День вторгнення 364 - Підсумок
Підсумковий огляд ситуації з російським вторгненням в Україну за останні 48 годин, станом на 22 лютого 2023 року - 22:00 (за київським часом).
Слобідський фронт
включає територію між річками Оскіл та Айдар
- Український Генеральний штаб повідомив про відбиту російську атаку в районі Куземівки, що свідчить про просування українських військ до цього населеного пункту.
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Гряниківка, Масютівка, Куземівка
Сіверський Донець
оглядова карта околиць Слов'янська, Краматорська, Бахмута та Лисичанська
- Українські захисники відбили російську атаку та знищили танк Т-90М у лісі на південь від Кремінної. Однак під час атаки ворогу вдалося просунутися вперед. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Діброва, Білогорівка, Федорівка, Васюківка
Бахмутський фронт
включає околиці Бахмута
- Противник просунувся на кілька метрів на південь від селища Залізнянське. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Ягідне, Берхівка, Бахмут, Курдюмівка
Місто Бахмут
місто Бахмут
- Найманцям "Вагнера" вдалося просунутися на південну околицю і вийти на край маріупольського кладовища. (джерело)
Авдіївський фронт
включає околиці Авдіївки
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Василівка, Новобахмутівка, Водяне, Невельське
Донецький фронт
включає центр і південну частину Донецької області
- Артилерія 79-ї десантно-штурмової бригади знищила російську колону, яка намагалася вийти на східну околицю Новомихайлівки. (джерело)
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Маринка
Запорізький фронт
включає Запорізьку область
Український Генеральний штаб повідомляє про відбиті атаки в околицях:
- Активності не зафіксовано.
Каланчацький фронт
включає лівий берег Дніпра на південь від Херсона та Каховки
- За останні 48 годин ситуація не змінилася.
Повна мапа
Повна оглядова карта поточної ситуації.
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Rybar and Weeb Union stated that Wagner had taken control of Berkhivka.
Now confirmed by Prigozhin
Deepstatemap even claims the Russians have captured both Berhivka and Yahidne. For the latter, I have doubts.
A worrisome development
Bakhmut CityWagner mercenaries managed to advance on the southern outskirts and reached the edge of Mariupol cemetery.
You must mean the cemetery of Bakhmut??
There’s a Mariupol Cemetery in southern Bakhmut.
https://www.google.com/maps/@48.5697636,37.9867721,16.79z
No, it’s called “Mariupol cemetery”.
It’s named Mariupol cemetery.
Well, right now it feels like mobilization didn´t produce any offensive capabilities that can produce considerable operational successes. Most mobilized are supposed to be at the frontline.
Who knows? They will keep pressing for sure but I am no longer convinced there will be a large-scale Russian offensive at all. Maybe the plan is now to wait for Ukraine’s spring/summer offensive in the hope of inflicting debilitating losses.
Hm, pretty impressive losses for this being no large scale offensive. If true, it is very good for Russia that they didn´t start a large scale offensive, because there wouldn´t be any mobilized left in spring. Since October Russian casualties are about 120000.
Do you have any valid source? Literally anything than Ukraines deliberate propaganda?
120k casualties since October??… yeah… sure…
And don’t forget Ukraine has flying laser pigs with nuclear capabilities that would literally melt the whole NATO army within a fraction of a nanosecond
I mean I don’t have any proof of that pig, but I mean I say that it exist and it’s pro-Ukraine so it’s true
Oh, please.
We’ve talk about it before. The number given by the Ukrainian MoD are reliable. Probably a bit over-estimated, but even if you remove 15 or 30% from their numbers, you’ll get way over 120k casualties since October.
But if you prefer another source, you have Volya Media. Their estimate at the end of January: 133k Russian losses (KIA, MIA and POW), 300K WIA.
Saying the Ukrainian MoD are reliable when they have a vested interest in inflating Russian causality and downplaying their own for morale reasons is wild.
The numbers given by the Ukrainian MoD are anything but accurate, don’t trust Ukraine nor Russia unless they’re admitting they lost something.
The numbers are accurate, since we can compare them to the visually confirmed losses. The ratio (2.4 for the the ukrainian MoD numbers) is only slightly higher than what the real losses are (which is about 1.5x or 2x visually confirmed losses, according to many military experts). In other words: real numbers are probably 15 to 35% lower than the numbers given by Ukrainian MoD.
A 15-35% inflation in numbers is the definition of “unreliable.”
It is internally contradictory to say “the numbers are accurate” and say “real numbers are probably 15 to 35% lower.”
A 15-35% inflation is nothing compared to usual wartime propaganda.
Russians claimed to have destroyed 1000 Bayraktar TB2 when only ~600 had been produced (and at most 100 were for Ukraine). They claim to have destroyed 240% of the delivered HIMARS (with 0 visually confirmed). Their claims are ridiculous.
Compared to that, Ukrainian MoD numbers ARE accurate.
120k seems high. Maybe if you include wounded. Check the mediazona website. They have been tracking confirmed KIA by name. So far 14k confirmed russian KIA. You can probably double that number because of DNR troops and those who’s bodies have not been recovered, but I think figures like 120k grossly overstate the actual situation.
there is my comment on the data collection and general methodology of that (and similar) sample(s), I do not nee the reason to repeat myself. Total loses (including KIA, MIA, WIA, WiAA and deserters) around ~100k at this point is not unrealistic. Vuhledar adventures makes that even pretty timid.
Where is your comment? The 120k are based on the 200k casualties estimated by the us and gb, with casualties defined as above. To think meduza can track anywhere near the real number in russia is a joke. Anyways, the rule of thumb in russias case is about trippling the number of dead to get total casualties.
I’ve found Mediazona to be most credible. 1) it’s an opposition website banned in Russia. 2) They track casualties by name. They have volunteers visiting cemetaries. That’s a lot of investigative reporting. I’d like to see what the US and GB Intel services are basing their estimates on.
on mathemathics and projection models just like we estimate e.g. earthquake victims. Media reports are focusing on singularities from very limited scope. Check what I linked, I won;t be writing the same over again.
Mediazona is credible at what they are doing, but their work cannot give you an estimate of the total Russian losses. Only a small portion of dead russians are reported by the newspapers.
Yes but I still wish there was a Ukrainian equivalent of Mediazone. This would at least allow to compare minimum confirmed losses on both sides – a starting point.
WIAA?
should be WIAO (Wounded In Area of Operation). This is different from WIA (W in Action) and consist mostly accidents (you’d be surprised) effects of negligence, corruption and criminal behaviour of personnel. It is a good indicator of the general state of the organisation and degree of its degradation. No Army in the World likes to share this number btw.
Your own source (Mediazona) basically says not to use it as a source for casualties. They literally explain their numbers aren’t even representative of reality: “These numbers do not REPRESENT the actual death toll”.They explain they are severely limited in obtaining information: “we can only review publicly available reports”.
Thus, it’s a MASSIVE underestimation.
MEDIAZONA : These numbers do not represent the actual death toll since we can only review publicly available reports including social media posts by relatives, reports in local media, and statements by the local authoritiesThe real death toll is much higher. Besides, the number of soldiers missing in action or captured is not known.
Use ORYX to calculate the average deaths, one tank = 3 dead
One tank = 3 deaths is sometimes an overestimation. I’ve seen so many videos showing a tank being hit and its crew members scrambling out.
I wrote it like that to compensate collateral damages coming from exploding tanks in the surroundings… but yes sometimes they succeed to escape, other are severly wounded, so maybe not dead but OUT OF COMBAT
Yes but with blast effect, they could dead 2 minutes later. Impossible to know .
But if you consider all elements, confirm losses, tactics use by russian, évolution of fighting capabilities, results of offensive, … Russian Kia/wia are really high . Cant support that rate with no New massiv mobilisation . And its already to late to form them better than the first mobiks .
I know the Russians want to increase the number of contract soldiers to 520,000. Not sure it is workable though.
Before the War they also wanted 400k. They never reach this number.
Back in August russian documents reveal about 49,000 combat dearh payments had been made to widows and families of those KIS.
EU army command estimate 60K KIA with 250K put out of service in total. Not clear what the last includes. Incapacitated would mean KIA, WIA, POW etc. “Incapable” could include withdrawn from battle for a number of other reasons.
Hard to understand the estimates when no specific data is provided. Russia admits to 9K, while reported civilian deaths at 3,4k. Both those numbers sound very low.
There is no such thing as ‘EU army command’.
The semi-intentional mess with RFAF is a result of general mess and corruption in RF and intention of hiding the outcomes. Some were demobilised (and remobilised or not), there are repetitive stories of refusing acknowledgement of participation in combat action of WIA (and promised payment avoidance etc.) RFGS numbers are just a ridiculous.
Sorry, misstakenly shortened it to army. 200 character limit.
The numbers were mentioned by Director General of the EU Military Staff (DGEUMS), Vice Admiral Hervé Bléjean.
https://news.yahoo.com/eu-assessed-november-russia-lost-152856708.html
Hard to imagine a new front opening if it’s based on fresh mobiks and with close to zero element of surprise. And the rumour of how many they actually gathered fluctuates between 100k to 500k..
At minimum they could keep on using those mobiks for replenishing losses, filling gaps or rotation to free up more experienced units.