Summary of the situation on the battlefield and the recap of the previous month.
Overall SITREP:
Ukrainian forces remained on defense in March. The most problematic situation was in the vicinity of Avdiivka and Bakhmut, where Russians had made gains. These advances came at considerable high losses of manpower and equipment of the invasion forces. Ukrainian defenders, where the situation and terrain allowed, withdrew to better positions to preserve the lives of soldiers. Ukrainian Army, unlike the Russian one, cannot afford to fight in unfavorable terrain and ignore the losses.
Despite the Russian advances, the situation isn’t as bad as some try to present it. The loss ratio is in favor of Ukrainian defenders, battles are fought for small settlements which most of the public audience never heard of, and the Ukrainian Army is able to expand and keep all major units combat capable.
Avdiivka axis
- Russian troops reached Berdychi and captured about the half of the settlement.
- Russian forces entered Orlivka at the beginning of March and managed to capture the settlement on March 25.
- The enemy entered Tonenke settlement and raised its flag there. The capture of Tonenke was confirmed on March 9.
- Russian troops made gains in Pervomaiske and advanced towards the center.
- The invasion forces reached the southern edge of Nevelske.
Bakhmut axis
- Russian troops reached the highway in Ivanivske and captured at least half of the settlement.
- Russian VDV forces advanced towards Chasiv Yar from the north-eastern and south-eastern direction.
Lyman axis
- Russian invasion forces used the terrain to its advantage and advanced towards Terny.
Novopavlivka axis
- Russian troops made minor advances towards Heorhiivka.
- The enemy made progress in Novomykhailivka settlement and reached the town’s center. They also managed to advance on southern and northern flanks. Ukrainian defenders continue to hold the western part of the settlement.
Orikhiv axis
- Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces out of the vicinity of Verbove and also made gains east of Robotyne.
Kherson axis
- Ukrainian marines continue to hold a small portion of Krynky settlement.
Situation per region
Russian invasion forces currently occupy following regions of Ukraine:
Overall situation in Ukraine
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I’ll just add that Russia gained 40,3 km2 in March.
This is awesome! Not their advances obviously but your reports. Will you only do these monthly? Or weekly? Daily seems a bit waste of time if there’s not much going on anyway, like you did before. I think weekly will be the sweet spot if you have time.
Also, anyone here knows what the capture of Avdiivka means? Will the Russians push ahead or have they become bogged down now at Tonenke, Berdych?
The plan is monthly.
Not bogged down, still advancing. I expect a few more settlements will fall soon, including Berdychi, Semenivka, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka and Ivanivske.
But where are they heading, or what will their next offensive be? To Pokrovsk? Wouldn’t it make more sense to go to New York and Toretsk and then Konstaninivka?
Either way, these advances are still incredibly slow compared to the beginning of 2022. Elon Musk tweeted about Dnipro recently, I don’t see that happening any time soon. I could be wrong though.
Since when is Musk an expert on military matters? He is a greedy tech billionaire with far too much social media reach. People should be more critical about him and not view him has some type of genius.
I agree. It was just something I added at the end, but I was more curious about Russia’s next move. I remember the Syrian Civil War sub on reddit when there was purely military and tactical discussion. The subreddits now are either filled with Russian or Nafo bots and dumb memes. I wish there was a place where at least someone with military background can go in details, for example
What Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive meant for Ukraine and Russia. What could they exploit and so on. Similarly to now, what does the fall of Avdiivka mean, and how does it make the frontline more vulnerable for Ukraine. The closest has been Militaryland or Willy, but I’m getting sick of his clickbait titles.
Yeah, Willy and his clickbait titles, i just try not to read them, and watch the video regardless of the the title.
Well if you understand german, there is the podcast “Was tun, Herr General?” (General, what to do?) with former NATO-General Erhard Bühler.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkw0o9xT5j4&list=PLySs4Z7GBpI0gylkG6fkTQQ0w2m01yMMr&index=151
There is also the youtube channel Military and History with Torsten Heinrich, he does a situation report in english every Wednesday and Friday and talks about particular subjects in extra videos. He is pro-ukrainian but does his best to be neutral and levelheaded.
https://www.youtube.com/@militaryandhistory
Clearly, nobody knows where the Russians will attack and whether they will launch a large-scale offensive at some stage. Keeping your enemy guessing is not a bad thing and the Russians are pretty good at it.
Sure I agree, but so far, I haven’t seen anyone talk about the consequences for Ukraine of losing Avdiivka, which had been fortified for a pretty long time and fell quicker than what was predicted, according to some, especially after their offensive started in November.
Kharkiv?
Going after Kharkiv in 2024 would be a super costly distraction possibly ending in failure. If I were in charge, I’d continue the slow advance to capture as much territory as possible east of a Kupiansk-Izium-Zaporozhie line.
My understanding is that this is essentially WW1 on steroids (with drones and jets). The Russians are not ‘heading’ anywhere at the moment, but merely applying the pressure to make the life harder for the Ukrainians. The front is deadlocked, we’ll see big arrows on the map only when/if one of the sides is about to collapse (and we – mere mortals – won’t have a clue until it starts)
I have seen similar comments before, and to my understanding this is correct. But how did Russia make their big moves at the beginning of the war?
Even if their Kyiv offensive was a complete fiasco, they still managed to take over two major cities, Kherson and Mariupol and big chunks of land that was then later on somewhat recovered by the Ukrainians. And they have a land bridge to Crimea now.
In my opinion, the plan of the RU aimed to disperse the forces of the UAF across a large territory, while delivering the main strike, akin to NATO’s style (a semi-police operation), on Kyiv. The objective was to compel Kyiv to sign the necessary agreements.
However, Kyiv did not scatter its forces to defend the entire territory but concentrated them in the capital (was the plan known in advance by intelligence?). The defense for the UAF in the south consisted of positions fortified as early as in 2015 and natural barriers (mainly rivers). Additionally, the depth of penetration was limited by fuel reserves
This explains the whole secret behind such a significant “success” for the RF in 2022
August 1914, Schlieffen plan – German attack was steamrolling, but after some time it bogged down – more or less – to a trench warfare on the Western front. The analogy isn’t perfect of course, today it’s way more complicated and neither West nor Russia are committing 100%.
As to Kiev offensive, it’s hard to say what was the Russia’s plan, there are only talking heads and propaganda from both sides atm. We’ll learn about it one day. Maybe. Apparently fiasco came from the strategic intelligence, not the military per se.
Traiters among the population helped.
Kyiv, Mariupol and Kharkiv must have been as fortified as Avdiivka or Bakhmut, or am I mistaken? They still got to the vicinity of the capital after all.
Jerome can you please remove the comment limits?
As expected, Pervomaiskoe is under RU control: https://t.me/RVvoenkor/65692
There was a nice feature of magnifying glass when you are looking at maps.
it would be really nice if somebody returned it back
Good to have these summaries back! Keep ’em coming!
Thank you for this summary. In the “situation per region”, there is also Crimea (100% occupied).
Why write about what has remained unchanged for the past 10 years when there are no apparent reasons for changes?
Because the graphics are introduced by the sentence “Russian invasion forces currently occupy following regions of Ukraine:”, and Crimea is one of those regions.