December 9, 2024

Frontline Situation Report – November 2024

Summary of the situation on the battlefield and the recap of the previous month.

Overall SITREP:

Long range missiles strikes, including ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes were authorized into Russian territory as of November 17th 2024.

Russian forces continued their attacks in Kursk oblast, attacking in force from the 7th November onwards, however this time Ukrainian forces appeared ready for them, resulting in heavy mechanized losses from the Russian VDV and Marines with only small areas recaptured by the Russian forces.

The enemy advanced rapidly from Zolota Nyva to the east of Velyka Novosilka, as well as continuing last month’s advance northwards towards after the capture of the settlements northwest of Vuhledar.

Russian troops appear stalled in the Pokrovsk direction, but have continued to advance slowly west of Selydove, pushing up the railway line to Zhovte. After the fall of Hirnyk last month, Russian forces have continued their westward advances, reaching Berestky north of Kurakhove.

In the Toretsk direction, the small Ukrainian counterattack last month has been reversed, with Russian forces capturing most of the Zabalka district, and advancing further into the city.

On the Kharkiv and Luhansk front, Russian forces crossed the Oskil north of Kupiansk near Divorichna in a small number which were repelled by early December, and have continued their assaults near Kruhlyakivka. Terny remains contested.

Kursk axis

  • Around November 7th, Russian forces launched a fierce attack near Zelenyi Shylakh and Darino, resulting in Darino being lost to Russian forces, but substantial mechanized losses to the Russian forces in the area.
  • In the southeast, Ukrainian forces withdrew over the Psel river, allowing Russian forces to retake Plekhovo.
  • Ukrainian forces control about 550 square km in Kursk oblast as of the end of November.

Kharkiv axis

  • On 19th November, Ukrainian forces advanced southeast of Hlyboke, retaking some woodland positions.

Kupyansk axis

  • Russian forces advanced towards the center of Kupiansk in a surprise move on the 19th November 2024, but were quickly repelled. The Russian held area near Kolisnykivka and Kruhlyakivka on the Oskil was widened slightly, but no significant changes were reported.
  • Russian recon forces did cross the Oskil further north however, north and south of Dvorichna, however the positions were returned by early December.

Lyman axis

  • Russian forces raised their flag in Kopanky south of Pershotravneve on 22nd November, as well as advanced slightly west of Stelmakhivka. Terny remains contested, with Russian forces continuing their attempts to reach Torske and Zarichne.

Siversk axis

  • On 2nd November, Russian forces launched a large mechanized attacked towards Ivano-Darivka and Vyimka, which captured some positions but was mostly repelled. Continued Russian efforts west of Verkhnokamyanske are meeting with failure.

Bakhmut axis

  • Geolocations from 16th November show Russian forces reaching the central part of Chasiv Yar as holes in the Ukrainian defense become apparent. It appears Ukraine has withdrawn from the eastern side of the canal, and Russian forces continue to pressure the west side with small groups

Toretsk axis

  • Heavy fighting continues in Toretsk. Russian forces went on the offensive again after the limited Ukrainian counterattack last month, resulting in most of the Zabalka district to the south falling to Russian control. Ukrainian forces were unable to contain the Russian forces in the center, and more positions were lost, resulting in Ukraine now controlling less than 50% of the town.

Pokrovsk axis

  • Russian forces assaults directly towards Pokrovsk remain stalled, and very limited Ukrainian counterattacks near Mykolaivka took place, returning some positions.
  • Meanwhile, west of Selydove the Russian advances continue with Ukrainian forces being unable to muster a defense. By 7th November, Russian forces had raised their flag in Novooleksiivka, and then, learning from the previous times they used the railways to advance, Russian forces advanced up the railway line northwest of Selydove to Hryhorivka (flag raise on 17th November), Petrivka (26th November) and then into Zhovte by 29th November.
  • West of Hirnyk, Russian forces continued their advance again as Ukrainian forces withdrew from the pocket, raising their flag in Vovchenka by 5th November, in Novosolydivka on 11th November, Illinka by 13th November and west Berestky by 27th November.

Novopavlivka axis

  • Kurakhove was entered from the east by Russian forces on the 15th November, with the road bridge being blown a few days earlier to prevent further advancement. However, Kurakhove was again entered by Russian forces from the Dalnje direction to the south on 25th November before being repelled. With the settlements fallen on the north side of the reservoir, Kurakhove is not in a good position.
  • With the large Russian advances seen in October, the Ukrainian forces south of Dalnje and north of Bohoyavlenka were left in a poor situation. Despite this, the fighting retreat has slowed the Russian forces down drastically in the area, resulting in Illinka only falling towards the end of November, and areas such as Trudove just to the north of Bohoyavlenka still contested.
  • Russian forces also advanced northwards from Novoukrainka, raising the flag in Maksymivka by 2nd November.

Velyka Novosilka axis

  • On 23rd November the Ukrainian defence failed as Russian mechanized forces advanced 9 kilometers from Zolota Nyva to to the eastern entrance to Velyka Novosilka, capturing large swathes of land. Russian forces also advanced northwards into Rozdol’ne by 29th November, and then were said to have crossed the road and attacked Novyi Komar too, putting Velyka Novosilka in dire straits with the only supply coming from the west.
  • To the west of Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces advanced into Rivnopil and raised their flag by 19th November, and also into Novodarivka.

Kherson axis

  • No significant changes in this area.

Situation per region

Russian invasion forces currently occupy the following regions of Ukraine:

Donetsk Oblast64.99% (+1.72)
Kharkiv Oblast3.02% (+0.02)
Kherson Oblast72.28% (+0)
Luhansk Oblast98.77% (+0.09)
Mykolaiv Oblast0.51% (+0)
Zaporizhzhia Oblast72.61% (+0.12)

Crimea is occupied by 100% and is not listed.

Overall situation in Ukraine

Ukraine17.56% (+0.08)

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