The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 22nd June 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).

Sloboda Front

includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Siverskyi Donets

overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Dibrova, Bilohorivka, Serebrianka

Bakhmut Front

includes the vicinity of Bakhmut

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Ivanivske, Bila Hora

Avdiivka Front

includes the vicinity of Avdiivka

  • Ukrainian forces have recaptured its fortified positions north of Vodyane and pushed the enemy back to the settlement. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Avdiivka, Sieverne, Pervomaiske

Donetsk Front

includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast

  • Paratroopers of Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade conducted a localized counter-attack south-east of Krasnohorivka and captured Russian positions. (source)
  • Ukrainian troops assaulted towards Russian positions west of Makarivka, and made some progress in the area. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Sieverne, Pervomaiske, Marinka, Pobieda, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar

Zaporizhzhia Front

includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast

  • Ukrainian forces advanced towards Robotyne settlement, and gained new ground. (source)

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • Pyatykhatky

Kherson Front

includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka

Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:

  • No activity reported.

Full map of Ukraine

overview map of current situation in Ukraine

This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.

We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.

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Gordon

Quite a good result, according to some sources, 13 aircraft crew members died. Lost

3 - MI8 - REB
1 - MI8
1 - MI35M
1- KA52
1 - IL22
Indonesian Robb

People gathered along the street and cheered, grabbed Wagners hands during Wagners marching &leaving the military base. It’s marked new chapter of Prighozin in Russian Politics. I think he got many supporters in low rank regular militaries and vast growing Russian ultranationalists. The loose of Putin means for the shining of Prighozin. Not good news for them wanting Putin’s down

Kay

We shouldn’t overrate Wagner. It’s not the PMC it was 2 years ago. Most of the members were former soldiers with war experience. They were elite soldiers who actually knew their trade.Wagner now consists of 80% men who were recruited at random. In prisons and on the streets. They have neither experience nor knowledge of how to fight in wars. Their only knowledge is from a 2-week training

Kay

The PMC lost their best people in the UKR. This is one of the main reasons why Prigozhin has such a great hatred of the Russian military leadership. Russia let Wagner out while the regulars were in the back and staying out of the way. For Prigozhin, the war has now become a personal farce because he has lost so many of his fighters and knows that recruiting cannot compensate for this.

Kay

His business in Africa is in jeopardy.
The long-standing Wagner members must have been upset with Prigozhin, too, because so many good men had to die so senselessly. Knowing that they can always be next as long as they keep fighting in the UKR.

Patrick

Ok everybody calm down. It’s over

Patrick

Lukashenko negotiated Prigozhin’s decision to turn around. The criminal case against Prigozhin will be closed and Prigozhin will leave for Belarus. Wagner fighters are reportedly withdrawing from Rostov.

MeNeutral

man this was quite the eventful day

Kay

It all stinks to high heaven. If Wagner Söldner and Prigozhin get away with it just because they didn’t invade Moscow, Russia would be open to blackmail. And a clear admission that the Russian government is unable to defend the country against mercenaries. For Putin, this is an enormous loss of power and makes his person vulnerable.

Kay

And what is Prigozhin supposed to do in Belarus? The risk of dying there is just as high as in Russia…

Noelle

not exactly – I’d rather say: ‘it’s another part of in mediam res’. Today Russ narrative, finallian society got a message: ‘if you have some problem, get a gun and buddies and walkt to Moscow’.
This is a disaster no matter how finally awoken from a stupor propaganda (and vatnics, they got a narrative to push, finally) will spin that.

Noelle

sry my keyboard behaves wildly tonight x.x

Max Beckhaus

Maylar: Ukrainian large scale offensive started. Russian sources: Fighting at antonvski bridge, left, eastern side of dnjpr. May the force be with you Ukraine. Sizing the moment for history. Godspeed. Slava ukraini!

Pikująca Szozda

The Wagners are already passing through Lipetsk Oblast. According to Google Maps (which is helpfully plotting a course to avoid the roadblocks on M4) that’s a little more than six hours away from Moscow.

Patrick

Prigozhin crossed the red line. He enjoys no support from the political class, patriotic bloggers or the regular armed forces. The population is on Putin’s side. His days are counted.

Max Beckhaus

I need more popcorn! Putin eating the shit he produced. I love it! Let’s wait and see which criminal wins. I wouldn’t underestimate Prigozhin, he knows how to coup and his force is no joke.

Tristan

What happened to Patrick ?

A few days ago, he was praising the “tens of thousands” of Wagner, saying how strong they were. And now they rebel, and Patrick is not amused.

But, to correct Patrick one more time: Prigozhin does enjoy strong support from part of the political class, patriotic bloggers, the general population and the regular armed forces. He didn’t try his coup alone.

Patrick

What’s your point little clown? There are tens of thousands of Wagner troops and they are strong. Today’s events don’t disprove it, on the contrary.

Tristan

Your comment was erased by Jerome, you wrote it again, with the same insult, and the same misinformation.

There are not “tens of thousands” of Wagner troops, only several thousands. They were not strong enough to face Putin’s security troops (about ~15k in Moscow) and Prigozhin prefered to fold. Yesterday events proved me right.

Patrick

Well you asked for it. I did not provoke you. And BTW, you were right about what? Did I or you ever evoke the scenario of a confrontation between Wagner and the regular army? Never. Another miss.

Tristan

I was right about the size of Wagner (5-10k) and that they are no longer a threat for Ukraine.

And I also was right about the lack of strategic reserve in Russia. Russian army throws everything they have in Ukraine, keeping almost no troop in Russia.

Patrick

Where is the evidence for your 5-10 K claim?

Pikująca Szozda

How do we know what side the population is on? Gauging the popular opinion is very hard in a country where certain opinions are punishable by prison.

Patrick

Prigozhin is on a personal crusade. People see it.

Indonesian Robb

What Prighozin want is just more brutal war and destroying ukranians whatever it costs and as soon as possible. I think there will be concession. If so, it will be bad news for Ukrainians.

Food for though

I agree. He uses the social media to pass his message. People that use them and can listen to this message, if they are interested in the war, because there are those that aren’t interested, will be able also to see other videos of the front. So they know that it hasn’t collapsed and they aren’t losing big territories. So they won’t support him.

Last edited 10 months ago by Food for though
Food for though

Also the elite and the army most likely will not support him because they will not want to change “the devil you know” to someone they don’t and possibly is more warmonger than Putin and wants to transform Russia to a big military camp. I think that he didn’t want to lose his army with the contracts, he feels that they need him because of his troop loyalty and they would like to negotiate with… Read more »

Pikująca Szozda

Damn. A lot of stuff happened while I was asleep.

Prigozhin is trying to buck the “bald-hairy” rule. In Russia, leaders with a full head of hair always alternate with bald ones. This rule was strictly followed for 200 years. (You could argue that Malenkov was an exception; you could also argue that he was just a figurehead, and that the USSR was really ruled by a committee at the time.)

Max Beckhaus

So, what does that mean for Ukraine? In1917 it was the end of the war. I would guess that holds true here to. If those 25k wagnerites fight, I think then it is over.

Triglav

Well there are still Russian troops in Ukraine and they can’t retreat because the Russian side is occupied by pro-Wagner forces. I hope however that Ukraine can take advantage of the situation and that this coup weakens Russia, perhaps starts a civil war, but I also hope that Putin won’t be overthrown by a ultra-nationalist military junta that would play with nukes

Richard

do they actually have the weapons to defend themselves against the Russian Air Force?

Max Beckhaus

Of course… Reportedly shot down some allready. This has been planned and they know what they are doing. Well trained in Africa. Eat your dirt Putin. The only once that could stop them are on the frontline. Once they reach Moscow, aviation is history.

Max Beckhaus

And they will reach Moscow in some hours. I wouldn’t bet on who wins that round.

Gordon

Capturing the capital is quite a good option, but all the scum have long since fled, even the bunker grandfather along with Shoigu are on the run. It is too difficult to trace them without reconnaissance, Russia is very large in area. Although I do not rule out that they have people in intelligence and it is not Russian at all)

Gordon

There is a video confirming that the PMC has Pantsir ammunition, they are loaded on trawls and, if necessary, shoot at aerial targets. There is information about the downed plane, even video confirmation. And 3 helicopters were damaged. There is also a video of firing on KA52
https://t.me/Tsaplienko – Ukraine Journalist, there are many video materials

Pikująca Szozda

They were able to defend themselves against the Ukrainian air force, so probably yes. And it sounds like the regular Russian army rolled over without a fight, so they might have captured anti-air weapons from them.

Noelle

wagnerites and prigozhin are not your friends. Best case scenario is to for Ukr. taking the initiative ASAP and using the potential of confusion and morale flicking on the front exploiting as much as possible while this squabble is going.

Max Beckhaus

“Not my friends” is the understatement of the day. But if they really fight, they will not be beaten by the air force plus riot police and fsb agents. If they fight like they did in bakhmut, this war will be over, that is what I believe.

Noelle

revolt is not a revolution. Prighozin may cosplay Pugachev (as Putin is cosplaing Peter, or Stalin, or Winter Grandpa, depending on the day) but Putin still is the only part od the system which has recognised legitimacy inside RF. It’s definitelly a byproduct of Putin’s ‘divide and conquer’ internal politics gone really wrong. Still – he is the only actor (even if in a coma) able to be a referee.

Noelle

there is (for now) a lot of confusion – which is seen in official channels. But ‘this is all the CIA’s doing’ is already in the air.
(it will take a moment before vatnics take on this narrative).

Max Beckhaus

I mean the war in Ukraine will be over. Who or what will emerge in Russia, hell I don’t know.

Noelle

unfortunately I’d not bet on that much.

Peter

You can add now a map of Moscow 🤣

Max Beckhaus

Good one… 🙂 This is just to good. The demons putler called… Burn Russia, burn, you deserve it.

Triglav

I honestly did not expect Russia to implode. Ukraine now is your chance to liberate Crimea!

Gordon

Russia will not fall apart. This requires many different processes within the state and at least more than 2 years. The fact that the front may collapse after August is quite real. Although it is too early to talk about anything, the mutiny has only just begun.

Gordon

It seems that the situation is already gaining uncontrollable momentum. It’s looking more and more like a mutiny. The next 2 days will be very interesting, all that can be said at this time is that Rostov and Voronezh are under the influence of militants

Max Beckhaus

Criminals killing criminals. I need more popcorn.

dolgan

Yeh me too. But who is behind prigo? They alays go by 2 . one master and his apprentice.

Its better than disney Starwars.

Indonesian Robb

Russians should let Prighozin to become their President

Tristan

After “Kiev in 3 days”, watch the new Special Military Operation “Moscow in 3 days”. Let’s hope a lot of orcs will kill each other.

JJ Gonzo

And from 2nd army in the world to 2nd army in their own shitty state 😉

Gordon

A video appeared where the rotation bases of the PMC Wagner were allegedly fired upon, the attack was carried out by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Looks like a staged video. Agent Girkin points out that all this leads to a coup d’état…

Noelle

don’t get carried away by this.
That saying, the deterioration of RF’s state seems to getting closer for the idiomatic ‘African Somecountry’. For which the writting on the wall was on the 1st day they started empowering private armies and let loose numerous volunteers’ units.

Triglav

The Russians are really strange, let’s hope Ukraine can use this to their advantage and push to Mariupol and Melitopol

Kay

The video is said to have been staged. Prigozhin probably thinks he can use Wagner’s popularity among the RUS population to bring about the overthrow of Putin. Wagner conquers the Kremlin and Prigozhin takes Putin’s place.
I think we are slowly seeing Prigozhin’s downfall, because Russia won’t allow itself to be blackmailed and will ultimately have the upper hand.

Max Beckhaus

I need more popcorn. What a failed state, epic.

Gordon

A video appeared where the rotation bases of the PMC Wagner were allegedly fired upon, the attack was carried out by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Looks like a staged video. Agent Girkin points out that all this leads to a coup d’état. Yes, it all looks very doubtful, but the latest statements of the butcher Prigozhin indicate that the so-called SVO is the fault…

Ciao

Mozzarella pomodoro prosciutto gelato

Zuen

i just want to point out that the source from the Vodyane uses Call of Duty music in its video. Dafuq is wrong with this timeline? Why have combat footage with edgy music. The song is Adrenaline by Jack Wall btw.

RutilantBossi

GenZ is mostly fighting this war

Kay

It is not the first time that shots of fighting on the front with music from computer games is underlaid. Music has been running in many videos from the Ukrainians since the beginning of the war. So nothing special …
Not all drones have microphones to absorb original noises.

Max Beckhaus

The possible Russian Meltipol dilemma: Defend Meltipol and move your logistics 200 km plus thru ukrainian long range fire control along one major road and one railway or retreat. Subdilemmas: 1) Every km lost brings more area into gmlrs range. 2) A retreat will make it even worse, since the logistics will be split.

Max Beckhaus

Possible solution:
1) Russia can bring in enough logistics, to hold the line until Ukraine can’t impose this fight in the south anymore or the mud season stops the fight. Risk: The same problem will be there in 2024, possibly including atacms, Abrams and F16s.
2) Retreat to the isthmus of Crimea in the west and closer to Russia in the east.

Max Beckhaus

Risk of 2): Even though Crimea is very easy to defend, Ukraine may be able to impose a corresponding dilemma here.

Max Beckhaus

I think Russia will not be able to solve this dilemma. In some weeks Ukraine will be able to put pressure across the dnjpr and it has a lot of forces left to put more pressure on the frontline, all of which will increase the logistics needed. The hope for Russia could be, that Ukraine runs out of munitions.

Tristan

I don’t think that the attack on Russian logistics will be enough to force them to leave Melitopol. Ukrainian can’t impose a strict logistics blocage in Melitopol as they did in Kherson, and Russian resisted more thant 2 months in Kherson with all bridges down.

But the burden on Russian logistics may help Ukrainians to silence Russian artillery and pierce the frontline.

Max Beckhaus

That is exactly my point.

Dolgan

Ukrain just can encircle melitopol. It will probably take one year, but melitopol and tokmak will fall like kherson.

And like kherson, russia will probably try to stay in melitopol as long as possible.

Kay

UKR will do everything possible to isolate the Crimea from a distance. Without access and care, no new RUS troops can be moved there. However, the ports must also be put out of operation.
However, I also think that the south can only be brought back by conquering Melitopol. A circle of this city will not be sufficient.

Noelle

that’s (‘Crimea is hard to take/easy to defend’) kind of popular and problematic stance. Crimea was taken almost on march, even if reinforced with defense installations numerous times. It’s not easy to defend, vulnerable to fires, have no inherent ability to sustain large forces (and population) and is strongly dependend on external sustenance.

Noelle

shortly – it’s as much a trap as a defensive position.

Dolgan

Not so easy. Small frontline. It will be a battle of artillery. Russia cant win this artillery battle.

And at this point, no more activ airport in crimea. And also for hélicopter, it will be difficult to hide .

Max Beckhaus

You guys may be right, and as stated above, it may be the same problem all over again. That being said, there are many ports and Russia still controls the sea, more or less.

Kay

Russia only controls the sea militarily because UKR has no military ships available. Russia can only do it with what they currently have in the Black Sea, because a passage lock for warships continues to apply. When all Russian warships are destroyed in the Black Sea, the Black Sea is a gray area.

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