Frontline Situation Report – October 2024
Summary of the situation on the battlefield and the recap of the previous month.
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Overall SITREP:
Russian forces continued their counterattack in Kursk oblast, resulting in the loss of Ukrainian positions near Koronevo, but then quickly ran into Ukrainian lines near Zelenyi Shylakh halting their progress. Ukraine still holds Sudzha and the surrounding areas, equating to around 650 square km in Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces advanced rapidly northwestwards from Vuhledar capturing Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka and Shakhtarske. It is likely the Russian goal is to continue north and force a Ukrainian withdrawal from Kurakhove and surrounding areas.
Russian forces appear stalled in the Pokrovsk direction, but managed to capture Selydove as well as surrounding settlements. The area west of Nevelske was withdrawn from, and Russian forces raised their flag over Hirnyk and Kurakhivka.
In the Toretsk direction, urban fighting continues with Ukrainian forces managing a limited counterattack to retake a small area
On the Kharkiv and Luhansk front, Russian forces continued their assault west of Pischane and reached the Oskil, capturing Kruhlyakivka. Towards Torske, Russian forces captured Novosadove and entered Terny. Summary of the situation on the battlefield and the recap of the previous month.
Kursk axis
- Around 10th October, Russian forces launched a counterattack from the Koronevo direction, reaching Zelenyi Shylakh before being halted. Ukrainian forces chaotically retreated from Olgovka, and the northern parts of Kursk. Russia’s next step was an assault eastwards Viktorovka around 18th October, resulting in some close ranged mechanized battles and Russian forces suffering substantial casualties. A small Ukrainian counterattack a few days later recaptured the area up to Novoivanovka.
- The eastern Kursk front is slightly more stable, where Russian forces assaulted near Cherkasskoe Konopelka and Plekhovo in mid October but were unable to achieve a breakthrough.
- Ukrainian forces control approximately 650 sq km in Kursk oblast now.
Kharkiv axis
- On 7th October, Russia published a flag waving over the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant again, though it is unknown who currently holds it.
Kupyansk axis
- Russian forces advanced west of Pischane and widened their salient, reaching the Oskil river at Kruhlyakivka (opposite Senkove) with mechanized forces by October 18th and entering Kolisnykivka. Ukrainian forces had been seen clearing the settlement of troops before October 18th, but geolocations now confirm it is in Russian hands.
Lyman axis
- A Russian flag was placed in Pershotravneve west of Svatove, showing an advance west of Raihorodka.
- Ukrainian forces performed a small counterattack in Nevske, retaking some of the village, but Russian forces advanced to the south instead, capturing Novosadove and raising a flag on October 24th, and then entering Terny from the north.
- At the same time, numerous mechanized attacks from the Kreminna direction assaulted towards Torske and Terny, but met with stiff resistance, resulting in heavy Russian casualties.
Siversk axis
- Russian recon forces snuck into Hryhorivka via a dinghy across the river and raised a flag on October 8th, but it was quickly removed. Likewise, a Russian drone seemingly dropped a flag in west Verkhn’okam’yans’ke around the same time, but no control actually changed hands. Russian mechanized forces advanced westwards to the north of Verkhn’okam’yans’ke before being stopped, and Ukrainian forces captured the vehicles, shown on October 16th.
- Numerous Russian attacks west of Zolotarivka and Verkhn’okam’yanka were repelled during October with very little change in control.
Bakhmut axis
- A Russian flag raise south of Chasiv Yar on October 17th by Russian Akhmat forces showed a significant hole in the Ukrainian lines west of Ivanivske, which seems to have been plugged by October 31st. Advances west of Kalinina and near Chasiv Yar across the canal have been kept to a minimum by the defenders.
Toretsk axis
- Heavy fighting continues in Toretsk. Russian forces advanced further into Toretsk itself until Ukraine conducted a limited counterattack around the middle of October, halting the Russian advance and pushing the Russian infantry back slightly.
- On October 8th, Russian forces were sighted in south Toretsk, but by October 23rd, Ukrainian forces appeared to have repelled them and retaken positions.
- Towards Niu-York, Russian forces attempted to advance north of Nelipivka, reaching Leonidivka with one assault around October 18th, however Ukrainian forces repelled the initial assaults and retook some positions, resulting in their offensive stalling.
Pokrovsk axis
- Russian forces assaults towards Pokrovsk stalled slightly, and a limited Ukrainian action near Novohrodivka mine took place, with geolocations seen around 17th October 2024.
- Russian force assaulted towards Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, but as of October 31st had not secured a foothold.
- In the Selydove area, Russian forces took a short pause near Mykhailivka to the east, but battles resumed around 14th October with large assaults on the northeast section of Selydove. Meanwhile to the south, Ukrainian units abandoned Tsukuryne and the railway crossing, and Russia advanced into Selydove from the south. The defence of Selydove quickly crumbled on October 23rd when Russian forces entered in force from the south and raised a flag almost unopposed in the central apartments, resulting in a chaotic retreat of Ukrainian forces who were defending the north east. By 26th October, Russian forces had raised their flag over all but the west of the settlement, and by the 27th had raised it in Vyshneve.
- The inability to hold positions near Tsukuryne and the withdrawals of Ukrainian forces from the Nevelske pocket resulted in Russian flag raises in Bazhane Pershe on 8th October, and in Izmailivka on 23rd October, cutting off supply routes from Hirnyk and Kurakhivka from the west. On October 26th, the Russian flag flew over north Hirnyk and then by the 30th was shown in Kurakhivka.
Novopavlivka axis
- Many large mechanized attacks were seen on this axis during October yet again, resulting in many positions falling to Russian control but also substantial Russian mechanized losses, especially around Kostyantynivka and Maksymilyanivka
- Numerous large Russian mechanized attacks west of Marinka into Maksymilyanivka resulted in a Russian flag raise on 17th October, though for heavy casualties once again. Mechanized attacks continued westwards towards Kurakhove, but were beaten back each time.
- Russian forces assaulted west of Kostyantynivka into Antonivka and Katerynivka, raising a flag in Katerynivka by 28th October.
- The capture of Vuhledar at the end of September and subsequent rotation of forces led to further Russian assaults which achieved substantial success with ~10 km advances, reaching Bohoyavlenka by 27th October and raising their flags across the settlement. Further to the west, more mechanized columns attacked from Zolota Nyva and Prechystivka and reached Novoukrainka and Shakhtarske with limited resistance, leading to infantry being sighted in Shakhtarske by October 28th and a flag raise in Novoukrainka by October 30th. A further advance into Yasna Polyana was also seen.
- The situation in this area remains extremely precarious as Ukrainian forces are on the back foot.
Velyka Novosilka axis
- No significant changes in this area.
Kherson axis
- No significant changes in this area.
Situation per region
Russian invasion forces currently occupy the following regions of Ukraine:
Crimea is occupied by 100% and is not listed.
Overall situation in Ukraine
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Mentioned Units |
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A new record advance for the Russians in October: + 532 km²