Invasion Day 498 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 6th July 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novoselivske, Karmazynivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bilohorivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian forces advanced towards Bekrhivka and Yahidne in the north-western part of Bakhmut. (source)
- Ukrainian troops, likely 22nd Mechanized Brigade, managed to advance and reach the northern edge of former Ukrainian fortified positions on the hills near Klishchiivka. (source)
- Soldiers of 3rd Assault Brigade attacked and entered Russian positions east of Klishchiivka. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Ivanivske, Bila Hora
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Pervomaiske
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Several sources claimed that Ukrainian forces liberated Pryyutne village south of Rivnopil. As of writing this article, there’s been no confirmation of this by neither the officials nor geolocated footage.
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Novomykhailivka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
- Russian forces seem to have a problem reaching the southern edge of the Dacha area north of Oleshky. Ukrainian forces likely expanded their area of control there. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
All is fair in love and war. Yet, recent developments with cluster munitions show that there are issues with counteroffesive. Otherwise US Government would not allow to transfer it.
It’s banned by many civilised countries and for me it’s not good news. It only means that the war becomes more brutal and there will be more and more victims.
My only hope is that Biden knows what he’s doing.
Well Russia can simply end this war by withdrawing from Ukrainian territory. This war could be over in 1 day and no cluster munitions need to be used – the longer Russia tries to steal foreign territory the nastier the weapons
Did you know that russia use a lot of cluster munitions against ukrainian city?
Yes, i know that. Does it give us right to use the same means as the oppresor? They also kill civilians, POWs and much more barbaric stuff.. it’s certainly not someting we will ever accept. All I am saying is that it goes into wrong direction. I wonder why people are so supportive about it, and not urging the west to deliver conventional weapon instead.
I get your point, but it is a necessary weapon for Ukraine. Cluster munitions aren’t going to make Zaporizhzhia more dangerous than it already is – the area is filled with mines everywhere, but what these weapons can do is at least give the Ukrainians a chance to liberate their lands – otherwise the Russians will eradicate the Ukrainian language and democracy in Zaporizhzhia forever
May be because i am sure that ukrain will not use them like russia.
They will use them probably against field fortifications. Aeras already full of tank and anti personnal mine.
The GMLRS rockets we’ve all lauded for the last year are literally cluster munitions. Why do you suddenly care now? The munitions being provided have a 2% or lower failure rate. Russian cluster munitions have (some sources claim) a 40% failure rate. That is in reference to each individual submunition.
check before writing.
‘Cluster munitions’ about which this talk is about are devices containing submunitions (simplifying: ‘mini bombs’). Problem are failures (‘duds’) which makes them mines in effect. Western have rate up to 4% RU ones ~40% (which makes this debate pointless).
GMLRS (etc) delivers nonexplosive payload. They become metal salvage not mines on the ground.
Ukraine is finally getting western cluster munitions
So they will meet eastern cluster munition.
they already do. RUAF uses them from the beginning. Soit’s not ‘about time’ it’s quite late to the party.
Some signs than there are troubles in the RUssian Paradise:
There are as well some troubles in propaganda side from great counteroffensive taking crimea in a week to “all as planned and russia falls anyway” 🙂
would you dare to place an actual quote (and not from Western clueless media and their ‘experts’ )?
Nobody with brain expected ‘lightning success’ (just like nobody expected RU Kahovka’s screw-up).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/15/mariupol-will-host-eurovision-2023-pledges-volodymyr-zelensky/
Here he pledged to host Eurovision in mariupol.
The winter offensive, became spring offensive which then became summer offensive…
I was asking about military declaration, not political statement (or psy-ops from Budanov). But a nice try.
Not sure what you mean by nice try, and I’m not either sure why my other reply with more sources was deleted. Are there anyone here censoring comments?
there is moderating queve.
aggravating BS tends to be deleted, though.
It’s not censoring, but moderating. I’m leaving you a pretty large freedom here, but if you cross certain lines, your comment will be deleted.
The US cannot stop aid because that would strengthen China. In addition, that would also be a defeat against Russia. Both cases are incompatible with the American people. The US has just as much to lose in a Putin “victory” as UKR.However, what we are already seeing is the disappearance of any Russian strength in the international community. When Putin leaves, he leaves as a failure.
He rode down the economy, frightened the people, didn’t satisfy the war supporters, isolated RUS internationally. Scared off the main suppliers, dependent on China and Iran. And your own army is just a shadow of what it used to be. Nobody is afraid of the Russian military anymore. Putin will not end the war because that is the only way he can delay and sit out his political defeat.
wow… so many things so wrong…
this is what propaganda does to someone…
hmmm enlighten us and in a true neutral fashion point which statement is wrong. Please.
The US has just as much to lose in a Putin “victory” as UKR
Its infamous bullshit. Russian rape ukrainain and sterilise them with mastic. and its just one example of what ukrain lose when russia win.
Interesting developments in the Oleshky area. There’s only one road through the swamp, which should favor Russia, but it looks like Ukraine was actually able to turn this to their advantage.
A major attack across the Dnipro is still unlikely, but it no longer sounds as crazy as it did a few days ago.
Twelve months ago Russians were bulling Ukrainian brigades with sheer artillery firepower. Now they can’t push a small Ukrainian contingent off an island and instead are forced back across the Oleshky bridge.
The relative strength of forces is shifting in Ukraine’s favor, but in the age of ADD everyone expects big and bold offensives that may not be prudent right now.
There is still time to develop different scenarios. There are reports that cluster munitions will be handed over to Ukraine, who knows how they will affect the course of the battle, if they are used en masse by artillery, then there are chances that the fortified areas of the Russians may be broken.
But these are just thoughts. In any case, Russia will not be able to seize the initiative until October, because it does not have the resources for this.
Perhaps Zelensky’s recent visits (to the Czech Republic, Bulgaria) indicate that Ukraine did not receive enough weapons to implement a counteroffensive, time will tell.
Weeb Union recently listed three scenarios necessary for Ukrainian victory:
1. internal issues in Russia
2. some brilliant tactical move by Ukrainian army
3. direct NATO involvement
Not improbable, but neither is certain. About #1 I have no idea, #2 is like expecting a miracle and #3 is kind of scary. And if nothing happens the chances of Ukraine, I am sorry to say, aren’t great.
ad 1. only if putin dies
ad 2. hardly probable- would already happen
ad 3. no way
So bottom line is the war will be not over until putin lives and if not for me most probable scenario is on autumn (october) some treaty (Ukraine in nato instead of what is already taken goes to rus)
Treaty this automn? No
No camp can force the other to sign something in this delay.
That is actually ease. One word from USA to stop support to Ukraine and war will be over within month.
Nope. The USA don’t control Ukraine.
On the other hand, one word (“Retreat!”) from Putin and the war will be over within a day.
Ukraine is completely dependent on the West financially and militarily. Its economy and demographics are destroyed, the country functions artificially, gets into huge debt. That said, western aid is miserably small and only prolongs the suffering for years to come.
Putin won’t retreat, he wants to keep at least the current territories annexed by Russia. It’s unrealistic to believe otherwise.
Its unrealistic to believe russia could conquer the annexed territories.
Its only putin who make suffering ukrain. And he could stop it now.
Even if Ukraine loses support from the West (they won’t), do you really think they will give up everything and accept Russia’s rule ?
No. they will continue the fight. It will be more difficult, there will be more suffering, more death. But the fight will continue.
On the other hand, Putin can decide to give up at any time. He is the one who prolongs the suffering.
Putin (an his supporters) is responsible for every death. Every single one.
And don’t speak for the Ukrainians. They are the one willing to fight. They know Putin. They know what they are fighting for. They don’t want a “peace deal” that is only an opportunity for Putin to get a stronger army and invade them again in a few years.
it’s pretty unrealistic to take a breath, even if you ignore all the pollution you still will die anyway. Why bother mate?
actually the probability of an event you described is very tiny but non-zero.
I’d agree that the ‘morons-in-charge’ does not enough and often too little to late (though get serious, the actual – not just declared – support skyrocketed and is pretty steady) but there is an other concern. What use of Western Europe will have Ukraine if in France wins Vichy Party (aka: NF) or AFD in G?
politics is the problem and Russia and her minions does a real work to make it harder.
He didn’t say USA control Ukraine. But if USA stop the support to Ukraine, they will probably have to reconsider a lot. USA is the country providing the most.
Europe is far behind because armies have been neglected by most of its members.
That’s not true, for the last half a year most of the equipment Ukraine receives is european.
Americans are barely doing anything, their aid is the smallest of all compared to military capabilities. Thousands pieces of any equipment are available, yet Ukraine receives only few dozens, no jets or missiles.
Please understand that the US is REALLY FAR AWAY from Europe. Europe does not have the capacity to build, maintain, and repair US equipment at the scale Ukraine needs. It would take weeks instead of days to get heavy equipment to and from the frontlines for maintenance or repair. Add in training time for crews. It makes sense for Europe to lead efforts to provide Ukraine heavy equipment.
I’m not sure how this has devolved into some sort of conspiracy. It’s just literally the most sensible thing to do. Germany, Poland, the UK etc, I trust we can agree, are a helluva lot closer to Ukraine.
Excuses for what? Europe COULD have the capacity to do this after several years. Poland is actively building a large-ish Abrams fleet (through 2026). That doesn’t help Ukraine today. It literally just makes more sense in the current environment for Europe to supply European tanks using their existing infrastructure. This is hardly a contentious idea.
Before tanks were ever delivered, it seemed like everyone here was on the same page: European tanks first, then maybe Abrams as infrastructure gets built, parts become available, and crews get trained to maintain them. We were already expecting Abrams to be delayed quite some time if they were ever going to be delivered at all.
Now it’s suddenly somehow this big problem. Makes no sense.
Reconsider a lot . Yes.
But just EU support is largely enough to stop any russia offensiv.
Remember with what ukrain stop russia this winter. And russia will never again have an army as strong as this winter. And ukrain didnt need to use all they have to control russian offensive. They were using this time to prepare their offensiv .
How they defined “ukrain victory”?
1) its already the case. And it will not go better.
2) ukrain are good. Russian still very bad.
Did they do scénario for “Russian victory”? And how they defined it?
Nb: who is weeb union?
Weeb union is a russian propagandist.
Ukraine could easily win IF the USA would support that. So there is a fourth way to win this war for Ukraine.
The US is ‘THE’ NATO, so it goes under #3. And no, just ‘providing mil help’ doesn’t work apparently (so far at least). Americans played you, the Germans, pretty neatly looks like
He starts his videos with “hello comrades” when Russia is advancing and with “hello friends” when Ukraine is advancing
WU is a YT milblogger, ‘a Russian propagandist’.
A victory is a condition, when someone is strategically better after the war than before, e.g. Crimea is back to Ukraine, Putin is in Hague wearing ball and chain, Zelensky buys a new house (or two), stuff like that.
generally a victory is what you call it. Paradoxally Putin could just do that around taking Mariupol. ‘denazified’? Check. ‘disarmed’ Check. ‘Zelensky in negotiation mode?’ (he was from the start of his tenure Putin just ignored him) Check. ‘Russia SKRONK!’ Check.
If he would call the victory and went back to the 2014 line he would probably got Donbass&Luhansk ->
Well, if you say so. I am a mere mortal, I don’t have confidential sources and I have no idea about who’s the good, the bad and the ugly here. So I am just shooting shit and listen to what more educated and knowledgeable people have to say. btw, the Russians are saying the opposite, they were totally ready to negotiate, and there was even some progress, but the Western partners intervened
You have one state who invaded another, with soviet flag, new educationnal books (first days) and who decorated the heroes of Bucha. And you dont know who is good or bad? Yes you are neutral of course.
Stop propagand. Zelenski proposed something very generous . Russia respond officially that this proposition is inacceptable, they stop negociate and that the war will decide.
But you need to remember that in donbas russians are fighting which were born there from dlr and lnr and not only russians from russia. crimea was taken without one shot and most of staff joined rus. for them they are fighting for their freedom and then west is bad. more of it, they are ready to die for this.
oh. really? Have you heard that from the great Donbas heroes like e.g. ‘Motorola’?
You need to remember that never russia ask his advice to local population.
Crimea, its russian army with massiv superiority who go outside to their barracks.
Dombass, its principaly russian army and russian pmc.
Most of Dnr/lnr/russian doesnt fight to their country. They fight because nobody let them another choice. And sometimes because russian TV teach them that ukrain is nazi.
/in Yoda’s voice/ Bad everybody is. Ugly life is. Goodness difficult to find. Yes, hrrmm.
there is only one thing true in the Russia and this is a lie.
At the beginning of the war (1st few weeks when everything was in a panic mode and the West was in the ‘brownpants’ one) there was call from Zelensky for Putin into negotiation which in practice was a surrender without a complete meltdown of the country (which was Putin’s demands). It was ignored.
We need to find someone from Russia to repeat your first sentence, Epimenides would have approved.
I suppose that would have been Minsk agreement v.3. Right now it’s a carefully escalating proxy war between Russia, the West and also there is a bunch of bystanders, Ukraine at this point is just a battleground. And who owns Donbass in the end is important, but of course it wasn’t the main reason
No . Stop dreaming.
Its not WW3 with russia who fight against the WEST. Its russian propagand to explain their bad results.
Its a war between Russia who dream to be great soviet empire again and Ukrain with small (to small for a lot of people) support from western.
And this support is small principaly beacause we dont want a collapse of russia.
Let’s see:
1. Russia (R) broke the rules and invaded Ukraine
2. West (W) didn’t like it and started to provide help to Ukraine (U)
3. R is stronger than U, but W is stronger than both R and U
4. The help to U is crucial, without it U has no chance
Ergo, W is – indirectly – participating in the conflict, which means a proxy war.
Which statement is propaganda here?
False Conclusion. …
nope. You either have memory of a bacteria or are just ignorant (which the rest of the sentence seems to point to). The ‘Minsk” (and later ‘Stanbul’) negotiations were later at the time when it was clear that ‘Desert Storm in Ukraine’ was a failure.
Noelle, why would you communicate with bacterias (while stating that this is what you are doing)?
I was referring to Minsk protocol(s) which took place before all these excitements had started. Didn’t work, there is no sign this would work now and all parties know this, the guns are talking. So all this talk about Putin or Zelensky refusing to negotiate is just rubbish
‘Minsk protocols’ were forced on Ukraine by FR & GER after Russia started supporting ‘spontaneous insurgency’ (ignited by nice guys like Girkin/Strelkov) practically openly saving the skin of these ‘brave warriors’. Neither side actually keep it and Zelensky’s tenure came with promise (among the others, he was considered moderate pro-Ru candidate in the elections, yep) to make this work.->
it’s not a ‘proxy war’. It will become one if ‘peace-seekers’ will be able to froze the conflict until either putinism completely destroy Russia (they kinda are going int the right direction) or uncle Vova will test article 5 which was and is his intention. Just not now.
Fr and ger force nothing. They were not able to force a camp to sign something.
Both camp were not ready for this war. Its why they sign a cease of fire.
During this cease of fire, both camp prepare the next round of this war.
oh completely they did not. Let it be then ‘they used substantial level of economic and political coercion’.
(1st post in moderation)
–> (including newly aquired territories), Crimea ‘no-NATO clause’ and some sanctions would be lifted.
The point is that the Ukraine is just a stop on the map as gruesome as this sounds. As long as Putin&Patrushev&Co are drawing breath there will be no peace.
I didnt agree to your restrictiv définition .
We can condider that the fact that ukrain still existing like a victory for example. Or we can consider that ukrain victory will only happens when russia sign his capitulation or all russian territory annexed.
My definition is just one of many. WU probably meant a ‘clear, undisputed’ victory with one side completely in control at the end of it. Just looking at how things are, it’s either that, a definitive victory (ideally without ww3), or a frozen conflict like Korea. atm I just cannot imagine Putin, Zelensky, Biden and Xi smiling, shaking hands and signing some compromise agreement about Ukraine
It looks like it would be very humiliating for Putin to give back the territories they declared as annexed, but look at the Prigozhin story – how easily it was declared that there are no charges against him as if nothing happened. So I would not be surprised if Lavrov would declare one day that say annexing Kherson and then giving up on it was just a clever Putin plan, then smile and shake hands.