Invasion Day 480 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 18th June 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novoselivske
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Spirne
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Orikhovo-Vasylivka
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Novomykhailivka, Vuhledar
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
- Russian artillery targeted Ukrainian troops in Pyatykhatky, revealing the liberation of the settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
Our community |
Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Ukraine has maybe two more months to do this offensive, otherwise response from rus will be devastating. For the moment they has stopped without any success. This is not good sign.
There are reports of the Russians capturing an important position in a higher elevation area (code name ‘Zverinets’) between Marinka and Novomihailivka. To be followed.
It’s about time to throw the Russians out of the UN Security Council.
Not yet. But yes , hard to stay permanent in CS if you are not a global power.
UK and France are no longer global powers (at best, regional powers). They are still in UNSC.
Russia isn’t one either, the US and China are the only global powers in the UNSC
Sadly, that is impossible. China wouldn’t allow that.
There’s no way Russia can be removed.
I’d be for a more general reform of the UN security council, where there are no superpower vetoes (including that of the US and China)
I absolutely agree with you, but i doubt that any permanent UNSC Member would agree to that. They don’t want to restrict thier own power.
The fact that the UN needs to be reformed is already shown by the declaration of the double right of veto:
The permanent members of the Security Council have a so-called double veto right.This means that they have the right to veto both substantive and procedural issues. The wording of Article 27 of the UN Charter seems to contradict this, according to which procedural issues only require the…
… consent of nine (any) members. However, the question of whether the question at hand is a procedural question is an “other question” within the meaning of Article 27(3) of the UN Charter. Thus, a veto during the vote on this preliminary question means that the question at hand is also to be treated as an “other question”. This can also prevent the veto of the permanent members from…
… being circumvented by redeclaring a factual issue to a procedural issue.
to ask??
wow this counteroffensice is really amazing
This is not a movie, Tom. There are still 4,5 months till November. Judging anything before it is over and without knowing what the plan was makes no sense at all. Especially since Ukraine has quite obviously not played anywhere close to it’s cards yet. It is very likely that we are still in the probing and shaping phase of the counteroffensive.
There was never a probing phase. This is the counteroffensive. You’re just surprised it’s so slow and want to believe success will come.
Ukraine was denied any modern jets or long range missiles, was given very few land vehicles, AD systems. This slowness is entirely the fault of the West, they’ve been intentionally minimizing deliveries, meanwhile Russia spent last 9 months digging, mining.
With less than that, they easily stop winter ru offensive and prepare their offensive.
Now they have occidental heavy armored vehicle, long range missiles and drone able to hit moscow. Soon they will have planes .
Its slow. Its normal. They have to capture strong point before to attack main defensiv lign.
They already have better results than russia this winter .
“Soon they will have planes” only in 2024. Miserable amount too.
Ukrainian offensive is not normal so far. The gains are minimal, only in lowland areas without fortifications, I don’t see any reason for optimism.
I predict a stalemate, the West will be more than happy to sign some peace deal and end it. Ukrainians can’t win the war with one hand tied behind their back.
2024, its soon. Maybe in 2023. Wait and see. This war will not end in 2023 or 2024.
Offensive just start with only a few of ukrain force engaged. Ru already had to use reserves.
Stop dreamings man. Ukrain take fortified high to make fall lowlands. Its what i call point. Its why its take time.
Ukraine didn’t take any highland fortified territory in the South yet. Progress is non existent.
Trump winning in 2024 elections is very likely, in that case aid will stop and Ukraine will be forced into a stalemate.
1) look a map (rybar ) and stop to insult russian . Of course they dig fortification on front lign. We have so many proof of this fortifications that i cant understand how you can negate that.
2) last hope of russia. But in 2024, were will be the frontline ? Russia will be weaker , ukrain stronger. Biden will secure the situation. congress and us administration will control trump .
And of course, ukrain just with support of europe can defend the lign against russia.
Tumpo will be on trial
What a bullshit – fault of the West. I guess that for Ukraine best would be if West would go and fight for their country. First they complain about tanks then planes and now missiles. There is always something and some excuse. Do Ukraine wants to win, then go and fight – show at least same determination as russians do.
Ukrainians show determination while defending their country, we have thousands of examples of heroic Ukrainian fighters.
Russians only show determination when committing war crimes.
Now, your loud mouth can rest. Forever.
Seriously ? its your level? its not two stupid alcoolics fighting in front of a night club to show who is stronger.
No, Ukrain will not apply strategy and tactic who lead Russia to the defeat. They will not sent all they have frontally on tokmak whithout prepare like russian in Vulhedar.
Why shouldn’t I complain? US prolongs the war on purpose. The aid provided to Ukraine to defend themselves has been miniscule. Where are F-16, ATACMS, Abrams? Do you want to see stalemate at current borders?
You can complain about the slowness of the USA and especially the atacm thing is beyond an explanation. The USA is obviously not interested in a quick ukrainian victory and may be not even a victory at all. That being said, the USA did sent 71 billion dollars of help in the first year and add in the Intel and the organization of western help. I would love to see more but this is no… Read more »
71 billions is exaggerated, most of that money went to arms industries, while Ukraine received cheap old scraps for less actual price.
It’s still a small amount. US spent trillions dollars on Afghanistan (with less inflation back then), yet lost to Taliban, won nothing.
If US is not interested in Ukraine victory, why even fight? Why not give up for some peace treaty? What’s the point?
Because the USA is more interested in managing escalation than in ukrainian lives and a freed oblast more or less. Because the USA wants Europe to take care of its shit and because the strategic defeat of Russia is happening and that’s the goal of the USA. Not a quick victory or every inch of Ukraine freed. That is the sad truth of it. Europe has to win this shit with Ukraine.
Let me please rephrase that: Ukraine has to win this with the help of Europe and we will have to drag the USA along as far as we can. The only states that are interested in freeing all of Ukraine are European. Letz do it! I still think it will happen, sooner, or probably and sadly later.
There’s no such thing as escalation. Putin is like a bully in elementary school, he won’t stop picking on you until you beat him up. This war started in the first place because Western leaders prior to 24.02 were complete cowards afraid of sending a single tank to Ukraine.
If no one wants Ukraine to win, why is Ukraine even fighting? For what?
No, i didn’t say no one. I said those that want Ukraine to win are mostly from Europe and rightly so. Ukraine fights for freedom and because they know they won’t get a better chance to free themselves from the Russian Empire. Zalushni said: we have no right to push this problem to the next generations. I think he is right. This is Ukraines chance.
And yet Ukraine didn’t achieve anything in counteroffensive so far (due to small aid). Fighting for years doesn’t sound like a good idea, the country would be destroyed, devastated regardless.
So far, the progress in terms of territory have been minimal, true. It doesn’t mean they have achieved nothing.
– Russian losses are very high, according to the Ukrainians
– they also hit Russian logistics very hard
– Ukrainians are learning from their mistakes.
There’s no proof of Russian losses being unsustainable for Russia. Their manpower is massive after mobilization, they keep recruiting hundreds thousands volunteers, prisoners, contract soldiers.
Russian equipment may be inferior to Ukrainian, but there’s a lot of it. Meanwhile Ukraine has few hundreds tanks and ifvs, no jets, is seriously disadvantaged in terms of shells. I can’t be optimistic.
Yes you start to understand . For russia its a vital war. They to all they can with putin corruption system.
For western country, its just a local war with an ex global power. We are not full implicate. But its already too many for russia
Okay then, Ukraine will be devastated demographically, 6 millions refugees (women and children) won’t come back in case of long/frozen war, Ukrainian birth rate is already 2nd worst in the world at about 0.8 children per woman. The nation is dying at the most rapid rate ever seen, already just 30 millions population, -500k naturally every year. But at least Russia slowly dies, wow that’s relief.
And you think that will get better if Ukraine stops fighting now? How shortsighted, this is Ukraines grant chance to become a free country and become part of the west. This is the way, probably the only way. If they don’t win now, Russia will come back and it won’t act this dumb again. This war will go on until Ukraine won, they have to take the chance we give them, sad but true.
Your leaders don’t give any chances. Russia was provided 9 months to mobilize, fortify, mine, while US/EU were doing god knows what. That’s why the offensive is stalling.
UKR cannot win the war. She fights for a better negotiating position.After the negotiations, Russia will not invade a second time either, because the UKR will get a security guarantee if it is in a better position.A good negotiating position is that RUS keeps Donbass and loses Crimea and the South in return, or Donbass becomes Ukrainian again, but Crimea remains Russian in return.
Donbass is useless, too much destroyed, but Crimea is intact and economically viable. The target of the UKR will therefore be the south and Crimea. Fighting in Donbass binds Russian forces. But the entire country will not get the UKR back, so you have to put up with that.
assuming that this prophecy of yours is fine, that will happen anyway, just either without Russia or with Russia additional input. Like you know: ethnic cleansing, destruction of language and culture, mass deportations and all that good stuff.
So… what’s your point exactly (besides concerned trolling)?
My point is the West deliberately makes Ukraine lose
But ukrain is winning. Just look a map.
I will start to believe Ukraine is winning once they liberate at least one relatively big city in the South. Polohy, Vasylivka, Volnovaha, for example. Until this happens, Ukraine is not winning.
Losing? Last time i checked Kiev, Odessa and Kharkiv were safe, the last major gains were ukrainian and their next offense just started. Tocall this losing is a very long stretch. But there are people in Washington that do not mind a stalemate it seems, i give you that and you are not allone with that view.
We should finally stop talking about winners and losers. This is not a football game or a competition in the schoolyard.
There are my winners and losers based on the two opponents. There are only winners outside of the conflict, after the conflict
Stalemate at current borders is a loss for Ukraine. I don’t know how you can call that a win.
I wouldn´t call it a loss nore a win. It doesn´t really matter either, none of my buisness. But current frontline and being part of the EU and NATO, i may call that a win. Germany used to be a lot bigger, who gives a damn about it today?
If Ukraine is secure and part of the EU, i would call that a win.
NATO won’t accept Ukraine unless they take back the entire territory. They made it pretty clear they’re not even gonna risk fighting Russia, thus Ukraine would be left alone.
Demanding demanding and again demanding, all over the same.
I don’t care. Ukraine will not win the war if US keep the current attitude.
Why are you against increased aid? How does this hurt you personally?
No one will win the war… It will take many years for Russia to reform its army, make its economy competitive without Western imports, and get the country out of isolation. Russia actually needs a regime change to become competitive again.Ukraine will take at least 10 years to heal the wounds and rebuild the country and remove the mines.
The winners will be all companies worldwide involved in the reconstruction.But the biggest losers of all will be the separatists, who in the end won nothing but lost everything and are left without a country and recognition.
Kreminal kuntz!
We can judge Ukraine once a big land battle is fought, if they are probing for weak spots they must’ve already found the weakest sector of Russian defences, it’s been 2 weeks almost, but if nothing happens in the next 2 weeks i seriously doubt Ukraine will make any gain, you don’t probe for 1 month.
I personally don’t have enough reliable information to assess the results and future prospects. On paper, the Ukrainians have captured 8 settlements and close to 200 sq. km in 2 weeks. Not bad at all. The question is at what price was this achieved and how long these relentless attacks can be sustained.
I wouldn’t judge them on what they achieved now at all, Max is right, they’re trying to find a weak spot, a lot of their troops haven’t been commited yet
I personally wouldn’t discard the possibility of a Kherson scenario, where Ukraine pushes Russia slowly with some bigger attacks but without a big battle until Russia has to fault because of logistical issues in autumn.
I think the goal in the south is to reach Melitopol from several sides and then conquer it. This gives Ukraine the main supply point for the Russians and an important communications hub. To the west, the Russians are then cut off from supplies and in Melitopol one can prepare for the conquest of the Crimea.
I dunno. From my master armchair-marshall position I’d keep tying as much of RuAF as possible and then try to thrust into Volnovakha, from there on the heights (hard terrain, risky, but high reward). Having positions there Ru’s Supply/LOC is dead in Zaporizhia. Do not need to push into Mariupol at once.
I’d also raid from Niu-York into East, because there is a cheat mode.
Nah… No idea, bro.
Lowlands that weren’t easily to be defended from the Russians? When they will start capturing higher lands that will give them control over russian areas we can discuss that. 200 sq m is 20 kilometres in all 3 areas of conflict after weeks. They are almost 10 km away from the first line of defence and have lost 20% of IFVs and don’t know how many tanks. And that’s just for they “security” zone.
20 percent of IFVs? Of what? Of one brigade, the 47th? Of those brigades on the frontline in the south? Of those not even fighting yet? Where do you have that number from? Oh come on…
Sorry, I ment Bradleys.
In principle I agree that Ukrainian successes so far have been limited and probably below expectations. But again – it’s been only going on for 15 day and 75%-80% of their manpower and military potential hasn’t been used. We need at least a month to understand the dynamics and how this may pan out.
And let me add that things can change very quickly. For example, look at how close the Ukrainians are to the fortified area west of Klishiivka. If they take it, Klishiivka is gone and it will not stop there.
No, i totally agree that it’s too soon to see how things will go. Ukraine has to improve however the air defence as there won’t be much luck without cover. For the moment Russia as far as I know hasn’t lost during the offensive more than 1-2 helicopters. So that means that they inflict damage without being in danger.
There are so few helicopters because the Russians don’t send many more to the front. The risk of being shot down is much too high.
By the way, there are over 90 helicopters that the Russians have lost
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
I’m just curious, is there a reason why they can’t make probing attacks for a month? Is there a deadline? I know the ground will get squishy in the fall, but that’s a long way off.
ofc there is; it’s called armchair general socmedia attention span.
If you don’t find a weak spot in 1 month you’ll hardly find it later, unless something changes
Like attriding your oponent logistically, until a weak spot shows up?
#armchairgeneral
wow this ruski mir is really amazing. You can really feel the “mir”
According to an interview with a German general from the Ukrainian situation center in Germany, the Ukrainian military leadership has imposed a strict blackout on information from the front. It is thus forbidden for the Ukrainian forces to publish pictures and information from the front.
get off the twitter, try getting some help. Short attention span is a serious issue.
great advice. I will tell this to rich ukrainians enjoying sun on south of Spain
Yeah, yeah, yeah kreminal kuntz.
Thanks Jerome. All other sources I know say that Novodonetske is still in rashists hands. What’s the real situation around that village?
yep Jerome, “War Mapper” still has it as Russian-held. https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1670297287749140492/photo/1