Invasion Day 94 – Summary

The summary of the 94th day of Russian invasion to Ukraine, as of 22:00 – 28th of May 2022 (Kyiv time).

Day summary:

Ukrainian command admits the worsening situation in Donbas and hints at the possibility of withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the area of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk to avoid encirclement.

Russian troops are slowly, but surely pushing towards Lysychansk and Bakhmut, but remains unsuccessful on all other frontlines.

Kharkiv Frontline

includes the area of Kharkiv and Chuhuiv

partly sunny | ~20 °C

Shelling: Prudianka, Cherkaski Tyshky, Petrivka, Ternova, Korobochkyne, Chepil

Russian army have recently repaired (again) the railway connection to Kupiansk and resumed the supplies by rail.


Siverskyi Donets

includes the area of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut

rain showers | ~24 °C

Shelling:  Velyka Komyshuvakha, Nova Dmytrivka, Virnopillya, Studenok, Svyatohirsk, Bohorodychne, Dibrova, Ozerne

Ukrainian staff reported in the evening that Russian forces shelled Ukrainian positions at Velyka Komyshuvakha, indicating that Ukrainian troops regained control over the town recently.

Russian forces attacked Ukrainian positions at Dovhenke and Pasivka, but without success. However, the enemy was successful in Lyman and forced Ukrainian troops to retreat from the town.

In the direction of Sievierodonetsk, the enemy is attacking the outskirts of the city from the north and also Borivske and Oskolonivka in the south. Russian troops have captured the eastern outskirts of Ustynivka and are slowly advancing in the area of Toshkivka.

Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the area of Nahirne and pushed Russian troops a bit away from the main road.

In the direction of Bakhmut, Russian forces captured Midna Ruda and reached the outskirts of Klynove and Vidrodrzhennya. The enemy also assaulted Ukrainian positions at Novoluhanske and had partial success.


South-Eastern Front

includes Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblast

light rain | ~26 °C

Donetsk Oblast

Shelling: Novobakmutivka, Novoselivka Druha, Vesele, Avdiivka, Pisky, Krasnohorivka

Russian forces attempted to advance and gain new ground in the area of Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka, Pisky and Zolote Nyva. All the attacks were repelled.

Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack on the regional border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts and liberated Novopil and Novodarivka settlements.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast

Shelling: Kamyanske, Orikhiv, Huliaipole, Poltavka

There was no change on the ground in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.


Kherson Frontline

includes the vicinity of Kherson and Mykolaiv

partly sunny | ~23 °C

Mykolaiv Oblast

There was no change on the ground in Mykolaiv Oblast.

Kherson Oblast

Shelling: Posad-Pokrovske, Blahodatne, Zorya, Novopavlivka, Osokorivka, Novovorontsovka

Ukrainian forces have launched a counterattack in the north and pushed Russian troops across the Inhulets river to Bilohirka.

Recently released drone footage shows that Russian forces are in full control of Oleksandrivka settlement in the south.


Full map

The full overview map of current situation.

Maps and article are based on the following sources:

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, official channels of Ukrainian regional administrations, Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), press released of Russian Army, DPR and LPR (taken with a grain of salt)

Visit our Deployment map for updated interactive map of captured areas and Ukrainian units.

Make sure to follow us on Twitter & Telegram for the latest updates on Ukraine.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Augusto14

Here is a pro-russian summary of recent events. I am not going to evaluate all details. However, they, as some pro-Ukrainian observers, e.g. N. Ruser, show an Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the S. Donez around Zarychne, from Khotimlya to Buhaivka, which makes me think it could be real.

https://t.me/swodki/106158

Azog

I think somebody already compared the war in Ukraine with the Winter war. A different war fought with different armies. Still, now when we are at 94th day the comparison still holds. In 1939 Soviet Union attacked Finland anticipating quick and decisive victory, but initially it didn’t go well for the Soviets. Finns managed to organize stiff resistance, they were ambushing convoys and they firmly held the defense line. Other European countries provided help (including weapons) and volunteers to Finland, there were even plans to intervene directly. Only after a couple of months the Red Army broke through the main fortification line, the Finnish defense collapsed, Finns didn’t see any way to continue the fight and sued for peace. A lot of which (except for the last bit) resembles what we see in Ukraine today. Some say that the fall of Popasnaya is the turning point, akin to the fall of the Mannerheim line and after Azov’s surrender evacuation, the morale of the Ukrainian army is getting lower (and there are some signs of that indeed) and that the AFU is facing a catastrophe in Donbass.
There is one difference though. Zelensky categorically refuses to resume the peace talks. Arestovich even promises some grandiose counter offence later in summer. Looks like Putin doesn’t show any signs of stopping too. Even if Russia takes all the Donbass in the forthcoming weeks/months, given that the West can and apparently intends to supply Ukraine with everything, the war – in theory – can continue indefinitely. So it’s about who crumbles first – Ukrainian Army as a fighting force, Western support for Ukraine or Russia itself as a political entity.

Henry Whitworth

The war can’t continue indefinitely if Putin isn’t able to fully mobilize Russia for war because his army is going to fall apart. I honestly can’t believe people who are really watching this can’t see the signs of weakness and even desperation in their incredible shrinking offensive. I mean, it will become apparent enough in time but this just isn’t comparable to the Winter War because that was a couple of years of fighting against Stalin’s Soviet Union, not against Putin’s pathetic kleptocracy.

cwDeici

You make a strong point, but they still have their artillery. Once they lose that advantage I’ll agree.

Henry Whitworth

All they have is their artillery. Without a massive advantage in artillery the Russian army goes nowhere. Anything close to parity in artillery and they likely go backwards. Meanwhile the 155mm guns are just starting to arrive at the front. Ukraine has barely begun while Putin is running out of effective BTGs. Massing most of what can still go forward at one point in the line to fight a bloody, attritional battle for one actually rather insignificant city (apologies to Sievierdonetsk) is a clear sign of desperation, not strength. Ukraine is already taking advantage of the Russian concentration out there to start cutting into Russian lines elsewhere. Putin is seriously f’ed here.

Azog

well, apparently Putin decided mobilization isn’t needed at least not yet. We’ll see when one of the armies falls apart when it falls apart. Up until then it’s just a bunch of TG stories and speculations. From both sides by the way – but I must admit these days I’m seeing a lot more of Ukrainian POWs, than Russian POWs.

Henry Whitworth

Yeah, he has his economic draft and he believes that will be enough to keep putting bodies into the line. When people have no prospects in life offering them a bunch of dough to sign up looks pretty good. But this isn’t going to give him any kind of army to be able to fight this ascendant, vengeful, Ukrainian army that even now is gradually converting to NATO weapons. He’s just continuing to victimize his own people by sending them in there. His string will run out, probably faster than most people realize.

Azog

So, in your opinion, what kind of army – hypothetically – would be capable of destroying the vengeful and equipped with NATO wonder weapons Ukrainian army? I’d accept ‘nobody, it’s invincible!’ answer, just being curious

Erny72

I love your enthusiasm Herny.
Meanwhile, back in the real world:
https://rumble.com/v16gvyo-russian-ops-in-ukraine-west-changes-tune-as-russian-gains-continue.html
Note the references to the liberation of Popasnya and Liman which you won’t have heard much about in the fake news and take notice of the tactical advantage the Russian, Donetsk and Lugansk forces are exploiting after having penetrated of the line of contact that the Ulrops have spent the last eight years fortifying.
This post will take you around 30 minutes to listen to.
I’m not sure what you imagine to be these signs of weakness and desperation in the Russian army, however, you might have seen a number of videos being sent from AFU units in Donbass who are refusing to conduct military operations given their lack of rations, weapons, ammunition, reserves, etc and noted the protests going on in western Ukraine against their men being sent to Donbass when they volunteered in their local Territorial Defence forces and expected to garrison their home towns. The response from the clowns of Kiev threatening to execute deserters and authorizing unit commanders to shoot anyone attemtping to surrender sounds far more desperate than the Russian government NOT calling for a general mobilization (becasue they have no need to do so).
You now have western press and governments admitting that things aren’t going to plan in 404 and suggesting Kiev might consider negotiating with Russia (the most amusing version of that story has it that since the Ukrops are winning bigly, they should negotiate a peace with Russia before Putin goes fully feral and nukes Europe out of spite. Must have been the same fantasy script writer who writes for Ursula van der Crazy when she’s explaining that the EU must keep buying Russian oil so Russia can’t sell it elsewhere at a higher profit).

Henry Whitworth

Good comedy. Thanks for the effort.

Artur

By simply calling it a comedy you did not really give an answer to Erny72’s elaborated comment.

Henry Whitworth

Elaborate in the way a game of whack-a-mole is elaborate. I don’t have respect for people who believe and/or parrot Russian propaganda.

Dolgan

Winter war. 3month 12 days. 800 000 vs 340 000. 3000 tanks VS 30 tanks.

Ukrain war. 94 + days. 250 000 vs 300 000 (and i choose number very favorable to russia) .

Did you see the problem with your comparison ?

Ukraine is not finland. And russia 2022 is not soviet union 1939.

Azog

And I said different war and different armies. If the armies were the same I would have used some other adjective – similar or equal, not different.
Anyway, I see similar dynamics shared between these conflicts, one difference is a much greater role of the 3rd parties, in fact the external help and influence is what’s keeping Ukraine in the fight. I think it is reasonable to assume that without it Ukraine would have been more interested in peace talks. I am not saying it’s bad or good (I am sure there are more qualified people than me for that), just making a logical statement.

XPOINT

The initial failure of the Soviet-Finnish war, from a military point of view, stemmed from confusion in command, because Stalin launched a major purge of the army leadership before the war.
Every war takes its own shape, and logical reasoning is required if you are to prove victory.
In this war, the Russian army lost in the early stage, and his imitation object is likely to be the Gulf War, but in the second stage, the Russian army has revised its tactics in time.

Last edited 30 days ago by XPOINT
RutilantBossi

The Russian army has been willfully castrated by Putin as he needs an Army but he doesn’t want it to be strong enough to be able to oust him easily, Russia sucks because it is an authocracy, if Russia was a democracy like the west or better, it even joined the EU, it would be so stupidly rich and powerful it’s not even funny, but Russia decided to be fucking worthless to the world stage to follow their delusional dreams of grandiose imperialism

XPOINT

I think you are very brainwashed by the medias in your country, you should watch different news channels and connect with young people around the world.

There are more than 4 billion people in the world who don’t agree with you, don’t you need to take a minute to think about why?

I am very curious, I am learning where the Russian-phobia of Westerners comes from and why they are so blind. from a third party I think that there is no more way to slander a person than a Westerner does to a Russian. Even if any of them defended the Russians, they would be attacked immediately and violently.

I advise you calm down and think about why this all happened. Where do your emotions come from and is it normal?

Of course, if you’re from Poland or Lithuania, then I get it and I take my advice back.

Last edited 29 days ago by XPOINT
Noelle

because some of us are living too close to Russia (and her imperialistic disease) to feel safe – you know, to not be “protected by being invaded” or “force Russia to defend against you – meaning: being invaded”?
How do you think all these former vassals of USSR ran away to hide under that “bad Western skirt”? Maybe they had a reson?

XPOINT

You made it very clear, I can understand, thank you.

The Westerners wanted to keep Russia in a cage, they were almost done, they were about to put the last bar of iron to the cage. 

Repeatedly ignoring Russia’s warnings, it is unwise for Europeans to insist on doing so. It is a pity that Ukraine fell in the collision of plates.

Noelle

It’s not the ‘cage’built by the West – RUssia itself builds the one or rather particular strata of RUssian elites living in delusions from XIX century like ‘heartland theory’ – it wasn’t even a proper theory back then – just imperialism packaged as ‘science’. ‘NATO on borders’ was not a threat – to the contrary, for the 1st time in its existence Russia had safe western borders. ‘Ukraine somewhat more or less in EU’ meant in reality “even more money and influence on Europe”.
Russia is “surrounded by enemies” because it makes everyone around enemy. That’s the source of the problem. “Bear containment operation” is RUssia’s own doing.

RutilantBossi

There are a lot of differences tho, Finland had just 1/50th of the population of the USSR at the time, Ukraine has 1/3rd of modern Russia, Finland didn’t receive any outside help because Germany didn’t want to anger the soviets (after Molotov-Ribbentrop) and allies couldn’t acces the Baltic (also probably thought Finland was alligned with Berlin in some way) meanwhile Ukraine is receiving help from NATO.

Another difference was that Finland relied on the Karelian isthmus to counter the Soviets number advantage, once the isthmus was lost Russians could use all their fire power without bottlenecks, so it makes sense they would surrender after the fall of that, meanwhile Ukraine’s front would get smaller if Donbass falls.

Comparing Ukraine to Finland is wrong, an easy thought but wrong.

Azog

Upvoted and this is what I saying. Assuming Donbass is lost for Ukraine (not a fact yet, but likely). Now, if:
– Ukraine (both army and society) still can and wants to fight and sets up new defensive line(s), say along Dnepr river
– West still wants to provide help and is not distracted by some other interesting events
– Russia still stands and wants to go ahead
=> forever war
(I really hope not)

Andrej Uroš

I’ve predicted it correctly and said a few weeks ago the deciding battle will not be Sieverodonetsk and Lysichansk which will most likely innevitablty fall, but Slavyansk and Kramatorsk which the Ukrainian side have a better tactical advantage and position to defend. I think the battle for Slavyansk and Kramatosk will decide the fate of the entire Russian operation.

Dolgan

May be in one or two month. But at first they have to win this battle .

Andrej Uroš

Yes, however the recent advancements suggest they are closer to encircling Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk. Once that happens, Russian forces will innevitably take the cities as it will be very difficult for the Ukrainian side to get supplies, ammo into that location as witnessed in Mariupol. Also, there is no good road network for Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk heading west. Theres one heading north and one south-west towards Bekhmut but they are both controlled by Russian forces. Slavyansk and Kramatorsk have more routes west towards Dnipro and Zaporozhia, unfortunately north main road towards Izium is out of question but still many access roads available and a better location to fortify and establish supply lines. I think that having a good defence fortification requires you to have established adequate supply lines otherwise there is no chance of holding out or launching counter-offensive.

Dolgan

Since 2 or 3 days, no sign of russian advancements to encircling lysychansk. Its not an easy task. It could also turn like izium . The victory of russian is not sure.

If they do, russian will also be encircling by ukrain. If lysyshanks dont fall rapidly, it will cost a lot for russian.

For all of this, they need around 50 btg . I think they dont have the mass to do it without very big loss.

Andrej Uroš

We’l see. If you look at the language coming from Kiev and the US, they paint a very dire picture on the situation in Sieverodonetsk. Even during the siege of Mariupol, I don’t remember them being that pessimistic. The troops on the front line in the east also feel abandoned and wan’t to retreat which may tactically be the smarter thing to do. Retreat doesn’t mean defeat. This is a recent article from the Washington Post – https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

Artur

The battle for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk is not the decisive battle, but is the battle that would ultimately seal the Donbass question as these would be the last two cities to fall in Donbass. The capture of Bakhmut would maybe be the decisive battle as it would allow the Russians to attack Slavyansk and Kramatorsk from the Izium, Lysychansk and Bakhmut direction. If Bakhmut falls, it will be game over.

Henry Whitworth

So Ukraine is pressed at Sievierodonetsk and chooses to remain out in that salient and fight even though, from our armchairs, most people would pull them back across the river and trim those lines. Russia appears to have pulled BTGs from wherever they could to pour it on there. While most of the world sees that fight as somehow the defining moment where Russia “wins” something super important, Ukraine takes freshly trained and equipped forces and sends them… somewhere else. They choose to hit the Russian lines in places where they’re drawn too thin because of the buildup out east.

The drive towards the dam above Kherson MUST be a feint. There’s no way Ukraine could source that enough to really pull it off. But the fact that they’re moving that way and taking ground is going to force Russia to react again and draw away from their own offensive, just as Ukraine’s mini-offensive above Kharkiv drew forces away from the offensive out of Izium.

alex_andreevich

Russians don’t have a sufficient force there, though. Ukraine sent a large part of Polish T-72 with new units there (according to Russian sources).

Henry Whitworth

Yes, I’m speaking of the new battalion equipped with some of the T-72s from Poland. This was described in non-Russian sources as well which are the only sources I trust at all.

Needle

Thank you for your summary! Today is the 94th day.

The battle near Popasna is important but it cannot ignore the possibility that the Russians will cross the river and attack Siversk.  
The capture of Siversk would mean irreversible consequences and I think the Ukrainian army would defend it to the utmost to avoid a possible Russian cut the last road.  Even if it means reducing aid to the South.

RutilantBossi

I doubt they’ll manage to evacueate all those troops in time, the situation looks pretty bad and Ukraine should’ve pulled out earlier as soon as Russians managed to exploit to their advantage the propasna breakthrough, Ukraine should be extremely safe and avoid salients at all costs, time is on their side.

Fjose Smørhatt

Ukrainians should ask for big amounts of artillery and rocket systems from Western partners, then hold for as long as possible the cities and areas that the Russians want to capture. Withdraw when the cities or areas gets too destroyed, and then simply let the Russians take over. Then the Ukrainains could pound the hell out of Russians who now needs to hold that ground, using their own tactic against them, since the area is already destroyed. That could force the Russians to get out and go on the offensive. But here they where they would lose against superior Ukranians. An offensive-defensive strategy, if you will.

Marko Tadic

And how do you propose to defend those large artillery and MLRS systems from air strikes?

Dolgan

How they do since 3 month?

Nb : patriot is also in discussion.

Meha

With air defense, these are no longer the first days of aggression, but there are certainly fewer air attacks, so there are fewer planes and especially capable pilots.

cwDeici

Leaving a heavily dug in, small force with plentiful ammunition and supplies to fight to the death would be superior tactically (Mariupol really helped, but they left too many troops there and not enough munitions stockpiles), as it’d hold the Russians up a long time, but not sure about the PR effect.

alex_andreevich

Well, even if they are encircled, they can fight for this city for a long enough time. Moreover, the Russians are not able to close the encirclement from the north.

cwDeici

Exactly, those who speak of withdrawing to save the men have a point in preserving the army over the territory, but stalling for time is important too. The key is leaving the right number of troops (not too many, since you’re likely to lose them, but not too few, so they can hold out) in the most heavily dug in area, with a massive amount of munitions. Not sure whether these cities have sufficient infrastructure to use such delaying tactics.

One must of course keep in mind sacrificial tower plays are not popular, unless one manages to recover the besieged in time.