future, but optimism and a strong economy.
Nobody likes to invest in a country which is not safe. Only NATO can do that, since it entails article 5 with the USA. No security, no economy.
The USA looks out for the USA!
in 15 years there will be no germany anymore, just a piece of land with an islamic population which does not care for new world order, globalism, transhumanisn or green leftwinked politics
Exactly… And Russia is then a model democracy and dutifully pays for the reconstruction out of its own pocket for all the destruction in the countries where they have intervened militarily.
Correction: the oligarchs are rich. 😉
Russia has been a stinking sh*thole for 500 years. I don’t think defeat in Ukraine is going to suddenly change the uniquely Russian tradition of being led almost exclusively by West-phobic paranoid psychopaths.
Ukrain demography dont say anything about russian power.
Russia have a lot of natural ressources yes. What is the future of both states?
Russia 10 years of sanction, economic and politic crisis ( putin will die one day).
Ukrain: look at poland, romania, bulgaria.massiv mondial support and join EU will boost economy.
During last 20 year, russia prepare this war. see the result
As we say in Germany: Dein Wort in Gottes Ohr.
Hello guys, there won’t be any summaries during the next week, time to rest. 🙂
Well deserved!
As always, thank you for all your work. Take care !
looking at current situation, there wont be much to update anyway so enjoy
when you will be back, the war is over and Putin celebrates in kiev
Oh cool, I have got fanboys using my name. I am flattered!
What happened with NATO? Or what are the security guarntees that they promised? And why not security guarntees from NATO but from G7, and what are they?
NATO does not want to participate in this Eastern European war, so it distances itself from it. Most likely, the guarantees (about which you said) are equipment, logistics, ammunition. If objectively they will give all this in doses, then, of course, it will not be enough for such a hunger war, they are wasting time, they think that over time russia will weaken…
…and then it will be possible to bring it to negotiations at the table. And to insist that it release all or part of the territories captured by it. Of course, Ukraine will pay in blood, but Europe does not care, they pursue their interests, militarize Ukraine in a small way. Only dosed, in pieces, to keep the armed forces afloat.
Europe’s economy is bleeding. They must kiss ass of US and Arab leaders for asking energy, besides whining to Chinese leader not to subsidize China’s Energy and Manufacture Industry. Surely Mr Xi smiles happily for such long war.
Nope. Europe is just fine, the only one bleeding is great Britain because they chose so. Energy costs are at pre war level, other than that we are in a economical correction phase. The real problem is the clima crisis which will drive inflation and living costs hard and it will swallow up living standarts everywhere. But that problem is global.
its not only clima, western world woke up a bit after Covid and Russia´s invasion, but awaken not enough. Eu still would like commit suicide for “noble” cause while thinking rest of the world would follow. It wont. Metals will get more expensive, for some only alternative is China. Energy is only one market, you need to have various metals too and that an issue…
Yes, Europe imported the banned Russian oil via India (Its so funny). And maybe it helps stabilizing the energy. I hope EU can protect their manufacturers from massive imports of Chinese goods in this near future.
You don’t understand how a state works economically. Germany, for example, had the highest revenue for many, many years during Covid, even though less was exported.
And now the war, inflation, energy crises, but the EU has more money than ever before. Economically strong nations benefit from crises. Whoever gets poorer or suffers is the human being, but not the state.
lets agree to disagree. Topic is far more complex. Since industrial revolutions there are changes beyond our understanding. Also, EU/US money can be printed, like they did in 2008, which contributed also to inflation. Not everything is bathing in the sunlight. Decision to move vast manufacturing during first globalization is coming back with finding out how little is being produced. Also EU…
Europeans impearlism, that plundered other continents served as a base for European growth that is benefiting now. GDP on its own wont tell you everything about productivity. If metal is bought in china and car is being made in GER and sold for EU price. It has high GDP, but still has dependency to willingness to sell you that metal. Its brittle.
Imperial ruzzia invaded Ukraine to steal its resources.
yes, with 19th century mindset with 20th century military style.
But my point was to counter Kay, that EU is rich, with why is that. UK, FR, ES, NL empires had vast sources from colonies. Dont want to simplify it to, that it was solely colonies that boosted Europe, still was significant.
NATO, under the leadership of the G7 states, has not without reason promised to deliver enough weapons until the war is over. You can’t do that if there’s no money. The problem is simply the production capacities. There is a lack of labor and material. Financially, arms deliveries account for a maximum of 10% of a national budget.
Money will never be the problem, the problem is the amount of ammo and weapons available.
That is why EU can continue to buy oil dearly. The assumed scarcity at the beginning of the war was due to insufficient supply chains due to the loss of RUS gas and oil. Germany then simply bought gas elsewhere at a completely exorbitant price. It doesn’t work if there’s no money.
Yip. India buys ruzzian oil at knock down prices and passes some of the savings to the EU. Zilly kreminal kuntz loze money.
I know you have different point of view coming from different part of world, but if you would like to get back to 19th century when countries conquer natural resources, not sure you live in right country. It may be not Dutch this time, but China might like to take a piece.
China is as dependent on the EU as we are on China.EU is China’s largest Trade partner.This source of income is a important factor for Chinese economy.China’s path to becoming a superpower is not possible without EU. China bought most of it with money and where does the money come from? Right from EU. US currently less due to US sanctions against China.Both countries don´t benefit from each other
If i recall right, china is largest foreign creditor to US and. Im not able to qualify if fall of EU/US is fall of China too. In my eyes EU more dependant on China than otherwise. if its 60 to 40 or higher, cant say. Im not saying China will wage war like Russia did. I still think they try to beat the system with corruption and buying out everything. As long as they let… Read more »
China is the largest US creditor because they hold so much US government bonds. But that says nothing about the economy. The USA has the most debt in the world, but is still the largest economy in the world. China has kept the value of the yuan artificially low through the massive purchase of US government bonds in order to be able to export cheaply. The prices of Chinese goods are kept so low.
Yip – china covers up its economic problems and issues false figures and stats.
We think this war is just about the mobsters businesses. Just like some of them usually did in meddling in global south politics and economy everyday and sometimes bombings them to death. The so called ‘world war’ sometimes was created by those mobsters. Poor Ukrainians, they become nowadays victim
im trying to understand…if you tell me all nations made something wrong, ok then, true. If you say China and US there is no difference, i would disagree… and i am aware that stronger dog gets the bitch…
Yes, they are different. US, through CIA once meddled in our past politics and colluded with the ‘Brutal Insane’ General Soeharto. The result was the craziest massacre of more than 60 millions peoples in the name of ‘Communism Cleansing’. The good news is The US-Freeport Macmoran signed eternal contract to mine golds in Papua. So, if the west teaches us morality, we will laugh of it.
Well, you know your own history more than I do yours. Open sources says 0.5-1M in 65/66. Given the proxy wars, Trumans holding communism doctrine, it could be America supported another bloody dictator than let the country fall in communist hand…era of Cuban crisis, Vietnam, Laos, Kambodia, Latin America. For me its hard to debate history that cannot be undone. Hitler or Stalin by example.
given mao zedong cultural leap that led to dozens million dead made even without CIA, im still not sure how you would like to quantify if each regime is very much same satan only weapons are different. Please enlighten me.
Don’t read the published report. It’s bullshit for those based on the military regime. Some academics writings and documentary film quite good about this but released silently or else you can be suspected of communist. General Soeharto lead for about 30 years. In that Era, if someone suspected being communist they will be out of social-economy system dan even found death in the street .
don’t read too much, look into real documents when (if) they will be availible.
I wish NATO showed more decisiveness and actual strength.
NATO’s goal is to weaken the RUS army in the long term. That’s a long way to go, but sooner or later it will happen the same way.
You all overlook the guaranteed financial resources of the NATO countries for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Western countries will set a post-war precedent for the performance and speed of UKR reconstruction. A well recovered UKR is a win-win situation.
I am not sure how NATO is weakening Russia. People can talk a lot, but it’s Biden who came out and said US doesn’t have enough shells. It seems to me that Russia is getting stronger not weaker. Unless nato intervention is not immediate, I don’t see how they are going to stop Russia. Either fully commit if not stop qnd make peace. We know the history of Russia, they will end up I’m central… Read more »
Would you please specify areas where Russia is getting stronger, im trying to understand your point. There are various aspects where they got weaker, army for instance, industry, population. its not 270M USSR, its 140-7M Russia without its vassals, they cant produce thousands tanks or aircraft each year. War is costly no matter if you can sell oil and gas and finance that. Advantage over UKR…
They revived their industrial complex. They have more output in tanks, shells and artillery than the whole combined NATO. They gained air superiority over the war zone. Their economy is growing faster than most nato countries. They didn’t even went in to war time economy to go to war. In UK The economy is going bananas. US trippled its deficit in 1 year it is not sustainable even Rand said it.
You live in an alternativ world.
Russia doesnt have air superiority. Their tanks/artillery production are majority fast low cost restoration of soviet material.
Their artillery is obsolete. in range and precision. its soviet material …
All their industial complex doesnt change since soviet system.
i dont think they have.. announcing 600 tanks a year from which 400 t55/62 were refitted from stock is just another Potemkin. They dont have Air Superiority, only longer range than UKR, that they can fire from behind borders. Car industry plummeted between 70-90% loss and many other manufacturing examples.
only advantage they had were sheer number of shells and they still have a bit. But you seen already a decline in regular shelling from last year and even if they increase, still have problems with counterbattery fire and manufacturing advanced self propelled artilery. Theyre no longer able to shell 60k a day, round 20-25k a day recently. Still better than UKR from between 6-15k a day…
If NATO doesn’t put boots on the ground fast it’s over for Ukraine by the end of the year. Zelensky understandably went was angry at the NATO summit. NATO was saying that Russia was paper tiger, petrol station posing as a country. It seems they got a really good reality check. Now when the reality hit, what are they waiting for? Time is not on Ukraine said NATO must act not watch like cowards.
Almost everything they say is wrong. The Russians only have more tanks on paper. The reality is that half of the tanks are not operational at all because they have been sitting idle for years. RUS has to resort to completely outdated T50s because there is almost no reserve left. The Russians don’t have air superiority, that’s why they made such poor and slow progress on the offensives.
Helicopters are responsible for defending the air. The Russian jets flying over UKR are only designed to launch long-range missiles at UKR cities.
The economy in Russia has to grow because it can’t get any worse. The economy was devastated before the war and still is today. A strong economy grows less and more slowly than a weak economy like RUS has.
Putin switched the armaments industry to a war economy last year. But it still can’t produce because most of the parts come from abroad and are no longer supplied. RUS is dependent on Iran, while the NATO countries can take care of themselves.
If NATO were to look on cowardly, there would be neither arms deliveries nor sanctions against RUS,no billions in loans for UKR,no future security promise
Because the construction industry in all countries will boom. And UKR can then get to the EU faster. You think too little about the time after war. The west states have committed themselves to provide an unbelievable amount of reconstruction aid.UKR should be grateful for that when the time comes. And don’t look forever at the insufficient arms deliveries & hold NATO up to it forever.
It is not we who want to join NATO and the EU, but the UKR.
NATO is a defensive alliance. As a treaty, the country that wants to enter must be at peace and without territorial claims.
For example, Israel cannot join NATO.
In the absence of total liberation, Ukraine can join NATO only if it accepts new borders. In the event of a truce, defensive agreements can only be with individual states, but outside NATO.
have you ever heard about Greece or Turkyie? Or Western Germany?
NATO won’t take Ukr during the war (that’s obvious) but it was a grave mistake to babbling about it loudly because this only reinforces the dire need of perpetual war in putinists brains.
NATO had no choice but to discuss it (loudly) and to name clear rules. Selensky is a bit naïve and probably too inexperienced in foreign policy. Otherwise he should have known that something like this can also be demanded diplomatically and not through the media. Selensky is someone who decides on an emotional level, he lacks the pragmatic, which would be better in some situations.
‘Naive’ in the epistemic sense are you assuming from the comment. Zelenski’s duties and goals are not the same as NATO’s (not mentioning even particular participants which differs wildly). And both are acting on different fields simultaneusly. Messaging about that topic was a mistake (there is a reason for keeping ‘strategic abiguity’) – it has no added positive value.
Gerasimirov and Shoigu look like they are surviving, while some of those that stood for are sound strategy disappear. This is a real advantage for Ukraine. I think a Russian collapse is still not of the table. Russia just may be one retreat away from desintegration. I think Ukraines attritional strategy is just right. It may even lure Russia in a push in luhasnk, that would be gold.
I never was much in to conspiracy, but always was wondering if there are fractions that would sabotage the effort in there. Shoigu probably not, but Gerasimov might be part of it(or generals below), but hes with Putin for 15 years or so, so probably loyal regimist). Probably doesnt matter that much as long as RUS withdraw and leave UKR be (Afghanistan withdrawal).
Gerasimov and Shoigu are just the symptom of russian system.
In an alternativ world without incompetent parasit leaders in russia, Russia will never start the war.
Old, senile weirdo Gerassimov removes people before they can report directly to Putin what is actually happening at the front. Putin has no precise insight into the situation, thanks to Gerassimov’s underhanded games. Therefore, Gerassimov could also be the catalyst for a military mutiny in Russia, should it happen.
We dont know what putin know ,understand and more important accept to see about the situation.
he knows exactly what is happening but he doesnt care a shit about life. for him prio is to continue the war because this gives him power to rule internally.
their are both ‘a symptom’ and an important part of functionality. There is no putinism without the ppl like these.
“We’re not Amazon Delivery Service”, please care those words. Useless discussing about Russia conspiracy. Whoever replace Putin will be more Stalinist. But, Europe doesn’t have huge natural resources compared with Russia. Their economy just depend on manufacture & retail business, which is knocked down by China. The longer this war, the bigger smile of Xi,Erdogan, MBS surely
please check out your rubles at the exit.
Wake up from your dream world. The reality is a little different. RUS has infinite mineral resources (gas, oil), but what’s the point. Outside of the megacity, the country is totally impoverished, dilapidated, infrastructure from the Soviet era. The hospitals are rotten and dirty. The emergency services’ cars fall apart. RUS economy has not been competitive for many years. This is your amazing Rus
No. I doesn’t amaze Russ. I amaze Russ for what? I think Russ just kind of mafia. Ukrainians is nowadays victim. But, another gangs of mafia also meddling in daily global south politics and economy also sometimes bombings these poor country to death (creating catastrophe). So, Its just mafia business as usual. Once upon the time, they created the so called world war. Time tells the truth.
there is no such thing as ‘Global South’ it’s a construct which has no sense (what connects e.g. Brasil with Solomon Islands, or Indonesia? Or New Zealand or RSA in that matter?) and is one of useless buzzwords used in emotional (and cynical in design) politics pretending to be a ‘science’.
Eu have the design and research and development brains. China copies and steals.
well, they are quite good in that since G. Khan.
Let’s not underestimate Shoigu and Gerasimov, don’t talk like they are in Ukraine’s interest – they are backed by very powerful people in Russia and I don’t think the oligarchs and Putin are willing to let them go. Besides real decisions are made by their subordinates, who are in fact learning and adapting strategies to new realities in Ukraine
Ehm, not underestimate Shoigu and Gerasimov??? Hö??? How unsuccessful does a leadership have to be?
oh boy… you’re sounding like a kid, now ;D
There is no other force in the Universe such powerful as stupidity.
Let me have my fun in this mad world. Who knows, may be I am 18? 🙂
Anyways, as long as the three stuges stay in power, the better in my world.
It seems that RUS want to launch multiple counter attacks in the north east areas to prevent further UKR advances …. It might be a huge threat for the actual UKR offensives on the south… it will deplete the right flanks of the UKR army …. Beware at Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Hryhorivka areas
its fog of war hard to guess both sides have available manpower/reserves; could be complicated at novoselivke, torske, kremina or around bakhmut. What´ve seen is that UAF can sit behind their trenches as well so if RU wants to bleed in counteroffensives, could work as well.
Its hard to understand what they want to do there. They have not the mass to go back to lyman etc. And if they just repulse UKR to the river, they will be in less favorable defensive position than now.
May be its to fix UKR reserves, but ukr have lots of not used reserves.
Its probably just politic. They can say they still attacking.
The troops waste there are urgently needed in bakmut
if its true they have committed major elements from 2 VDV divs in Bakhmut area, that would tell a story of itself. I agree with you they lack necessary push to get to lyman, but its russians, they made worse in the past. So far seem to force UKR to fix them where they are or bring more from unused reserves.
The Russian military really needs a reform and makeover. The old Russian generals constantly fight using ready-made attack tactics from 50-year-old books. Hardly any ingenuity, innovation and spontaneity… Always just scheme F.
I think that’s exactly what is happening. The Russians were accumulating a lot of forces in Luhansk for a long time. The strategy was to launch an offensive in Sloboda the moment the Ukrainians would launch an offensive in Zaporizhzhia. Human waves should not be underestimated, that’s how Pavlivka and Bakhmut fell to poccian hands
No when ukrain cross the border, we have the proof that secret russian reserves doesnt exist in this area. Russia had to take unit from the front to paste their frontier.
Dont overestimated human waves. They fail in 99% of the case (they were not use only in bakmut). And the rare result of this strategy are not specialy good. It was long and it cost to many ressource.
well, cant say for 1917 WW1 we probably bit hope for RU will repeat itself, but unit cohesion is something to doubt for sure. in WW2 there were 2 approaches, if i recall right. US – rotation to rear, replenish force and work on cohesion and German- continuous stream to existing units and train them on front. both had its cons and pros. I doubt RU mobiks goes through GER system or even US…
i mean they get to the unit like in GER system, the question is if there is system behind to teach them quickly up to some standard. Given their complaints about equip, corruption and bullying…I dont mean its 100% of units, just saying its no longer same army it was 500 days ago. It could work while on defense, but offense needs some coordination and skill, right?
according to rumors in the Russia, the task was to recruit 400k new soldiers into the army without mass mobilization. Ads hung in all cities of the Russian Federation since March. Many people in camouflage were on trains south during June. But I’m not sure that most of them have combat experience or even an understanding of where they are going.
again, just speculating, but they´ve got each year 2 cycles for general service duty winter/autumn with about 110-140k conscripts. There had been article about “hidden” recruitment providing 20k stream each month. Id be wondering if thats whats meant for 400k or regardless. It does not seem they will run out this year or next without rebellion or breakthrough and like you said, lacking quality.
In the first year of the war it was forbidden in Russia to send conscripts to the URK. After conscription you could sign up and fight in the UKR. But I don’t know if that’s still the case. For most volunteers, the motivation is money. They get more in a month than some Russians earn in a year.
All these people know is TV propaganda. They believe that if Ukraine returns to Crimea, then all the houses will be taken away, they will be killed and their dogs will be eaten (or something like that). I really know people from Crimea who think that they are better off in Russia. And there are many
They don’t care that in fact nothing has improved, there are more cars, income has become higher, but prices have also risen. Under Ukraine, they had money only for today, the same thing under Russia. But people are so happy that they are ready to die for it
And then there are the families, quite a few of whom are happy that their loved one died because they can use the death benefit to buy a car or renovate the house. That’s why some families send their children to the UKR, only because of the financial prospects… stupid, poor people
but thats not full picture, is it. So far Putin is heavily trying to avoid taking white Russians to the front and majority couldnt care less about minorities or poor or convicts…so grieving at home like aghanistan 79 is long shot. For conscripts, its forbidden, yet, there were various articles about that it happened even to conscripts, though cant say how many.
given the annexation of UKR territory, can you say conscript dont serve on mother russia land? I mean, its Russia, can invent what they want for the purpose. Plus again various articles how men are being persuaded to sign contract with army or forced to stay even after contract expires. Problem with these articles is, they cant map full landscape, so hard to guess if its minor problem or some crac
You are right, there are laws in RUS that are meant to be broken. PMC are banned in the country, but they officially exist. Prisoners who are serving a sentence may not have the first sentence waived for a further sentence (offence in UKR). It will certainly be the same with the conscripts. It should be noted that Putin protects this group of people in particular.
there is no such thing as ‘law’ in the RF. We may be familiar with dysfunctionality and corruption of our govenments but RF (and China and countries like India, Hungary or Poland and sadly UK which are drifting in different speed in that direction). But RF is a completely different Universe.
Saying that government of RF is similar to Poland is such a nonsense.
Polish gov. (just like the other I mentioned) is drifting in that direction and that authoritarian drift is dangerous. There are numerous typs and stages of cancer. Cancer it still is.
i dont know, id rather compare Russia to Mexico where mafia can do what they want in the open, thinking Russia is in its own league because goverment, oligarchs and rest IS the mafia. While China is indeed corrupt, its different. Poland may lean to authoritarian way, not there yet, also different case. Wouldnt put them in the same sack, when 2 do the same, its not the same.
as I’ve said above – it’s not a on/off switch, it is a process which unfortunatelly is going on.
I prefer using the term ‘cartel’ rather than ‘mafia’ in regard to the RU structure of functioning.
will be interesting to see how it pans out. They have bit experience with Pilsudski in 20-30s. Id say Hungary is bit further in state demontage and here is Turkey too moving from secular to islamic way. All NATO members. May happen to Slovakia, elections around the corner. Polish have now what they didnt have: EU and NATO, hope that will slow down the trend as much as possible.
well , let’s hope so. Ignoring the trend would be stupid (and neither NATO nor EU are magic bullets).
I know, thats why said they hopefully slow it,and if they slow it enough, maybe Orban and Kaczyński die before they cement autocracy. Problem is, we saw 20th century, but would it repeat itself or create a new quality and reality? …eg Russia, Belarus and others.
cartel is nice word, its definition truly fits. Problem i see with that is breaking or creating the law on government structure. If i stick with that, id say then yes, mafia cartel. They still kill people and they do whatever they want. For that, id still kept closer RU to MEX than POL to RUS. China is bit in shady zone…not that far from RU in terms of state power able to kill you… Read more »
I tend to use that term because of cartels’ ability to sustain kind of ‘anarchic goverments’ ruled by ‘efficient corruption’ (of sort). ‘Mafias’ are more personal and ‘feudal’. Polish conundrum is complicated and has its own troubling recent history. If in the next elections the Lawlessness and Disorder (and growing up reactionary proxies) will win again, there will be a serious question ->
-> if in the next decades there will be any elections at all (besides autocratic plebiscites like in RU or Hungary).
I tend to stick with mafia cartel due to its criminal aspect since cartel in general can be also allowed in law. Putins rule is personaly tied around his KGB and Petrohrad fellow mates. Putin as “capo di tutti capi” or “vor v zakone” for sure. But generally I understand youre saying and agree with you. Although not sure what to do with it or how to resolve it…
Keep up fighting against it, where ever you are. Rule of law and democracy have to be defended always, anywhere. It is all we can and should do.
in general i understand youre implying but still in reality my fighting against it wont do a bit in Russia, maybe in my home country…
well, I suppose you do not want to have your country transformed into its own version of Russia, so…
guys, the main differnce between us is reality now versus possible future. My country is separate issue than autocracy in Russia. Russia can influence it, but now Russia is the threat, not my country. I can defend in my country, but how do i prevent Russia to meddle or be in need of meddling. That was my original point.
0kk