The summary of the situation of Russian re-invasion to Ukraine covering the last 48 hours, as of 25th May 2023 – 22:00 (Kyiv time).
I’m pleased to introduce you new maps. They are, just like the previous ones, handcrafted from OSM data to best suit our needs.
Sloboda Front
includes the area of between Oskil and Aydar river
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Masyutivka
Siverskyi Donets
overview map of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut and Lysychansk vicinity
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Bilohorivka
Bakhmut Front
includes the vicinity of Bakhmut
- Ukrainian and Wagner mercenaries swapped prisoners just south of Khromove settlement. (source)
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Ivanivske
Bakhmut City
the city of Bakhmut
- The leader of Wagner mercenaries claims his mercenaries has begun to withdraw from Bakhmut.
Avdiivka Front
includes the vicinity of Avdiivka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Novokalynove, Avdiivka
Donetsk Front
includes the center and southern part of Donetsk Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- Marinka
Zaporizhzhia Front
includes the Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Kherson Front
includes the left bank of Dnipro river south of Kherson and Kakhovka
Ukrainian General Staff reports repelled attacks in the vicinity of:
- No activity reported.
Map Legend
Full map of Ukraine
overview map of current situation in Ukraine
This summary and detailed maps are based on the following sources:
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official media channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and geolocated footage.
We also thank the following Twitter users for their geolocations and amazing work: @neonhandrail, @auditor_ya and the team at @geoconfirmed.
US estimates put the number of Russians killed at 20,000 from Dec to April (i.e. 5 months). https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-believes-russians-ukraine-have-suffered-100000-casualties-5-months-2023-05-01/
if 5 months = 20,000 deaths, then 15 months (i.e. now) = 60,000 deaths.
That’s very rough but credible in my view.
Alas, the US prefers not to provide estimates about Ukrainian fatalities.
US estimates are very conservative.
And the pentagon leaks gave their estimate for Ukraine= 16-17k KIA. (end of February)
Currently, a rough estimate would be:
Russia = around 130 000 KIA
Ukraine = around 60 000 KIA
In Nov. General Milley said Russia and Ukraine had about 100,000 casualties each. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63580372
He has all the intel. needed for an accurate assessment. I imagine proportions haven’t changed much.
The intel he has were leaked (end of february):
Even if Ukraine has a higher WIA/KIA ratio (due to better medical evacuation), the casualties are not even. It’s at least 2:1, maybe 3:1 in Ukraine’s favor.
Oryx also shows a 3:1 ratio in favor of Ukraine (heavy equipment losses).
How could he say 100,000 each if the ratio was actually 3 to 1? Why would he purposefully overestimate Ukrainian casualties? It doesn’t make sense. My take on this is that the alleged leaks are unreliable.
A written report and a serious OSINT site that records ~14k visual proofs are way more reliable than one sentence taken out one oral answer of a general.
Milley maybe just couldn’t remember the exact number. Or maybe he included the civilian casualites as well (from 8k to 41k dead civilians, according to the leaks) in which case yes, the casualties could be roughly the same.
Milley is not “a” general, he is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-ranking US military officer and the principal military advisor to the President, Secretary of Defense, and National Security Council. He knows what he is talking about and certainly didn’t mix military with civilian casualties.
And he is consistent. In late January he said: “I would tell you that the Russian casualties, the last time I reported out publicly [in November] I said it was well over 100,000. I would say it’s significantly well over 100,000 now.” He did not say anything about Ukrainian military casualties but they increased too.
You like to cherry-pick one number. I like to look at the whole picture. I gave you the US estimate fo both sides, and also a rough estimate that is more in line with the data we have.
Now, if you prefer believing in a fantasy, that’s your problem, not mine. Have a nice day.
I am quoting Milley – the highest US military official – and you call this “believing in a fantasy”. That’s really beyond me. Good day.
I read Milley statements as well. He is the only one in US that has 2 feet on the ground. But I thing in is nobody will tell you the Ukrainian casualties. But once the war finish I think as most experts predict, for every Russian 5 to 7 Ukranians dead. Now I don’t think Ukraine will exist after the conflict is done. They will collapse even if Russia doesn’t conquer whole of Ukraine.
I think that when you attack inside a heavily fortified city that the enemy defends with all the might he has is different to attacking trenches. We have seen videos of such operations and the losses are just a few men. Russia had Mariupol and Bakhmut and Bakhmut siege lasted for longer than Mariupol. So if had in Bakhmut 20.000 then less in Mariupol and evel lesser at the rural Ukraine.
Very nice new maps Jerome! And thanks for all the good and useful work you are doing!
Interesting how Europe is taking the lead. Tanks: from Europe and the US got dragged along for marginal addition. Cruise missiles: From Europe. F16S: From Europe. Feels like the USA took over the drag along job from Germany.
Jerome, much nicer looking maps. Question to all: Why is Bilohorivka so hard for the Russians to take? It’s been holding out for months.
The Ukrainian positions near Bilohorivka are anchored on dominating heights that are exceedingly difficult to approach.
Hey Jerome, Love the new site! well done! However, why is bakhmut still shown as contested?
Hi,
because Ukrainian forces still control small part in the south-western part of Bakhmut.
25th May not 25th April (first sentence)
1) So, where is the next counteroffensive phase as defined by the new brigades with western gear attacking?
I think that Ukraine is assessing that it currently wins the war of attrition. That is especially because Russia is not at full mobilization while Ukraine’s longer range munitions seem to do the job and there is still western gear arriving. Meanwhile Russia will be able to replenish armored
Vehicles and stockpile munitions as long as it really stops throwing it all away and if it can do it quicker than ukrainian precision strikes destroy it. If Russia does not start the grand mobilization, I wouldn’t be surprised if it will take a long time till the next counteroffensive phase starts.
I think they will have to go on the offense soon (I’d say less than 2 months) because they need a good weather to go on the offensive and must already calculate what they can do before next winter.
And even if they may be winning the war of attrition, it’s not Ukraine’s interest to have a long war. The quicker they get Russians out of the country, the better it is for everybody.
Well, it is also a question of munitions stockpile, but still, as long as Russia isn’t in full mobilization mode waiting may be the quicker path to victory. It is very likely that Russia will answer substantial ground losses with further mobilization. So you better be ready… And then there is the political component. November is 5 months away…
What’s happening in November?
started winter and bad weather
However, Russia is slowly running out of people for a partial mobilization. This means that Putin will have to declare martial law at some point in order to carry out a full mobilization.
But that also means that he will have to draw on the working population that currently keeps the economy and society running. And, of course, the relatives of the elite. With both groups of people, the risk…
… of discontent and revolt is too high, and he would certainly not survive politically.
The maps, the new website, the cover art for each summary, Jerome are you some kind of designer in real life? Feels like you know too much about designing good looking stuff
For those who are interested, my analysis of the battle of Bakhmut, including a rough estimate of the losses (both sides).
Nice! An english Variant may be in the forum would be even nicer! 🙂
Btw, the battle of bakhmut is not necessarily over. It sure looks like it will stay on the frontline and who knows in which hands it will be at the end of the year.
I agree. The battle is not over.
But the town is taken, and Russians say it is a great victory, so I wanted to talk about it and analyze the cost they had to pay for that victory.
Nice analysis… But my criticism is that war is not a statistic and cannot be analyzed using mathematical formulas. In theory, your conclusion is correct, but the most important factor is not included. The actual number of troops (only the government knows) and the people involved in the respective attacks, based on the area and number of active battles carried out.
Thanks. However, I respectfully disagree with you. I think that war can be alanyzed using statistics, and it’s even one of the best way to do so. For example, the analysis of production numbers between USA and Japan during WW2 shows that Japan never stood a chance. From 1943, USA were producing more ships and planes that Japan could even hope to destroy.
I like the new, bigger maps, but i noticed there are less settlements mapped on the Sloboda and Siverskyi Donets Map.
Wagner actually seems to be leaving Bachmuth, as today’s pictures show. Let’s see if and how long the regular Russian troops can hold out this zombie hell. Both sides have certainly understood that this debris field no longer has any strategic use. No electricity, no water, no roads, no defenses, nowhere to park troops.
In all honesty: The map change is a bit sad for me. Because – if I read the comments correctly – the maps seems to be in a much higher quality now and this means for me, that my (old) smartphone is not able to show them anymore. Every picture – be it the title one or the maps – is just „white“ and can not be loaded on my screen. I understand the change,… Read more »
New maps are great, yep, but my old iPhone 4 is too refusing to load website, sad…
Hello,
the maps are now in webp format, which isn’t supported by some older devices. If more people face the same issue, then we can revert to jpg.
There are ways to use webp while providing a fallback to older formats like JPG or PNG. Some of them are discussed here: https://css-tricks.com/using-webp-images/
The only thing that would make the maps even better would be the zoom feature from the old maps, if it’s possible.
How do we access prior/archived posts post-update?
And I do wish the map key were more accessible…
Agree the new maps look awesome, like they were in standard Def before and are now HD.
Thumbs up on the new maps!! Thanks Jerome
What about “liberation” of Bielgorod?
I like the new maps. They seem, well, cleaner, more readable.