Invasion Day 486 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 24th June 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Berestove
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Vesele
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- The commander of 3rd Assault Brigade Andriy Biletsky reported that soldiers of the brigade cleared the remaining Russia-controlled areas west of the canal. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Ivanivske
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Vuhledar, Zolota Nyva
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
da da da,pod`edyt WAGNERA
According to an unnamed senior US military official, the US committed 113 Bradley vehicles in March of which “at least 17” (more than 15%) have been damaged or destroyed so far. Not sure whether it’s a little or a lot but it’s an interesting info one can probably trust. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/26/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive.html
Resource and equipment-wise Ukraine is in a precarious situation. It will require clever tactics to breach the Russian fortifications, but at the very least Ukraine seems to have changed its method of operations as noted by colonel Markus Reisner, a in my opinion very trustworthy source, and isn’t doing the same mistake as Russia – attacking the same way all the time
17, that is the number recorded by Oryx. It’s even 18 with the latest update. So your “unamed senior military official” is just quoting a public information.
Not surprising, given that the numbers in the “pentagon leaks” documents were also copied from Oryx.
You know, the site you distrusted.
Ok if so, good point for Oryx then.
why?
isn’t the fact that Almighty Pentagon is plagiarising Oryx even more infuriating and making them even more unreliable?
Man… are you having some crisis? I am worried, bro 😉
That’s why it’s important to cut off supplies to the Russians. UKR therefore urgently needs more long-range missiles. Apparently, the RUS has built impregnable defenses. So the strategy should be to bleed the RUS dry without attacking them (no ammo, no food). Either the RUS will rot away from hunger and thirst, or they will surrender.
The USA just sent another 45 and I think they did send 150 before, so we are at 195 now, as far as I know.
Rivnopil has been liberated
for all desperately looking for some kind of conspiratory explanation, Maxim made an interesting (as usual) comment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOKqbalm62U
Interesting thesis… If it really happened the way we all saw it, then we can state one thing. The Russian security forces are disloyal to the state, probably due to their dissatisfaction.Russia has never been more vulnerable than now, and Putin doesn’t have his security forces under control if there’s a mutiny. After a fall attempt, it took Gorbachev 5 months before it finally happened.
there is also Vlad’s take [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5680U8ZQVMk ] if you are interested. They are both worth listening as interpreters, just remember taht Katz has ‘Russian liberal’ agenda and is a part of the younger political generation while Vlad is an academic.
Beast of such size as Russia does not go dawn by one night.
Interesting… I don’t know those two. How are their statements to be evaluated? Russia-friendly and anti-Ukrainian or neutral and realistic in which both sides are treated equally.ISW also does very good analyses, but they are very critical of Russia and too much of a party for the West/UKR side.
Sorry, Vlad Vexler tell me something. Had already read some of his Twitter/Telegram posts. But I didn’t pursue it further because I think it tended too much in the conspiratorial direction.
Vlad is an academic – political philosopher. He may sound strange if you are not familiar with the academic language and manner of discourse. Though he is quite good with translation into ‘youtube layman’ speak.
That was a great move by Prigozhin.
By doing nothing Prigozhin’s stature was tied to the future outcome of the war. Prigozhin sees that the war is not going well. He washed his hands from war and at the same time is only person in Russian public opinion with military success and tried to do something to avert disaster.
Now he gets to wait in Belarus for what comes next, ready to act as savior.
Prigozhin failed in the revolt because important allies in the Kremlin backed down.
Let’s say he succeeded. What would that have achieved?
He would still have the war tied around his neck. Taking power would have lead to huge disruptions and losing the war would lead to his end too.
He has extricated himself from the war while Putin and others are still tied to it. Like I said, I think he was positioning himself for what comes afterwards. You might be right, just conjecture.
Agree with you. Prigo is the smartest guy from all this russian mafia, he will let Pypa, Shoigu and others collapse and fail. And afterwards take all the country as the “effective” leader.
As part of the deal, the Wagners who didn’t take part in the mutiny will be put in the regular army, and the ones who did take part will face no punishment. But I still don’t understand what’ll happen to them. Will they just be turned loose? If so, it means that Russia is losing its most effective soldiers.
Assuming that Putin won’t just tear up the deal when it’s convenient for him.
contractors will go to the африканскую провинцию I suppose. Even IED once a week would be a vacations on Riviera in comparisation for their last 6 months. Criminals would be either swallowed by the Army (willingly or not) or just set loose – so they will become police/rosgwardia problem, not Army’s.
They already put some on the streets in small doses with obvious outcomes but ‘who cares?’
Prigozhin failed his coup – because Wagner was not strong enough to win against the troops loyal to Putin.
And Putin wasn’t strong enough to punish the “traitor” – at least not openly.
So all is good for Ukraine.
Sure, it would have been better if the rebellion lasted longer, but the result is that both Putin and Wagner are weaker now.
In what will this weakness be expressed? We need specific criteria to test your predictive abilities.
I’d rather say that his slim (anyway) chances for a ‘coup’ were dereiled because of lack of any substantial political support. Sure, he might reach and even storm the Kremlin, and ‘what next?’. Possibility of quick extermination of existing Putin’s court was around 0. And Prig. is not a guy getting hard with power because ‘POWER!’.
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Russia is not a country. It is a cartel with big territory and population. And Prig. is a bussinesman in the ‘funeral bussines’ which went really badly for him lately, apparently.
For a Putin’s ‘vertical’ this show is a poison pill, though.
People gathered along the street and cheered, grabbed Wagners hands during Wagners marching &leaving the military base. It’s marked new chapter of Prighozin in Russian Politics. I think he got many supporters in low rank regular militaries and vast growing Russian ultranationalists. The loose of Putin means for the shining of Prighozin. Not good news for them wanting Putin’s down
Lots of people taking picture or watch the column. Just a few of them support clearly wagner.
Probably, prigo will not be autorized to make politics or public declaration. And no garantee for him to survive . Windows are dangerous.
I think it’s safe to say he’s dead. He’ll probably be poisoned or fall down the stairs accidentally in a month’s time. I’m happy with what happened in Russia. Russia is destabilized, Putin’s cowardice exposed, corrupt figures remain in power, Prigozin did not come to power and some military equipment was destroyed
Russia is destabilized and so on? What should happen? The same thing was said about mobilization
Oh, one of the clowns. Hahaha…
Max, how are the incomparable Western tanks doing? I remember you had high hopes for them. Maybe I need to dig through your comments from six months ago.
Max comments at least 6 times under each post
Tanks? I believe in the ukrainian will to win and that Russia is a joke.
Every time you call me a clown, I’ll pull out your past prediction and then we’ll see who works in the circus
So quote me, you troll clown. No wrong prediction will change that Russia is a bad joke, a very bad that is. My main prediction was: Winter is coming for Russia. Now tell me I am wrong, you clown.
So it turns out your predictions are wrong? Then why torment your fingers? Are you chasing the doubts out of your head?
Well, where are those quotes? I gave you one for free. Now, tell me, is winter here for Russia or not? My fingers are fine. How does it feel to defend a state full of clowns, murders and criminals? Or is that wrong to? Clown…
‘if you have some grievances, get a gun – bigger the better – and bunch of criminals for companions and go to Moskow. Uncle Vova will make a deal’
Sure. That’s very stable regime… Please continue (but ask for a raise, spilling that nonsense needs a serious compensation).
Doubted that. Prigo getting political Support from ‘Just Russia’ party, having lot of money, having troll factories, having die-hard supporters, militias, guns. They could easily entered Rostov O Don military base, and chereed by people. He is not as mooron as what western think. Its Shoigu & Gerasimov who gonna be removed or killed if they failed. No reason Putin kill Prigo.
Killing Prigozhin while surrounded by Wagner soldiers is a bad idea. But a sign that he can be eliminated at any time is that he has gone into exile in Belarus. He won’t live there safely either, but it’s the only country where he can still enter and at the same time finance Wagner. Shoigu and Gerasimov are not to blame, it’s Putin who makes the mistakes. Everyone else just does what he wants.
He also has alot of enemies that want him gone and his business will probably suffer from this move, the mercs need to be payed or they leave. Wagner might survive but it will be harder to run without the same backing from Russia. Perhaps Prigo knew he was an active target and saw no other way out than to pay that price.
During the siege of Belgorod and the non -occupied leadership command, the UKR is said to have penetrated to the outskirts of Donetsk. Does anyone know more?
Wich war are you talking about? WW1 ? WW2?
Siege of Belgorod? My man don’t spoiler the war pls, we’re still in the Donetsk arc rn
I think you mean Rostov and not Belgorod?!
That was a typo, but smart people know what I mean.
Man, that was fun. Russia is such a fucked up clown circus. To bad they didn’t kill each other. What a failed state.