Invasion Day 474 – Summary
The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 12th June 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bilohorivka, Vesele
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian troops of 3rd Assault Brigade advanced and pushed Russian troops back across the canal south-west of Klishchiivka. This was rumored a while ago, but only now we have a visual confirmation. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Ivanivske, Bila Hora
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Avdiivka
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
- Soldiers of 35th Marine Brigade liberated Storozheve village. (source)
- 7th Battalion Arey of Ukrainian Volunteer Army liberated Neskuchne. (source)
- Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar announced the liberation of Makarivka settlement. (source)
- Tankers of 4th Tank Brigade assaulted Russian positions between Blahodatne and Novodonetske. (source)
- A day later, she also announced the liberation of Levadne village. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka, Blahodatne
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
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Mentioned Units |
No unit mentioned.
I think it’s time for a NATO intervention in Ukraine to finally kick Russia out
You may think that, but that does not make it more realistic. The only way for that to happen is, if Russia goes nuclear. I personally fear that a “incident” at the zaporizia npp won’t do it. I certainly think it should.
Yeah no i’m not dying for Ukraine, virtually no benefit from intervention unless you follow the burgundian ideology
Hi Jermoe, Forbes says the 33rd Mech was involved in the attacks on the meltipol axis, link below. Also, could you explain to me the battalion numbering in Ukraine? E.g. why is the 137th of the 35rd Marines alled like that? Greetings and thx for your work!
https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/06/14/borrowing-tactics-from-the-u-s-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/
The 25t Airmobile is supposed to have joint on the Berdiyansk axis. I think they were thought to get Chalengers potentially. Also a Brigade not in Jeromes list and supposed to be on the Kremina-Svatove line…
Also interessting that Ukraine lets the press into that bridgehead, OPSEC or do they want Russia to think that… 😉
Yeah, so the Forbes guy David Axe (who is cited by ukrainetoday.org) continue to based his articles on our tweets and website data without actually crediting us.
The 25th Brigade is in the database:https://militaryland.net/ukraine/air-assault-forces/25th-airborne-brigade/#The press was not allowed in, but individual journalists/bloggers who have been reporting officially from the front since the beginning of the war, with the permission of the ministry. These journalists write about campaigns that have already ended and the texts are released by the gov
why not? The numbering is either linear or historical. Historical numbering is a unit that was mostly incorporated into the brigade later. But before being transferred to the superior unit, this battalion had this non-linear number.Separate means that the battalion can operate independently of the parent brigade and has its own structures and companies
Since the beginning of the activation of Ukrainian actions, Oryx has released two summaries – on June 8 and 10 (they are usually updated 2-3 times a week).
Russian (https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1667635485605347331) losses in military equipment:
June 8 – 56 units.
June 10 – 32 units.
Total: 88
>>>
Ukrainian (https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1667635111691517955) losses in military equipment:
June 8 – 53 units.
June 10 – 30
Total: 83
The losses are almost 1 to 1 and this despite the fact that Ukraine has to advance
The thing about oryx is that they don’t have access to Russian videos and pictures, only a very limited amount of them, this comes from Russian soldiers not being allowed to carry phones with them, whereas Ukrainian soldiers are allowed.
Now this makes things very difficult, because oryx can’t be fully trusted now. what they have is correct but they can‘t fill in the whole picture of the story.
Ukraine has lost way more than what oryx can gather information about. It’s not their fault, they simply can’t get the necessary pictures, since there are none, because again the typical Russian soldier is not allowed to carry a phone and thus there is less evidence for destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, but there are 100% way more destroyed, abandoned, damaged vehicles on the Ukrainian side.
The 1:1 ratio tells me that Ukraine has lost more than what Russians have lost, when you take the picture issue into consideration. My assumption is about 2-3:1 more Ukrainian losses than Russian ones. I take that 2-3 from the fact that when every or half of every Ukrainian platoon can take a picture opposed to
The Russian 0-2 in ever platoon this would cause big difference in evidence gathering
Hey, YouRussian, Oryx is OSINT – they consider everything that is publicly available. If Russians publish any photo or video of Ukrainian losses, they will count them.
And Russians aren’t shy of showing every stuff they destroy. At the moment, it is in fact Ukrainians that are under strict OPSEC rules (preventing them from publishing photos/videos) – not Russians.
What sources do you have?, because I only read a dry ratio of 3:1. All the videos and materials with the image of BMP tanks that are thrown in by Russia are not really a reliable source. There were even refutations of certain photos that indicated that Russia was destroying:
a) Dummies of tanks, BMP
b) passed off its destroyed equipment as Ukrainian
>>>>>
Yes, Ukraine has losses, but they are not as critical as the Russian psychological operation gave out, they sucked the video with 1 column of Western equipment 50 times from all angles and announced the destruction of 30 dozen Leopards)
Russian sources are unreliable, and we cannot find better ones, so we rely only on confirmation of the ORYX loss. In fact, you can grow into whatever you want
Oryx has been analyzing war casualties for many years. Then and now they say that the publications do not represent the actual numbers, but the results of all available open source data. However, Oryx are the most experienced, accurate and reliable analysts in this area because they evaluate most accurately what is available. Only governments (conflict parties) have even more precise figures
So I went back to Jerome’s great post back in April about brigades for the upcoming offensive and I had a look at the deployment map. Of the 29 mentioned brigades, 12 seem to be deployed, 2 on other frontlines, the rest in the south. Actually in the fight seem to be the 47th Mech, which got blunted on the first hill in direction tokmak and the 37th marine supported by Azov and I think… Read more »
In direction berdyansk. The rest of the fighting is done by pre deployed brigades like the 68 Jager and the 38? Marine. The 47th, the 82nd and the 46th were marked as the tips of the spear by Jerome. The 82nd air assault is still hovering in the area and the 46th air mobile is unaccounted for plus another 17 undeployed brigades. So there is some more ahead… Happy to be corrected.
46 is in Kherson area. Along with the 38 marine and a couple other new brigades.
And correcting myself, asov is deployed in the tokmak direction and it’s the 35th marine brigade fighting as predeployed in berdyansk direction. The 38th marine is still undeployed.
I’m just reading this blog and comments. I’m a member of a NATO force and I was involved in training the Ukrainian soldiers. I would like to write a clarification.The Russian pictures with the destroyed Leo’s from the first days of the offensive are fake. The Leo have a self-extinguishing system that prevents them from burning out (as in the photos).
The tanks are not used in reconnaissance missions, where driving over an uncleared minefield. The purpose of these tanks is to support direct attacks and eliminate enemy forces on the move. Only the Leo can automatically target, track, and hit the 1st target while driving at full speed (any terrain) while acquiring the 2nd target at the same time.
Also, create a virtual battlefield with all existing enemies (exact position) on the monitor and use existing location data (radar, etc.) for permanent automatic targeting. Ukrainians know that such a tank is not suitable for reconnaissance and clearance. The device is used where it has its strengths and creates superiority
at full speed:
T90->Target manually acquired, constantly readjust the sight, the gunner has to compensate for bumps, 3-5 shots=1 target (1-2 minutes)
Leo->Target autom. captured, gun stays on target, knows next target before shot, 90% hit accuracy, 3-5 shots=3-4 targets (less 1 min.)
You do realize Russia have extensively fielded T-90M and T-72B3M on the battlefield in Ukraine and these are equipped with the upgraded “Kalina” fire control system that has automatic target tracker. It also has a new 2A46M-5 125-mm smoothbore gun, new Relikt ERA. The T-90M has been tested during the military exercise Zapad-2017.
as for now all indicators (from OSINT at least) seems to point out opposite.
There is no need to create false narratives. Hardware breaks, gets blown on the minefields, taken out by artillery, people makes mistakes and sh*t just happens. There is no magic tank (or any other machine) impervious for bad luck or bad decision. If you would actually serve some time in an actual army, you’d know that.
I didn’t write that Leo can do everything. I just listed the advantages over the T90. It’s just a fact that the T90 doesn’t have those qualities.If the photos are indeed real, then the leo was used incorrectly. If all are destroyed, then so be it. This is war, but then the Ukraine will have to live with the fact that the material was negligently jeopardized.
I think it is useful to identify problems, so that they can be corrected. It appears that the 47th Mech Brigade attempted a mine breach, failed, and lost Leopard 2A6s, 2Rs and M2 Bradleys. Hopefully Ukrainian command is addressing this situation.
It’s a long war.
‘as an officer you make the decision and the you have hope that it was the right one’ (or at least: not the worst one).
That was one of the 1st combat actions for this units. Sh*t happens.
And – regarding the western machinery: you get 152 on roof, 60mm mortar on the engine block or grad rocked in 5m range and your adventure was suddenly abrupted in ‘lifechanging event’ ((c) Chieftain).
and no, there is no magic wand to recognise the minefield if the opposing force has an ability of remote mining. You can only guess. They have run into minefield (antipersonnel judging by lack of serious damage initially) and then got under fire (drone spotting). This is called by euphemism: “they have got really bad day”.
Contrary to the recommendation, PZH2000 were overused and were unusable too early. Making these devices available to Ukraine is politics, not my problem. But after successful training, it is negligent to lose these tanks in this way. Unfortunately you have to say that. As they say, nothing is indestructible, so use it to your advantage.
Let’s wait and see how it goes later in the network when all NATO equipment is used together. Theoretically, technically (in terms of material) Russia cannot oppose anything. Because every tank and vehicle has its own advantages.
Why still focus on this small event?
And with false informations. Of course tanks can be use in reconnaissance. Its something basic. Why lie about this?
Its war, the plan perish when the battle start. Lots of possibility could put a tank in a minefield.
Ukrain win the battle we are talking. May be they are not so bad?
Probably because it was chewed over ad nauseam by the Western media and doubts about the Ukrainian success arose on the basis of these pictures. The failure of this one campaign was reported more than the successes at the same time on other fronts. Even the ISW felt compelled to explain to Western readers and media how a counteroffensive works and how to interpret such losses correctly.
Why bring out the good china plates when you can also use normal old plates for it?The many months was used for such missions, old Ukrainian MBT and APC. A failure could not be ruled out due to the experience. It would actually have been better if you had trusted the good old plates…
Check this https://t.me/infantmilitario/100501
Not the ones donated to Ukraine it seems
Nice work as always, Jerome! A little suggestion to the maps: what about, when Ukraine recapture X zone, you leave a light-blue mark to show us how much land was recaptured to the previous map? I don’t know if it is a good explanation, but it is exactly this: change the light-red (Russia mark) to light-blue (Ukraine mark) whenever an advance was made.
Thanks!