Invasion Day 476 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 14th June 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Vesele, Rozdolivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Yahidne, Berkhivka, Ivanivske, Bila Hora
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
Pjatihatki in Zaporizhzhia has been liberated. The Russians acknowledged the loss according to Rtvslo
Why I like what I see in the south: This is and will probably stay a war of attrition with hopefully some maneuver phases like Kharkiv or more likely attritional retreats like in Kherson.
The ukrainian startegy for this type of war is basically degrading the Russian military while relaying on western support. This is easy as long as Russia goes is on the offensive.
While Ukraine is in the offense, the weak link and the great advantage was targeting the Russian rear areas with western precision munitions. while Russia has a deep rear with great logistical capabilities, e.g. roads and rail in the east, the southern front is basically and long strip of land which western precision munitions can cover more or less completely and the logistics have to be
Brought in from the west and the east. If Ukraine can force the center of the fight to this frontline, which it does right now, it pulls Russia in a logistical trap. Now Russia even added a water problem. So if Ukraine keeps moving the fight to the south, it can play it’s advantages this summer and seek to exploit it in autumn. That would be my plan, and that’s how it looks like to… Read more »
Ukraine can’t win the war of attrition, they have very few western equipment and shells thanks to “amazing” US aid. Russians prepared multiple lines of strong fortifications with mine fields, don’t have a river damaging their logistics, this will be nothing like Kharkiv or Kherson. I see this as a future stalemate unless Western attitude changes.
They have a see damaging their logistic. And ukrain is on the way to cut the logistic on land bridge . In an area where russia didnt build multiple lign of strong fortifications.
Western support increase each month . And for us , its nothing. Russia only live on urss stock. What about when stock are empty?
Tic-tac
“Ukraine is on the way” it’s been 19 days of summer, AFU only advanced a little bit, not even noticeable on the map. Didn’t reach 1st line of fortifications anywhere.
Western support remains miserable, especially from the US compared to their capabilities. At the current pace of aid, the war will last for years, or will be ended in 2025 in Russia’s favour.
They cross the first lign in one day. How many days its take russia to cross first lign in Vulhedar?
Yes Western support is low. Its true. We are not escalating. But it was already suffisant to defeat Ru . Remember Kiev, Karkiv, Kherson battles? Remember to the dreams of odessa?
how can you dream that russia will do best with less against stronger ukrain?
Tic tac
The aid was sufficient to defeat RU in the past, it won’t be sufficient anymore, after Russia had 9 months to mobilize, dig, mine.
Whole escalation thing is a lie, there’s nowhere to escalate. Either you fully commit to victory, or accept a stalemate and sign some peace deal.
Ukraine didn’t cross any defensive lines, didn’t even reach one.
How probable is that the supposed strike on a UA “decision-making center” halted the offensive?
How probable that it just a russian lie ? Statistically, more than 99%.
I suppose that there is no small children in mentioned command centers, thus – these are particularly complicated targets, no babies, no autoaim.
Besides, even if they would kill e.g. Syrski again, NATO-biolabs would revive him, no problem, as they already did. Tested on Mario. /s
Offensive doesnt halt.
No summary today guys, there is nothing to report.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1669746591299764225.html
The UKR offensive seems to have significant problems with the many minefields. The Russians are escalating and are making occupied Ukraine an insurmountable obstacle
counteroffensive is over, looks like russians are not so weak as propaganda was saying.
First phase of counteroffensive is over. Analize situation, making plans to attac weakest spots, starting phase two (of 8 or 10).
A lot of troops and material were not activated till now.
I suppose we will see some surprising actions in the future. 🙂
In any case, you are so right. Actually, the UKR could now go completely to Russia. Because if you need more than 6 days to do it, you’ve lost anyway. The Russians are really smart, just wait a week, then the offensive failed.
Seriously, Tom? The Russians need almost a year to conquer a village. But to say after 6 days that UKR has failed… Go back to your troll factory.
Im not a troll at all.Dont get me wrong, I would love to see russia failing but looking at current situation I see a lot of propaganda from Ukraine, demand for money etc. oppoosite on ru side I see more motivation and will to die for victory. in couple months support from west will go down, then will be over
Stop saying nonsense.
1) it is way too early to know if the counteroffensive has failed or succeeded. Wait at least 1 or 2 month before judging it
2) The support form wester countries will go up (with F16 etc), not down. European nations made it clear that they won’t allow Russia to win, and this will not change in 3 months, or 3 years.
support is not enough to win. if there is not enough will as nation to fight. I know that there are some people which want to fight. but question is if whole nation as such has the will and if that will is more than russia will. so question is are men from Kiev ready to go and fight and die for donbas land? or most of them just wait for opportunity to go abroad… Read more »
The question is more from ru side. Putin is affraid to a second mobilistion. like he was affraid by the first one.
Ukrain have no problem of troops. only marerial.
Is he? If he starts loosing he will do another one. I dont doubt about that. Ukraine has no other choice as to mobilise more than russians. ruskies are affraid only about power. if they will see that ukrains are ready to sacrify alot they will pull back. for the moment they just see western equipment being burned as other.
if you are in such a tired doubt (I can understand), stop spiralling into despair. Instead do something you can feel is manageable and provides clear feedback, no matter how small. This war, in one way or another, will go on as long as Putin (and putinism) draws breath.
But how long can an already depopulated nation replenish said troops? Russia will always have cards on the table as long as they can partially mobilize and generate almost as much as there enemy can get from a full mobilization. Ukraine is better at Maneuver warfare but both sides admit its a war of attrition so who will be exhausted first RUssia used less then 5% of its GDP Ukraine 20% .
Ruskies can sacrify as much as needed, there is no limit for them. If they will pull back only if they will see strong resistance. unless Ukraine will not mobilise more men to show russia that they are ready to die for country ruskies will go forward, slowly but they have time and they dont care about single indivuduals.
Exactly the war of attrition is already decided so unless Ukraine can stoke political unrest in Russia its only a matter of time, hence the border raids.
Yes. They have no limits. Its why they are fighting with limited troops.
We dont talk about URSS. We talk about the russia of putin.
If the russia of putin really have no limits, we will not have this talk. With no limits , russia start the war with 1M. With no limit , russia first mobilisation was 1M . With no limits, russia will already have déclare a new massiv mobilisation.
The whole population argument is short sighted.
1) Neither is Ukraine depopulated, nore will it be. With 200k casualties a year it will still be able to fight for decades. That is a question of will, and if you read ukrainian press, there is no question about it now or in any foreseeable future.
2) The war of attrition is also one of economy and of course military kit. In both spheres Russia is absolutely no match versus the West. The costs are a joke for the west, something like may be 0,4 percent GDP and we haven’t even sent the whole kit, e.g. planes. So the real argument goes for the political will of the west. That is Ukraines real center of gravity.
Is press enough to make judgement? Is press really reliable? I doubt that. Imagine what would happen if Ukraine would make real mobilization like 2 milion men with gun. I am not talking about tanks flighst etc. But two milion men ready to fight on the border with gun. What putler would do in such case? He would propably shit his pents and move back. Why? Because people as nation want to fight.
2 million? That’s a great idea. Just try to calculate how much you need to spend to maintain 2 million soldiers. And also an economy that would lose workers. That’s why there will be no such mobilisation.
so what is more important? winning a war or ecenomy? russians are killing people day and night and we are talking about money. here is another point fo russiacst. they sacrify money and blood for winning the war. so who is on winner side.
… and then its over. Putler and especcially russians need to see that, then they would be scared, like they dont start with turkish. I am afraid that truth is different and most people dont care about donbas land and dont want to die for this.
It’s very depressing
But I wish to point out that although the situation is depressing, western support for Ukraine will not stop, no matter the Ruski propaganda – Ukraine has become a sort of Israel and the Russians are in for perpetual war for stealing foreign land
The whole war is depressing, indeed. But being depressed because of what is going on now, makes no sense. I read from exactly no one who calls himself a military analyst, that there’s a reason to be depressed. One actually wrote, that he is surprised by the success of the first probing attacks. If we would know Ukraine’s plans, we could judge. But we simply do not. I like would what I see
If it is more or less Ukraine’s plan. 5 km in 2 weeks would make about 50 till mud season starts… That would basically cut the land bridge logistically and that would be a strategic success while probably minimizing losses in this war of attrition.
This is the important part I don’t think gets enough attention. Ukraine realistically needs to make about 30-40 km of progress to put the entire southern coast of Ukraine in HIMARS range. Applying effective pressure here will more or less cut the Russian army into three separate regions: Crimea, south Ukraine, and the east/north. Harder to reinforce and respond to future UA counteroffensives.
I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the whole point of this counteroffensive now. Why bleed all the way to the coast when you can stop well short and blast away on rail lines, supply depots, and troop concentrations? Russia has no effective counter to HIMARS. The losses the Russians would take could be horrendous unless they evacuate the territory as they have done elsewhere.
I wish it were different, but I am sceptical with this. The problem is that the west does not only have to finance the Ukrainaian military, but also the whole country. A country with 30-40 million people and nearly zero GDP vs Israel a country of 8-10 million people with high GDP. At the moment the whole system of western institutions (IMF, WorldBank, EU, etc.) is taking loans so that the costs do
not occur in the budgets of the individual countries. But this can’t go on for ever. Sooner or later it will affect the debts of the individual countries, and then voters will loose enthusiasm.
Russia will be banckuped and defeated first. And the more weapons we give now, the sooner it will be over.
You overestimate western attention spans, support for ukraine is declining and if Ukraine cannot make any gain the west is gonna force Ukraine to settle for peace, Ukraine needs to succeed, let’s hope the jets will change the things, Russia shouldn’t own Pryazovia
I think all of you guys are underestimating the west, especially because of the constant Russian propaganda and the audacity of pro-Russian politicians (which can exist in the west because of freedom of speech). But the reality is that the societal core – from rural people to academia is willing to support Ukraine like Israel and we’ve been supporting Israel since WW2
The USA supports israel because it needs a reliable ally in the region, Ukraine can still be a great ally with 80% of its territory
Y
Exactly, the political will to support Ukraine is there indefinitely, especially in Europe. Northern and most of Eastern Europe wants to stop Russia in Ukraine for good and rightly so. The rest of Europe has no other chance but being dragged along. The weak link is the USA from 1.1.2025 on. I would argue that this will not matter much anymore.
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71391
It’s a lot of text to read, but very interesting. At the same time, it is extremely frightening and shocking what stupid, insane and crude stuff Putin says and goes through his head. Either it is calculated to create a deliberately false image of himself or he actually lives in a mentally disturbed dream world that is far removed from reality…
At the beginning of this meeting, he twists historical events in his favor in a manner riddled with lies. In the further course, Putin shows in an impressive way how uninhibitedly his commanders at the front and in the ministry lie and cheat on him and how he is totally convinced that what he is told is true…
One might think that his guests let him speak so freely and so much in order to indirectly show the world his irresponsibility. But in the end, everyone present is just fascist-nationalist assholes.
Really take the time to read everything… Of course, Putin himself is the real victim of the evil NATO, Europeans and Americans. When he’s alone, he’ll blame the dirt under his fingernails
Sounds interesting! Is there an English translation?
in Chrome browser right click and select Translate Text. In the settings you can set the language in which the translation should be done
Why are you not detailing UA advances? They arte open source at this point. OPSEC is not an issue.
if who have proof of any UA advance not yet on the map, feel free to share it with us.
because there is nothing to post, no advances
They were no advances during the last 48 hours.
Today, report of shelling near troitske.
Its the one south to new york? Deep in the russian lign? Or another ?
No units in the Sloboda and siverskij directions?
Looks like the Ruskies are throwing more in new attacks around Soledar area.
I dont read something special in this aera. What is your source.
The source is the update above from Jerome…this website. See the map?
Nothing spécial from this update. Maybe, its because you dont have an important information. Ru attack there everyday since months.